You don’t know how bad it is

[jamesbyoung]

Re: You don’t know how bad it is

You all be safe.

And, yes, they may become horrific in the next two months.

 

[JANFU]

Sounds like fear mongering to the max.

You got a Certificate of schooling for that??

 

[Jetboogieman]

No idea what you are talking about, clearly you are shook about something,

But to expect this not to affect the economy is wishful thinking, but to think that it's going to keep down the economy is fear mongering to me.

There isn't one industry that has not been affected by this....healthcare had to change the way they do things, etc......but there is also not one industry that can't come back from this.....

Take a company like Tyson Foods....let's say for ****s n giggles they have 50,000 employees before this all hit, but now, they let 20K go....and are operating at 50%......so yes, 20K employees hit unemployment, a hit to the economy, but when this blows through, and it will, does anyone think Tyson food is going to remain at 50%, no, they are going to go on a hiring spree, they will need people to work, and may hire more than 20K, who knows.

Point is, all the jobs that have stopped, will be coming back.....

I have stated, since, that depending on how long this goes on, we could, potentially, maybe spend our way out of this mess, but you're being woefully optimistic about the speed at which we can recover from what is the largest, cataclysmic event since WWII in terms of it's scale and affect on the world, you guys are totally in denial.

I made two central claims in my OP:

That this was going to be massively economically damaging.

And that the number of Covid cases was going to explode.

I was correct, on both counts and if you think this is going to be over quickly or that the stimulus is enough, I don't know what drugs you're smoking especially when it would take very skillful execution to make a stimulus of that scale effective, and you've got man child in charge that's turned it largely into his personal slush fund to give out as he sees fit.

You say you don't know what I'm talking about, well we can't have that sjmay, anything you don't understand I'll explain to you.

 

[sjmay]

I have stated, since, that depending on how long this goes on, we could, potentially, maybe spend our way out of this mess, but you're being woefully optimistic about the speed at which we can recover from what is the largest, cataclysmic event since WWII in terms of it's scale and affect on the world, you guys are totally in denial.

I made two central claims in my OP:

That this was going to be massively economically damaging.

And that the number of Covid cases was going to explode.

I was correct, on both counts and if you think this is going to be over quickly or that the stimulus is enough, I don't know what drugs you're smoking especially when it would take very skillful execution to make a stimulus of that scale effective, and you've got man child in charge that's turned it largely into his personal slush fund to give out as he sees fit.

You say you don't know what I'm talking about, well we can't have that sjmay, anything you don't understand I'll explain to you.

Well, explain what it is that you are talking about, if the only thing you have is OMG Unemployment.....well....ok...and? Anyone who didn't see that coming is a ****ing moron....and anyone who thinks those jobs are permanently gone, is one as well.....

 

[Jack Fabulous]

Unbelievable. Anyone who cannot comprehend the starkness of that graphic is someone who didn't bother to spend 29 seconds of their life to watch it.

I have 17 of 26 employees on furlough right now. After tomorrow it will be 18 of 26. As long as no one is going in for an eye exam, the entire industry is at a stand still. Tens of thousands unemployed already and I got word today that executive level positions and salary reductions are next up.

I'll be shocked if nationwide unemployment stays below 30%.

The global economy can only last for a so long when no one is working. If things don't start to get back to normal soon, the whole thing will just tip the **** over.

 

[DiAnna]

What do you think happens when this blows over? Those 17 million jobs are poof, gone, never to return?

Yes, many of them will be "poof, gone, never to return" because the small businesses that created them will not survive the economic disaster this pandemic has wrought. How many will be gone forever is yet to be known, but I can guaran-damn-tee that it will be in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

 

[sjmay]

I have 17 of 26 employees on furlough right now. After tomorrow it will be 18 of 26. As long as no one is going in for an eye exam, the entire industry is at a stand still. Tens of thousands unemployed already and I got word today that executive level positions and salary reductions are next up.

I'll be shocked if nationwide unemployment stays below 30%.

The global economy can only last for a so long when no one is working. If things don't start to get back to normal soon, the whole thing will just tip the **** over.

So are you saying that when this blows over, those employees jobs are gone? Because that is what a few people posting here either believe, or want people to believe....

Or GOD forbid, you have to close up shop....when this blows over, are you saying that there's no way you would open up again?

 

[sjmay]

Yes, many of them will be "poof, gone, never to return" because the small businesses that created them will not survive the economic disaster this pandemic has wrought. How many will be gone forever is yet to be known, but I can guaran-damn-tee that it will be in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

You're right, the MILLIONS of small business owners, who are going to get wrecked in this, they are just going to roll over and die....and go be a company person....because that's why they started a business....oh wait....you mean they will start up again?

You are doing a huge disservice against these small business owners.....

 

[Jetboogieman]

Well, explain what it is that you are talking about, if the only thing you have is OMG Unemployment.....well....ok...and? Anyone who didn't see that coming is a ****ing moron....and anyone who thinks those jobs are permanently gone, is one as well.....

smjay... It took years to recover from the scale of the 2008 financial crisis and in many metrics the economy never truly recovered, as evidenced by interest rates remaining at historic lows in order to continue fueling yet another bubble economy that was drunk on cheap credit that the Fed had unleashed years prior.

In fact this whole situation burst a bubble that was brewing under the surface already, that many companies were massively over-leveraged with business loans and that the banks had facilitated yet another bubble, not unlike 2008 and that alarm was being raised last year and no one paid attention, so what happened when cash flow suddenly stopped the way it did, a lot of these companies had very little room to deal with this and I'm not saying it would have been roses and sunshine if they weren't overleveraged, but it certainly contributed to the extreme pace and severity this crisis has wrought.

It was only a matter of time, yes, one day, maybe we can recover, but you gotta be Nucking Futs to suggest that there'll be a magic switch given the scale of this and it's just gonna come roaring back like this was no thang, there is severe damage being done to the economy right now that is not gonna be easily recoverable in a short space of time.

 

[JANFU]

Sounds like fear mongering to the max.

Nice sig

I've been here over 5 years and that is the best you can do from my 28 K plus posts

 

[DiAnna]

I have 17 of 26 employees on furlough right now. After tomorrow it will be 18 of 26. As long as no one is going in for an eye exam, the entire industry is at a stand still. Tens of thousands unemployed already and I got word today that executive level positions and salary reductions are next up.

I'll be shocked if nationwide unemployment stays below 30%.

The global economy can only last for a so long when no one is working. If things don't start to get back to normal soon, the whole thing will just tip the **** over.

I'm sorry to hear that you are being so personally affected. Some people seem so blissfully unaware of what's happening beyond their own front porch. My best wishes for you and yours. Stay safe.

 

[VanceMack]

The question is not whether or not the results of COVID -19 are devastating...they are. Its a global pandemic...a new viral strain without a vaccine and a known 100% reliable cure. The only way to combat it effectively to date has been to shut things down, almost entirely. Its going to cost a LOT.

The question is...is the economic model and engine sound? Once it is fired back up, will the mechanism already in place operate as before, and what will be required to prime the carbs, so to speak. My guess and estimate is, aside from the human toll, its probably going to cost the US alone about 8 trillion when its all said and done to get the engine running on all cylinders again. Thats a huge amount. If so...so be it. We will have to figure out what that looks like, how we will pay it down, or if we will at some point just decide to take some very extreme measures and follow Japans model and sell its debt back to its own central bank, paying the government its own interest.

 

[sjmay]

smjay... It took years to recover from the scale of the 2008 financial crisis and in many metrics the economy never truly recovered, as evidenced by interest rates remaining at historic lows in order to continue fueling yet another bubble economy that was drunk on cheap credit that the Fed had unleashed years prior.

In fact this whole situation burst a bubble that was brewing under the surface already, that many companies were massively over-leveraged with business loans and that the banks had facilitated yet another bubble, not unlike 2008 and that alarm was being raised last year and no one paid attention, so what happened when cash flow suddenly stopped the way it did, a lot of these companies had very little room to deal with this and I'm not saying it would have been roses and sunshine if they weren't overleveraged, but it certainly contributed to the extreme pace and severity this crisis has wrought.

It was only a matter of time, yes, one day, maybe we can recover, but you gotta be Nucking Futs to suggest that there'll be a magic switch given the scale of this and it's just gonna come roaring back like this was no thang, there is severe damage being done to the economy right now that is not gonna be easily recoverable in a short space of time.

Of course it's going to come roaring back, depending on your definition of that.....unless you think unemployment of 50% is sustainable.....you want to talk about ****ing nuts?

The companies that are open now, being essentially, your food production, farms, household goods (cleaners, papers etc) they are not running at 100%, the amount of production has fell swiftly this past week and last, and doesn't look like it's gonna ramp up next week either.....

When this does blow over, they WILL BE ramping up to 100%, that means hiring more people, creating more jobs etc......That's just the companies that are open now...the ones that are closed......the ones that survive, will be hiring again, and the ones that don't survive, will either be reborn, or join the job market themselves.....

 

[DiAnna]

You're right, the MILLIONS of small business owners, who are going to get wrecked in this, they are just going to roll over and die....and go be a company person....because that's why they started a business....oh wait....you mean they will start up again?

You are doing a huge disservice against these small business owners.....

I said hundreds of thousands or even millions of JOBS created by small business. Reading is fundamental.

 

[sjmay]

The question is not whether or not the results of COVID -19 are devastating...they are. Its a global pandemic...a new viral strain without a vaccine and a known 100% reliable cure. The only way to combat it effectively to date has been to shut things down, almost entirely. Its going to cost a LOT.

The question is...is the economic model and engine sound? Once it is fired back up, will the mechanism already in place operate as before, and what will be required to prime the carbs, so to speak. My guess and estimate is, aside from the human toll, its probably going to cost the US alone about 8 trillion when its all said and done to get the engine running on all cylinders again. Thats a huge amount. If so...so be it. We will have to figure out what that looks like, how we will pay it down, or if we will at some point just decide to take some very extreme measures and follow Japans model and sell its debt back to its own central bank, paying the government its own interest.

This, no one is saying there isn't going to be damage economically, but the OP is literally the definition of chicken little.... but as you said, the mechanisms, are sound, at least, to me they are....there absolutely will be tweaks to it....but for the most part, it works.

 

[sjmay]

I said hundreds of thousands or even millions of JOBS created by small business. Reading is fundamental.

You say reading is fundamental, well **** ma'am, so is critical thinking, how many small business owners do you think there are in a 350 million population? 10?

 

[grip]

Jet's not kidding folks. This from my thread: Fed Buys Entire Financial System

Fed Is Seizing Control of the Entire U.S. Bond Market

The Federal Reserve is not leaving any corner of the U.S. bond market behind in this crisis.

There's no other way to interpret the central bank's sweeping measures announced Thursday, which together provide as much as $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. It will wade into the $3.9 trillion U.S. municipal-bond market to an unprecedented degree.

In the quest to find markets that look like they will weather an impending economic downturn, many investors are turning to the Federal Reserve.

The central bank, faced with seizing markets during the spread of the new coronavirus, pledged in March to do essentially whatever it takes to restore order in the marketplace. The handful of markets in which it has directly intervened by purchasing assets or lending against them have recouped some of their losses since then, a reassuring sign for investors who were taken aback by the indiscriminate selling that occurred throughout much of March.

All this, of course, is in addition to the Fed's relentless purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities. BlackRock Inc. said on Wednesday that the central bank's balance sheet would most likely grow to more than $10 trillion in the coming year from $4.2 trillion at the start of 2020 and would potentially exceed 50% of nominal U.S. gross domestic product.

"Our emergency measures are reserved for truly rare circumstances such as those we face today," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a webcast Thursday. "When the economy is well on its way back to recovery, and private markets and institutions are once again able to perform their vital functions of channeling credit and supporting economic growth, we will put these emergency tools away."

Calling the Fed's actions "throwing the kitchen sink" at the bond markets seems like a huge understatement. It's extending its reach into everything, which is probably fine for now. The tricky part will be knowing when and how to let go.

"It's tough for the Fed to basically buy the whole financial system," said Roberto Perli, a former Fed economist and head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro. "They have to prioritize and say, 'Hey, what is the most urgent need?'

What this means is that the Fed is expanding credit to corporations giving them tons of liquidity to pay bills and salaries. But without sales and purchases, they will still cut benefits and layoff employees by the truckloads. Corporations will not take any unwanted losses to keep up inventory or workers on their payrolls out of goodwill and loyalty. These unemployed will also not be able to pay their bills or spend, thereby hurting the businesses and creating inflation.

It's a vicious cycle unless the gov gives more of the relief funds directly to the public instead of feeding companies with tons of cash. This is like putting a big bandaid on a cut artery. Borrowing now amounts to a transfer of economic activity from the future to the present. The payback comes later. And later won't be that long.

 

[TobyOne]

Most are restaurant or hospitality. Those industries will come back.

Next time, we shouldn't listen to the histrionic left. Our economy would be better off. The "models" they use ended up being complete BS and here we are.

Seventeen million unemployment claims in three weeks?? "It's not that bad"????? That is a ridiculous claim, utterly ridiculous. Right now unemployment in America is highest since the Great Depression and it happened in the blink of an eye!

Instead of telling others to "take a nap", perhaps you should consider waking up from yours.

 

[Jack Fabulous]

So are you saying that when this blows over, those employees jobs are gone? Because that is what a few people posting here either believe, or want people to believe....

Or GOD forbid, you have to close up shop....when this blows over, are you saying that there's no way you would open up again?

WHEN this is over will determine everything. If things continue on the trajectory that it appears we are on, social distancing guidelines will go away sometime in early May and that will mean "non essential" businesses can start opening back up again. Give it another month or so and things could easily be back to where they were prior to all of this.

I see this as "best case scenario". It's not the only scenario, though.

Let's say this thing drags into the summer. Now were talking about about a whole different set of circumstances for businesses which depend on summer tourism dollars which will suddenly be shuttered during their "boom time". More layoffs, more people on unemployment, the system being more overwhelmed than it is already.

It will break much sooner than people realize. All of the "funny money" in the world won't be able to save it.

 

[hermit]

Ok, just going to throw this out there.

What if on the other side of all this chaos and apparent destruction is something really beautiful?

What if the majority of us are coming into an understanding that we are not separate from each other, that we are all in this together?

What if we create a new society that is more equitable for everyone?

What if we become better stewards of our planet, and of our brothers and sisters all over the globe? What if we start really caring for humanity and not just money, rock stars, sports stars, and other distractions?

What doesn't kill us is going to make us stronger, more compassionate, and more aware. I see good things coming out of this apparent horror show that is currently playing. Time will tell. One thing is for certain...fear is not going to get us anywhere good. We need to face fear full on and destroy its stranglehold on us. We are strong and resourceful and we will beat whatever challenges are facing us today. There is no other way to be or think.

 

[Jetboogieman]

Of course it's going to come roaring back, depending on your definition of that.....unless you think unemployment of 50% is sustainable.....you want to talk about ****ing nuts?

You're a consumer based economy with millions of citizens that it was reported last year, around 40% of which would not be able to handle a $400 emergency with now the highest unemployment numbers in modern history at lightning speed, are you out of your mind?

Like dude, who's gonna have the capacity to spend, beyond the basics, to bring the economy to life, if people can't afford food, they're not running out to buy the latest iPhone or TV or Games Console, again you're ignoring history and precedence in how long it could take to recover from something this large in a consumer based economy that's consumers were almost tapped out and its businesses already over-leveraged just prior to this occurring.

We have the structure, we have the infrastructure, so recovery is possible yes, you're trying to make it out to seem like it's gonna happen at lightning speed and history tells us, by scale of comparison that is mental.

The companies that are open now, being essentially, your food production, farms, household goods (cleaners, papers etc) they are not running at 100%, the amount of production has fell swiftly this past week and last, and doesn't look like it's gonna ramp up next week either.....

When this does blow over, they WILL BE ramping up to 100%, that means hiring more people, creating more jobs etc......That's just the companies that are open now...the ones that are closed......the ones that survive, will be hiring again, and the ones that don't survive, will either be reborn, or join the job market themselves.....

Just like that, like ****ing magic?

Ludicrous, utterly ludicrous.

 

[sjmay]

WHEN this is over will determine everything. If things continue on the trajectory that it appears we are on, social distancing guidelines will go away sometime in early May and that will mean "non essential" businesses can start opening back up again. Give it another month or so and things could easily be back to where they were prior to all of this.

I see this as "best case scenario". It's not the only scenario, though.

Let's say this thing drags into the summer. Now were talking about about a whole different set of circumstances for businesses which depend on summer tourism dollars which will suddenly be shuttered during their "boom time". More layoffs, more people on unemployment, the system being more overwhelmed than it is already.

It will break much sooner than people realize. All of the "funny money" in the world won't be able to save it.

True, but I am asking your opinion, since you are a SBA who has employees,

Let's say this lasts til May, how will you be? July? September? etc?

People in here want people to believe that the jobs you have let go, are done forever, never coming back.

If you shut down and never open up another shop, they are right, though they would just re-enter a job market that would be roaring back....

 

[JANFU]

:2wave:

Easter Bunny was going to rid the world of C19

 

[sjmay]

You're a consumer based economy with millions of citizens that it was reported last year, around 40% of which would not be able to handle a $400 emergency with now the highest unemployment numbers in modern history at lightning speed, are you out of your mind?

Like dude, who's gonna have the capacity to spend, beyond the basics, to bring the economy to life, if people can't afford food, they're not running out to buy the latest iPhone or TV or Games Console, again you're ignoring history and precedence in how long it could take to recover from something this large in a consumer based economy that's consumers were almost tapped out and its businesses already over-leveraged just prior to this occurring.

We have the structure, we have the infrastructure, so recovery is possible yes, you're trying to make it out to seem like it's gonna happen at lightning speed and history tells us, by scale of comparison that is mental.



Just like that, like ****ing magic?

Ludicrous, utterly ludicrous.

For food, absolutely just like that.....and again, those people will be working....earning money, and buying things, who the **** said it would be a week, or a year? You are acting like life as you know it is ****ing over and there's no hope, everyone should slit their ****ing throat right now and get it over with quickly......

 

[JANFU]

What do you think happens when this blows over? Those 17 million jobs are poof, gone, never to return?

They will suddenly appear with the Easter Bunny, but not this year