Since the heady days of 2008, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points.
Republican voters also are more attentive to the campaign, more enthusiastic about the election and more convinced that the outcome matters...
Consider the math: In 2008, when Obama carried the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats there swamped Republicans in party identification by 11 points. Now, that partisan edge has tightened to a statistically insignificant 2 points.
And the "enthusiasm gap" that helped fuel a Democratic victory last time has turned into a Republican asset.
Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats.
Among the most enthusiastic are some of the GOP's core voters: conservatives, middle-aged men and those 50 to 64 years old. Those who are least enthused include core Democratic groups that were critical to Obama's election in 2008, including minorities and younger voters....
In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%...
This time, Republicans are more likely to be paying a lot of attention than Democrats — 69% to 48% — and they are more likely to say the election's outcome will make a major difference to the course of the economy.
That doesn't necessarily mean they avidly support one of the GOP contenders. For many, it means they avidly oppose Obama....
But the nation's ideological makeup creates more stress for Democrats than Republicans. In the 12 swing states identified by USA TODAY, 44% of those surveyed are conservatives, more than double the 21% who call themselves liberal.
To win a majority, the GOP needs to attract the lion's share of conservatives plus only a fraction of the 35% who call themselves moderates. In contrast, the Democratic candidate has to claim the solid support not only of liberals but also most of the moderates...