I bet you were agreeing with Chuck todd about two weeks before the election when on 'Meet the Press' he was singing
the tune you love to hear, sounds pretty much like that 56% against Trump stuff you are engaging in now. His approval
is much higher now than the 37% it was then:
PS I already have won over $1,500 betting on Trump beating the odds but thanks for the tip!
Meet the Press - October 16, 2016
Republicans feared that Trump's troubles would metastasize and take out down ballot Republicans threatening the party's
hold on the Senate and perhaps even the House. But we have a new indication of just how dire things have become for Trump.
In our new NBC News Wall Street Journal poll out right now Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in a four-way race by ten points
among registered voters, 47/37. If you limit it to just likely voters, check this out. Clinton's lead actually grows to 48/37.
MEET THE PRESS
OCT 23 2016, 12:24 PM ET
does she go for a big win, a landslide? Does she try to quell the talk of a rigged election
by pushing hard into red states like Utah, Georgia, and Arizona, sensing an opportunity for the
biggest electoral victory since the last time a Clinton was on the ballot?
The 2016 results are not indicative of future results..... for many reasons.
OK, so you want to review 2016. I tend to subscribe to the notion that 538.com is the best, most comprehensive forecaster. The final forecast gave Hillary a 71% of winning; Trump a 29% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Now, 71% is a good probability, but not a sure thing. (If a weather man says there is a 30% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong?) Yes, the election was a surprise, but it should have not been a shock. If you looked at the movement over the final days, you should not have been shocked. In fact, only on the very last day did it "open" to a 71-29..... on the day before, the composite was 65-35, which was a radical change in the last 15 days from 88-12. No, Trump closed very fast at the end. Thank you Jim Comey? Thank you Moscow?
Ok... so the 2016 election should not have been a shock. But, Trump had a few things working into his favor that he no longer has: 1) a weak opponent. Though she should not have been weak, as she had outstanding credentials, she was old school, Trump did a nice job of exploiting her weaknesses and convincing people that she had weaknesses that she actually did not have (or that Trump had worse)... but, he brilliantly beat her down. 2) Many people were willing to give Trump, an outsider, the benefit of the doubt. 3) He had a Russian wind at his back that helped immensely with #1. 4) Jim Comey's untimely announcement played very well into Trump's narrative (see the 538.com trend in the cite I gave you). This resulted Trump winning, not because he got people out to vote, but because the elements above suppressed the Hillary vote.
What you do not seem to be grasping, however, is the number I put on the table, the 56% is NOT an approval number, it is the percentage of Americans that think Trump is UNFIT FOR OFFICE. These people do not think Trump is doing a bad job; they think he can't do the job. What this means is that we have a ceiling of approval of about the inverse of that number -- 45%. Quinnipiac has been surveying this quarterly since last September. The unfit number has consistently been 56-57...
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2511
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487
This means that Trump has an approval ceiling of about 45. Its the "unfit" number, however, that will do him in. The "benefit of the doubt" people are gone... since he is at 42% approval, about where he was at election, the "benefit of the doubt" people no longer have doubts, they are generally now in the unfit number. Its pretty tough to win an election when 56% of the country thinks you are unfit for office.
