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2012 Election Prediction Contest

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The Mark said:
I have no idea what this is all about, but just too mess with people I'll predict that both Romney and Obama win exactly the same amount of the electoral votes, even if that is impossible.

And 10% of the voters vote for someone other than Reps or Dems. Won't happen, but it'd be funny if it did.
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It is not impossible--269 tie
 
This gives me a headache :shock::mrgreen:
 
Here is my prediction:

323 Obama
215 Romney

Although this looks like a rout it will be quite even popular vote wise. You might be surprised about Florida being blue, but I think the Latin vote will carry Obama through there....just. Virginia is another toss up, but Virginia has the one of the lowest unemployment rates in the US and I reckon Obama will squeeze through....just.

With most swing states within the margin of error, it is an unpredictable election.

USElectionmap.jpg
 
Only a few hours left to submit your predictions! Come one, come all!
 
Not really good for the contest, but:

3 and 4 : Romney and Obama, given the distaste of independents for both, could have negative coat-tail effects, wherein voters make themeslves feel better about their Presidential choice by splitting their ticket further down the ballot. Look for the Presidential party tickets to pick up swing counties / states where they lose Representatives / Senators in tight races due to this.
 
Kandahar said:
CONTEST 1 – ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Create an electoral map showing who will win every state + DC (or you can just write the states you’re predicting for each candidate). You get +2 points for each state+DC you pick correctly, and an additional +2 points for every “upset.” An upset is any state that you picked correctly but the majority of participants got wrong.
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2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

Specifically, I predict:

Iowa: Obama +1.3

Wisconsin: Obama +3.36

New Hampshire: Obama +0.6

Ohio: Obama +2

Virginia: Romney +0.06

Nevada: Obama +2.5

Colorado: Obama +0.3

CONTEST 2 – POPULAR VOTE
State what you think the nationwide popular vote percentages (to the nearest tenth of a percent) will be for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. You lose 1 point for each tenth of a percent you are over/under for Obama’s vote share, and you lose 1 point for each tenth of a percent you are over/under for Romney’s vote share. Keep in mind that there are third-party candidates, so the Romney/Obama percentages should add up to slightly less than 100%.
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Obama: 48.5%
Romney: 48%

CONTEST 3 – US SENATE
State which candidate (or which party) you think will win each of the 33 US Senate races. You get +2 points for each state you pick correctly, and an additional +2 points for every “upset.” An upset is any state that you picked correctly but the majority of participants got wrong.
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I put an (*) next to the closest races

Democrats Will Win:
California
Maryland
New York
Vermont
Delaware
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Maine
Hawaii
Michigan
New Jersey
New Mexico
Washington
West Virginia
Connecticut
Florida
Missouri*
Ohio*
Pennsylvania*
Indiana*
Massachusetts*
Virginia*
Wisconsin*


Republicans Will Win:
Mississippi
Texas
Wyoming
Tennessee
Utah
Arizona
Nebraska
Montana*
Nevada*
North Dakota*

Which, if my math is correct, should leave the Senate with 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.

CONTEST 4 – US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
State the TOTAL number of Democrats and the TOTAL number of Republicans you think will win the 435 US House races. Count Independents as belonging to whichever party you think they will caucus with. You lose 1 point for each Republican you are over/under, and you lose 1 point for each Democrat you are over/under. So for example, if you say there will be 225-210 in the Republicans’ favor, but the actual result is 215-220 in the Democrats’ favor, you would lose 20 points total.
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Republicans: 242
Democrats: 193

Specific pickups:

Dems +18: MN8, NV4, TX23, CA52, IL17, NH1, OH6, FL9, IL8, CA47, MD6, IL11, AZ9, FL22, NH2, CA41, FL26, NY24

Reps + 13: IA3, NY27, PA12, NC7, OH16, GA16, UT4, MA6, IN2, CA21, NC11, OK2, NC8
 
cpwill said:
Not really good for the contest, but:

3 and 4 : Romney and Obama, given the distaste of independents for both, could have negative coat-tail effects, wherein voters make themeslves feel better about their Presidential choice by splitting their ticket further down the ballot. Look for the Presidential party tickets to pick up swing counties / states where they lose Representatives / Senators in tight races due to this.
Click to expand...
Interesting point.
 
ELECTORAL VOTE

OBAMA 276
He wins what he won in 2008 LESS the following which add to the GOP column in addition to the states that McCain won in 2008.

New Mexico
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
New Hampshire
Indiana

So basically take all the McCain states in 2008 and add those to the GOP column. Minus those from the ones Obama won in 2008.

POPULAR VOTE

OBAMA 49.78%
ROMNEY 49.35 %
 
Obviously ROMNEY gets 262 in my scenario. Forgot that part.
 
haymarket said:
ELECTORAL VOTE

OBAMA 276
He wins what he won in 2008 LESS the following which add to the GOP column in addition to the states that McCain won in 2008.

New Mexico
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
New Hampshire
Indiana

So basically take all the McCain states in 2008 and add those to the GOP column. Minus those from the ones Obama won in 2008.

POPULAR VOTE

OBAMA 49.78%
ROMNEY 49.35 %
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If there is an Obama victory, that is about how I see it playing out as well. The only question I would have on that list is New Hampshire.
 
Kandahar said:
Here is my entry:

1. My electoral map. Obama wins all the states he won last time except IN, FL, NC, and VA.
2. Obama 49.9%, Romney 48.9%
3. Senate races: Republicans win in AZ, MS, MT, NE, ND, TN, TX, UT, WY. Democrats win in CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, WA, WV, WI. Independents win in ME, VT.
4. 233 Republicans, 202 Democrats.
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Here is my UPDATED prediction.
1. My electoral map. Obama wins all the states he won last time except IN and NC. I now think he'll narrowly win VA and FL.
2. Obama 50.5%, Romney 48.9%
3. Same as before.
4. Same as before.
 
I note that most if not all of you are predicting a narrow Obama win. I haven't been paying any attention to the news or any polls, so I'm wondering...are most or all of the indicators trending towards that? Or is it just what you want to happen?
 
The Mark said:
I note that most if not all of you are predicting a narrow Obama win. I haven't been paying any attention to the news or any polls, so I'm wondering...are most or all of the indicators trending towards that? Or is it just what you want to happen?
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The polls seem to be indicating that a relatively narrow Obama win is the most likely outcome...with a large Obama win somewhat more likely than a narrow Romney win. Obama is currently leading by 2.5% or more in enough states to get him past 270. It seems that Romney's only real chance is to hope that the polls are just wrong (which is possible but unlikely).
 
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Anagram said:
My preliminary projections. (Subject to change.)

1. Obama 303-Romney 235. Obama wins every state he won in 2008 but Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, and Nebraska's First.2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
2. Obama 50%, Romney 48.9%.
3. Republicans win MT, ND, NE, NV, AZ, TX, UT, TN, WY, and MS. Democrats win CA, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, OH, FL, IN, PA, DE, VA, WV, NY, CT, RI, and MA. Independents win in VT, and ME. Democrats 52, Republicans 47, and Angus King.
4. Republicans 234, Democrats 201.
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My final 2012 predictions:

1. Obama 303-Romney 235. Same as before with Obama winning all the states he won in '08 except for FL, NC, IN, and NE-2. I could see Obama winning Florida or losing Virginia or Colorado, though.

2. Obama 50.4%, Romney 48.5%.

3. Same as before with Republicans winning MT, ND, NE, NV, AZ, TX, UT, TN, WY, and MS, and Democrats winning CA, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, OH, FL, IN, PA, DE, VA, MO, MD, MI, NJ, WV, NY, CT, RI, and MA. Independents win in VT, and ME. Democrats 52, Republicans 47, Angus King 1. MT, ND, NV, and MO were the hardest to predict I think. I think Romney's coattails will be enough to drag Rehberg to a win in Montana and Berg in North Dakota, but Obama and Romney's coattails won't be enough to help unpopular candidates in Nevada and Missouri.

4. Pretty much a crap-shoot, but I'll go with Republicans 235-Democrats 200.
 
Anagram said:
My final 2012 predictions:



3. Same as before with Republicans winning MT, ND, NE, NV, AZ, TX, UT, TN, WY, and MS, and Democrats winning CA, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, OH, FL, IN, PA, DE, VA, MO, MD, MI, NJ, WV, NY, CT, RI, and MA. Independents win in VT, and ME. Democrats 52, Republicans 47, Angus King 1. MT, ND, NV, and MO were the hardest to predict I think. I think Romney's coattails will be enough to drag Rehberg to a win in Montana and Berg in North Dakota, but Obama and Romney's coattails won't be enough to help unpopular candidates in Nevada and Missouri.

4. Pretty much a crap-shoot, but I'll go with Republicans 235-Democrats 200.
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I woke up early to beat the 7 am deadline and saw your Congressional picks ----- I must say they match mine almost perfectly. So I will stand down as you beat me to the punch. I do think King will caucus with the Dems to give them a 53 seat total
 
I can really say I don't have a feel for this election....My gut feeling tells me this will be a close win for Obama or a blowout for Romney.
 
Anagram said:
My final 2012 predictions:

1. Obama 303-Romney 235. Same as before with Obama winning all the states he won in '08 except for FL, NC, IN, and NE-2. I could see Obama winning Florida or losing Virginia or Colorado, though.

2. Obama 50.4%, Romney 48.5%.

3. Same as before with Republicans winning MT, ND, NE, NV, AZ, TX, UT, TN, WY, and MS, and Democrats winning CA, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, OH, FL, IN, PA, DE, VA, MO, MD, MI, NJ, WV, NY, CT, RI, and MA. Independents win in VT, and ME. Democrats 52, Republicans 47, Angus King 1. MT, ND, NV, and MO were the hardest to predict I think. I think Romney's coattails will be enough to drag Rehberg to a win in Montana and Berg in North Dakota, but Obama and Romney's coattails won't be enough to help unpopular candidates in Nevada and Missouri.

4. Pretty much a crap-shoot, but I'll go with Republicans 235-Democrats 200.
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So your saying no one gets enough electoral votes?
 
FWIW

Karl Rove's Final Map

Rove-Election2012Final.jpg
 
Florida results are finally in. The final tally is 332-206.

I nailed it, but no need to give me a free Silver membership. I just paid for one. :)
 
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danarhea said:
Florida results are finally in. The final tally is 332-206.

I nailed it, but no need to give me a free Silver membership. I just paid for one. :)
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CNN.com hasn't called Florida yet. If they don't call it in the next two hours, no one gets any points for Florida as per the rules of this contest. :2razz:
 
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danarhea said:
Florida results are finally in. The final tally is 332-206.

I nailed it, but no need to give me a free Silver membership. I just paid for one. :)
Click to expand...
Even though it doesn't matter a bit at this point, I'm kinda wondering about that large number of provisional ballots in Ohio...if I understand things correctly, there's like 250k of them, or something?
 
FINAL RESULTS:

CONTEST 1 - Obama won all the normal blue states + WI, CO, NV, OH, VA, IA, NH. Romney won all the normal red states + NC. No one has won FL as of 6:00 today, so as per the rules of the contest, no one gets points for it. It's almost certain to go for Obama, so those of you who picked Romney to win it lucked out. :2razz:

CONTEST 2 - Popular vote: Obama 50.4%, Romney 48.0%

CONTEST 3 - Dems won Senate races in HI, CA, WA, MT, ND, NM, MN, MO, WI, IN, MI, OH, FL, VA, WV, MD, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA. Reps won Senate races in NV, AZ, UT, WY, NE, TX, MS, TN. Independents won Senate races in VT, ME.

CONTEST 4 - Reps won 240 House seats, Dems won 190 House seats. 5 seats remain uncalled as of the contest deadline.


I'll add up the scores and figure out who won each contest later. ;)
 
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