I find it interesting how the left focuses on the House elections and not the overall elections in 2018 where Republicans gained Senate seats. yes, the turnout was greater for Democrats than Republicans in 2018 but only in various districts around the country. On statewide elections with national consequences Republicans still maintained control and will again because when the chips are down the American people will vote their own best interests which are the pocketbook issues. Radicals will appeal to each other and make others believe they are the majority when the reality remains we have a silent majority that will never turn this country over to the radicals that the Democrats are shoving down the throats of the American people.
Why can't the radical left give us a valid reason to vote FOR a Democrat as what would they do to benefit the majority of the American people?
Reason? The first midterm is usually a referendum on the president. The nationwide vote in house races was 53.4% for Democratic congressional candidates vs. 44.8% for the Republicans. The senate had races in only 34 states vs. the 50 for the house. Although the GOP picked up two seats, the overall vote in those 34 states was Democratic senators 59.3% to the GOP senate candidates 39.1%,
I don't think the popular vote means much in the senate contests as you pointed out, it is who wins each state that counts. But the overall House vote which is nationwide I do think means a lot. Especially in looking at how independents voted. In 2016 Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party. In 2016 the Republican congressional candidates won independents 51-47. But in 2018, independents went Democratic 54-42.
I think those independent numbers are telling. In 2016 you had 12% of independents who voted against both Trump and Hillary. 12% who disliked both major party candidates. In 2018 if you take the 42% Hillary received, add the 12% of independents who voted against both major party candidates, you have the exact 54% of independents who voted Democratic in 2018. I think that interesting.
For Trump in 2020, the question is how will those 12% of independents who disliked both major party candidates, voted against both, didn't want neither one vote in 2020? I think we can get an idea by looking at the Generic presidential candidate vote. Question 56. Independents state they'll vote for the Democratic candidate over Trump 31-25 with 18% stating it depends. I take that to mean their vote depends on whom the Democrat's nominate.
Then go to Question 77, Trump running for reelection. 28% of Independents say he should, 49% say no with 23% not sure.
finally question 69, likability. Since usually a voter, independents, the non-affiliated usually don't vote for a candidate they dislike, you have 22% of independents say they like Trump. 45% say they dislike Trump along with 12% who neither like or dislike and 22% not sure.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fs1r87zj1f/econTabReport.pdf
These numbers only give you an idea where things stand today, not in 2020. But not good numbers for Trump. I think they are saying Trump isn't going to win independents as he did in 2020. But these numbers are dynamic, they change constantly. I know that roughly on average 90% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats vote for their party's candidate. This is why I study independents. The Democrats have the larger base, they don't have to win independents, just keep their vote close. Republicans do, without winning independents they lose the election.
Although still very early, I'd say at this point in time, Trump is in trouble among the independent voter. Sure Trump won 46% of them in 2016, but 54% voted against him counting the 42% Hillary received along with the 12% who voted against both candidates. Time will tell, we'll know more come December or January of next year. The numbers will be more firmer.
