I predict Trump will be primaried in 2020

[trixare4kids]

I'm beginning to detect the first hints of panic in our progressive friends. Trump's successes in the things ordinary people favor is cutting off most early Dem hopefuls at the knees. I almost spit coffee all over my monitor earlier this week reading dems latest "build the economy" paper. Mostly nebulous promises about stuff Trump is already doing, e.g. working with industry to train workers. I didn't see any mention of tax hikes but I'd bet a substantial amount hikes will be their first action to "pay for" the rest of their wet dream programs.

What most impressed me was learning about the 58B decrease in the trade deficit. Wowza!

If you want to read about desperation and panic, read this thread.

https://www.debatepolitics.com/brea...mp-knew-advance-2016-trump-tower-meeting.html

 

[Bullseye]

It's a good number. The fourteen percent corporate tax cut was a snort of coke for an already good economy. However, the coke hangover will come, as it always does.

Actually, no the tax rate adjustments weren't a "snort of coke for an already good economy" - two problems coke produces a quick rush and then goods away, and the economy wasn't really "good"; mediocre is closer to how it was before Trump's election. I'd say the rate reductions are more like daily vitamin supplements that invigorated an economy that was basically fit but was tired from dragging the Obamanomic boat anchor for 8 years.

 

[VanceMack]

Of course he will. But if we continue to see economic growth and if we continue to have sustained improvement in our trade relations, the challenge will be as unsuccessful.

The better (and I think more likely scenario) will be that Trump will essentially declare victory and choose not to run in 2020. I think that would be best for everyone. However...no one should be naive and believe that if Trump doesnt run in 2020 and a republican wins the WH in 2020 that the left wont be as vapid rabid, and hate filled towards the next person as they are towards Trump. Because whether people admit it or not...the constant hatred literally has nothing to do with Trump.

 

[<alt>doxygen]

And Kasich, Bush, AND Rubio would have also been Obama 3.0 . As much as I dislike Trump, my issue was to protect the SCOTUS at all costs from the Left. And so far he's delivered. One or two more Originalist Judges and say buh bye to judicial fiat and activism.

If you don't see fiat and activism from right wing jurists, you have partisan blinders on. They've both been doing it far longer than we've been alive. I get that you probably LIKE right wing activism.

 

[Bullseye]

What most impressed me was learning about the 58B decrease in the trade deficit. Wowza!

If you want to read about desperation and panic, read this thread.

https://www.debatepolitics.com/brea...mp-knew-advance-2016-trump-tower-meeting.html

Yeah, I've been following the thread. Funny all the typical LW MSM are making such a big deal about Trump knowing about the meeting to get possible dirt on Hilary don't seem to see the similarity to her camp playing Steele to dig up dirt on Trump. And using a law firm as a cut to disguise where the money was coming from.

 

[FreeWits]

You have to consider that polls right now are generic polls. Overall, the Trump Approval Rating is at like 48% approval, which is pretty dang good for a country that is pessimistic about politics. In terms of key states, we're in the middle of a trade war and the polls are Trump vs nobody specific. For instance, people in Iowa might say they don't want Trump, but when offered an option between Trump or Biden, suddenly they may want Trump, because many people pick who they hate least over who they like most. Trump is also very good at persuasion, so a season of campaigning can help convince a lot of people. I have a tough time seeing Trump lose as long as the economy as good and we stay out of wars, especially if North Korea is on the path to denuclearization. The agriculture issue isn't going to last forever, either, and we already saw the EU cave. People love to hate on President Trump, but he's actually doing quite well as President.

 

[Bassman]

If you don't see fiat and activism from right wing jurists, you have partisan blinders on. They've both been doing it far longer than we've been alive. I get that you probably LIKE right wing activism.

No, I prefer the Constitution to be PROPERLY read and interpreted. Not this "Living Document" bullsh*t.

 

[USViking]

Herbert Hoover did not win a second term. FDR won three terms

I said nomination, not election.

Gottit now?

 

[Helix]

Actually, no the tax rate adjustments weren't a "snort of coke for an already good economy" - two problems coke produces a quick rush and then goods away, and the economy wasn't really "good"; mediocre is closer to how it was before Trump's election. I'd say the rate reductions are more like daily vitamin supplements that invigorated an economy that was basically fit but was tired from dragging the Obamanomic boat anchor for 8 years.

Trump did inherit a good economy. That's not even up for debate. The 14% tax cut was a real boost. My hope is that it gives our economy enough inertia to get it through his idiocy. The last recession set my career back years. I'd prefer to avoid another one.

 

[BuzzwordBingo]

Some of that I agree with, but I think you have a few things backward.

No one (relatively) liked Clinton. Very true.

Trump not beholden? He'd have been impeached a year ago if he wasn't rubber stamping everything the evangelicals (Pence) and the corporate Repubs send him. All of his judicial picks come from short lists he gets from the Federalist Society.

Wanna see his promised policies in action - look at the tariffs. No one (except some zombies) thinks that's a good idea. It's so bad he's had to pull 12 billion out to paper over the damage to 1 part of 1 sector.

I think Kasich, Bush or Rubio could have beaten Hillary, she was damaged goods that the GOP had been smearing for 25+ years. Any one of those guys would be at 60% approval right now.

The dems beat themselves, and the Repubs let a corrupt to the core loon get through their primary process by turning into an insult and dick measuring contest.

Both parties are pathetic at this point. They serve the donor class, no one else.

Well I agree that the dems beat themselves. I been saying that since the election.

As for trumps policies, I just say it all depends on your perspective. My 401k is doing better now then at any point in time under Obama. Yeah I know, Bush left him a mess. The DOW is up 30% since trump took office.

As for the tarriffs it is way too soon to know what effect that will have on the economy. So far the markets have not responded negatively.

As for scotus, hes doing exactly what he said he was going to do. Kind of refreshing to have a politician who actually follows through on his campaign promises.

You'll have to explain to me why you think trump would have been impeached a year ago. Mueller has been on his witch hunt for a year and a half and there doesn't seem to be a smoking gun, at least for collusion. He has now resorted to searching through Trump's tweets to see if he can find something there. It's starting to resemble an inspector gadget movie. lol

 

[Ikari]

Although voter approval ratings hover just below 40% in key states which is pretty bad those that wish him to be reelected is right around 30% and lower in the key swing States according to the latest NBC Marist poll.

Therefore, I predict he will be primaried and the likely candidate will be Kasich

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-trump-approval-sags-trio-midwest-states-n894556

I'm not sure he will be, particularly if he can carry a strong economy leading into 2020. We'll have to see how it all goes, but it's rare that a sitting President faces primary challengers.

 

[trixare4kids]

Yeah, I've been following the thread. Funny all the typical LW MSM are making such a big deal about Trump knowing about the meeting to get possible dirt on Hilary don't seem to see the similarity to her camp playing Steele to dig up dirt on Trump. And using a law firm as a cut to disguise where the money was coming from.

The left never sees their own hypocrisy. They see no evil on their own side ever... (one of the reasons people are leaving the Democratic Party, imo)
More on point, they don't seem to comprehend that Cohen admitted to not having any evidence that proves DJT knew about the meeting at the Trump tower.
They don't seem to want to understand that a self-interested Cohen is trying to cop a plea deal for his apparent taxi cab shady businesses. Of course, Mueller is attempting to squeeze Cohen, but good luck squeezing water from a stone.

 

[FreeWits]

Trump should already have been charged with Obstruction of Justice, and these Cohen tapes sound devastating. When your own lawyer is turning on you that's a bad sign. All it's going to take is for Democrats to get reasonable control of Congress to happen. So the odds of Trump getting impeached are approximately equal to the odds of Democrats locking down Congress. The probability of that is about 50/50 in 2018, but it's going to be a lot higher in 2020.

So then let's talk about a primary or a third party candidacy. While 80% of Republicans may say they support Trump the 20% that don't realize what he is, and they know they can't let the nut jobs get control of the party without destroying it. In 2016 I think most moderate Republicans just assumed Hillary Clinton would cream him so they stayed out of it hoping they could say they told them so after the fact and pull the party back in a more rational direction.

They won't rely on that again. Good chance that someone like Kasich or even Bush runs as an independent. They want Trump to lose badly because it's the only way they'll ever get control of their party back.


Mueller isn't sitting on evidence he's sitting on a jury. The evidence to convict Trump already exists. It's in the public domain. The only reason charges haven't already been filed is because Republicans would have to file them. They won't do so out of bias.

I don't want Kasich and Bush to get their party back. They were everything that was wrong with the Republican Party, Trump is everything that is right with the Republican Party now.

 

[FreeWits]

I'm beginning to detect the first hints of panic in our progressive friends. Trump's successes in the things ordinary people favor is cutting off most early Dem hopefuls at the knees. I almost spit coffee all over my monitor earlier this week reading dems latest "build the economy" paper. Mostly nebulous promises about stuff Trump is already doing, e.g. working with industry to train workers. I didn't see any mention of tax hikes but I'd bet a substantial amount hikes will be their first action to "pay for" the rest of their wet dream programs.

The simple fact is we don't need to change Presidents if the economy is good and we're staying out of wars. That's where we are at right now.

 

[FreeWits]

No, I prefer the Constitution to be PROPERLY read and interpreted. Not this "Living Document" bullsh*t.

And the "correct" way to interpret the Constitution just so happens to be the way you interpret it, right?

 

[Bullseye]

Trump did inherit a good economy. That's not even up for debate. The 14% tax cut was a real boost. My hope is that it gives our economy enough inertia to get it through his idiocy. The last recession set my career back years. I'd prefer to avoid another one.

Nonsense. mediocre GDP growth at best. Lowering the unemployment rate by driving people out of the workforce; echoing the mantra that "slow growth is the new normal". Compared with today's economy of growth, prosperity, confidence, and enthusiasm the years under Obama were the dark ages. At best he paid lip-service to the economy - he boasted his energy policies were going to cause energy prices to skyrocket and made clear that he was more concerned that tax rates were "fair" than if they generated maximum revenue.

 

[Helix]

Nonsense. mediocre GDP growth at best. Lowering the unemployment rate by driving people out of the workforce; echoing the mantra that "slow growth is the new normal". Compared with today's economy of growth, prosperity, confidence, and enthusiasm the years under Obama were the dark ages. At best he paid lip-service to the economy - he boasted his energy policies were going to cause energy prices to skyrocket and made clear that he was more concerned that tax rates were "fair" than if they generated maximum revenue.

Believe what you like.

 

[jnug]

This economy or at least what impact trump and the GOP have had on it is nothing more than a temporary sugar high.

Fully 1% of the 4.1% Q2, GDP growth was Agro purchases ahead of the tariffs. Great...thats sustainable. That is the very definition of a one time event!

 

[BuzzwordBingo]

This economy or at least what impact trump and the GOP have had on it is nothing more than a temporary sugar high.

Fully 1% of the 4.1% Q2, GDP growth was Agro purchases ahead of the tariffs. Great...thats sustainable. That is the very definition of a one time event!

Fully 1%? Link please.

 

[Perotista]

Although voter approval ratings hover just below 40% in key states which is pretty bad those that wish him to be reelected is right around 30% and lower in the key swing States according to the latest NBC Marist poll.

Therefore, I predict he will be primaried and the likely candidate will be Kasich

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-trump-approval-sags-trio-midwest-states-n894556

The overall approval rating of Trump come Republican primary times means nothing. It is how Republicans see or view Trump that counts. Right now Trump is view very favorable by 60% of all Republicans, 26% somewhat favorable. That has to change first.

LBJ was at 48% back in 1968 among Democrats when Eugene McCarthy challenge him, not an over all GOP favorable of 86% like Trump has now. After barely winning New Hampshire, LBJ withdrew. Ford was at 68% by Republicans in 1976 when Reagan challenged him. That spelled failure on Ronnie's party. But Reagan returned successfully in 1980. Carter was at 42% among Democrats when Teddy Kennedy challenged him. Carter fought him off only to lose to Reagan in a landslide.

Challenging a sitting president in the primary rarely works. I would say never if not for LBJ. It didn't work for McCarthy, Humphrey ended up with the Democratic nomination. But McCarthy did drive LBJ from the field.Chances are if Trump wants to be renominated, he will be. LBJ didn't and was more than willing to leave the turmoil of the presidency behind him. Both Ford and Carter who fought off challenges wanted to be re-nominated. LBJ withdrew in February long before the nomination or primaries really got started outside of New Hampshire, the first in the nation.

Losing the house this midterm could dampen GOP support for Trump or it could mean even more support as Republicans circle their wagons around him. Hard to tell.

 

[Cordelier]

One can only pray he forms his own party and takes his base with him at least if you are a Democrat

Not so much if it leads to a far-left Democratic nominee. What happens in a three-way race where an Elizabeth Warren runs against a moderate Republican like John Kasich and Donald Trump and his followers, with each side getting about 30% of the vote is anyone's guess.

 

[Fiddytree]

I hope he is primaried, but I do not think that at this juncture it is attractive enough for Kasich, Flake, Haley, Sasse, or Martinez (wouldn't that be nice?) to step up.

Sent from my LG-H910 using Tapatalk

 

[SoCal]

I'm not sure he will be, particularly if he can carry a strong economy leading into 2020. We'll have to see how it all goes, but it's rare that a sitting President faces primary challengers.

If the Repubs hold the Senate, which I think they will, they'll never convict. So I agree, as has an 88% approval rating, they'll never pick someone else, impeached or not. For his base any wrong doing is fake news or a witch hunt.

The left never sees their own hypocrisy. They see no evil on their own side ever... (one of the reasons people are leaving the Democratic Party, imo)
More on point, they don't seem to comprehend that Cohen admitted to not having any evidence that proves DJT knew about the meeting at the Trump tower.
They don't seem to want to understand that a self-interested Cohen is trying to cop a plea deal for his apparent taxi cab shady businesses. Of course, Mueller is attempting to squeeze Cohen, but good luck squeezing water from a stone.

Understanding that Cohen has a self-interest in trying to cop a plea deal doesn't make his claim any less factual if proven. People are convicted using lying, immoral and self-interested scum everyday if their testimony can be collaborated and proven. Cohen claimed there were other witnesses, if they back up his story, Trump will be a proven liar and likely collaborator. Is that news?

 

[USViking]

Herbert Hoover did not win a second term. FDR won three terms

It was clear from context that I was speking of renomination, not reelection.

 

[Gaugingcatenate]

This is a debate Forum, not a gambling forum, and betting doesn't improve one's argument. Besides it's just a prediction not a claim of fact. Even if I were a betting man I would never bet on a prediction nor would I claim it to be anything other than a prediction. So I can only conclude you're offering of a wager is merely posturing on your part, a piss poor debate strategy

Uh huh, that what you think eh? :lamo

Just wishful thinking, a wet dream on your part. Nothing even plausibly hints at that and it why I can be confident of successfully separating a wet dreamer from his moola.

Yano?