Panic Over High Death Rate

[Mach]

The other posters have already identified the many errors in the OP.
It's a right wing strawman, "Democrats" have not been crying panic. Republicans on this forum though, we can quote being panicked about the economy "collapsing".
It's false equivalency in at least what...four ways? The chosen risks (Cars vs a virus), using total deaths, concluding it while the virus is just heating up, and while we're taking unprecedented measures to limit its spread.
I am really amazed to see all the usual suspects, right wing conservatives, so easily accept all the Fox news and Rush propaganda, during a health crisis, without even blinking.
I get the whole defend Trump against corruption...they like corruption...the hate Republics (as Republicans of course), I get that.

But party over lives During a crisis, it's really been astounding. I really do hope their actions don't lead to my death, but my local representatives drank the kool-aid and I seem to be at higher risk now thanks to them.

 

[Cardinal]

As I said, I listened to others. Not my theory.

You cited “herd immunity” as a possible explanation for the slowing of the infections in China. If you had researched “herd immunity,” the population of china and then used basic math to calculate percentages, you would know that herd immunity was a really goofy (and mathematically impossible) explanation for the slowing of China’s infection rates.

 

[Cardinal]

Except the rate for Covid 19 as presented by the media is extrordinarily high and is likely completely off base.

Your “hunch” isn’t a valid mathematical source.

 

[Ikari]

There has recently been a panic over the high mortality rate of victims of Covid-19. Any high death count is alarming.

Here are some other high mortality counts from this year to date as of March 24, 2020 at about 8:30 pm or so.

These other mortality count causes don't seem to attract much attention. Covid-19 is also listed for comparison. All of these causes are listed in the same section at Worldometer.

ALL of these numbers reflect this year only, year to date.

1. Abortions: 9,757,860
2. Smoking: 1,147,165
3. Road Traffic: 309,909
4. Suicide: 246,191
5. Regular Flu: 111,595
6. Covid-19: 18,810

Worldometer - real time world statistics

The national goal for the huge number of folks to shelter at home for a few weeks is to flatten the curve so our hospital system is not overrun with all of the cases front loaded during the course of the national epidemic.

When the shelter at home is ended, the pandemic around the world and the epidemic here in the US will not be over. In truth, it may get worse.

However, the hospital system we have will be able to handle the flattened curve demand. There may be drug therapies proven to distribute at that point and there may not be. Certainly, there will not be a vaccine.

This interruption in our lives is not to eradicate the disease from the US before Easter.

It is intended to slow the initial onslaught of Covid-19 victims needing care to a pace at which our hospital system might provide beds in hospitals for the newly struck victims as needed.

Just sayin'... Our social distancing will probably need to evolve as we incorporate a new normal into our lives at the time(s) we return to our normal lives.

I mean, 9/11 killed 3,000 people, 1/10th of that from car accidents in a year, and we started an Infinity War over that. We can maybe do a bit of social distancing for 18K. Though the world wide number is over 25K now, so we're almost up to 10 9/11's globally.

 

[Cardinal]

Herd immunity does work to some degree though, but I agree it's not the ideal model to implement (particularly since most healthcare systems can't handle the peak). Even the current social distancing models incorporate it as part of the larger strategy.

Well, technically speaking, herd immunity can be a great solution if you’re willing to adopt a “kill em all and let god sort it out” approach.

 

[Mach]

Except the rate for Covid 19 as presented by the media is extrordinarily high and is likely completely off base.

Based on what evidence?

 

[code1211]

This is what is what I am countering in your post.


ALL of these numbers reflect this year only, year to date.


Lumping COVID-19 in with these things serves what purpose other than to minimize the potential of this virus? The threat that COVID-19 brings has nothing in common with the threat of these things. None. So lumping them all together to show it hasn't killed enough only shows you don't understand why the numbers are low, or why it is different than suicide.

Did you visit the link I provided?

Worldometer grouped all of those other things together and they all cause large numbers of deaths as listed by Worldometer in Year to Date numbers.

If listing those things, including regular Flu, seems to you to lessen the threat posed by Coronavirus, then that is what it does for you.

The numbers are the numbers.

If you have a football team and they have a bunch of professionals who all previously had great stats, but can't win a game, you probably need to figure out why.

The numbers are the numbers.

If you have a disease that is not killing as many as other causes that are far more deadly, but the response to the lesser causation is paralyzing the world when the others did not, you probably need to figure out why.

Suicide is not a cause. It is a result. There are various emotional, physical and mental disorders that lead some to suicide. Hopelessness is the worst thing there is in a human being. It is the root cause of suicide. Hope can be removed by various things.

I have been upset or sad in my life, but never so bereft of hope that suicide was a serious consideration. It is something, thankfully, beyond my experience to grasp.

Regarding the potential, potential is what is causing the panic. Potential vs reality. At some point, we, as a country and as a world, will need to go back to work.

Regardless of the progress made on this at that time of return, the virus will not have been eradicated.

THAT is the point of my post. The are other things we live with every day that are more deadly than Covid-19. This will probably be just one more thing that we will need to accept as a thing we need to live with.

 

[Manc Skipper]

Did you visit the link I provided?

Worldometer grouped all of those other things together and they all cause large numbers of deaths as listed by Worldometer in Year to Date numbers.

If listing those things, including regular Flu, seems to you to lessen the threat posed by Coronavirus, then that is what it does for you.

The numbers are the numbers.

If you have a football team and they have a bunch of professionals who all previously had great stats, but can't win a game, you probably need to figure out why.

The numbers are the numbers.

If you have a disease that is not killing as many as other causes that are far more deadly, but the response to the lesser causation is paralyzing the world when the others did not, you probably need to figure out why.

Suicide is not a cause. It is a result. There are various emotional, physical and mental disorders that lead some to suicide. Hopelessness is the worst thing there is in a human being. It is the root cause of suicide. Hope can be removed by various things.

I have been upset or sad in my life, but never so bereft of hope that suicide was a serious consideration. It is something, thankfully, beyond my experience to grasp.

Regarding the potential, potential is what is causing the panic. Potential vs reality. At some point, we, as a country and as a world, will need to go back to work.

Regardless of the progress made on this at that time of return, the virus will not have been eradicated.

THAT is the point of my post. The are other things we live with every day that are more deadly than Covid-19. This will probably be just one more thing that we will need to accept as a thing we need to live with.

This minimising of a deadly pandemic is bizarre. Good old familiar "regular flu" is widespread throughout the population, and various strains can be active simultaneously with random immunity for some.This is not the same as a single novel infection, for which there is no vaccine, and 30 times more infectious than "regular flu"

 

[ttwtt78640]

Well, technically speaking, herd immunity can be a great solution if you’re willing to adopt a “kill em all and let god sort it out” approach.

Herd immunity is not akin to killing off the entire herd - it is letting natural forces remove (cull?) the most vulnerable (oldest and/or weakest) from it, thus leaving the remainder of the herd largely intact. That was essentially Lt. Gov. Abbott's "plan".

 

[goodbyte]

Well, technically speaking, herd immunity can be a great solution if you’re willing to adopt a “kill em all and let god sort it out” approach.

Got it. I see that you just needed a place to vent. But if not, I did like the visualizations from this Washington Post article because it's accessible and doesn't get lost in mathematical jargon:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

I agree that herd immunity should not be a recommended strategy in general.

 

[Cardinal]

Herd immunity is not akin to killing off the entire herd - it is letting natural forces remove (cull?) the most vulnerable (oldest and/or weakest) from it, thus leaving the remainder of the herd largely intact. That was essentially Lt. Gov. Abbott's "plan".

Yes, herd immunity is a fine solution if you don’t think human life has value.

 

[Casper]

There has recently been a panic over the high mortality rate of victims of Covid-19. Any high death count is alarming.

Here are some other high mortality counts from this year to date as of March 24, 2020 at about 8:30 pm or so.

These other mortality count causes don't seem to attract much attention. Covid-19 is also listed for comparison. All of these causes are listed in the same section at Worldometer.

ALL of these numbers reflect this year only, year to date.

1. Abortions: 9,757,860
2. Smoking: 1,147,165
3. Road Traffic: 309,909
4. Suicide: 246,191
5. Regular Flu: 111,595
6. Covid-19: 18,810

Worldometer - real time world statistics

The national goal for the huge number of folks to shelter at home for a few weeks is to flatten the curve so our hospital system is not overrun with all of the cases front loaded during the course of the national epidemic.

When the shelter at home is ended, the pandemic around the world and the epidemic here in the US will not be over. In truth, it may get worse.

However, the hospital system we have will be able to handle the flattened curve demand. There may be drug therapies proven to distribute at that point and there may not be. Certainly, there will not be a vaccine.

This interruption in our lives is not to eradicate the disease from the US before Easter.

It is intended to slow the initial onslaught of Covid-19 victims needing care to a pace at which our hospital system might provide beds in hospitals for the newly struck victims as needed.

Just sayin'... Our social distancing will probably need to evolve as we incorporate a new normal into our lives at the time(s) we return to our normal lives.

For one almost every one of those other killers is through choices, and the flu has a vaccine.
This virus has no vaccine and hence there is no choice other than isolation. And the number of deaths is not yet predictable, especially since we have very little screening.
I think you are guessing and hoping to convince yourself that this is no big deal. You are making a huge mistake, but hey go live your life as normal but please don't spread it to others.

 

[Casper]

When I Googled Coronavirus panic, I got 324,000,000 hits. Here's one.

Coronavirus Panic Buying Puts Grocery Workers and Shoppers at Risk of Infection — ProPublica

[h=2]Coronavirus Panic Buying Puts Grocery Workers and Shoppers at Risk of Infection[/h]Braving grocery store crowds when you’re already stocked up puts you at risk of getting sick or infecting others, including elderly workers and others who have no choice but to be there.
by Alexandra Zayas
March 16, 9:18 a.m. EDT
[h=2][/h]

Haven't been in a grocery store lately if you think there are crowds.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Yes, herd immunity is a fine solution if you don’t think human life has value.

Human life has value, but so does 'non-essential' work.

 

[code1211]

That's not panic over death rates. That's hoarding.

Are you seriously asserting that the hoarding of normal everyday items by otherwise normal people is unrelated to Coronavirus?

Coronavirus-fueled panic buying, hoarding cause record high egg prices

[h=1]Panic buying — and hoarding — drive higher prices for eggs, milk and other staples[/h]Donnelle Eller, Des Moines RegisterPublished 6:12 p.m. CT March 25, 2020

 

[motorpsychle]

If Abortion, smoking, traffic accident kill millions and allegedly no one is bothering, why does anyone even make a fuss out of terrorist attacks, that do just a fragment of loss in life?

 

[jet57]

Are you seriously asserting that the hoarding of normal everyday items by otherwise normal people is unrelated to Coronavirus?

Coronavirus-fueled panic buying, hoarding cause record high egg prices

[h=1]Panic buying — and hoarding — drive higher prices for eggs, milk and other staples[/h]Donnelle Eller, Des Moines RegisterPublished 6:12 p.m. CT March 25, 2020

Are you seriously asserting that the hoarding of normal everyday items by otherwise normal people is unrelated to Coronavirus?

Well that's something you just made up; I never said anything like that.

 

[code1211]

You cited “herd immunity” as a possible explanation for the slowing of the infections in China. If you had researched “herd immunity,” the population of china and then used basic math to calculate percentages, you would know that herd immunity was a really goofy (and mathematically impossible) explanation for the slowing of China’s infection rates.

Also from what I've heard, the data presented on this from China has been inaccurate since the start.

The Chi-Coms are not noted for their open and honest representation of much.

 

[code1211]

I mean, 9/11 killed 3,000 people, 1/10th of that from car accidents in a year, and we started an Infinity War over that. We can maybe do a bit of social distancing for 18K. Though the world wide number is over 25K now, so we're almost up to 10 9/11's globally.

The quote from A. de Tocqueville in your sig line is great.

The deaths listed from "Road Traffic" were only Year to Date at the time I posted. Actual road deaths will be lower than a straight multiplier of that number, but will still increase before year end. Few are driving in the greatest contributor country right now.

The reason I posted this was because at some point, we will need to put on regular street clothes again and go back to work.

It "feels" like there is a large part of the population that thinks we need to have eradicated the virus before we can end the self imposed quarantines.

When Trump very astutely noted that the virus will not be eradicated before a return to work is started, some raving lunatics in the press reflexively attacked him for saying it.

Of course, they ALWAYS attack Trump, so this means nothing to anyone who still has at least one firing synapse.

The numbers from Worldometer provide a framework to place this virus crisis into perspective.

Another tool for perspective is the US Swine Flu Virus that infected about 60 million and killed about 12,500.

For perspective, the US Coronavirus Infections are about 105 Thousand with a mortality count of 1704. Respectively: 0.175% and 13%.

I have a feeling we are tracking this virus outbreak better than we tracked the Swine Flu and that may screw the numbers and reduce any value of comparison.

 

[code1211]

This minimising of a deadly pandemic is bizarre. Good old familiar "regular flu" is widespread throughout the population, and various strains can be active simultaneously with random immunity for some.This is not the same as a single novel infection, for which there is no vaccine, and 30 times more infectious than "regular flu"

All good points.

Do you feel the virus must be eradicated entirely with a viable vaccine emptied universally before a return to normal, or something that passes for normal, is allowed?

If not, at what stage of this is a return to a new normal justified?

 

[Hawkeye10]

All good points.

Do you feel the virus must be eradicated entirely with a viable vaccine emptied universally before a return to normal, or something that passes for normal, is allowed?

If not, at what stage of this is a return to a new normal justified?

We need to not swamp our super expensive crap medical system, especially so long as massive mismanagement makes it impossible to supply reasonable PPE.

Political systems die at the hand of this level of failure to perform.

 

[code1211]

For one almost every one of those other killers is through choices, and the flu has a vaccine.
This virus has no vaccine and hence there is no choice other than isolation. And the number of deaths is not yet predictable, especially since we have very little screening.
I think you are guessing and hoping to convince yourself that this is no big deal. You are making a huge mistake, but hey go live your life as normal but please don't spread it to others.

It seems likely that the MLB season will not occur this year. The Olympics were postponed to next year.

Here in Indy, the Brickyard 400, the Indianapolis 500 and the Grand Prix have been re-scheduled or otherwise re-jiggered.

The reality is that we will not have an immunity to this thing in the short term future and that life goes on.

At what level of partial eradication of the virus do you feel we need to be in order for people to go back to work, to church or to school?

It has to happen at some point and it's likely that this virus will be with us as are other strains of flu going forward forever.

When does the self quarantine end? Are you recommending that we accept the fact that we will never leave our homes again?

 

[code1211]

Haven't been in a grocery store lately if you think there are crowds.

As a matter of fact, I have been in a grocery store lately. Aisles seem to be about as full as they always are. Shelves seem to be empty compared to normal pre-virus stocking.

Pictures of shoppers wheeling carts of toilet paper out of stores were pretty common in the news a few days back.

The good news is that I get to try out items that I would normally not consider because what I wanted is already gone. So, there's that...

 

[code1211]

Well that's something you just made up; I never said anything like that.

Your post:

"Quote Originally Posted by jet57 View Post
That's not panic over death rates. That's hoarding."

Maybe you can help me out by clarifying whatever it is you meant.

 

[JackA]

Of the list of events that led to death, the valid comparisons are traffic deaths and the flu.

The mortality rate for traffic accidents is currently 14 times less than cv19, and I can’t tell you exactly what that is for the flu because I don’t know how many Americans have been infected with it this year, but going with the annual average of .1, that makes it 13 times less deadly than cv19.

And the least valid are abortions. But traffic deaths really don't belong as a comparison either, having nothing in common with a communicable illness.