The handwriting on the wall

[jet57]

I keep repeating in this forum (so fixated on jobs, jobs, jobs) that the key to building jobs, jobs, jobs is the challenge of moving our workforce up-market. Which is necessary because un- and semi-skilled jobs cost companies far less in, say, Mexico or the Philippines.

For that to happen, however, we must have a Tertiary Education system that is far less costly. Only one out of every two American kids who graduate with a high-school degree go on to obtain a post-graduate degree. Whyzzat?

Because it is too damn expensive! See this info-graphic here.

Also, consider this poignant interview with the CEO of Carrier Systems (Greg Hayes) by newsman Jim Cramer, excerpt (from here):


Need I say more, or are we all going to lament the fact that jobs, jobs, jobs are not going to happen at the level that they did in the past. We must push both our kids and those already in the workforce "up-market" for them to have a decent job for a decent family-life

The handwriting is on the wall. "Get a postsecondary degree, either vocational or college or university!" Which is the idea that Hillary had - borrowed from Bernie - to offer a post-secondary education subsidized by the government to all families earning less than $100K a year (whilst our average individual income is $54K per year).

Wow, what a Great Idea! And yes, we, the sheeple, just shot down that Great Idea with consummate stoopidity ...

What you're talking abut are the trade jobs. The trades have been eviscerated in the last thirty years and the job market has gone almost entirely service oriented and very low wages, so who wants a job like that for any period of time?

 

[Lafayette]

LIFE GOES ON

I have an excellent job, and I am financially independent. That does not change the fact that automation is going to replace a very large portion of human labor and within 10 years you will have mass public unrest as a result.

Each circumstance is different.

I'm from central-Massachusetts. When young, everybody was working in the plastics industry. Remember Foster-Grant sunglasses? They were made there.

All that started to end in the 1970s, and by the end of the 1980/90s, the plastic-factories were all dead and production gone first to the southern US and then to Mexico and finally to China.

And yet, if one goes to Central Massachusetts today, people are working. Many plastic-factories are derelict, but some have been converted into engineering firms as Boston realty prices rise dangerously.

What am I trying to say?

Life goes on and we do what we have to do. Some went back to the apple-orchards that used to be the mainstay producer. Others built houses for people working in hi-tech companies along Route 128 (now Rte 95 around Boston). Others make sure their children get a Tertiary Education degree and move on elsewhere in life.

Rte 95 no longer has the many hi-tech computer industries, like Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) - itself long gone. But there are others -many bred from innovator hi-tech universities in Boston - that replaced them.

Yes, "life goes on", and it aint so bad. Just different.

We adapt and move on, as mankind has always done; which is why we are dominant species on earth ...

 

[Lafayette]

What you're talking abut are the trade jobs. The trades have been eviscerated in the last thirty years and the job market has gone almost entirely service oriented and very low wages, so who wants a job like that for any period of time?

The "trades" are jobs requiring manual skills and special training. Such a crafts, occupation, job, day job, career, profession, business, pursuit, living, livelihood, etc. etc.

They are not reported separately by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonetheless, a cursory search of the Internet did bring these recent (2015) items up:
*U.S. Employers Suffer Largest Talent Shortage In Skilled Trades, excerpt:

For the sixth consecutive year, skilled trade vacancies are the hardest to fill in the U.S., and for the fourth consecutive year, skilled trade roles are the hardest to fill globally. Also on the list of hardest to fill jobs in the U.S. are drivers and teachers.

*Survey shows growing US shortage of skilled labor, excerpt:

Shortage of skilled workers may push wages up
U.S. employers are finding it increasingly difficult to find skilled workers, according to a survey published on Monday, suggesting upward pressure on wage growth down the road.

The National Association for Business Economics' latest business conditions survey found that 35 percent of the 112 economists who participated reported their firms had seen shortages of skilled labor during the quarter ending in July (2015).

And finally this one below. Which shows what I have suspected all along. Jobs have been improving across the country since 2014, as shown by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But, a great many Americans are still pissed-off-royally that it's not enough. Which is a reaction of selfishness and puerile nonsense as an economy recovers from the worst Recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Nonetheless, US Unemployment and Skilled Trades Demand (Sept. 2014), excerpt:

At the height of the housing crisis from 2007 to 2009, employment in the skilled trades as a whole plummeted a massive 13 percent. However, the industry rebounded 6.2 percent from 2010 to 2012, with demand projected to increase drastically in the next 15 years as over 77 million baby boomers retire from the workforce. To put this exodus in perspective, workers between the ages of 45 and 54 make up 23.6 percent of the U.S. labor force. In the skilled trades, that number is a whopping 32.4 percent - nearly one third. Will there be enough qualified workers to fill the void come 2030? Or will retiring baby boomers take the industry with them?

Of course, times have changed drastically since the 1950s, when unskilled workers performed over half of all manufacturing jobs. This figure dropped to 15 percent in 2005. While the percentage reflects an evolving economy, it doesn't show the more important issue at hand. A talent shortage survey conducted in 2009 revealed the nation's most sought-after workers; the top three slots went to electricians, carpenters/joiners, and welders - all skilled trades.

So, now you tell me what's happening ...

 

[Mac77]

It is in places. If you want to see what is coming to a place near you simply visit the areas already decimated by automation and offshoring like Detroit or many other rust belt industrial areas. What has already happened in those places will happen in most all high density population centers within 10 years.
At the pace automation is progressing, about half of all jobs done by humans today will be obsolete by 2030.

Detriot has been hurt by jobs and factories moving to other countries not robots

If you think robots are destined to do all the manual labor in ten years I think you are wrong.

But if they do I want the robots to be made and used in America not china.

 

[jdog]

LIFE GOES ON



Each circumstance is different.

I'm from central-Massachusetts. When young, everybody was working in the plastics industry. Remember Foster-Grant sunglasses? They were made there.

All that started to end in the 1970s, and by the end of the 1980/90s, the plastic-factories were all dead and production gone first to the southern US and then to Mexico and finally to China.

And yet, if one goes to Central Massachusetts today, people are working. Many plastic-factories are derelict, but some have been converted into engineering firms as Boston realty prices rise dangerously.

What am I trying to say?

Life goes on and we do what we have to do. Some went back to the apple-orchards that used to be the mainstay producer. Others built houses for people working in hi-tech companies along Route 128 (now Rte 95 around Boston). Others make sure their children get a Tertiary Education degree and move on elsewhere in life.

Rte 95 no longer has the many hi-tech computer industries, like Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) - itself long gone. But there are others -many bred from innovator hi-tech universities in Boston - that replaced them.

Yes, "life goes on", and it aint so bad. Just different.

We adapt and move on, as mankind has always done; which is why we are dominant species on earth ...

Yes, life will go on. Poverty and violence will replace prosperity and peace because the people will lose their ability to support themselves. In the most impoverished places in the world life goes on. Anyone who thinks life will be as it is now or was in the past is deluding themselves.

 

[jdog]

Detriot has been hurt by jobs and factories moving to other countries not robots

If you think robots are destined to do all the manual labor in ten years I think you are wrong.

But if they do I want the robots to be made and used in America not china.

Offshoring and automation are two sides of the same coin. Both are simply mechanism's to produce products at the lowest possible cost regardless of the impacts on society. We are reaching a point in our evolution where we must begin to discriminate between what we can do, and what we should do.
This scenario only has two possible outcomes. Either we continue on the path of ever increasing disparity between the classes due to the diminishing need for labor which will cause civil unrest, or we manage our economies in such a way that we consciously place the welfare of people above profits for the people at the top of the pyramid.

The real issue is that the people at the top of the wealth pyramid are for the most part psychopaths who have no empathy or conscience concerning the rest of humanity, and yet they control the earths wealth.

 

[LessBiased?]

Offshoring and automation are two sides of the same coin. Both are simply mechanism's to produce products at the lowest possible cost regardless of the impacts on society. We are reaching a point in our evolution where we must begin to discriminate between what we can do, and what we should do.
This scenario only has two possible outcomes. Either we continue on the path of ever increasing disparity between the classes due to the diminishing need for labor which will cause civil unrest, or we manage our economies in such a way that we consciously place the welfare of people above profits for the people at the top of the pyramid.

The real issue is that the people at the top of the wealth pyramid are for the most part psychopaths who have no empathy or conscience concerning the rest of humanity, and yet they control the earths wealth.

You don't even have to go that far to make the argument. As technology continues to advance and globalization continues to interconnect and expand, the spectrum of jobs which need to be done in the US will continue to change. You'll always have some mismatch between the jobs that need to be done versus the abilities and potentials of people available to do them. That will result in some people not working to the full potentials, and others being underemployed or unemployed. Market forces (the 'invisible hand') sort this out to a large extent, but never fully. As a result, some people will need to compromise and accept lives that are merely 'adequate', but the question still remains regarding what do with those who are truly left out, despite their best efforts.

 

[Lafayette]

Yes, life will go on. Poverty and violence will replace prosperity and peace because the people will lose their ability to support themselves. In the most impoverished places in the world life goes on. Anyone who thinks life will be as it is now or was in the past is deluding themselves.

That outlook is a bit drastic, don't you thinks.

Times were worse in the 1930s and we survived. Of course, it took WW2 to stop the Depression.

But, we survived ...

 

[jdog]

You don't even have to go that far to make the argument. As technology continues to advance and globalization continues to interconnect and expand, the spectrum of jobs which need to be done in the US will continue to change. You'll always have some mismatch between the jobs that need to be done versus the abilities and potentials of people available to do them. That will result in some people not working to the full potentials, and others being underemployed or unemployed. Market forces (the 'invisible hand') sort this out to a large extent, but never fully. As a result, some people will need to compromise and accept lives that are merely 'adequate', but the question still remains regarding what do with those who are truly left out, despite their best efforts.

This really boils down to a question of social policy. There is no doubt that mankind has reached a level where theoretically, we can take care of the needs of everyone on the planet. The issue is that the worlds wealth and power are concentrated among people who have risen up through the ranks due to their psychopathic tendencies, and their lust for conquest. We can hardly expect these people to act responsibly when it comes to the welfare of their fellow humans.

 

[jdog]

That outlook is a bit drastic, don't you thinks.

Times were worse in the 1930s and we survived. Of course, it took WW2 to stop the Depression.

But, we survived ...

There is a huge difference. The 1930's were simply a economic downturn caused by the decimation of the working class. Human labor was still necessary at that point and the war made labor a valuable commodity.

Today we are eliminating the need for ourselves by creating machines which do our jobs better and cheaper than we do. Not only are they better than we are, they are now reaching the ability to build themselves, which among biological units is know as self replication.

Any history enthusiast will tell you that when it comes to the displacement of native populations, it is self replication that makes for extinction's.

For some reason it is exceedingly difficult for people to see what is happening to them at the time it is happening. Perhaps it is just that we refuse to do so.

 

[Mach]

This really boils down to a question of social policy. There is no doubt that mankind has reached a level where theoretically, we can take care of the needs of everyone on the planet. The issue is that the worlds wealth and power are concentrated among people who have risen up through the ranks due to their psychopathic tendencies, and their lust for conquest. We can hardly expect these people to act responsibly when it comes to the welfare of their fellow humans.

So jdog, you take all of your earnings you do not *need*, and you find those that *need* it, in other countries of course, because is the U.S. we already provide for everyone's needs?

Please tell me you do this, you'll be an inspiration to us all. Of course, if you value freedom, you're free to do this...and we're free not to.

99.9% of us do not give our discretionary money to people in need. Every minute of every day. This faux outrage and demonization...calling people psychopathic and having a lust for conquest...look in the ****ing mirror jdog, its actually called "being human". Life is short and ends in tragedy, no amount of hypocritical outrage is going to change that, its just going to make you look silly.

 

[Mac77]

Offshoring and automation are two sides of the same coin. Both are simply mechanism's to produce products at the lowest possible cost regardless of the impacts on society. We are reaching a point in our evolution where we must begin to discriminate between what we can do, and what we should do.
This scenario only has two possible outcomes. Either we continue on the path of ever increasing disparity between the classes due to the diminishing need for labor which will cause civil unrest, or we manage our economies in such a way that we consciously place the welfare of people above profits for the people at the top of the pyramid.

The real issue is that the people at the top of the wealth pyramid are for the most part psychopaths who have no empathy or conscience concerning the rest of humanity, and yet they control the earths wealth.

There is a vast difference between offshoring and automation

One gives America control over the production and the other puts our destiny in the hands of foreigners

Don't overlook the importance of making things in America

 

[jdog]

So jdog, you take all of your earnings you do not *need*, and you find those that *need* it, in other countries of course, because is the U.S. we already provide for everyone's needs?

Please tell me you do this, you'll be an inspiration to us all. Of course, if you value freedom, you're free to do this...and we're free not to.

99.9% of us do not give our discretionary money to people in need. Every minute of every day. This faux outrage and demonization...calling people psychopathic and having a lust for conquest...look in the ****ing mirror jdog, its actually called "being human". Life is short and ends in tragedy, no amount of hypocritical outrage is going to change that, its just going to make you look silly.

I have helped many people over the course of my life to achieve improved degrees of financial security both here and overseas. In fact I derive a great deal of satisfaction seeing others prosper, but then my goal is not to exploit them.

The lust for material goods can and does become an addiction and a religion unto itself. It can never be satisfied for those who believe materialism is where contentment will be achieved.

The fact is, either the "haves" in this world must learn how to share with the "have not's", or they will find themselves defending themselves from the masses who are fighting for survival.

 

[jdog]

There is a vast difference between offshoring and automation

One gives America control over the production and the other puts our destiny in the hands of foreigners

Don't overlook the importance of making things in America

There is no difference whatsoever to the person who has lost their job and their ability to support themselves. Like I said before we need to re-assess our priorities when it comes to this issue. Is it more important that billionaires make ever increasing profits, or that our fellow human beings be able to support themselves and survive?

This is the real question we must answer.

 

[Mac77]

You don't even have to go that far to make the argument. As technology continues to advance

and globalization continues to interconnect and expand,

the spectrum of jobs which need to be done in the US will continue to change. You'll always have some mismatch between the jobs that need to be done versus the abilities and potentials of people available to do them. That will result in some people not working to the full potentials, and others being underemployed or unemployed. Market forces (the 'invisible hand') sort this out to a large extent, but never fully. As a result, some people will need to compromise and accept lives that are merely 'adequate', but the question still remains regarding what do with those who are truly left out, despite their best efforts.

Globalization is not the unstoppable force that you think it is

It's just a choice that America-Last politicians have chosen to make

Or have been bribed to make

As the largest economy in the world America controls its own destiny

 

[Sweden]

What a disappointing thread. I thought "Handwriting on the Wall" was going to be about public restroom literary efforts.

 

[Mac77]

There is no difference whatsoever to the person who has lost their job and their ability to support themselves. Like I said before we need to re-assess our priorities when it comes to this issue. Is it more important that billionaires make ever increasing profits, or that our fellow human beings be able to support themselves and survive?

This is the real question we must answer.

First of all you are reacting to something that has not happened yet

But remember what I said in the beginning

Even if robots take over factory production I want the robots to be made and used here not in china

 

[jet57]

The "trades" are jobs requiring manual skills and special training. Such a crafts, occupation, job, day job, career, profession, business, pursuit, living, livelihood, etc. etc.

They are not reported separately by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonetheless, a cursory search of the Internet did bring these recent (2015) items up:
*U.S. Employers Suffer Largest Talent Shortage In Skilled Trades, excerpt:

*Survey shows growing US shortage of skilled labor, excerpt:



And finally this one below. Which shows what I have suspected all along. Jobs have been improving across the country since 2014, as shown by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But, a great many Americans are still pissed-off-royally that it's not enough. Which is a reaction of selfishness and puerile nonsense as an economy recovers from the worst Recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Nonetheless, US Unemployment and Skilled Trades Demand (Sept. 2014), excerpt:


So, now you tell me what's happening ...

It's very simple: since the purge of the 1980s good pay and benefits for trade work has gone the way of the dinosaur and people don't want "factory work" at the bottom end of the wage scale. As a result, long term employment and company loyalty are things of the past and the new breed has it's head in it's phone and other toys because that's the priority. Things might look like they're getting better with wages, but that's compared to what they were when Bush was president. But as you will also see, thousand upon thousands around the country are clamoring for a $15.00 minimum wage because most every job available starts out at $7.50 to $9.00 depending on the state.

Wages are nowhere near what they once were and good benefits and a future are long gone. THAT'S what's happening.

 

[Mac77]

It's very simple: since the purge of the 1980s good pay and benefits for trade work has gone the way of the dinosaur and people don't want "factory work" at the bottom end of the wage scale. As a result, long term employment and company loyalty are things of the past and the new breed has it's head in it's phone and other toys because that's the priority. Things might look like they're getting better with wages, but that's compared to what they were when Bush was president. But as you will also see, thousand upon thousands around the country are clamoring for a $15.00 minimum wage because most every job available starts out at $7.50 to $9.00 depending on the state.

Wages are nowhere near what they once were and good benefits and a future are long gone. THAT'S what's happening.

Wages have fallen because of a glut of workers thanks to legal and illegal immigration and free trade with China and mexico

 

[jet57]

Wages have fallen because of a glut of workers thanks to legal and illegal immigration and free trade with China and mexico

That part is true as well, but the purge of union jobs and strength is the real reason that the demand side of our economy has lost so much ground in the last 36 years.

 

[Lafayette]

There is a huge difference. The 1930's were simply a economic downturn caused by the decimation of the working class. Human labor was still necessary at that point and the war made labor a valuable commodity.

Today we are eliminating the need for ourselves by creating machines which do our jobs better and cheaper than we do. Not only are they better than we are, they are now reaching the ability to build themselves, which among biological units is know as self replication.

Any history enthusiast will tell you that when it comes to the displacement of native populations, it is self replication that makes for extinction's.

For some reason it is exceedingly difficult for people to see what is happening to them at the time it is happening. Perhaps it is just that we refuse to do so.

Ok, Ok - but manufacturing is only 12.5% of our GDP. And there are plenty of training courses to suffice the manpower necessary in a slowly declining industry. (Carrier is sending the really cheap-paying work to Mexico, and keeping the better workers.)

That does not compromise the premise that it would be best if those graduating today did not seek a higher-level of skills that would afford them far more easily a selection of job-opportunities.

It's just plain common sense. We'll still be manufacturing cars in the US, but with far less manpower. And that is nothing new, we've doing it for a long time already.

Those first automatic painting machines came on-line in the 1970s ...

PS: Moreover, it might be a good idea to put higher tariffs on the Chinese goods. Enough is enough of their cheap labor, and if higher unemployment brings down their House of Cards, it is only sooner rather than later. China will implode one day anyway. It has one-million millionaires and 88 million below the poverty threshold! (You don't want to be vacationing in China when that happens!)

 

[Fearandloathing]

I keep repeating in this forum (so fixated on jobs, jobs, jobs) that the key to building jobs, jobs, jobs is the challenge of moving our workforce up-market. Which is necessary because un- and semi-skilled jobs cost companies far less in, say, Mexico or the Philippines.

For that to happen, however, we must have a Tertiary Education system that is far less costly. Only one out of every two American kids who graduate with a high-school degree go on to obtain a post-graduate degree. Whyzzat?

Because it is too damn expensive! See this info-graphic here.

Also, consider this poignant interview with the CEO of Carrier Systems (Greg Hayes) by newsman Jim Cramer, excerpt (from here):


Need I say more, or are we all going to lament the fact that jobs, jobs, jobs are not going to happen at the level that they did in the past. We must push both our kids and those already in the workforce "up-market" for them to have a decent job for a decent family-life

The handwriting is on the wall. "Get a postsecondary degree, either vocational or college or university!" Which is the idea that Hillary had - borrowed from Bernie - to offer a post-secondary education subsidized by the government to all families earning less than $100K a year (whilst our average individual income is $54K per year).

Wow, what a Great Idea! And yes, we, the sheeple, just shot down that Great Idea with consummate stoopidity ...

The drive to get higher educations in the wake of the NAFTA roll out began in the early 90's, everyone knew that entry level and production line jobs would slowly vanish.

Trump has sold a pig in a poke convincing fools that the simple solution is to tear up NAFTA; good luck with that. Tearing up NAFTA will not restore high paying low skilled jobs. Those days are over.

 

[LessBiased?]

This really boils down to a question of social policy. There is no doubt that mankind has reached a level where theoretically, we can take care of the needs of everyone on the planet. The issue is that the worlds wealth and power are concentrated among people who have risen up through the ranks due to their psychopathic tendencies, and their lust for conquest. We can hardly expect these people to act responsibly when it comes to the welfare of their fellow humans.

IMO, this characterization of people and their intentions is too extreme. Someone making $75K a year doesn't reflect "psychopathic tendencies" or "lust for conquest", it just reflects having some skill and working full-time, yet this income is at about the 80th percentile of income in the US. Even to reach the 99.0 percentile (bottom of the top 1%), the required income is about $300K, which is a healthy income, but not unreasonable for a highly capable person in a position of substantial responsibility.

Again, I think it's more accurate to attribute the plight of working class people who are falling behind mainly to natural economic forces and trends, rather than actions of people at the very top of the pyramid (but that doesn't mean that a very small percentage of people don't have unjustifiably high incomes due to the way our capitalistic system works).

 

[LessBiased?]

Globalization is not the unstoppable force that you think it is

It's just a choice that America-Last politicians have chosen to make

Or have been bribed to make

As the largest economy in the world America controls its own destiny

I don't disagree. I think we can "shield" ourselves substantially against globalization, but such protectionism and isolationism has its costs and is against the ideology of free markets (I'm not sure anymore whether protectionism is part of liberal or conservative ideology!).

 

[Lafayette]

The drive to get higher educations in the wake of the NAFTA roll out began in the early 90's, everyone knew that entry level and production line jobs would slowly vanish.

Trump has sold a pig in a poke convincing fools that the simple solution is to tear up NAFTA; good luck with that. Tearing up NAFTA will not restore high paying low skilled jobs. Those days are over.

Amen to that!

But what can you do when an electorate has a collective leave of its good senses.

Just wait around to see the debris gather that might convince them that they were wrong? Let's hope its in 208, because that is in the 2010 midterms that we, the sheeple, sunk Obama's presidency by handing over the HofR to the Replicants.

Who blocked any Stimulus Spending in the HofR to have the economy recover. And, what is he going to do now, the Dork Donald. Stimulus Spend to create jobs!

He's going to bring jobs back to the unemployed who cannot be employed because they don't have the right skillsets? Where?

Washing bedsheets in Trump hotels ... ?