Unskewed Polling [W:536]

[Conservative]

So, jobs aren't important anymore? And health care reform was never important? ok....

Ask "your" President who gave us a Stimulus plan that failed and then followed that failure with Obamacare, another failure, Four More Years!! Four more years!!

 

[Sgt Meowenstein]

Ask "your" President who gave us a Stimulus plan that failed and then followed that failure with Obamacare, another failure, Four More Years!! Four more years!!

"Your" president? So, you're not an American citizen? Then why should I give a crap about your opinion of him?

 

[Conservative]

"Your" president? So, you're not an American citizen? Then why should I give a crap about your opinion of him?

"Your" means IMO you supported and voted for this empty suit. Unfortunately he is my President but I didn't vote for him because of his resume and won't vote for him because of his record. However if he does win I will be one of those 53% paying the debt service on the debt generated as well asn funding the social programs that fund people who can but choose not to work. Seems there are a lot of lazy people out there including our President.

 

[pbrauer]

Most people know that the sample breakdown impacts the polling results. Here is a poll source that unskews the polling process.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

My opinion this is closer to reality and better reflects projected turnout.

Meet Dean Chambers, The Virginia Republican Who Is ‘Unskewing’ The Polls | TPM2012
:mrgreen:

...Chambers’ project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.” An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted this month showed Obama up over Romney 49 percent to 48 percent. “Unskewed,” however, after applying Rasmussen’s numbers on party ID, Romney leads Obama 52-45 in the poll. It’s like magic. But Chambers insists he isn’t “changing” or “making up” data. “The only thing I’m doing is weighting.”

But that’s exactly what most pollsters don’t do. “We don’t have any preconceived notions about the party breakdown of a poll before we conduct it. The only things we make any adjustments for are gender, race, and age,” Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. “It makes sense that as support for Obama increases, more people also identify themselves as Democrats. I know conservatives want to think it’s more Democrats in the poll causing Obama to do better, but it’s actually Obama doing better causing more Democrats in the poll.”

“The reality is that (Republicans are) losing, they can’t accept it, and they’re going to find some reason to dismiss every poll that makes them unhappy no matter what its composition is,” Jensen added. “This isn’t really about Party ID, it’s about hardcore denial.”...
​

 

[jerry7]

Meet Dean Chambers, The Virginia Republican Who Is ‘Unskewing’ The Polls | TPM2012
:mrgreen:

...Chambers’ project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.” An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted this month showed Obama up over Romney 49 percent to 48 percent. “Unskewed,” however, after applying Rasmussen’s numbers on party ID, Romney leads Obama 52-45 in the poll. It’s like magic. But Chambers insists he isn’t “changing” or “making up” data. “The only thing I’m doing is weighting.”

But that’s exactly what most pollsters don’t do. “We don’t have any preconceived notions about the party breakdown of a poll before we conduct it. The only things we make any adjustments for are gender, race, and age,” Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. “It makes sense that as support for Obama increases, more people also identify themselves as Democrats. I know conservatives want to think it’s more Democrats in the poll causing Obama to do better, but it’s actually Obama doing better causing more Democrats in the poll.”

“The reality is that (Republicans are) losing, they can’t accept it, and they’re going to find some reason to dismiss every poll that makes them unhappy no matter what its composition is,” Jensen added. “This isn’t really about Party ID, it’s about hardcore denial.”...
​

[/QU
What is the significance of Jensen's opinion as opposed to Chambers? And what effect did Axelrod summoning Gallup to the White House to discuss their methodology have on the huge shift in poll results? Was it the law suit that the Justice Department joined against Gallup right after Gallup said they weren't going to change? Funny how all the polls took a dramatic turn in Obama's direction right afterwards.

 

[Conservative]

Meet Dean Chambers, The Virginia Republican Who Is ‘Unskewing’ The Polls | TPM2012
:mrgreen:

...Chambers’ project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.” An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted this month showed Obama up over Romney 49 percent to 48 percent. “Unskewed,” however, after applying Rasmussen’s numbers on party ID, Romney leads Obama 52-45 in the poll. It’s like magic. But Chambers insists he isn’t “changing” or “making up” data. “The only thing I’m doing is weighting.”

But that’s exactly what most pollsters don’t do. “We don’t have any preconceived notions about the party breakdown of a poll before we conduct it. The only things we make any adjustments for are gender, race, and age,” Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. “It makes sense that as support for Obama increases, more people also identify themselves as Democrats. I know conservatives want to think it’s more Democrats in the poll causing Obama to do better, but it’s actually Obama doing better causing more Democrats in the poll.”

“The reality is that (Republicans are) losing, they can’t accept it, and they’re going to find some reason to dismiss every poll that makes them unhappy no matter what its composition is,” Jensen added. “This isn’t really about Party ID, it’s about hardcore denial.”...
​

There is one poll that matters and that poll is November 6. If Obama wins, the country loses and I along with the other 53% that pays FIT will be funding the country for another four years and paying the debt service on the massive debt Obama is running up. Results don't seem to matter to liberals who have no problem being used by this incompetent President. You just don't seem to have the ability to understand what Obama is doing to this country and if you don't soon, you are going to be sorry and aren't going to recognize it.

 

[Sgt Meowenstein]

"Your" means IMO you supported and voted for this empty suit. Unfortunately he is my President but I didn't vote for him because of his resume and won't vote for him because of his record. However if he does win I will be one of those 53% paying the debt service on the debt generated as well asn funding the social programs that fund people who can but choose not to work. Seems there are a lot of lazy people out there including our President.

The president is lazy. Right. President Harvard Law review. Harvard graduate. Community organizer. IL state senator. US senator. US president.

What a lazy piece of ****.

 

[Fisher]

The Obama campaign press secretary just dodged the internal polling question on OutFront on CNN saying that they are up is some and it was close in others but that didn't matter because they were focusing on 7 states, which makes me think their internals are telling a different story too or else they would have played up their lead IMO.

 

[winston53660]

There is one poll that matters and that poll is November 6. If Obama wins, the country loses and I along with the other 53% that pays FIT will be funding the country for another four years and paying the debt service on the massive debt Obama is running up. Results don't seem to matter to liberals who have no problem being used by this incompetent President. You just don't seem to have the ability to understand what Obama is doing to this country and if you don't soon, you are going to be sorry and aren't going to recognize it.

Pffft to funny the bush tax cuts created the 47%.

 

[Conservative]

The president is lazy. Right. President Harvard Law review. Harvard graduate. Community organizer. IL state senator. US senator. US president.

What a lazy piece of ****.

So we have been told and of course you believe what we are told but only if it comes from some leftwing source. So much for your credibility? How did he get into Harvard? Who paid his way? what did he publish while there? Where are the transcript of his grades? amazing how some people want badly to buy what they are told from this empty suit.

 

[Conservative]

Pffft to funny the bush tax cuts created the 47%.

Never saw Bush promote class warfare and demonize those that are paying the FIT, please post data to refute that?

 

[winston53660]

Never saw Bush promote class warfare and demonize those that are paying the FIT, please post data to refute that?

What data do you want in response to your red herring

 

[Conservative]

What data do you want in response to your red herring

Any data that you can come up with to justify the Obama results and his demonization of those that are paying all the FIT in this country by claiming they aren't paying their fair share?

 

[winston53660]

Any data that you can come up with to justify the Obama results and his demonization of those that are paying all the FIT in this country by claiming they aren't paying their fair share?

Well I guess one could look at the income divide that is like the Grand Canyon now. Or one could look at the total tax burden and how regressive taxation has an impact

 

[Misterveritis]

i hate to agree but AdamT is right, the election is lost

True. Fortunately the one term Marxist is on his way out. Be of good cheer.

 

[Conservative]

Well I guess one could look at the income divide that is like the Grand Canyon now. Or one could look at the total tax burden and how regressive taxation has an impact

Of course you can and do what liberals always do, blame someone else for poor choices made. Seems you believe it is the govt. role to take from those evil rich people and give it to others to bring their income up. Sound like a successful economic strategy to you?

 

[Misterveritis]

I don't know how they unskewed the polls of the major networks... I wish there was more on their method.

Even as a big Mitt Romney supporter, I think the results of those unskewed polls are too far in Romney's favor.

However, I think the larger point to be made is that all of the polls from the mainstream media outlets are skewed in favor of the Democratic Party, given the higher number of polled Democrats, despite the national majority of conservative voters. That doesn't accurately reflect the views of the voting populace.

These are links from your source where two Democratic pollers admit that their polls are skewed towards the Democrats...

Is the latest Washington Post/ABC poll skewed for Obama? - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

Commentary: The mainstream media polls are skewed for a reason - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com


That's the major point of the issue... Not to trust any of the polls released by major media networks... whose agenda places their polls several points to the left...


Honestly... I think the real status of the election is somewhere between what Gallup and Rasmussen have, +/- 2-3 pts... which is about a dead heat, with Obama maybe having a slight lead, because of recent polls in swing states...


This is still going to come down to the debates, any potential october surprises, and turnout on voting day...

I signed up to make calls. I will start tomorrow.

 

[winston53660]

Of course you can and do what liberals always do, blame someone else for poor choices made. Seems you believe it is the govt. role to take from those evil rich people and give it to others to bring their income up. Sound like a successful economic strategy to you?

Simms you think the poor owe the rich something

 

[Sgt Meowenstein]

So we have been told and of course you believe what we are told but only if it comes from some leftwing source. So much for your credibility? How did he get into Harvard? Who paid his way? what did he publish while there? Where are the transcript of his grades? amazing how some people want badly to buy what they are told from this empty suit.

You should listen to yourself. I mean, it may sound great in your head, but in reality, it just sounds dumb. The president's academic records? What are you talking about?

 

[Misterveritis]

Simms you think the poor owe the rich something

The better question is "do you think the rich owe the poor something?"

 

[Flyersfan314]

That is your opinion and noted. It doesn't appear that leadership is something you understand. Reagan got us out of a worse recession in less than 4 years, had 7.5% GDP in 1984 vs the 1.3% today. Interesting how forgiving liberals are when one of their own generates terrible economic results.

With increased spending and and a Democratic congress that worked with him. Also raising taxes on those in the lower brackets. I like a lot of Reagan's policies. As I have said before the middle class should pay more taxes and corporations should get a tax cut. Remember it says slightly liberal under my name.

 

[winston53660]

The better question is "do you think the rich owe the poor something?"

Maybe some cake to eat:roll:

 

[Conservative]

With increased spending and and a Democratic congress that worked with him. Also raising taxes on those in the lower brackets. I like a lot of Reagan's policies. As I have said before the middle class should pay more taxes and corporations should get a tax cut. Remember it says slightly liberal under my name.

Reagan started out with a Congress that said his proposals were DOA, so he went to the American people, sold his program to the people, and that changed the attitude in Congress. Liberals to this day hate Reagan because they have never had the popularity or the ability to get things done like he did. Reagan cut Income Tax rates on all taxpayers and never raised the rates on the lower brackets. He did raise use taxes like FICA, excise taxes, among others but if you didn't use the items taxed you didn't pay the tax. He had the leadership skills Obama can only dream about.

 

[winston53660]

Reagan started out with a Congress that said his proposals were DOA, so he went to the American people, sold his program to the people, and that changed the attitude in Congress. Liberals to this day hate Reagan because they have never had the popularity or the ability to get things done like he did. Reagan cut Income Tax rates on all taxpayers and never raised the rates on the lower brackets. He did raise use taxes like FICA, excise taxes, among others but if you didn't use the items taxed you didn't pay the tax. He had the leadership skills Obama can only dream about.

Simply amazing if one doesn't want to work they don't pay the FICA tax:roll:

 

[Flyersfan314]

Reagan started out with a Congress that said his proposals were DOA, so he went to the American people, sold his program to the people, and that changed the attitude in Congress. Liberals to this day hate Reagan because they have never had the popularity or the ability to get things done like he did. Reagan cut Income Tax rates on all taxpayers and never raised the rates on the lower brackets. He did raise use taxes like FICA, excise taxes, among others but if you didn't use the items taxed you didn't pay the tax. He had the leadership skills Obama can only dream about.

Tax Reform Act Of 1986 Definition | Investopedia

"and raised the bottom tax rate from 11% to 15%"

I still love you though Conservative. I hope my love cools your hot angry heart.