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I don't have a dog in this hunt...BUT for the record here is my latest graph from Worldometers dataset:
- As of this writing, the 7 day moving average of the daily rate of death is about 1,000, which is less than 1/2 the peak of 2200 one month ago.
- The red-dashed line is the current linear trend line from the peak of the moving average to present, extrapolated forward.
- Because COVID death reporting is weekly cyclical the ONLY statistic worth noting is that of the 7-day moving average. (Tuesday, Wed, and Thursday usually being the peak days).
- The "plus" signs are the actual data points for each day, which obviously fluctuates - again, the 7-day average smooths this natural cycle out.
IF trends hold, by June 1st the moving average will be down to 800 deaths per day, and falling.
I do not believe, nor does the IHME it would seem, believe that this overall decline will be countered by hotspots in other states.
- As of this writing, the 7 day moving average of the daily rate of death is about 1,000, which is less than 1/2 the peak of 2200 one month ago.
- The red-dashed line is the current linear trend line from the peak of the moving average to present, extrapolated forward.
- Because COVID death reporting is weekly cyclical the ONLY statistic worth noting is that of the 7-day moving average. (Tuesday, Wed, and Thursday usually being the peak days).
- The "plus" signs are the actual data points for each day, which obviously fluctuates - again, the 7-day average smooths this natural cycle out.
IF trends hold, by June 1st the moving average will be down to 800 deaths per day, and falling.
I do not believe, nor does the IHME it would seem, believe that this overall decline will be countered by hotspots in other states.