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No, the good economy saved the senate for the Republicans because you have a bunch of radical left-wing nut cases that gave the Democrats 40 seats in the 2018 midterms!Could be, I doubt it though. I heard the same talk prior to the 2018 midterms where the good economy was going to save the house for the Republicans. It didn't. Like in 2018 and 2016, Republicans will vote for Trump, Democrats for their candidate. How independents vote will decide it. In 2016 independents went to Trump 46-42 over Hillary, in 2018 independents went for the Democrats 54-42.
Will independents come back to Trump? I think we are forgetting that 12% of independents voted against Trump, against Clinton by refusing to choose between them. Voting for a third party candidate because they didn't like nor want neither one as president. I don't think those 12% have changed their minds about Trump. The big difference between 2016 and 2018, there was no Hillary on the ballot representing the democrats in 2018. Hillary won't be there in 2020 either to save Trump.
That 12% of independents who voted third party in 2016 represents 9 million voters. Being they probably won't be voting for Trump, like in 2016, the question becomes how many flip to the Democratic candidate, how many vote third party once again and how many just say to heck with it and stay home? We know in 2018 a good sized majority of those 9 million voted for the democratic congressional candidates. Hence the Democratic share of the total independent vote shot up from 42% in 2016 to 54% in 2018. Will they do the same in 2020 as 2018? That remains to be seen.
The bottom line is that the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties. That's been the case since FDR. Republicans, Trump in this case must win the independent vote or lose the election. We still have a year and a half before election day. We don't know whom the Democrats will nominate which could make all the difference. Time will tell, but today, the independent vote isn't looking good for Trump.
Then too, there is always a major unforeseen event or two which could throw everything upside down.
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