IS Warren done?

[Jay59]

This is one reason many people (including me) are now predicting that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination. Warren supporters are not going to vote for Biden, but most of them will vote for Sanders.

And this current mess with Iran and Iraq is going to remind people of Biden's boneheaded decision in 2002 to support the Iraq war.

There is a way to check on that. Good polls will also ask for 2nd choice. The recent Iowa State poll gives Warren as the clear 2nd choice, 20-14-13-10 over Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg. The very best poll, printed in the Des Moines Register, is due out next Sunday or the week after.

It boggles my mind how one well aimed strike manages to get everyone's attention. The Iran/Iraq situation has been a mess for many months and few mentioned it. Trump called off at least one previous strike due to collateral damage concerns.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

There is a way to check on that. Good polls will also ask for 2nd choice. The recent Iowa State poll gives Warren as the clear 2nd choice, 20-14-13-10 over Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg. The very best poll, printed in the Des Moines Register, is due out next Sunday or the week after.

It boggles my mind how one well aimed strike manages to get everyone's attention. The Iran/Iraq situation has been a mess for many months and few mentioned it. Trump called off at least one previous strike due to collateral damage concerns.

I don't know why it "boggles your mind". It was a poor, rash decision that could potentially be disastrous for the U.S. Bush and Obama never went after Soleimani because they knew it could lead to full-fledge war with Iran.

 

[Jay59]

I don't know why it "boggles your mind". It was a poor, rash decision that could potentially be disastrous for the U.S. Bush and Obama never went after Soleimani because they knew it could lead to full-fledge war with Iran.

This is the wrong thread, but it was a well conceived surgical strike that had multiple levels of effect. It escalated nothing, but it did send a clear message.

 

[Good4Nothin]

Trump will win in 2020, that is practically guaranteed. This is not wishful thinking, because I don't especially want him to win. But hardly anyone wants any of the Democratic possibilities. Impeachment was a generous gift to Trump from the Democrats. And the assassination probably won't hurt him, because no one in America is crying over that general.

 

[RAMOSS]

She is now clearly fourth in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Most nominees have outright won one or the other and none has ever been 3rd or lower in both. As a practical matter, the first and second place finishers receive a massive amount of free publicity. Looking deeper, there is also the erosion of Warren's once strong position in California. Iowa is four weeks from tomorrow. California is in eight weeks. On the surface at least, people no longer consider her a serious candidate.

Yet, she leads in NM.

 

[ludin]

You are dreaming again. Obama was above 50% approval for most of his 8 years. Trump has never once reached 50% in the Gallup poll. He is the least popular President in polling history. Quite an accomplishment isn't it?


Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump

Presidential Approval Ratings -- Barack Obama | Gallup Historical Data & Trends

You once again prove bias and incorrect information.



RCP aggregate polling data which eliminates polling bias shows that while coming close he did not break 50%

 

[ludin]

A felony lie requires proof that she knew it was a lie when she wrote it. She did not. She will make a great VP and be elected President in 2024.

she lied she knew she lied that is why she continued to write that down all over the place.
lmao not really.

nickey hailey is more than likely going to run for president in 2024 not only will she win the nomination but the presidency.
warren is not going to be anywhere near VP in 2020.

 

[Jay59]

Yet, she leads in NM.

When were the polls taken?

 

[RAMOSS]

When were the polls taken?

Yesterday.

 

[Slavister]

This is one reason many people (including me) are now predicting that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination. Warren supporters are not going to vote for Biden, but most of them will vote for Sanders.

Yeah, but if you add up a lot of votes currently split between the rest of the field, chances are most will go for Biden... ? Esp. those from Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg.

Overall, I've seen Biden + Buttigieg numbers to be on par with or exceeding Sanders + Warren numbers in many polls.

 

[jamesbyoung]

Warren will drop out after New Hampshire.

This has always been about Biden with Bern a distant second.

The real question will be, "who is the eventual Dem VP: Klobuchar, Gabbard, or Buttigeig?"

 

[Jay59]

I doubt Warren drops out early. After Super Tuesday, maybe. She has too much invested in the big March states to think its over before the vote.

Several others might throw in the towel after NH, even Klobucher.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Yeah, but if you add up a lot of votes currently split between the rest of the field, chances are most will go for Biden... ? Esp. those from Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg.

Overall, I've seen Biden + Buttigieg numbers to be on par with or exceeding Sanders + Warren numbers in many polls.

View attachment 67271424

I'm not convinced that most Buttigieg supporters will vote for Biden. Buttigieg is smarter than Biden and a better candidate than Biden. I think a lot of Buttigieg supporters could actually gravitate to Sanders.

And Klobuchar's supporters are almost insignificant.

 

[Paradoxical]

She is now clearly fourth in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Most nominees have outright won one or the other and none has ever been 3rd or lower in both. As a practical matter, the first and second place finishers receive a massive amount of free publicity. Looking deeper, there is also the erosion of Warren's once strong position in California. Iowa is four weeks from tomorrow. California is in eight weeks. On the surface at least, people no longer consider her a serious candidate.

I sure hope not. Trump could use a rest from saving the country with an easy victory over Pochy

 

[Slavister]

I'm not convinced that most Buttigieg supporters will vote for Biden. Buttigieg is smarter than Biden and a better candidate than Biden. I think a lot of Buttigieg supporters could actually gravitate to Sanders.

And Klobuchar's supporters are almost insignificant.

I mentioned Klobuchar because in recent first-voting state surveys (Iowa, NH) she is getting around 7% (other two early states don't have recent surveys).

Funny enough, for Buttigieg, I myself could be the counter example - if Trump has no alternative on Republican side (my first choice for primaries), and if Buttigieg is not in the running by the time of primary (my second choice), I'd be on the fence who to vote for and may even swing for Bernie over Biden. Still, I would guess over 80% of Buttigieg voters would go for Biden as Pete has positioned himself as the better moderate.

And what about others - i would guess Yang voters may go for Bernie, but Bloomberg (7% nationally in latest poll), Steiner, Gabbard, Booker... ?

 

[Jay59]

I sure hope not. Trump could use a rest from saving the country with an easy victory over Pochy

None of the Democrats is a good candidate. Mayor Pete is probably the best, but he has no resume. They are not as dislikeable as Hillary, but they are also not as well funded or well backed.

 

[Integrityrespec]

The only one telling fairy tales is you. Warren said she grew up being told there had been a native American several generations before. There was.

Oh yes let me apologize, Liz has next to no Indian blood. She lied, maybe she was ignorant of the lack of true Indian ancestry but it was incumbent upon her to know the truth before she used it to her advantage. You need to get the facts before you make claims that you obviously cannot back up.
Elizabeth Warren scrubs website of Cherokee ancestry claims

 

[Craig234]

Oh yes let me apologize, Liz has next to no Indian blood. She lied...

Ass CNN said:

"While the vast majority of the individual's ancestry is European," he concluded of Warren, "the results strongly support the existence of an unadmixed Native American ancestor in the individual's pedigree, likely in the range of 6-10 generations ago."

In short, the results pretty much agree with what Warren has been arguing for years.

You lied about this, not Warren.

 

[Jay59]

Ass CNN said: You lied about this, not Warren.

He's right, you're wrong and your CNN cite supports him.

In other news, Warren is second in the prestigious DM Register poll. However, all four main candidates are within 4 %. Iowa is wide open and the best ground game will likely prevail.

 

[Craig234]

Warren will drop out after New Hampshire.

This has always been about Biden with Bern a distant second.

The real question will be, "who is the eventual Dem VP: Klobuchar, Gabbard, or Buttigeig?"

Huh, Bernie is so far distant second, that he's taken first place in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Bernie is distant behind Biden, 1% behind - with Bernie having recently risen 6% while Biden dropped 6%.

 

[jamesbyoung]

Huh, Bernie is so far distant second, that he's taken first place in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Bernie is distant behind Biden, 1% behind - with Bernie having recently risen 6% while Biden dropped 6%.

Let the Bern spring eternal in your breast

 

[Jay59]

A new poll has Mayor Pete passing Biden and Warren in NH. If Warren finishes 4th in Iowa, where she currently polls, and 3rd or 4th in NH, then her campaign has real problems. "What happened?" is not a question you want to hear from friendly media reporters.

 

[eman623]

Warren is not done. She hasn't even officially begun yet.

Why are people so impatient? They haven't even held a single primary or caucus yet.

 

[slick]

Warren is not in a statistical tie with the other three. In the most recent poll, she pulled ahead of Mayor Pete, but Biden and Sanders are still well ahead. There is one other poll in the last 30 days, she is in a statistical tie for 3rd, but not for 2nd or 1st. That said, all polls were before Christmas.

You are correct, the nominee did not win NH in 2016, but she did win Iowa. I do not recall a nominee from either party that did not win one or the other.

Today Bookmaker.eu - Sportsbook odds in Iowa

Bernie Sanders -103
Joe Biden +179
Pete Buttigieg +485
Elizabeth Warren +800
Amy Klobuchar +1650

All others over 30 to 1
Bernie slight edge over Biden

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bernie Sanders -160
Joe Biden +285
Elizabeth Warren +575
Pete Buttigieg +600

All others over 40 to 1
Looks like Bernie 1st by a big margin with Biden 2nd

 

[Jay59]

That's the way I read the trends. When the DM Register poll came out and Warren was in 4th, a lot of air went out of the tires. Not only do pollsters swear by Selzer's work, the voters in Iowa pay attention to it.

That said, I don't think there is any way Sanders gets close to Biden in South Carolina. That at least gives biden talking points going into Super Tuesday.