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Bitcoin

Yes but the internet was not a bubble.
lol

The point is that the Dot Com boom was a bubble, despite denials and cries of "this time, it's different!" from the faithful. People then and now use(d) the wrong metrics to measure success and health. Back then, it was stock price; today, it's Bitcoin exchange rates.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised at all that people who don't understand economics can't distinguish between a currency and speculative asset... or that people who drool at the thought of Free Money are happy to spend their actual money (and in some cases, borrowed money) chasing bubbles. There's a sucker born every minute...


Over 900 cryptocurrencies exist. The majority of them will fail.

How many websites online are there? A lot.
Yes... As I've been saying... Cryptocurrencies and blockchain will likely be useful in the future. (The latter much more than the former IMO.)

However, that doesn't magically change the fact that Bitcoin is in a huge bubble right now; that speculators have pretty much wrecked Bitcoin as a currency; that a small number of whales can easily manipulate the Bitcoin market to their advantage, at least in the short term; that there are numerous structural issues to pretty much every unbacked cryptocurrency which makes it prone to manipulation, wild fluctuations in exchange rates, and use by illegitimate actors; and that these issues are wrecking Bitcoin's function as an actual currency.
 
lol

The point is that the Dot Com boom was a bubble, despite denials and cries of "this time, it's different!" from the faithful. People then and now use(d) the wrong metrics to measure success and health. Back then, it was stock price; today, it's Bitcoin exchange rates.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised at all that people who don't understand economics can't distinguish between a currency and speculative asset... or that people who drool at the thought of Free Money are happy to spend their actual money (and in some cases, borrowed money) chasing bubbles. There's a sucker born every minute...


Yes... As I've been saying... Cryptocurrencies and blockchain will likely be useful in the future. (The latter much more than the former IMO.)

However, that doesn't magically change the fact that Bitcoin is in a huge bubble right now; that speculators have pretty much wrecked Bitcoin as a currency; that a small number of whales can easily manipulate the Bitcoin market to their advantage, at least in the short term; that there are numerous structural issues to pretty much every unbacked cryptocurrency which makes it prone to manipulation, wild fluctuations in exchange rates, and use by illegitimate actors; and that these issues are wrecking Bitcoin's function as an actual currency.

Palihapitiya is founder and CEO of Social Capital. He was a former member of the senior executive team at Facebook. His firm has $2.6 billion of assets under management. The investor is also co-owner of the Golden State Warriors basketball franchise.

Chamath Palihapitiya, who first bought bitcoin years ago at an average price of about $100, still believes the cryptocurrency has much further to go despite the monster rally this year.

"I think this thing is a $100,000 a coin probably in the next three to four years. And I think it is in the next 20 years a million dollars a coin," he said in an interview Tuesday with CNBC's "Squawk Box."

Palihapitiya still thinks investors should put 1 percent of their net worth in the cryptocurrency.

"This is now a confidence game. There is no real utility in this. This is a fantastic fundamental hedge and store of value against autocratic regimes and banking infrastructure that we know is corrosive to how the world needs to work properly," Palihapitiya said. "You cannot have central banks infinitely printing currency."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/12/soc...-going-to-1-million-in-the-next-20-years.html

I think Palihapituya is 100% right.
 
I think you're just compounding your mistake.

Again: A currency going to $100,000 or $1,000,000 is not a sign of success.

Again: These types of claims are entirely typical in a bubble.

Again: Cryptocurrencies may well work out. But the properties of Bitcoin that could theoretically send its exchange rate to the moon, are the same properties that will undermine its ability to operate as an actual currency.
 
I think you're just compounding your mistake.

Again: A currency going to $100,000 or $1,000,000 is not a sign of success.

Again: These types of claims are entirely typical in a bubble.

Again: Cryptocurrencies may well work out. But the properties of Bitcoin that could theoretically send its exchange rate to the moon, are the same properties that will undermine its ability to operate as an actual currency.

I guess we will just have to disagree. I have bought several goods and services with bitcoin already.

Again, not all crypto's will work out. I have bought some PutinCoin and PotCoin, looked into sexcoin. Bitcoin should stabilize.
 
I kind of chuckle at this statement. Bitcoin is unethical? Ever heard of Wall Street?

That's an over generalization. The stock market is diverse with varying risks. The crypto market is wildly unstable, currently in a bubble that will eventually burst causing many people to lose out on money. It lacks any real oversight. It also lacks any real asset value, with some exceptions (like the XRP). The only thing supporting things like bitcoin is extremely wild speculation and futures. In other words the only way to really profit off of BTC is to pull out when others put money in, and not because the p/e ratio or asset ratio has increased. I find that unethical because it means for me to profit off of crypto, someone else has to lose bigtime.

Nowhere in the entire stock market is anything prone to such unstable fluctuation and speculation as this. There's high risk and then there's highway robbery. BTC is basically fiat at this point.
 
Nowhere in the entire stock market is anything prone to such unstable fluctuation and speculation as this. There's high risk and then there's highway robbery. BTC is basically fiat at this point.
Actually, BTC isn't a fiat currency. Only governments or central banks can create a fiat currency.

Its actual classification is in dispute. Because of the speculations, and because of the structural inability to stabilize the value, I'd say it is a digital/virtual asset that can be used as a medium of exchange. The volatility rules it out as both a store of value, and as a unit of account. And obviously, its primary use at this time is not to exchange goods and services, but as an object of speculation.
 
Actually, BTC isn't a fiat currency. Only governments or central banks can create a fiat currency.

Its actual classification is in dispute. Because of the speculations, and because of the structural inability to stabilize the value, I'd say it is a digital/virtual asset that can be used as a medium of exchange. The volatility rules it out as both a store of value, and as a unit of account. And obviously, its primary use at this time is not to exchange goods and services, but as an object of speculation.

Incredibly on point. BTC is not the crypto of the future. Too slow/clunky. Other blockchains and technologies are better.
 
Been involved the the crypto world since 2011. Earned my bitcoin the odd way, by winning them at poker. Have even been a contributor to an alt coin project. Hodl 70% of my crypto in that alt.

This thread has been an interesting read.

Most of you would laugh at me if I told you my opinions of bitcoin and crypto in general. Suffice it to say I'm not selling any. Spending, yes. From t-shirts to trips to Hawaii. But not selling.

Let's meet back up in say 2022... see if I was right.

If not? Well I went to Hawaii.
 
I think you're just compounding your mistake.

Again: A currency going to $100,000 or $1,000,000 is not a sign of success.

Again: These types of claims are entirely typical in a bubble.

Again: Cryptocurrencies may well work out. But the properties of Bitcoin that could theoretically send its exchange rate to the moon, are the same properties that will undermine its ability to operate as an actual currency.

It's philosophical conception was that of finite gold--not unlimited paper fiat printed by a central bank--thus as gold or diamonds or oil were to reach the end of its extraction, the price would go up, so too with digital Bitcoin. However, unlike a $1 which can only be broken down to a metal penny, even if 1 Bitcoin sold for $100,000 once all Bitcoins total were mined for eternity, a single Bitcoin can be broken down digitally below a penny to something like 0.000000000001. And it would still have buying power like a penny or nickle has.
 
Incredibly on point. BTC is not the crypto of the future. Too slow/clunky. Other blockchains and technologies are better.

I'm far more interested long term in truly scalable and govt/bank friendly cryptos such as Ripple.
 
Surprise! BTC is down 50% from its recent highs.

This is most likely compounded by the illiquidity of BTC (yes, it's hard to sell), the lack of any "circuit breakers" as you have on other exchanges like the NYSE, and the usual panic

Of course, this will not dissuade the Erinyes of Cybercurrency, and won't scare people off for long. It will be fascinating to see if BTC has repeated spike-and-crash cycles, or if it will ever crash hard enough to permanently put people off.
 
Surprise! BTC is down 50% from its recent highs.

This is most likely compounded by the illiquidity of BTC (yes, it's hard to sell), the lack of any "circuit breakers" as you have on other exchanges like the NYSE, and the usual panic

Of course, this will not dissuade the Erinyes of Cybercurrency, and won't scare people off for long. It will be fascinating to see if BTC has repeated spike-and-crash cycles, or if it will ever crash hard enough to permanently put people off.

And, how this is going to be affecting other crypto currencies.
 
This is so annoying, just when I think I have the idiocy of people correctly pegged I always get shown that I am too optimistic....
 
Surprise! BTC is down 50% from its recent highs.

This is most likely compounded by the illiquidity of BTC (yes, it's hard to sell), the lack of any "circuit breakers" as you have on other exchanges like the NYSE, and the usual panic

Of course, this will not dissuade the Erinyes of Cybercurrency, and won't scare people off for long. It will be fascinating to see if BTC has repeated spike-and-crash cycles, or if it will ever crash hard enough to permanently put people off.

How is it hard to sell? I acquire and sell btc 2 or 3 times a week. I sold about $2,000 of it this morning. Took 30 seconds to put in the order and about 10 minutes to show up in my bank account. But there is a learning curve.

And yeah, I imagine it will spike and drop over and over again. I use and accept BTC but I don’t invest in it. I don’t have that kind of risk tolerance unless it is money I would gamble with anyway. But there are more entertaining ways to gamble. :)
 
Surprise! BTC is down 50% from its recent highs.

This is most likely compounded by the illiquidity of BTC (yes, it's hard to sell), the lack of any "circuit breakers" as you have on other exchanges like the NYSE, and the usual panic

Of course, this will not dissuade the Erinyes of Cybercurrency, and won't scare people off for long. It will be fascinating to see if BTC has repeated spike-and-crash cycles, or if it will ever crash hard enough to permanently put people off.

This sell off was across the board as cryptocurrencies go.

And yes, Bitcoin is indeed very boom and bust; this is far from the first time it's happened. Longer term, though I personally think BTC is among the least of the cryptos in terms of its long term promise and technical capabilities I have no doubt the price will eventually recover and then some, as it has done repeatedly in the past.
 
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How is it hard to sell? I acquire and sell btc 2 or 3 times a week. I sold about $2,000 of it this morning. Took 30 seconds to put in the order and about 10 minutes to show up in my bank account. But there is a learning curve.

And yeah, I imagine it will spike and drop over and over again. I use and accept BTC but I don’t invest in it. I don’t have that kind of risk tolerance unless it is money I would gamble with anyway. But there are more entertaining ways to gamble. :)

There is also the Shift debit card which allows $200 per day cash withdrawals from ATMs and up to $1,000 per day purchases on the card. Now, there was a time Bitcoin was going for a bout a 1 cent per Bitcoin, and then $3 per Bitcoin, eventually $600 per Bitcoin and so on.

Imagine a college student purchased 3 Bitcoins when they were $3 a piece, so, for a sum of $9 (not including transaction fees) and much later on they got a Shift debit card. Now, even if Bitcoin plummeted from $19,000 per coin to say $10,000 per coin said student made one hell of a profit. They can get more money out of their Shift card on withdrawals and purchases per day, than the damn $9 dollars they had invested years earlier.

Look marijuana sold illegally on the streets of America don't generally bring a doubling of your money when sold. That's what made cocaine so attractive to sell on the streets of America as a street dealer, you for the most part could expect a doubling of your money, albeit, a portion you would take out for the overhead of "re-copping," buying more cocaine to sell again.

Clothing (suits) from companies like Men's Wearhouse, jewelry, and Bitcoin have offered some of the most radical profits to be legally, far more so than selling cocaine. Bitcoin the most if you bought in very early. Suits sold from Men's Wearhouse a lot less so but still with large profits from huge markup. What... they sell suits for like $600 that are made (with glue) for like $10 in factories in developing nations like Indonesia.



Bitcoin is 1st Generation blockchain tech though. Kind of like 1st Generation cellphones. But Bitcoin carries name recognition having been the first to establish blockchain tech and being the one most reported on in the media. That's all I say on that. But it should be enough to give one a clue. I'll say one other thing: the United States Postal Service has released a paper about the need for the US Postal Service to explore adopting this new tech. Some countries are already jumping on it.


apan made bitcoin a legal currency - now it's more popular than ever | CNBC Reports

Honestly, I knew to purchase Bitcoin back when it was around $60 a coin if I recall correctly. Certainly I knew when it was around $200 a coin. I procrastinated and only rarely had the money. I knew back then eventually Bitcoin would rise to $100,000 per coin. And I know now that it still likely will after going through major up and downs. Nonetheless, as it being 1st Generation tech it suffers from some technological limitations. But its name recognition, and that it is viewed in crypto world as akin to the US dollar (which all other world currencies are measured against), there are decent odds Bitcoin will stay on the world stage long enough (or for a century) to reach and maintain the $100,000 per coin mark and act as a store of value similar to people buying gold and putting it in a vault. Maybe. Black swans do come, so, it's hard to really predict the future on things like this.

Certainly, banks--governments are tied to them--will try to knee cap crypto or at minimum create their own and **** block the other crypto currencies. But the genie (tech) is out of the bottle and I don't foresee the tech itself being shoved back into the bottle. And I don't pretend to understand this complex mathematics that is the essence of the block chain, but I kind of get the "philosophical" idea of it all *somewhat.* And if nothing else it enable a more efficient form of money transfer and a fraction of the price we see now say... from transferring money out of your US bank to some bank in Cambodia because you re living their temporarily for 18 months. Too much friction occurs with 3rd party sources like Western Union too.

I'm personally not in the Bitcoin game. At this point the price of entry is too high (in relation to making a profit) for someone of my low means. But I'm not hating on Bitcoin or those that had the vision or luck of entering into the game early enough.

I think taking out a second mortgage on your home is too high a price relative to the high risk though--just to buy one or more Bitcoins.
 
I don't know about BTC hitting $100k, especially given the limits of its now outmoded technology and scalability, but I don't think it's going to remain below its current all time high for too long.

Governments definitely have the capacity to seriously damage the value of cryptocurrencies across the board if they so choose, and as their market capitalization and public exposure grow, they will increasingly seek to regulate the key nodes of crypto transacting. Ultimately, they may not be able to stop the transacting of cryptos, but they can absolutely place limits on its value through various means of interdiction; anyone who disregards the potential impact of govt of crypto markets is a rank fool IMO, especially now that they've broken into the mainstream via major US commodity exchanges.

At the end of the day though, I think there's a lot of profit to be made from this emergent technology, and the most valuable cryptos will be those that are govt/regulator friendly, and that are readily scalable to widespread use in terms of transaction speed and costs.

As I mentioned previously, I'm personally long on Ripple which meets both of these criteria, and if it sees price increases even remotely close to BTC's that'll be tens of millions in the bank at essentially negligible downside risk.
 
There is also the Shift debit card which allows $200 per day cash withdrawals from ATMs and up to $1,000 per day purchases on the card. Now, there was a time Bitcoin was going for a bout a 1 cent per Bitcoin, and then $3 per Bitcoin, eventually $600 per Bitcoin and so on.

Imagine a college student purchased 3 Bitcoins when they were $3 a piece, so, for a sum of $9 (not including transaction fees) and much later on they got a Shift debit card. Now, even if Bitcoin plummeted from $19,000 per coin to say $10,000 per coin said student made one hell of a profit. They can get more money out of their Shift card on withdrawals and purchases per day, than the damn $9 dollars they had invested years earlier.

Look marijuana sold illegally on the streets of America don't generally bring a doubling of your money when sold. That's what made cocaine so attractive to sell on the streets of America as a street dealer, you for the most part could expect a doubling of your money, albeit, a portion you would take out for the overhead of "re-copping," buying more cocaine to sell again.

Clothing (suits) from companies like Men's Wearhouse, jewelry, and Bitcoin have offered some of the most radical profits to be legally, far more so than selling cocaine. Bitcoin the most if you bought in very early. Suits sold from Men's Wearhouse a lot less so but still with large profits from huge markup. What... they sell suits for like $600 that are made (with glue) for like $10 in factories in developing nations like Indonesia.



Bitcoin is 1st Generation blockchain tech though. Kind of like 1st Generation cellphones. But Bitcoin carries name recognition having been the first to establish blockchain tech and being the one most reported on in the media. That's all I say on that. But it should be enough to give one a clue. I'll say one other thing: the United States Postal Service has released a paper about the need for the US Postal Service to explore adopting this new tech. Some countries are already jumping on it.




Honestly, I knew to purchase Bitcoin back when it was around $60 a coin if I recall correctly. Certainly I knew when it was around $200 a coin. I procrastinated and only rarely had the money. I knew back then eventually Bitcoin would rise to $100,000 per coin. And I know now that it still likely will after going through major up and downs. Nonetheless, as it being 1st Generation tech it suffers from some technological limitations. But its name recognition, and that it is viewed in crypto world as akin to the US dollar (which all other world currencies are measured against), there are decent odds Bitcoin will stay on the world stage long enough (or for a century) to reach and maintain the $100,000 per coin mark and act as a store of value similar to people buying gold and putting it in a vault. Maybe. Black swans do come, so, it's hard to really predict the future on things like this.

Certainly, banks--governments are tied to them--will try to knee cap crypto or at minimum create their own and **** block the other crypto currencies. But the genie (tech) is out of the bottle and I don't foresee the tech itself being shoved back into the bottle. And I don't pretend to understand this complex mathematics that is the essence of the block chain, but I kind of get the "philosophical" idea of it all *somewhat.* And if nothing else it enable a more efficient form of money transfer and a fraction of the price we see now say... from transferring money out of your US bank to some bank in Cambodia because you re living their temporarily for 18 months. Too much friction occurs with 3rd party sources like Western Union too.

I'm personally not in the Bitcoin game. At this point the price of entry is too high (in relation to making a profit) for someone of my low means. But I'm not hating on Bitcoin or those that had the vision or luck of entering into the game early enough.

I think taking out a second mortgage on your home is too high a price relative to the high risk though--just to buy one or more Bitcoins.


I understand investors wanting it to get to $100,000 but for people like me who use it just as a means of exchange, these tiny decimal amounts get annoying.
 
I see bitcoin continuing to surge in value, well over $10,000. People that put money into this will be happy but I always get a sense its value is destined to fall eventually, perhaps crash under $1,000.

Any thoughts on this cryptocurrency?

It's going to crash and crash hard eventually. The problem is that at the moment the coins aren't useful for much of anything. Or at least not much of anything legal. The other issue is the unregulated exchanges.
 
I understand investors wanting it to get to $100,000 but for people like me who use it just as a means of exchange, these tiny decimal amounts get annoying.

I've read "analysts" predicting $2-300k per coin. Sounds like the big hype of 2017-2018 and the 100 ft. snowstorm of '88.
 
It's going to crash and crash hard eventually. The problem is that at the moment the coins aren't useful for much of anything. Or at least not much of anything legal. The other issue is the unregulated exchanges.

The biggest problem with BTC long term I feel is its technical limitations; if gold can hold value on largely the solitary basis of belief and scarcity (it has some niche utility/industrial applications true, but by and large, it's valuable because people think it is and because it isn't exactly abundant), then bitcoin can hold value, but BTC just doesn't have the capacity to scale up to the levels of widespread/mainstream usage so many of its investors dream of which will eventually result in sky high transaction costs and delays (also its deflationary aspect means it will be used predominantly as a value store/speculation tool rather than a currency, further limiting its mainstream appeal). What this means is that we'll probably get another fork like BitcoinCash at some point in the future which seeks to address these problems.

Another major threat is govt intervention, particularly as illicit/tax dodging uses become more common, and financial markets dangerously increase their exposure to it/other cryptos as they almost surely will, but this isn't as inevitable and assured as said technical limits.
 
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Another major threat is govt intervention, particularly as illicit/tax dodging uses become more common, and financial markets dangerously increase their exposure to it/other cryptos as they almost surely will, but this isn't as inevitable and assured as said technical limits.

Yeah, this is what I see being the eventual death of cryptocurrency. Eventually the amount of money tied up in it gets large enough for the government to start paying attention.
 
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