- Joined
- Jun 13, 2019
- Messages
- 17,925
- Reaction score
- 3,995
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Independent
It's worse than that. The Democrats are dong things that alienate left leaning groups like Union workers. Indeed, they are insulting the whole middle class with some regularity in an attempt to separate Trump from his base. What they have managed to do is solidify Trump's base and piss them off. Republicans had turnout problems in 2016. Don't expect it in 2020.Yet most people think that Trump will win a second term. An interesting read Voters predict Trump’s re-election, but less than a third would be happy
Maybe democrats will decide to find a way to fight a populist fight instead of taking a cookie-cutter red-herring path but I doubt it since they seem to be focused on "turnout" instead of issues that matter to swing voters.
One thing that came out of the 2016 polling is that Trump's polling with non-college voters was in line with the pre-vote polling. Margin with college educated voters substantially outperformed the pre-vote polls. Another is that California can tilt the national numbers. Exclude California and Trump wins the popular vote by 1.3 million.