Death projections are down from 90k to 80k now to 60k

[Mashmont]

Great news!

Within a week, US death projections from one of the models used widely (incl by White House) changed from 90k down to 80k and now to 60k.

Earlier range was 40k-180k. New range is 30k-120k.

This shows that stay-at-home measures, now applied to 97% of population, are working.

One explanation I read is that original models assumed 50% of people complied with stay-at-home orders and social distancing whereas in truth 90% do.

Let's keep pushing the projections down! Stay home and away from other people! You are literally saving lives when you do!

Well....Knock me over with a feather. Who the hell saw this coming. But since you're searching for an explanation, let me help you. This was an over-hyped fraud from the getgo. There were NEVER going to be 200,000 deaths like the "experts" said.

 

[Mashmont]

Great news!

Within a week, US death projections from one of the models used widely (incl by White House) changed from 90k down to 80k and now to 60k.

Earlier range was 40k-180k. New range is 30k-120k.

This shows that stay-at-home measures, now applied to 97% of population, are working.

One explanation I read is that original models assumed 50% of people complied with stay-at-home orders and social distancing whereas in truth 90% do.

Let's keep pushing the projections down! Stay home and away from other people! You are literally saving lives when you do!

You have two choices on this, friend: Either 1) Trump did a tremendous job keeps cases and deaths low: or 2) this corona hype was a fraud. It's one or the other..

 

[ataraxia]

The flu is not the cold. The coronavirus does in fact cause the common cold. Along with rhinovirus and others.

Yes, I agree. This particular strain of Coronavirus is a different strain than those Coronaviruses which cause the common cold, just like H1N1 was a different strain of influenza than other strains of influenza.

But the Coronavirus is not just a different strain of influenza virus, which was what was being suggested here. They are entirely different kinds of viruses.

 

[ataraxia]

You have two choices on this, friend: Either 1) Trump did a tremendous job keeps cases and deaths low: or 2) this corona hype was a fraud. It's one or the thers.

Third option is Fauci and other experts have managed to minimize the damage Trump was going to do, despite his best attempts. Fauci has had a tough job trying to handle this crisis without getting fired by seeming to step on Trump's toes. It's an exhausting and difficult job, for sure.

Here is Fauci in a candid interview with his colleagues in one of the most prestigious science journals, Science:

Asked how he responds to falsehoods from the President during press conferences, Fauci said, "I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time... I'm sort of exhausted. But other than that, I'm good... To my knowledge, I haven't been fired yet."

 

[Mashmont]

Third option is Fauci and other experts have managed to minimize the damage Trump was going to do, despite his best attempts. Fauci has had a tough job trying to handle this crisis without getting fired by seeming to step on Trump's toes. It's an exhausting and difficult job, for sure.

Here is Fauci in a candid interview with his colleagues in one of the most prestigious science journals, Science:

Asked how he responds to falsehoods from the President during press conferences, Fauci said, "I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time... I'm sort of exhausted. But other than that, I'm good... To my knowledge, I haven't been fired yet."

It's comical and predictable the stunt the media is now pulling. As you say, the media was saying Trump and Fauci were adversaries as they criticized Trump for supposedly not listening to Dr. Fauci's warnings. But now that the estimates have sharply declined this same media now lumps Fauci and Trump together, saying "White House estimates were wrong" Gotta love these lying leftwing media hypocrites. https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ts-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/

Gee, I wonder who else said the estimates were ridiculously high about three weeks ago and took a TON of grief for it.

Apologies??

 

[Slavister]

You have two choices on this, friend: Either 1) Trump did a tremendous job keeps cases and deaths low: or 2) this corona hype was a fraud. It's one or the other..

Gotta love the false choices from the right wing nuts.

Trump completely messed up and most of the deaths as well as the shutdown are on him. He failed USA on testing AND then left it to the Governors to fly blind. He also failed on any kind of coordinated response with respect to PPE, ventilators, supplies, etc. He has always been way too late, following the lead of others, kicking and screaming.

Governors and local officials had the courage to shut us down even though they had to do so with little testing data, thanks to Trump.

And no, Corona hype was never a fraud (just look at Italy, Spain, and soon UK) but a very real thing and numbers we will end up with as well as economic breakdown is due to Trump's awful response leaving us vulnerable on both fronts.

Happy I could help you sort this out.

 

[PoS]

The experts didn't think we'd do the social distancing thing, but we have.

More like the experts were wrong, but they claimed victory after saying that we did what they suggested...

 

[Mashmont]

Gotta love the false choices from the right wing nuts.

Trump completely messed up and most of the deaths as well as the shutdown are on him. He failed USA on testing AND then left it to the Governors to fly blind. He also failed on any kind of coordinated response with respect to PPE, ventilators, supplies, etc. He has always been way too late, following the lead of others, kicking and screaming.

Governors and local officials had the courage to shut us down even though they had to do so with little testing data, thanks to Trump.

And no, Corona hype was never a fraud (just look at Italy, Spain, and soon UK) but a very real thing and numbers we will end up with as well as economic breakdown is due to Trump's awful response leaving us vulnerable on both fronts.

Happy I could help you sort this out.

So let me get this straight. Cuomo whose state has had close to half the cases and the deaths did a bang-up job, while Trump who has been widely praised by Cuomo and Newsome and them them all the help they asked for somehow failed, even though the national case and death number is MUCH less than predicted. Got it. You Trump-haters have to twist yourselves into a knot to try to blame Trump over this. But that won't stop you from trying.

 

[Slavister]

First, the update note at the IHME DO NOT even discuss, let alone claim, that the revision downward is due to EXTRA social distancing.
...
Second, at this time it is IMPOSSIBLE to know how effective formal state mandated social distancing is or how much credit should be given to it causing the failure of alarmist predictions.
...
Third, it is unknown what each kind of social distancing contributes (if any) to reduced numbers.

Funny how in all 3 of your points you question that social distancing plays any significant role in number reduction.

Well, today, your favorite President laid your doubts to rest:

April 9, 2020:

A key CoronaVirus Model is now predicting far fewer deaths than the number shown in earlier models. That’s because the American people are doing a great job. Social Distancing etc. Keep going!

 

[Mashmont]

More like the experts were wrong, but they claimed victory after saying that we did what they suggested...

That's how it works. It's what the left did with the ozone hole that turned out to be closed. They said "We fixed it". But whatever the case, they will NOT allow Trump to get any credit just like Slavister here is trying to do.

 

[Mashmont]

Great news!

Within a week, US death projections from one of the models used widely (incl by White House) changed from 90k down to 80k and now to 60k.

Earlier range was 40k-180k. New range is 30k-120k.

This shows that stay-at-home measures, now applied to 97% of population, are working.

One explanation I read is that original models assumed 50% of people complied with stay-at-home orders and social distancing whereas in truth 90% do.

Let's keep pushing the projections down! Stay home and away from other people! You are literally saving lives when you do!

Thanks for the vindication of my earlier claims. You ripped me quite a bit for them back then. Now you may apologize at any time.

 

[Slavister]

So let me get this straight. Cuomo whose state has had close to half the cases and the deaths did a bang-up job, while Trump who has been widely praised by Cuomo and Newsome and them them all the help they asked for somehow failed, even though the national case and death number is MUCH less than predicted. Got it. You Trump-haters have to twist yourselves into a knot to try to blame Trump over this. But that won't stop you from trying.

Cuomo made his mistakes, biggest one being closing down NY later than he should have. He wasted days resisting it.

Cuomo criticized Trump on many more occasions than he praised him but yes, at some point, when he was desperate he needed to praise the mob boss because Governors know they need to save lives in their States and that's the only way to get favors from the Fed Govt nowadays.

Next, as already explained, the national case and death number might be lower than 100k-240k range NOT because of Trump but DESPITE him. They should have been MUCH MUCH MUCH lower if we had any kind of decent President. We should never have been talking about 100k-240k kind of numbers in the first place, but Trump's failures on testing, cruise ships, weeks of downplaying for the Cult, as well as PPE/ventilator/supply chain mismanagement got us there.

And finally, even by your own twisted logic, Trump gets an F grade because we are talking about 10,000s of deaths for just a hoax of a cold that will magically disappear and be nothing burger; and that's AFTER going on lock down.

Thanks for the vindication of my earlier claims. You ripped me quite a bit for them back then. Now you may apologize at any time.

There is nothing to vindicate. You are as wrong now as you've been then. We are past your projections and we are still in April. What do you think the final number of cases and deaths will be when COVID 19 goes away (presumably after vaccine is developed or effective treatment is found)?

Remember Mashmont's predictions, people. Only 10,400 deaths, max. Only 130,000 COVID cases, max. This wouldn't make a garden variety flu season. Can you say hoax?

SO FAR... We are at 450k confirmed cases now and 15.8k deaths. More than 3 times MAX number of cases that your predicted (and these are just confirmed ones) and more than 50% higher on your MAX deaths. And this is only 2 weeks after your prediction.

 

[Eriech]

Great news!

Within a week, US death projections from one of the models used widely (incl by White House) changed from 90k down to 80k and now to 60k.

Earlier range was 40k-180k. New range is 30k-120k.

This shows that stay-at-home measures, now applied to 97% of population, are working.

One explanation I read is that original models assumed 50% of people complied with stay-at-home orders and social distancing whereas in truth 90% do.

Let's keep pushing the projections down! Stay home and away from other people! You are literally saving lives when you do!

So the "experts" lied. Trust the scientists they said

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[AmNat]

The only difference is that everybody else in the world believe their scientists enough to shut down their countries and damage their economies (unless they did a good job on testing and tracing). Even those that did not want to do so like UK, which is now paying a big price for it. 45+ Governors and many more local officials have also believed their scientists.

But I understand that there are always arm-chair Nay-sayers who just don't get it and think that the rest of the world is a Cult while only they are the normal ones.

The Swedes (of all people) and the South Koreans both bucked the trend as well.

In any case, I've certainly not denied that this is a particularly widespread doomsday cult.

Guess what, when everyone else is crazy, chances are it's not them but YOU.

Agreed. The sort of insane thinking in vogue today is very much the minority when referenced against the vast majority of humans who've ever lived.

 

[OldFatGuy]

The Swedes (of all people) and the South Koreans both bucked the trend as well.

In any case, I've certainly not denied that this is a particularly widespread doomsday cult.



Agreed. The sort of insane thinking in vogue today is very much the minority when referenced against the vast majority of humans who've ever lived.

South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong announced exponential increases of the viral infection late yesterday. Sweden is also showing increases for infection rates in its major cities, believing more is yet to come.

 

[ataraxia]

It's comical and predictable the stunt the media is now pulling. As you say, the media was saying Trump and Fauci were adversaries as they criticized Trump for supposedly not listening to Dr. Fauci's warnings. But now that the estimates have sharply declined this same media now lumps Fauci and Trump together, saying "White House estimates were wrong" Gotta love these lying leftwing media hypocrites. https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ts-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/

Gee, I wonder who else said the estimates were ridiculously high about three weeks ago and took a TON of grief for it.

Apologies??

Without adult supervision like Fauci, this is what Trump and his lackeys at Fox were saying.

 

[Mashmont]

Without adult supervision like Fauci, this is what Trump and his lackeys at Fox were saying.

Right, and now Trump is being proven right and Fauci wrong. And the leftwing media is now playing that neat trick of lumping Trump with Fauci and saying "The White House" estimates were too high. These leftwing media people are SO crooked.

 

[AmNat]

South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong announced exponential increases of the viral infection late yesterday. Sweden is also showing increases for infection rates in its major cities, believing more is yet to come.

 

[maxparrish]

Funny how in all 3 of your points you question that social distancing plays any significant role in number reduction.

Well, today, your favorite President laid your doubts to rest:

April 9, 2020:

LOL...I only take half of what Trump says seriously, and certainly not that half.

 

[OldFatGuy]

View attachment 67277543

Not in my book. Posters here have been touting how Korea and Singapore have the virus under control. Apparently not.

I had to laugh when North Korea announced that no signs of virus was extant in their nation. A nation where people who are starving and eat grass, has money for Corona test kits? But we heard here, Korea is virus free.

It's not about doom, it is about the crap that is tossed out here so regularly.

 

[Visbek]

Not in my book. Posters here have been touting how Korea and Singapore have the virus under control. Apparently not.

Try again.

South Korea has kept the number of new cases down to around 50 per day for almost a month -- and many of those confirmed cases are people traveling into SK (IIRC everyone gets tested on arrival). Singapore has a grand total of 7 deaths so far.





Singapore kept the number of cases flat for several weeks, and have only had 3-4 days of higher rates. They also didn't do the kind of strict social distancing as SK until this week.

I had to laugh when North Korea announced that no signs of virus was extant in their nation. A nation where people who are starving and eat grass, has money for Corona test kits? But we heard here, Korea is virus free.

Uhhh... Yeah, no one believes North Korea's claims. We were talking about South Korea, which is still doing very well, and is testing widely.

 

[Deuce]

Not in my book. Posters here have been touting how Korea and Singapore have the virus under control. Apparently not.

I had to laugh when North Korea announced that no signs of virus was extant in their nation. A nation where people who are starving and eat grass, has money for Corona test kits? But we heard here, Korea is virus free.

It's not about doom, it is about the crap that is tossed out here so regularly.

"Apparently not?" Uhh, compare the daily deaths in SK vs the US. We got infections at the same time. They did great.

 

[OldFatGuy]

Try again.

South Korea has kept the number of new cases down to around 50 per day for almost a month -- and many of those confirmed cases are people traveling into SK (IIRC everyone gets tested on arrival). Singapore has a grand total of 7 deaths so far.

Singapore kept the number of cases flat for several weeks, and have only had 3-4 days of higher rates. They also didn't do the kind of strict social distancing as SK until this week.

Uhhh... Yeah, no one believes North Korea's claims. We were talking about South Korea, which is still doing very well, and is testing widely.

The posts said Korea, no delineation. Feel free to move to either.

 

[OldFatGuy]

"Apparently not?" Uhh, compare the daily deaths in SK vs the US. We got infections at the same time. They did great.

Nobody did great. Smaller populations garnered less deaths. Less infections. No no one is happy with this virus on the loose. The dead do not care about your politics. They are still dead.

 

[Chomsky]

It doesn't work like that, you need widespread frequent testing, so you know WHERE to snipe. That is what gives you the knowledge you need. We need the reagents to make the tests. Thats the bottom line. We need the capability to make those test supplies here in the states. Biological testing relies on chemical reaction, we have to be able to produce the necessary chemicals in mass. We dont have that capability.

You're right. But I was also speaking to contact tracing, which gives us very specific individuals to test.