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I think GOP will secure this despite the recent news on Greg. Around 70% of the votes have already been cast via mail in ballots... so before that news even broke.
You have just pointed out one of the major flaws in early voting. If something happens between the time you cast your vote and election day that would cause you to change you mind, you can't. This Greg character could have strangled that reporter to death, with 70% of the votes already cast, strangling the reporter death wouldn't have meant a hill of beans to those voters who already cast their ballot. It would be a non-existent event to them. It never happened to them. It was irrelevant to them.
Only 30% of the electorate could decide if that event actually meant something. But does early voting actually increase participation? I don't think so. If one goes back to before early voting began, Voter turnout in presidential elections was above 60%. it's been around 55% since.