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True, but who knows how independents will view Trump in 2020? Heck, who knows how the GOP will view him? If Obama ran for re-election in 2010,2011, 2014 or 2015, he would have been defeated. As luck would have it, Obama regained popularity in 2012 enough for him to win by 4 points, although he did lose the independent vote 51-47. But the Democrats had the larger base, so Obama could afford to lose independents as long as he kept it close. He succeeded.
I firmly believe if the Democrats had run someone else other than Hillary, they would be sitting in the Oval Office today. Back in 2012 the Democratic base made up 35% of the electorate while the GOP base was at 30%. Today the Democratic base is down to 30% while the GOP base has dropped to 26%. Dissatisfaction with both parties galore. Gridlock, polarization, candidates no one likes outside of their core supporters, all have contributed to the frustration of the average American. I would say when the two parties nominate candidates with only a 34% and 38% favorable ratings, something is terribly wrong with our two party system.
Here's the difference between Obama and Trump. Obama won in 2008 with a mandate. Bush, during the end of his second term, was extremely unpopular. Obama being elected was a repudiation of Bush, no matter how you slice it. In an extremely divided ERA of politics, Obama soundly defeated McCain in the electoral college, and received the most votes out of any presidential candidate ever. Like Obama or not, his victory in 2008 was impressive. He entered office a popular president. On the other hand, while Obama often had bad approval ratings, he left office pretty popular, certainly more popular than his predecessor. How much that had to do with how bad the alternatives were (Clinton, Trump), and how the voters perceived the Job Obama did is mostly opinion based, IMO. Regardless, Trump was replacing a guy who left office vastly more popular than the guy Obama replaced. Trump, and Clinton for that matter, had historically low approval ratings. Trump won in 2016, but in a much smaller margin than Obama did in 2008. Trump doesn't have much of a mandate, IMO, and I suspect many who voted for him did it because they disliked Clinton more. That's not a good thing, because if Trump doesn't try to appeal to voters outside his core base, then he loses. Sure, Trump has his base, but his base is not enough, IMO, to win him elections. Those people who voted for him because he's not Hillary could EASILY abandon him if the Democrats field a better candidate in 2020, because they were never entirely behind Trump's agenda in the first place.
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