IS Warren done?

[Jay59]

I live in NH. She and Mayor Pete are in a statistical tie, as are Biden and Sanders. The Democratic nominee in 2016 didn't win here. Sanders did.

Warren is not in a statistical tie with the other three. In the most recent poll, she pulled ahead of Mayor Pete, but Biden and Sanders are still well ahead. There is one other poll in the last 30 days, she is in a statistical tie for 3rd, but not for 2nd or 1st. That said, all polls were before Christmas.

You are correct, the nominee did not win NH in 2016, but she did win Iowa. I do not recall a nominee from either party that did not win one or the other.

 

[tres borrachos]

Warren is not in a statistical tie with the other three. In the most recent poll, she pulled ahead of Mayor Pete, but Biden and Sanders are still well ahead. There is one other poll in the last 30 days, she is in a statistical tie for 3rd, but not for 2nd or 1st. That said, all polls were before Christmas.

You are correct, the nominee did not win NH in 2016, but she did win Iowa. I do not recall a nominee from either party that did not win one or the other.

Do you live in NH? If not, please don't tell me, who does live here, what our primary polls look like. I watch our local news and follow the races extremely closely, including the polls.

New Hampshire President: Democratic primary Polls | FiveThirtyEight

 

[iguanaman]

It doesn't matter she lied on a legal form.
if you actually read those things they are sworn statements of fact under
penalty of felony.

she lied. which technically means as soon as they found out they should have disbarred her ass.
she doesn't have to receive benefit.

why do you people constantly just make **** up?

She admitted her mistake and has apologized. It happened 34 years ago too. You need to move on. No one cares.

 

[iguanaman]

RCP Average 12/11 - 1/5 -- 45.2 52.3 -7.1

Obama approval rating 2016
2011 46.5 47.9 -1.4

Trumps approval rating is about the same as obama's was during the same time period.

statistically speaking he is running about the same approval (in some cases slightly) ahead
of obama during the same time period.

facts do not agree with you.

Obama was not running for re-election in 2016. Trump is the only President in history not to reach 50% approval in the Gallup poll. He will lose and the entire world will breath a sigh of relief. He is the worst President ever.

 

[ludin]

Biden's biggest problem is going to be himself. On no level does he inspire confidence. For all his faults, the same cannot be said of Trump.

This is true. Biden reminds me of a slightly better version of bob dole.
talk about a snooze.

 

[ludin]

I think most sane Americans are offended by his statement about defending the Boston bomber's right to vote.

Sanders is a ideologue. as are most leftist. he just spews 5 minute sound bites but like most leftist can't support anything that he says and
then when challenged to support it goes i don't have to.

his 50 trillion everything for free plan just fails all across the board.

 

[ludin]

She admitted her mistake and has apologized. It happened 34 years ago too. You need to move on. No one cares.

it wasn't a mistake it was a lie.
i have known people fired from a job because they
put down they had a degree and they didn't.

hell i have known people fired for saying they worked .5 hours more than what they should.
why do you think she is above the law when she knew that she lied on a form?

ol yea leftist.

 

[ludin]

Obama was not running for re-election in 2016. Trump is the only President in history not to reach 50% approval in the Gallup poll. He will lose and the entire world will breath a sigh of relief. He is the worst President ever.

obama didn't reach 50% either. i do believe he was at 48% among all polls in his re-election year.
still within the margin of error.

so again facts do not support your argument.
not that you care leftist hate facts.

 

[Jay59]

Do you live in NH? If not, please don't tell me, who does live here, what our primary polls look like. I watch our local news and follow the races extremely closely, including the polls. New Hampshire President: Democratic primary Polls | FiveThirtyEight

By your own expert, it is not a statistical tie, far from one.

I acknowledge that New Hampshire takes the primary very seriously. If stories are to be believed, pollsters will contact every home in the state during the course of the year. I did some research several years ago for a story I was writing. It involved a Dartmouth PhD candidate that stays in state and becomes a political consultant. Eventually she buys and restores a 300 year old house on the other side of the Merrimack river from Nashua and runs for alderman in Nashua. Eventually, she runs for and wins the 1st District seat in the Washington.

 

[pilot16]

I see Bernie winning Iowa and NH.

Bernie is ahead in CA as well. He seems to be surging possibly at the right time?

 

[tres borrachos]

By your own expert, it is not a statistical tie, far from one.

I acknowledge that New Hampshire takes the primary very seriously. If stories are to be believed, pollsters will contact every home in the state during the course of year. I did some research several years ago for a story I was writing. It involved a Dartmouth PhD candidate that stays in state and becomes a political consultant. Eventually she buys and restores a 300 year old house on the other side of the Merrimack river from Nashua and runs for alderman in Nashua. Eventually, she runs for and wins the 1st District seat in the Washington.

I don't run Five Thirty Eight and I'm not a pollster. Care to fail a little less?

Who cares about the alderman from Nashua? This thread is about Warren.

 

[bradt99]

Bernie is ahead in CA as well. He seems to be surging possibly at the right time?

Yes, but in TX and FL he's not. I wonder does that matter though since CA is the biggest state in the union?

 

[Moderate Right]

She is now clearly fourth in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Most nominees have outright won one or the other and none has ever been 3rd or lower in both. As a practical matter, the first and second place finishers receive a massive amount of free publicity. Looking deeper, there is also the erosion of Warren's once strong position in California. Iowa is four weeks from tomorrow. California is in eight weeks. On the surface at least, people no longer consider her a serious candidate.

I believe she is near the top in New Hampshire.

 

[iguanaman]

obama didn't reach 50% either. i do believe he was at 48% among all polls in his re-election year.
still within the margin of error.

so again facts do not support your argument.
not that you care leftist hate facts.

You are dreaming again. Obama was above 50% approval for most of his 8 years. Trump has never once reached 50% in the Gallup poll. He is the least popular President in polling history. Quite an accomplishment isn't it?

Donald Trump's Presidential Job Approval Ratings

Latest job approval rating 45 Dec 2-15, 2019
Term average to date 40 Jan 20, 2017-present
Highest job approval rating to date 46 Apr 17-30, 2019
Lowest job approval rating to date 35 four times, last on Dec 11-17, 2017

Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump

Presidential Approval Ratings -- Barack Obama | Gallup Historical Data & Trends

 

[iguanaman]

it wasn't a mistake it was a lie.
i have known people fired from a job because they
put down they had a degree and they didn't.

hell i have known people fired for saying they worked .5 hours more than what they should.
why do you think she is above the law when she knew that she lied on a form?

ol yea leftist.

A felony lie requires proof that she knew it was a lie when she wrote it. She did not. She will make a great VP and be elected President in 2024.

 

[Jay59]

This is true. Biden reminds me of a slightly better version of bob dole. talk about a snooze.

Biden was never that good. Dole's problem is that his social humor never translated to speaking, so he came across as dull. However, by any other standard, he buries Biden.

 

[Jay59]

I believe she is near the top in New Hampshire.

4th place, eight points behind Sanders and three points behind 3rd, using RCP average.

I don't run Five Thirty Eight and I'm not a pollster. Care to fail a little less? Who cares about the alderman from Nashua? This thread is about Warren.

You can fail less anytime you pay more attention. Warren is not in a statistical tie with the front runner or even the second best.

 

[tres borrachos]

You can fail less anytime you pay more attention. Warren is not in a statistical tie with the front runner or even the second best.

It's a good thing I didn't say she was in a statistical tie with the front runner or even the second best. You should pay attention to my posts. I said she was in a statistical tie with Mayor Pete (they are tied for #3 and #4) and said Sanders and Biden are in a statistical tie (they are tied for #1 and #2).

Glad I could clear that up for you.

 

[VanceMack]

Of all the rat party candidates, Warren is poised to be the one that can be a 'radical leftist' on the democrat campaign trail and then suddenly shift to a mainstream democrat position once the presidential election starts. But...Bernie is still alive and if the party dumps Bernie again like they did last time, the Bernie supporters might just split off from the party for good. Keep in mind that AOC has very recently been publicly talking about how she shouldnt even have to exist in the same party as Joe Biden, and for Warren to have a legit shot at winning the presidency, thats what she is going to have to do...become JustJoe.

 

[Jay59]

It's a good thing I didn't say she was in a statistical tie with the front runner or even the second best. You should pay attention to my posts. I said she was in a statistical tie with Mayor Pete (they are tied for #3 and #4) and said Sanders and Biden are in a statistical tie (they are tied for #1 and #2).

Glad I could clear that up for you.

Yes you did, "She and Mayor Pete are in a statistical tie, as are Biden and Sanders."

 

[AlphaOmega]

Is Warren done? Lets put it this way...she should get herself....um....a beer.

 

[tres borrachos]

Yes you did, "She and Mayor Pete are in a statistical tie, as are Biden and Sanders."

And Biden and Sanders are in the lead, as you could have seen on that link I provided for you. So no, I never said she was in a statistical tie with the front runner. The front runners are Sanders and Biden. You really need to pay attention and not lie.

 

[Jay59]

And Biden and Sanders are in the lead, as you could have seen on that link I provided for you. So no, I never said she was in a statistical tie with the front runner. The front runners are Sanders and Biden. You really need to pay attention and not lie.

From you comments I infer you meant that Warren and Buttigieg are in a tie, while Bernie and Biden are separately tied, and simply put it down wrong. That is pushing the limits of statistical tie a bit, not unreasonably.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

She is now clearly fourth in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Most nominees have outright won one or the other and none has ever been 3rd or lower in both. As a practical matter, the first and second place finishers receive a massive amount of free publicity. Looking deeper, there is also the erosion of Warren's once strong position in California. Iowa is four weeks from tomorrow. California is in eight weeks. On the surface at least, people no longer consider her a serious candidate.

This is one reason many people (including me) are now predicting that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination. Warren supporters are not going to vote for Biden, but most of them will vote for Sanders.

And this current mess with Iran and Iraq is going to remind people of Biden's boneheaded decision in 2002 to support the Iraq war.

 

[trixare4kids]

Biden and Warren both continually stick their foot in their mouth. Biden is a gaff a minute and Warren has told so many fairy tales about her history and her family that folks have lost some interest.

She has a credibility problem and that is what's killing her.