The election is over - act 2

[Mr.Nick]

Look, I'm not saying Obama or the Democrats are doing well, or even that he'll win. I'm just saying there's no chance of Romney winning states like California, Washington, or Illinois. This year Obama and the Democrats approval ratings and polling are a lot better than they were two years ago. If they didn't lose those states then, they won't lose them now.

Obama wasn't running 2-years ago. 2010 was a midterm and republicans and the Tea Party gained a significant amount of seats - enough to take the House. That speaks volumes for how the consensus felt going into the 2010 midterm and things are worse today than they were then in 2010...

 

[Anagram]

Well, that's a bit tepid, no? Why wouldn't you?

He's more likely to win, but I don't see a Romney win as impossible. Romney's gotten some inscrutable momentum in Pennsylvania over the last few days, although that may just be polling noise. A couple states that by all accounts should be locks for Obama, aren't. Although most state polls have on average reverted back somewhat to Obama, the national polls haven't yet. Obama's the clear favorite, but not a definitive winner.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Obama wasn't running 2-years ago. 2010 was a midterm and republicans and the Tea Party gained a significant amount of seats - enough to take the House. That speaks volumes for how the consensus felt going into the 2010 midterm and things are worse today than they were then in 2010...

On the contrary, 2010 was was solidified Obama's victory in 2012. If the Republicans hadn't wasted their energy on those elections, they would have had unstoppable momentum to oust Obama now. As it stands, they took half of Congress, all the blame and none of the accomplishments. The 2010 midterms are ultimately what sealed this deal for Obama.

 

[Guy Incognito]

He's more likely to win, but I don't see a Romney win as impossible. Romney's gotten some inscrutable momentum in Pennsylvania over the last few days, although that may just be polling noise. A couple states that by all accounts should be locks for Obama, aren't. Although most state polls have on average reverted back somewhat to Obama, the national polls haven't yet. Obama's the clear favorite, but not a definitive winner.

There are lies, damned lies, and polls. They don't mean anything, they aren't real data, they are too squishy and subject to partisanship. I trust sound reasoning on this, and sound reasoning tells me that the factors are all lines up for Obama, the momentum is his. Politics is cyclical, it breathes. Obama was wise to throw that first debate, because otherwise the momentum could have been going the other way right now.

 

[Anagram]

Obama wasn't running 2-years ago. 2010 was a midterm and republicans and the Tea Party gained a significant amount of seats - enough to take the House. That speaks volumes for how the consensus felt going into the 2010 midterm and things are worse today than they were then in 2010...

Things aren't worse for Obama and the Democrats though in an electoral sense though. In 2010 his approval was underwater by double digits, whereas now it is about even. In 2010 Republicans held a 6-7% edge in the generic House ballot, whereas now the Democrats have a small lead. There is no chance Obama loses states like California and Illinois this year.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Things aren't worse for Obama and the Democrats though in an electoral sense though. In 2010 his approval was underwater by double digits, whereas now it is about even. In 2010 Republicans held a 6-7% edge in the generic House ballot, whereas now the Democrats have a small lead. There is no chance Obama loses states like California and Illinois this year.

I appreciate your considered, moderate analysis. But I think there are grounds here for even bolder claims about Obama's likelihood at winning.

 

[Mr.Nick]

On the contrary, 2010 was was solidified Obama's victory in 2012. If the Republicans hadn't wasted their energy on those elections, they would have had unstoppable momentum to oust Obama now. As it stands, they took half of Congress, all the blame and none of the accomplishments. The 2010 midterms are ultimately what sealed this deal for Obama.

Explain how you arrived at that conclusion?

In what universe have the republicans done a bad job? by not giving into the democrats demands from the president down the the Senate to the House?

So please elaborate on your opinion.

 

[Anagram]

There are lies, damned lies, and polls. They don't mean anything, they aren't real data, they are too squishes and subject to partisanship. I trust sound reasoning on this, and sound reasoning tells me that the factors are all lines up for Obama, the momentum is his. Politics is cyclical, it breathes. Obama was wise to throw that first debate, because otherwise the momentum could have been going the other way right now.

Polls are usually right. Not individually, but polling aggregates have been highly effective the last three Presidential elections.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Polls are usually right. Not individually, but polling aggregates have been highly effective the last three Presidential elections.

You're talking about drawing scientific conclusions from three datapoints. That's meaningless. I think a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Explain how you arrived at that conclusion?

In what universe have the republicans done a bad job? by not giving into the democrats demands from the president down the the Senate to the House?

So please elaborate on your opinion.

Did republicans do a bad job? I do not care. Did republicans look like the did a bad job. Yes.

It's about style, not substance. Who got the victory in 2010? The republicans. These things are cyclical, and the cycles are themselves part of larger cycles. The larger cycle we are in right now is tending to favor the democrats after the bush years, which is why Obama won in 2008, and then the republicans got their win in 2010 as a backlash to that. Now Obama will ride the cycle again to victory in 2012 as the backlash to the republicans in 2010.

Have the republicans done a good job? It doesn't matter. What matters is that things are not good, and somebody needs to get the blame, and the scapegoat is the most recent victor.

 

[Mr.Nick]

Things aren't worse for Obama and the Democrats though in an electoral sense though. In 2010 his approval was underwater by double digits, whereas now it is about even. In 2010 Republicans held a 6-7% edge in the generic House ballot, whereas now the Democrats have a small lead. There is no chance Obama loses states like California and Illinois this year.

First off Romney has the lead, second I could care less about polls - there are 300,000,000 individuals in the United States and asking 500,000 people about their opinion doesn't speak for the entire nation... Reality is all that matters and I can certainly tell you that all these people who have been disenfranchised by Obama's policies will be out in full force to vote his ass out - not necessarily because they support Romney but because they don't support Obama.

This will be 1980 all over.....

 

[Guy Incognito]

First off Romney has the lead, second I could care less about polls - there are 300,000,000 individuals in the United States and asking 500,000 people about their opinion doesn't speak for the entire nation... Reality is all that matters and I can certainly tell you that all these people who have been disenfranchised by Obama's policies will be out in full force to vote his ass out - not necessarily because they support Romney but because they don't support Obama.

You're right that polls don't matter, but you are wrong to think that 300 million American matter. Of the voting public, only a small fraction actually can be swayed, and they are the only ones that matter.

This will be 1980 all over.....

This is actually 1996 all over again.

 

[Turin]

I am voting for Obama yet the election looks like a close race so neither of the candidates campaigns are a disaster. This thread makes no sense.

 

[Guy Incognito]

I am voting for Obama yet the election looks like a close race so neither of the candidates campaigns are a disaster. This thread makes no sense.

Obama is deliberately trying to cultivate that kind of thinking. It is a bit counterintuitive, but if the race seems like he has a sure thing for Obama, his supporters will stay home.

So, the fact that you think that is all part of his strategy. It's essentially the reason he threw the first debate.

 

[Mr.Nick]

Did republicans do a bad job? I do not care. Did republicans look like the did a bad job. Yes.

It's about style, not substance. Who got the victory in 2010? The republicans. These things are cyclical, and the cycles are themselves part of larger cycles. The larger cycle we are in right now is tending to favor the democrats after the bush years, which is why Obama won in 2008, and then the republicans got their win in 2010 as a backlash to that. Now Obama will ride the cycle again to victory in 2012 as the backlash to the republicans in 2010.

Have the republicans done a good job? It doesn't matter. What matters is that things are not good, and somebody needs to get the blame, and the scapegoat is the most recent victor.

Republicans couldn't do anything or implement any of their ideas because their ideas would have to go through the Senate, then would need to be signed by the president.

So how the hell is someone wrong or "bad" when you cant do your job at all???

The progressives only spent the last 2-years making outrageous spending proposals and republicans had to say "no" and "no" isn't a word the democrats like to hear.... Of course the dems acted like cry babies over the last two years - using tactics like "mommy doesn't love me because she won't buy me ice cream."

If anything the republicans and the Tea Party did a fantastic job by saying "no" to these runaway spenders - the progressives. Of course now that they cant get the House to spend money they will just print their own ...... Yeah, who needs the House to authorize spending when we can just print money???

So you tell me who has done better?

I'll tell you this much - in my 32 years of life I would never imagine our government (er democrats) would circumvent the House because they refuse to spend money by printing more of it.....

Unbelievable.....

 

[Fisher]

The only thing that matters is the swing states, what's going on there?

I went to Walmart to help evil capitalists further oppress the democratic base, and my yard still needs raking, but beyond that, it is just another day in Swing State Country.

 

[Turin]

Obama is deliberately trying to cultivate that kind of thinking. It is a bit counterintuitive, but if the race seems like he has a sure thing for Obama, his supporters will stay home.

So, the fact that you think that is all part of his strategy. It's essentially the reason he threw the first debate.

I never said it was part of Obama's strategy. I genuinely think it is a close Presidential race. Look I live in a solid blue state and I always vote. I am patriotic and there are local ballot issues I want to vote on.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Republicans couldn't do anything or implement any of their ideas because their ideas would have to go through the Senate, then would need to be signed by the president.

So how the hell is someone wrong or "bad" when you cant do your job at all???

The progressives only spent the last 2-years making outrageous spending proposals and republicans had to say "no" and "no" isn't a word the democrats like to hear.... Of course the dems acted like cry babies over the last two years - using tactics like "mommy doesn't love me because she won't buy me ice cream."

If anything the republicans and the Tea Party did a fantastic job by saying "no" to these runaway spenders - the progressives. Of course now that they cant get the House to spend money they will just print their own ...... Yeah, who needs the House to authorize spending when we can just print money???

So you tell me who has done better?

I'll tell you this much - in my 32 years of life I would never imagine our government (er democrats) would circumvent the House because they refuse to spend money by printing more of it.....

Unbelievable.....

You're still arguing facts. Remember: this is about style not substance. All talk of substance is immaterial

 

[Guy Incognito]

I never said it was part of Obama's strategy. I genuinely think it is a close Presidential race. Look I live in a solid blue state and I always vote. I am patriotic and there are local ballot issues I want to vote on.

Yeah, I know you never said that. I am trying to explain it to you.

You, like the rest of Obama's base, have been convinced that this is a close race precisely to ensure that it will not be a close race.

 

[Harshaw]

Obama is deliberately trying to cultivate that kind of thinking. It is a bit counterintuitive, but if the race seems like he has a sure thing for Obama, his supporters will stay home.

So, the fact that you think that is all part of his strategy. It's essentially the reason he threw the first debate.

Ah, here's Guy claiming that the tightening of the polls at this point is yet again an Obama strategy.

I don't know what's worse -- if you actually believe it, or if you're indeed a troll.

 

[Luna Tick]

The only thing that matters is the swing states, what's going on there?

Can't win with out the swing states' electoral college votes.

 

[Fisher]

I never said it was part of Obama's strategy. I genuinely think it is a close Presidential race. Look I live in a solid blue state and I always vote. I am patriotic and there are local ballot issues I want to vote on.

Oh Oh State of Jefferson. If you are in VA vote for the Eminent Domain Amendment, please. That Supreme Court case was horrible and states need to fix that before corporations get public officials to take the private land and sell it to them so they do not have to pay big bucks for it themselves at the market rate. I am surprised every state does not have that on their ballot.

 

[Turin]

Yeah, I know you never said that. I am trying to explain it to you.

Oh ... I misunderstood. So you actually believe the lackluster performance by Obama in debate 1 was a planned strategy and not an off night and that the Obama campaign is making the race seem close by manipulating national polls?

I think it looks like a close race ... with two good candidates. shrugs ...maybe i am naive.

 

[Turin]

Oh Oh State of Jefferson. If you are in VA vote for the Eminent Domain Amendment, please. That Supreme Court case was horrible and states need to fix that before corporations get public officials to take the private land and sell it to them so they do not have to pay big bucks for it themselves at the market rate. I am surprised every state does not have that on their ballot.

You might google the State of Jefferson. It is nowhere near Virginia.

 

[Mr.Nick]

You're right that polls don't matter, but you are wrong to think that 300 million American matter. Of the voting public, only a small fraction actually can be swayed, and they are the only ones that matter.

This is actually 1996 all over again.

Don't forget about the millions that don't usually vote but will vote just because they want Obama booted...

Yeah go look at voter turnout.... Half the voting population doesn't even vote - now that those who didn't care before are hurt now - now they get all political.

I have several friends that never cared about politics but are now hell-bent on booting Obama - why? their lives suck - they believe Obama screwed them over, and I really cant blame them.