Unskewed Polling [W:536]

[Conservative]

Most people know that the sample breakdown impacts the polling results. Here is a poll source that unskews the polling process.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

My opinion this is closer to reality and better reflects projected turnout.

 

[AdamT]

Most people know that the sample breakdown impacts the polling results. Here is a poll source that unskews the polling process.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

My opinion this is closer to reality and better reflects projected turnout.

ROFLMAO

Wishful thinking isn't an accepted polling practice.

 

[betaiso]

i hate to agree but AdamT is right, the election is lost

 

[Conservative]

ROFLMAO

Wishful thinking isn't an accepted polling practice.

It is going to be a long night on Nov. 6 for the supporters of the welfare, class warfare king.

 

[Conservative]

i hate to agree but AdamT is right, the election is lost

LOL, if the election is lost and you are a conservative then the country is lost. We cannot afford four more years of Obama. In the Obama supporter world, results don't matter.

 

[AdamT]

It is going to be a long night on Nov. 6 for the supporters of the welfare, class warfare king.

I know! Poor Mitt's magic underwear will be drenched in tears.

 

[Dwight]

It is going to be a long night on Nov. 6 for the supporters of the welfare, class warfare king.

I predict a long day on Nov. 7 as you sit through Remedial Math class dreaming of the day you can victoriously raise over your head your GED certificate.

 

[Conservative]

I know! Poor Mitt's magic underwear will be drenched in tears.

I seem to be having a hard time getting you to admit that you are supporting Obama even though your posts indicate that support. I doubt seriously that someone as intelligent as you think you are could ever vote for four more years of the Obama record.

 

[Anagram]

Most people know that the sample breakdown impacts the polling results. Here is a poll source that unskews the polling process.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

My opinion this is closer to reality and better reflects projected turnout.

I disagree with this. People try to unskew the polls by wrongly weighting for party ID every election and they are always wrong. Polls are usually right, or at least averages of a ton of polls are usually right.

 

[Conservative]

I predict a long day on Nov. 7 as you sit through Remedial Math class dreaming of the day you can victoriously raise over your head your GED certificate.

LOL, yep, that would be me, a GED certificate but more importantly a total failure in life. Wonder why I don't support Obama with that kind of record? Hmmm, after all, I must be part of the welfare class dependent on the intelligent class that apparently you belong to.

 

[Conservative]

I disagree with this. People try to unskew the polls by wrongly weighting for party ID every election and they are always wrong. Polls are usually right, or at least averages of a ton of polls are usually right.

You are going to see the polls tighten as we get closer to November 6 as those showing the wide gap now are going to try and recapture some credibility. I believe the American electorate will actually pay attention to the Obama results and fire him on November 6. Those that don't pay attention to results really are too stupid to vote IMO or are leftwing radicals trying to change America for their own personal gain.

 

[Anagram]

You are going to see the polls tighten as we get closer to November 6 as those showing the wide gap now are going to try and recapture some credibility. I believe the American electorate will actually pay attention to the Obama results and fire him on November 6. Those that don't pay attention to results really are too stupid to vote IMO or are leftwing radicals trying to change America for their own personal gain.

Maybe the people not paying attention right now will dramatically vote for Romney, in fact I hope they will, but I believe the polls tell an accurate picture of the current state of the race.

 

[Conservative]

Maybe the people not paying attention right now will dramatically vote for Romney, in fact I hope they will, but I believe the polls tell an accurate picture of the current state of the race.

How can you say that when the samples are so skewed? Rasmussen for example has 39% Democrat, 36% Republican and shows Obama with a 1% lead. Likely voters vs Registered voters are more credible and based upon historical data. I don't believe that Democrats are as motivated as they were in 2008 nor will Obama get the Independent vote this time around. His record is there for all to see and it is that record that he is running from

 

[Anagram]

How can you say that when the samples are so skewed? Rasmussen for example has 39% Democrat, 36% Republican and shows Obama with a 1% lead. Likely voters vs Registered voters are more credible and based upon historical data. I don't believe that Democrats are as motivated as they were in 2008 nor will Obama get the Independent vote this time around. His record is there for all to see and it is that record that he is running from

Right, but you can't really trust the Party ID numbers in a poll. Because most pollsters ask the question as "What Party do you consider yourself a part of?" rather than their official registration, the results for the question tend to correspond to who's actually leading in the poll, not the other way around. In 2004 Democrats were complaining about the same thing on polls that had Bush ahead, with better than average Republican ID numbers, but those same polls ended up being more accurate in the end. It's why you can't just retroactively weight polls by partisan affiliation, because it isn't an immutable trait like weight, class, age, or gender.

Rasmussen by the way, does weight their polls by party ID, and I believe is giving Republicans an edge in Party ID by 2-3% right now.

 

[AdamT]

I seem to be having a hard time getting you to admit that you are supporting Obama even though your posts indicate that support. I doubt seriously that someone as intelligent as you think you are could ever vote for four more years of the Obama record.

You didn't realize that I support Obama? Really?

 

[Conservative]

You didn't realize that I support Obama? Really?

Although your posts are sure pro Obama you have never admitted that you were voting for Obama. I have been known to over estimate someone else's intelligence which maybe true in your case

 

[Dwight]

You are going to see the polls tighten as we get closer to November 6 as those showing the wide gap now are going to try and recapture some credibility.

They are going to tighten? That meaning reporting a slightly closer race.

So what are you going to do with your numbers to capture some credibility? ('recapture' would imply you ever had any )

 

[Conservative]

They are going to tighten? That meaning reporting a slightly closer race.

So what are you going to do with your numbers to capture some credibility? ('recapture' would imply you ever had any )

You would have a little more credibility if you stopped with the personal attacks. The polls showing a wide gap now are the ones that have zero credibility and those are the polls that are going to narrow. The Obama supporter will never look at the actual Obama results but I don't believe the turnout from the Obama base will be anywhere near what it was in 2008 and that doesn't bode well for Obama which is a good thing

 

[IndepCentristMA]

Most people know that the sample breakdown impacts the polling results. Here is a poll source that unskews the polling process.

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

My opinion this is closer to reality and better reflects projected turnout.

I don't know how they unskewed the polls of the major networks... I wish there was more on their method.

Even as a big Mitt Romney supporter, I think the results of those unskewed polls are too far in Romney's favor.

However, I think the larger point to be made is that all of the polls from the mainstream media outlets are skewed in favor of the Democratic Party, given the higher number of polled Democrats, despite the national majority of conservative voters. That doesn't accurately reflect the views of the voting populace.

These are links from your source where two Democratic pollers admit that their polls are skewed towards the Democrats...

Is the latest Washington Post/ABC poll skewed for Obama? - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

Commentary: The mainstream media polls are skewed for a reason - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com


That's the major point of the issue... Not to trust any of the polls released by major media networks... whose agenda places their polls several points to the left...


Honestly... I think the real status of the election is somewhere between what Gallup and Rasmussen have, +/- 2-3 pts... which is about a dead heat, with Obama maybe having a slight lead, because of recent polls in swing states...


This is still going to come down to the debates, any potential october surprises, and turnout on voting day...

 

[Dwight]

The polls showing a wide gap now are the ones that have zero credibility and those are the polls that are going to narrow.

So you are going to adjust your zero credibility wide gaps to something smaller then?

 

[AdamT]

How can you say that when the samples are so skewed? Rasmussen for example has 39% Democrat, 36% Republican and shows Obama with a 1% lead. Likely voters vs Registered voters are more credible and based upon historical data. I don't believe that Democrats are as motivated as they were in 2008 nor will Obama get the Independent vote this time around. His record is there for all to see and it is that record that he is running from

You are in for a rude awakening. On a timely note, Nate Silver has gone back and looked at all of the available data going back to 1938 to see how accurate the polling data from this time in the cycle was at predicting the eventual winner. As it turns out, polls taken at this time have called the winner 17 out of 19 times. I'll take those odds. :thumbs:

The Statistical State of the Presidential Race - NYTimes.com

 

[Conservative]

You are in for a rude awakening. On a timely note, Nate Silver has gone back and looked at all of the available data going back to 1938 to see how accurate the polling data from this time in the cycle was at predicting the eventual winner. As it turns out, polls taken at this time have called the winner 17 out of 19 times. I'll take those odds. :thumbs:

The Statistical State of the Presidential Race - NYTimes.com

How did those polls work out at this time between Carter and Reagan, How about GHW Bush and Dukakis, Bush and Gore, Bush and Kerry? How accurate were those polls over 40 days out?

How anyone can support Obama with the results he has generated is beyond comprehension unless of course you are in need of more of those Obama results

 

[AdamT]

How did those polls work out at this time between Carter and Reagan, How about GHW Bush and Dukakis, Bush and Gore, Bush and Kerry? How accurate were those polls over 40 days out?

How anyone can support Obama with the results he has generated is beyond comprehension unless of course you are in need of more of those Obama results

I suggest you read the article and find out. That's why I posted the link.

In the meantime, you might want to drop by Costco and pick up a case of tissues for election day.

 

[Travis007]

How did those polls work out at this time between Carter and Reagan, How about GHW Bush and Dukakis, Bush and Gore, Bush and Kerry? How accurate were those polls over 40 days out?

Liberals seem to have blacked out the Mid Terms... it was 24 months ago they got destroyed and Obama went further left..

No matter what the 20 Lib zelots spew here, the country is going to vote and we know Dem/Libs are in trouble when the voters "understand the Dem message" and its there in black and white now, no more grey, we see what Obama really is a bonafide radical loser ... the country is so down, Obama will be destroyed in Nov..

if Obama didnt have the media he'd lose every state..

 

[AdamT]

Liberals seem to have blacked out the Mid Terms... it was 24 months ago they got destroyed and Obama went further left..

No matter what the 20 Lib zelots spew here, the country is going to vote and we know Dem/Libs are in trouble when the voters "understand the Dem message" and its there in black and white now, no more grey, we see what Obama really is a bonafide radical loser ... the country is so down, Obama will be destroyed in Nov..

if Obama didnt have the media he'd lose every state..

Yeah, speaking of Congressional elections ... have you noticed that the Dems have been picking up major ground in Senate races? Republicans who were once so cocky about taking back the Senate are now backpedalling like clowns on unicycles.