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COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study

Cardinal said:
Neat. I guess all those stories of hospitals across the globe being instantly overwhelmed are made up.
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Hospitals in countries with socialized medicine were overwhelmed.
 
Khayembii Communique said:
COVID-19 went from its first death in the US in February to being the leading cause of death in April, surpassing even heart disease and cancer.

Why are you so interested in minimizing that indisputable fact?
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Because it is a minimal fact. Our overall death rate is artificially low anyway. So this artificially low death rate is the very wrong argument for restricting civil rights.
 
TheGoverness said:
Sigh, with all of these stupid protests and stuff, it's likely we're going to be stuck in this social distancing hole for even longer, with idiots continuing to choose to spread it.
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It seems likely that this could happen. Unfortunately, if people are not going to take social distancing seriously it's only going to prolong the time under which we must abide by it. There are too many stupid people being easily led, particularly by this new rightwing propaganda route where they're encouraging these protests for political gain. It's too bad they are willing to keep us enslaved longer to Covid restrictions just to try to gain some political ground.
 
Cardinal said:
I’d ask you what your point is, but I know you don’t have one.
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We can reopen and the hospitals will not be overwhelmed because our healthcare system has flexibility and excess capacity.

That shouldn’t matter anyway because we are supposed to have civil rights and the bill of rights never grants a right to hospitals to not be overwhelmed
 
Khayembii Communique said:
Yes we all know you believe in a giant global conspiracy of doctors to inflate the COVID-19 death figures to make Trump look bad.
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I believe in logic and math. Perhaps you could learn something yourself by going over to worldometer.com and telling all of us the countries that are the closest to the USA on deaths per million and when you're done with that, tell us which cities in the world are closest to NYC in deaths per million.
 
EMNofSeattle said:
Because it is a minimal fact. Our overall death rate is artificially low anyway. So this artificially low death rate is the very wrong argument for restricting civil rights.
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Only a conservative would claim that the leading cause of death in the country is "minimal" lmao you just can't make this stuff up.
 
Paradoxical said:
I believe in logic and math. Perhaps you could learn something yourself by going over to worldometer.com and telling all of us the countries that are the closest to the USA on deaths per million and when you're done with that, tell us which cities in the world are closest to NYC in deaths per million.
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Why would Italian doctors make up COVID-19 deaths to embarrass Trump?
 
Ikari said:
It seems likely that this could happen. Unfortunately, if people are not going to take social distancing seriously it's only going to prolong the time under which we must abide by it. There are too many stupid people being easily led, particularly by this new rightwing propaganda route where they're encouraging these protests for political gain. It's too bad they are willing to keep us enslaved longer to Covid restrictions just to try to gain some political ground.
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Or, we just keep demonstrating and escalating until the government backs down because their plans are simply untenable
 
Khayembii Communique said:
Only a conservative would claim that the leading cause of death in the country is "minimal" lmao you just can't make this stuff up.
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It is.

It is certainly not worth the policy made to combat it. That much is for certain. Your life is not infinitely valuable. Your life on a personal level isn’t worth to me my livelihood. Certainly not that of the whole world
 
PoS said:
A total non-sequitur. No surprise there.
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It's not a non-sequitur. If the claim is COVID 19 is roughly equivalent to the flu with regard to death and serious illness, then someone has to explain why we'll see an entire flu season's worth of deaths with COVID 19 in a month, with massive efforts to limit/slow the spread of CV19 in place across all 50 states.

True, but if the fatality rate is low, then a selective herd immunity strategy is viable- otherwise the economy will shatter.
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Low is a bit subjective, and it's also the serious illness rate that matters, a lot, because that will impact the death rate if healthcare systems are overwhelmed.

It would make sense if the theory that the vast majority of the infected are asymptomatic, and it appears to be the case.
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The Stanford study does not in fact demonstrate that. We'll need a lot more data, and better studies, to come to that conclusion.
 
Khayembii Communique said:
Yes it's no big deal that more people are dying from COVID-19 than anything else.



You can get infected too. Or do you think you're invincible?
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Not a big enough deal to act the way they’ve been acting.

I am statistically invincible to The Chinese biolab virus.

If I were afraid of the Chinese biolab virus it would make no logical sense for me to ever leave my house for any reason.
 
EMNofSeattle said:
Because it is a minimal fact. Our overall death rate is artificially low anyway. So this artificially low death rate is the very wrong argument for restricting civil rights.
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What does "Our overall death rate is artificially low" mean in that context? Do you mean modern medicine allows people to live who'd otherwise have died 100 years ago?
 
JasperL said:
What does "Our overall death rate is artificially low" mean in that context? Do you mean modern medicine allows people to live who'd otherwise have died 100 years ago?
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Yes. Our death rate is highly unnatural and very low.

Since we had functioning societies in the past with much higher total mortality it makes no sense to have the world locked down with ours today.
 
Simply stated there will now be two types of American citizens. The first type will be sure they are covid-19 free due to their diligent, selfless, responsible, social distancing for the best safety practices concerning everyone. The second type will be reviled and vilified because they will be considered filthy infected ignorant vermin, self-centered, deadly animals that are aimed like bullets at us and our families. Threatening our lives with their ignorant disgustingly filthy self-absorbed behavior. Their appearance in our states and towns will mean death and ghoulish horror to our most loved family members, while we must watch in soul wrenching pain. What else can we do?????? So, other than that, everything else will be sunny and roses.
 
JasperL said:
We're talking past each other here. There's the rate estimated by epidemiologists that are somewhere in the 0.8% - 1.4% range or so that I've seen, and a crude and obviously flawed measure which is the deaths recorded to date divided by positive cases recorded to date. Everyone who knows even a little bit about the virus knows testing misses AT LEAST the majority of those infected, if not 80% or more.

Those are two entirely different numbers, estimated by different people for different purposes. Only the latter number of deaths to date/positive tests to date - recognized as fatally flawed by everyone if the question is how many people who get COVID 19 will die from it - will obviously change with more testing. The deaths/date divided by positive tests to date can be useful for trend analysis in a country given their testing rate, but no one informed would use it to estimate the final death rate from COVID 19.
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I think the positive test to date is so flawed as to be useless, for two reasons,
1)Only around 1% of the population has been tested, and
2)The vast majority of those tested, was limited to people who were already showing symptoms.
The Deaths per infection rate is the mortality rate, but we have no idea of the actual infection rate, yet!
 
Aberro said:
CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

ASSOCIATED PRESS SEPTEMBER 26, 2018

Never made the news. Wonder why?
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First off, you say "last winter", yet the article you link to is dated Sept. 2018, which would be the 2017-2018 winter season. The CDC estimates flu deaths for that season to be 61,000. You are already at over 43,000 deaths from COVID 19 in the US, and that is just in a couple months or so.

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC

This past flu season, the estimated deaths are 24,000-62,000.

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC
 
JasperL said:
Hopefully that's true, but when the epidemiologists estimate a death rate of about 1% or so, that assumes a large number of infected but not tested and asymptomatic individuals. What the new studies appear to show - we don't know much yet - is there are more who get infected without symptoms than current evidence has demonstrated/assumed.

But, yeah, testing has a big impact on the numbers, which is why the UK and Germany have roughly the same measured cases per million (1,838 versus 1,750), but the deaths per million in the UK are 243/million, but only 56/million for Germany, and it's because Germany tested at high rates from the jump, and the UK hasn't.
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And that makes this just like the flu. We have shut down the country, the world based on bad information and faulty modeling. The after effects are going to be worse than the virus if we don't let people open their business and employees go back to work. People have homes and financial responsibilities, they need to work.
 
Paradoxical said:
My wife and I never take flu shots. Still here and most likely built our own immunity.

You folks will be like the Martians in "War of the worlds" You'll perish because you lived in a bubble.
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What a heroically dumb post. I will survive because I'm not stupid enough to ignore social distancing guidelines which, I might add, are working to reduce instances of infection in every country which is enforcing them.
 
JasperL said:
The Stanford study does not in fact demonstrate that. We'll need a lot more data, and better studies, to come to that conclusion.
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It's a big step forward in understanding the virus, as opposed to just random models. The death rate can only go down

Khayembii Communique said:
Why are you so interested in minimizing the lethality of this virus?
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Only facts interests me, unlike you
 
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