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COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study

'Not much different' requires further clarification. It's been many years since a flu season's come close to overwhelming our hospitals or resulting in thousands of attributable deaths per day.

Regards, stay save and be well.
 
PoS said:
A total non-sequitur. No surprise there.




True, but if the fatality rate is low, then a selective herd immunity strategy is viable- otherwise the economy will shatter.



Why do you hate science?



It would make sense if the theory that the vast majority of the infected are asymptomatic, and it appears to be the case.



Those who engage in blatant fearmongering are far worse.


As opposed to a TDS cultist who idolizes Dubya?
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This is another test from Los Angeles

Testing shows hundreds of thousands in LA County may have been infected with coronavirus | Fox News
A large scale study by the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health found that 4.1 percent of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the virus in their blood, which is an indicator of past exposure.

Based on the county's population, that means that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the area have previously been infected, the study estimated.
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Again, America has been duped. It is really not much worse than a flu season that is really bad. For THIS, we wrecked our economy?!!

They are throwing everyone into the COVID-19 hopper. What we need to do is to find out how many LESS deaths we have had since March 1 for heart attacks cancer, diabetes,etc.!
 
Mongidig said:
The only "cultist" around here are the people who constantly use the word "cultist". It's very creepy!
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Yes, well when the shoe fits...what would you call a Trump supporter who will never recognise any wrongdoing on Trump's part, who would never dream of publicly criticising him, who both studiously ignores and tacitly condones Trump's theft, fraud and pathological lying? They remind me of the grinning idiots who call themselves 'evangelists' and the moronic Scientology cult.
 
Aberro said:
No it does not, n95 mask has a flapper valve which releases exhaled breath, or sneeze, not filtered, a hardware store dust mask can’t filter a sneeze either, and a bandanna tied around your face like a cowboy does not filter anything but bugs.
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So go out, get infected and pass your 'gift' on to others. That's the ticket. The N95 mask IS filtered, which is why that type has a shelf-life which expires as the filtration media degrade over time, compromising the effectiveness of seals, etc.. It really does help your case if you do a little basic research before posting.

Release of Stockpiled N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators Beyond the Manufacturer-Designated Shelf Life | CDC
 
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apdst said:
And you people think you're smarter than everybody else. The government told you stay home and you couldn't wait to obey. :lamo

If they told you to get on a train "for your own good", would you do it, no questions asked?
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How about you find something even more tasteless and ignorant to post?
 
Aberro said:
Nope, it’s been at least 4 months, and they are adding untested deaths because it’s possible they had the China flu, so the numbers are bogus.

Then there is this:

ASSOCIATED PRESS SEPTEMBER 26, 2018

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years, never made the news, wonder why?
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Well, see, if people are too stupid to take advantage of a readily available vaccine against seasonal flu, what do you expect? Flu will always kill, but there are preventative measure one can adopt to keep oneself healthy. For Covid-19 there is nothing.
 
apdst said:
Yeah, no you never questioned a ****ing thing.

Gubmint: "Stay home!"

Leftists: "Uh...ok!"
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Conservatives: "what about my freedom!" Feel free to get infected if you think this is all an overblown scam. Nobody mourns stupid people who don't understand the basic concept of common sense.
 
Khayembii Communique said:
COVID-19 went from its first death in the US in February to being the leading cause of death in April, surpassing even heart disease and cancer.

Why are you so interested in minimizing that indisputable fact?
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The question for the doubters.
 
This OP is an example of why smart people follow science and not confirmation covid science.
 
longview said:
The epidemiologists estimates are just that estimates, no one knows how many have been infected, or for that matter, the timing of the spread.
We only know when we saw the really bad cases start to show up.
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Right, but the death rate might or might not increase with more testing, if you're starting with the estimated rate of about 0.9%. And even as we ramp up testing the death rate will be estimated, both the numerator and denominator. The 'final' numbers will be closer in reality to polls than the census.
 
snakestretcher said:
Conservatives: "what about my freedom!" Feel free to get infected if you think this is all an overblown scam. Nobody mourns stupid people who don't understand the basic concept of common sense.
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People mourn Liberals all the time.
 
JasperL said:
Right, but the death rate might or might not increase with more testing, if you're starting with the estimated rate of about 0.9%. And even as we ramp up testing the death rate will be estimated, both the numerator and denominator. The 'final' numbers will be closer in reality to polls than the census.
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That is incorrect, the death rate can likely only go down, because up until now almost all testing has been on symptomatic patients.
yet we know that up to half (perhaps more) of the infected are asymptomatic.
As the number of tested increases, the number of asymptomatic people who are not currently tested will increase.
The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of infected people.
Current numbers are,
Coronavirus by State Map | Testing in the U.S. | Chart of New Cases
37,570 deaths
776,215 infected
37570/776215=4.84%
If the actual number of infected double that number at 1552430,
then the mortality would be 2.42%.
On the Aircraft Carrier 55% or more were asymptomatic.
 
longview said:
That is incorrect, the death rate can likely only go down, because up until now almost all testing has been on symptomatic patients.
yet we know that up to half (perhaps more) of the infected are asymptomatic.
As the number of tested increases, the number of asymptomatic people who are not currently tested will increase.
The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of infected people.
Current numbers are,
Coronavirus by State Map | Testing in the U.S. | Chart of New Cases
37,570 deaths
776,215 infected
37570/776215=4.84%
If the actual number of infected double that number at 1552430,
then the mortality would be 2.42%.
On the Aircraft Carrier 55% or more were asymptomatic.
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OK, but you're using a "death rate" that isn't what's being estimated by epidemiologists. When they estimate the death rate, it's about 1%, and that estimate accounts for the untested, and the asymptomatic.

Sure, if the "death rate" is calculated as deaths reported for the U.S. on Woroldometer.com as of April 21st in the numerator and numbers of individuals confirmed positive by tests as of April 21 in the denominator, ramping up testing can inflate the denominator etc. but that's not how epidemiologists are estimating the death rate from COVID 19 at about 1% or a little less.
 
JasperL said:
OK, but you're using a "death rate" that isn't what's being estimated by epidemiologists. When they estimate the death rate, it's about 1%, and that estimate accounts for the untested, and the asymptomatic.

Sure, if the "death rate" is calculated as deaths reported for the U.S. on Woroldometer.com as of April 21st in the numerator and numbers of individuals confirmed positive by tests as of April 21 in the denominator, ramping up testing can inflate the denominator etc. but that's not how epidemiologists are estimating the death rate from COVID 19 at about 1% or a little less.
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An estimate of the death rate is an estimate of the number of infected people, it has to be since we do not actually have a measured number for the
the number of people infected.
By the way, that is exactly how mortality is calculated.
Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3
Deaths occurring during a given time period divided by Size of the population among which
the deaths occurred
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In this case the size of the population is the number of people infected.
 
PoS said:
COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study – Reason.com



What do you think?
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It is my belief that the real mortality rate is around 2%, give or take a little bit. This would be assuming that we knew every single person who was actually infected, which we don't. However, I wouldn't use this to equate the coronavirus with the seasonal flu. The seasonal flu does not overwhelm our health care systems, kill just about everyone in nursing homes who have contracted the virus, cause us to need to obtain tens or thousands of ventilators, and cause temporary morgues to be set up with body bags everywhere. This must be infecting a far greater amount of people than the regular flu would, probably because pretty much no one has immunity to it whereas flu shots stop a lot of people from not only getting the flu or having severe symptoms of it while there are no vaccines preventing the rapid spread of this disease. You just can't really compare one to the other.
 
AmNat said:
Clearly these scientists need to be re-educated. They are not towing the line, and are directly contradicting information which has been reported by party officials.
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Yeah, these kinds of findings get your grant money stopped.
 
Didn't Stanford researchers suggest the same thing? CNN reported it.
 
snakestretcher said:
Well, see, if people are too stupid to take advantage of a readily available vaccine against seasonal flu, what do you expect? Flu will always kill, but there are preventative measure one can adopt to keep oneself healthy. For Covid-19 there is nothing.
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My wife and I never take flu shots. Still here and most likely built our own immunity.

You folks will be like the Martians in "War of the worlds" You'll perish because you lived in a bubble.
 
longview said:
An estimate of the death rate is an estimate of the number of infected people, it has to be since we do not actually have a measured number for the
the number of people infected.
By the way, that is exactly how mortality is calculated.
Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3

In this case the size of the population is the number of people infected.
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We're talking past each other here. There's the rate estimated by epidemiologists that are somewhere in the 0.8% - 1.4% range or so that I've seen, and a crude and obviously flawed measure which is the deaths recorded to date divided by positive cases recorded to date. Everyone who knows even a little bit about the virus knows testing misses AT LEAST the majority of those infected, if not 80% or more.

Those are two entirely different numbers, estimated by different people for different purposes. Only the latter number of deaths to date/positive tests to date - recognized as fatally flawed by everyone if the question is how many people who get COVID 19 will die from it - will obviously change with more testing. The deaths/date divided by positive tests to date can be useful for trend analysis in a country given their testing rate, but no one informed would use it to estimate the final death rate from COVID 19.
 
Ikari said:
Not sure about that. The flu is about 0.1%. Currently, according to the John Hopkins map, we have 766,664 active cases and 40,931 fatalities. Which comes out to about 5.3%, over 50 times that of the flu. With those deaths, we'd need 40,931,000 cases to have a 0.1% mortality rate. It isn't likely we've undercounted by that amount.
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Sigh, with all of these stupid protests and stuff, it's likely we're going to be stuck in this social distancing hole for even longer, with idiots continuing to choose to spread it.
 
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