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2012 Election Prediction Contest

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Kandahar

Kandahar

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Ladies and gents, with less than a week to go before the election, it’s time to get the prediction game going! We are going to keep score to determine who among us is the best predictor of election results. We will have four separate contests, as well as an overall winner.


CONTEST 1 – ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Create an electoral map showing who will win every state + DC (or you can just write the states you’re predicting for each candidate). You get +2 points for each state+DC you pick correctly, and an additional +2 points for every “upset.” An upset is any state that you picked correctly but the majority of participants got wrong.

CONTEST 2 – POPULAR VOTE
State what you think the nationwide popular vote percentages (to the nearest tenth of a percent) will be for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. You lose 1 point for each tenth of a percent you are over/under for Obama’s vote share, and you lose 1 point for each tenth of a percent you are over/under for Romney’s vote share. Keep in mind that there are third-party candidates, so the Romney/Obama percentages should add up to slightly less than 100%.

CONTEST 3 – US SENATE
State which candidate (or which party) you think will win each of the 33 US Senate races. You get +2 points for each state you pick correctly, and an additional +2 points for every “upset.” An upset is any state that you picked correctly but the majority of participants got wrong.

CONTEST 4 – US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
State the TOTAL number of Democrats and the TOTAL number of Republicans you think will win the 435 US House races. Count Independents as belonging to whichever party you think they will caucus with. You lose 1 point for each Republican you are over/under, and you lose 1 point for each Democrat you are over/under. So for example, if you say there will be 225-210 in the Republicans’ favor, but the actual result is 215-220 in the Democrats’ favor, you would lose 20 points total.

RULES:

  • The deadline to submit a prediction is 6:00 AM EST on Tuesday morning. No predictions after this will be accepted.
  • After you submit a prediction, you can resubmit a revised prediction…but it is subject to the same deadline.
  • Each of the 4 contests will have an individual winner. If you like, you can choose to participate in only some of the contests.
  • Additionally, there will be an overall winner. The overall winner will be determined by adding your scores from all four contests. In order to be eligible to be the overall winner, you MUST participate in all 4 contests.
  • If you don’t follow the rules, or if you do anything which makes your answers ambiguous, it’s on you. I will be harsh about scoring your precise meaning.
  • I will be using www.cnn.com to render the verdict on who won each race. If they have not called a race by 6:00 PM EST on the Thursday after Election Day, no one gets any points for it.
 
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Kandahar said:
Ladies and gents, with less than a week to go before the election, it’s time to get the prediction game going! We are going to keep score to determine who among us is the best predictor of election results. We will have four separate contests, as well as an overall winner.


CONTEST 1 – ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Create an electoral map showing who will win every state + DC (or you can just write the states you’re predicting for each candidate). You get +2 points for each state+DC you pick correctly, and an additional +2 points for every “upset.” An upset is any state that you picked correctly but the majority of participants got wrong.

CONTEST 2 – POPULAR VOTE
State what you think the nationwide popular vote percentages (to the nearest tenth of a percent) will be for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. You lose 1 point for each tenth of a percent you are over/under for Obama’s vote share, and you lose 1 point for each tenth of a percent you are over/under for Romney’s vote share.

CONTEST 3 – US SENATE
State which candidate (or which party) you think will win each of the 33 US Senate races. You get +2 points for each state you pick correctly, and an additional +2 points for every “upset.” An upset is any state that you picked correctly but the majority of participants got wrong.

CONTEST 4 – US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
State the TOTAL number of Democrats and the TOTAL number of Republicans you think will win each of the 435 US House races. Count Independents as belonging to whichever party you think they will caucus with. You lose 1 point for each Republican you are over/under, and you lose 1 point for each Democrat you are over/under. So for example, if you say there will be 225-210 in the Republicans’ favor, but the actual result is 215-220 in the Democrats’ favor, you would lose 20 points total.

RULES:

  • The deadline to submit a prediction is 6:00 AM EST on Tuesday morning. No predictions after this will be accepted.
  • After you submit a prediction, you can resubmit a revised prediction…but it is subject to the same deadline.
  • Each of the 4 contests will have an individual winner. If you like, you can choose to participate in only some of the contests.
  • Additionally, there will be an overall winner. The overall winner will be determined by adding your scores from all four contests. In order to be eligible to be the overall winner, you MUST participate in all 4 contests.
  • If you don’t follow the rules, or if you do anything which makes your answers ambiguous, it’s on you. I will be harsh about scoring your precise meaning.
  • I will be using CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News to render the verdict on who won each race. If they have not called a race by 6:00 PM EST on the Thursday after Election Day, no one gets any points for it.
Click to expand...

1. romney more than 270, obama less than 270
2. romney more than obama
3.senate, GOP takes control by 1
4. house, GOP gains 4 seats.

I know thats not what you wanted but since you offered no prize money.
 
Here is my entry:

1. My electoral map. Obama wins all the states he won last time except IN, FL, NC, and VA.
2. Obama 49.9%, Romney 48.9%
3. Senate races: Republicans win in AZ, MS, MT, NE, ND, TN, TX, UT, WY. Democrats win in CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, WA, WV, WI. Independents win in ME, VT.
4. 233 Republicans, 202 Democrats.
 
Contest 1: Obama 332 Romney 206
 
My preliminary projections. (Subject to change.)

1. Obama 303-Romney 235. Obama wins every state he won in 2008 but Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, and Nebraska's First.2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
2. Obama 50%, Romney 48.9%.
3. Republicans win MT, ND, NE, NV, AZ, TX, UT, TN, WY, and MS. Democrats win CA, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, OH, FL, IN, PA, DE, VA, WV, NY, CT, RI, and MA. Independents win in VT, and ME. Democrats 52, Republicans 47, and Angus King.
4. Republicans 234, Democrats 201.
 
Kandahar said:
Here is my entry:

1. My electoral map. Obama wins all the states he won last time except IN, FL, NC, and VA.
Click to expand...

Same, except I predict Obama will take VA. Obama 303 Romney 235

2. Obama 51% Romney 48.3%

Haven't paid enough attention to the majority of congressional races to make a prediction.
 
Stealing Anagram's format, I differ slightly in the electoral map and I give Indiana to the Republicans despite that guys bone headed comments on rape. I still think he'll win. I also think the GOP will hold two more seats than Anagram in the House.

Here are my predictions:


1. My electoral map
Obama 303
Romney 235

2. Obama 50.1%
Romney 48.4%

3. Republicans win MT, IN, ND, NE, NV, AZ, TX, UT, TN, WY, and MS.
Democrats win CA, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, OH, FL, PA, DE, VA, WV, NY, CT, RI, and MA.
Independents win in VT, and ME.
Democrats 52, Republicans 48, and Angus King.

4. Republicans 236, Democrats 199.​
 
My predictions of Contest 1 & 2, which may see an update:

1. 2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction! This will probably be the biggest Romney prediction of all DPers, I may as well take the risk of being last place! :mrgreen: Romney 337-201. Romney takes WI, MI, PA, OH, VA, NC, FL, CO, NV, and NH.

2. Romney 53.1%, Obama 45.4%
 
1. 270-268 rombot 2.0 2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

2. Romney 48.5% Obama 49% Other 2.5%

3. GOP AZ, MS, MT, NE, ND, TN, TX, UT, WY, VA, ME, VT. Democrats win in CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, WA, WV, WI.

4. 237 Republicans, 198 Democrats
 
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I've got a prediction.....Obama will lose, and liberals will riot!

I know that's not going out on too far of a limb, but I like to play the odds.

Romney 51%, Obama 47%

Romney wins FL, WI, NH.

Dems keep Senate by 1 seat, and Republicans gain 5 seats in House.
 
poweRob said:
Nope... too late. Kandahar, disqualify this guy.
Click to expand...

Not Tuesday yet, but since the election is over and Obama has lost already, you do have a fair argument against me :)
 
Fisher said:
Not Tuesday yet, but since the election is over and Obama has lost already, you do have a fair argument against me :)
Click to expand...

You people need to stop it with this prediction. I'm out of room in my signature. It's going to be a long day for me next Wednesday having to collect all those embarrassment points from all of you guys.
 
poweRob said:
You people need to stop it with this prediction. I'm out of room in my signature. It's going to be a long day for me next Wednesday having to collect all those embarrassment points from all of you guys.
Click to expand...

Just screen cap them and you can post them in as photos when needed.
 
poweRob said:
You people need to stop it with this prediction. I'm out of room in my signature. It's going to be a long day for me next Wednesday having to collect all those embarrassment points from all of you guys.
Click to expand...

Add my crazy prediction!
 
I'm going to wait a tad longer before I play.
 
Masada said:
I've got a prediction.....Obama will lose, and liberals will riot!

Romney wins FL, WI, NH.
Click to expand...
I hate to break it to you...but if those are the only 3 swing states Romney wins.....he loses.
 
Senate: R 52 - SAPs 48
R vs. O: 6 Points Popular vote; Romney over 300 E votes (320)
House: Rs 239 - SAPs 196
 
Krhazy said:
Did you mean to make Indiana blue, or was that a boo-boo?

If not, interesting strategic decision.
Click to expand...

There are no mistakes in my map. It is as I expect it to be as I am crowned the winner of the DP Derby 2012.
 
Fisher said:
There are no mistakes in my map. It is as I expect it to be as I am crowned the winner of the DP Derby 2012.
Click to expand...

Mkay, but Romney is a 12.5% favorite in Indiana....
 
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