Will Bloomberg be the nominee?

[Surrealistik]

It'll be in the bag come Super Tuesday... Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Whoever wins any 2 out of those 3 will be the nominee.... the momentum gathered by that point will steamroller Bloomberg come Super Tuesday. Bloomberg is like John Connolly going after the Republican nomination in 1980 - he spent the most money and ended up with 1 delegate at the convention. Why? Because the Republicans weren't willing to trust a party switcher. It'll be the same for Bloomberg.

Well yeah. I mean even assuming Iowa and NH don't decide things then and there, which they probably will, and if they do, Sanders is probably nominee.

I wanted to avoid being presumptive.

 

[The Mark]

No.The Democrats don't like old rich white men.

*coughs loudly while looking at Sanders and Biden, the top two nominee candidates currently*.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

I mean I suppose you could argue Sanders isn't really "rich" because he only has a bit over $1mil or something.
I suppose it's relative.

 

[Bullseye]

Other than his narcissism what concerns me most about Bloomberg is his money. By entirely self-funding he becomes an ideological tyrant. No competing arguments or backers influencing his political direction. How is that going to mess with the Democratic platform passed at the convention? We spent eight years hearing Obama attack "millionaires and billionaires" for every wrong in society and now the Dems are possibly going to nominate one?

On a side note, he's bombarding California, at least in my area, with commercials. In one he brags about spending his own money on 21 House elections in 2108. Does that bother anyone that the voice of the people in those districts were possibly subverted by an out-of-side ideologue? Aren't House seats supposed to be the voice of the people FROM THE DISTRICT?

 

[Cordelier]

Well yeah. I mean even assuming Iowa and NH don't decide things then and there, which they probably will, and if they do, Sanders is probably nominee.

I wanted to avoid being presumptive.

Iowa is a tricky one to figure out.... caucuses can you some pretty unexpected swings. I'm thinking you see Klobuchar's support swing to Biden and that'll be enough to push him over the top. New Hampshire goes to Sanders, and then that sets up the final battle in South Carolina, and Biden pulls out the win. Look for a Biden-Klobuchar ticket.

 

[charliebrown]

An old saying I remember is "Money talks, BS walks". I am wondering if this saying is proved correct with Bloomsberg. He keeps creeping up in the polls.

 

[Surrealistik]

Iowa is a tricky one to figure out.... caucuses can you some pretty unexpected swings. I'm thinking you see Klobuchar's support swing to Biden and that'll be enough to push him over the top. New Hampshire goes to Sanders, and then that sets up the final battle in South Carolina, and Biden pulls out the win. Look for a Biden-Klobuchar ticket.

I doubt it, and the reason why is both Bernie's lead in Iowa, the trend of his support there (rising vs Biden falling, or more generously, Biden being outsurged), and his young and motivated base which has a clear advantage at enduring the rigours of a caucus. Further, if you would assume that Klobuchar's supporters get onside with Biden, it would be just as reasonable to assume Warren sides with Bernie, in which case Biden still loses.

Biden would basically need to absorb both Klobuchar and Buttigieg, and that's a moonshot at best.

 

[Cordelier]

I doubt it, and the reason why is both Bernie's lead in Iowa, the trend of his support there (rising vs Biden falling), and his young and motivated base which has an advantage at enduring the rigours of a caucus. Further, if you would assume that Klobuchar's supporters get onside with Biden, it would be just as reasonable to assume Warren sides with Bernie, in which case Biden still loses.

Biden would basically need to absorb both Klobuchar and Buttigieg, and that's a moonshot at best.

Ahhh.... but the key number is 15% - you've got to have that to get any delegates in Iowa. Warren and Buttigieg are right on that bubble, so their supporters will stick with them.... Klobuchar is at 9% - so the question that needs to be answered is who is going to be their second choice? I'd say at least half of them go to Biden. It'll be tight, but I'm picking Biden by a hair over Sanders.... come Tuesday, it'll effectively be a 4 horse race... we'll have a top tier of Sanders and Biden... and a lower tier of Warren and Buttigieg.

 

[Acadia]

I say no. The left tends to heavily disagree with his Stop and Frisk.The left tends to hate the super-rich,sure they don't mind Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren or Nancy Pelosi rich.

But, imho, the Left will forgive anyone anything as long as it's in the pursuit of beating/removing Trump. I think the DNC has already signaled that all is forgiven by changing their own rules to open the door for Bloomberg.
In 2016, they befouled themselves for Hillary Clinton's money. In 2020, they'll do the same for Bloomberg and he is worth SO much more.

 

[Surrealistik]

Ahhh.... but the key number is 15% - you've got to have that to get any delegates in Iowa. Warren and Buttigieg are right on that bubble, so their supporters will stick with them.... Klobuchar is at 9% - so the question that needs to be answered is who is going to be their second choice? I'd say at least half of them go to Biden. It'll be tight, but I'm picking Biden by a hair over Sanders.... come Tuesday, it'll effectively be a 4 horse race... we'll have a top tier of Sanders and Biden... and a lower tier of Warren and Buttigieg.

Even if this goes exactly as you suggest, you would be assuming more or less a rigid adherence of outcomes to current aggregated polling averages, and I don't find that this will be ultimately accurate.

Two things I feel that undermine your projection, and give me confidence in a Sanders win, even assuming Klobuchar defections:

#1: The nature of caucuses belonging to the young; a younger and more motivated base (i.e. Sanders') has a clear advantage that outsizes polling. It's difficult to say the extent of this advantage in points, but I think it'll be worth at the very least a couple effectively.

#2: The fact that the most recent polling has Sanders up 5-7%.

 

[Cordelier]

Even if this goes exactly as you suggest, you would be assuming more or less a rigid adherence of outcomes to current aggregated polling averages, and I don't find that this will be ultimately accurate.

Two things I feel that undermine your projection, and give me confidence in a Sanders win, even assuming Klobuchar defections:

#1: The nature of caucuses belonging to the young; a younger and more motivated base (i.e. Sanders') has a clear advantage that outsizes polling. It's difficult to say the extent of this advantage in points, but I think it'll be worth at the very least a couple effectively.

#2: The fact that the most recent polling has Sanders up 5-7%.

You could very well be right... it'll be close either way. I think Buttigieg's support is going to be softer than Warren's... so who do you figure his breakaways go to?

Warren and Sanders are each other's worst enemies... they're both going after the same votes, and neither one is ceding any ground to the other. If either one of them dropped out, the other would win the nomination easily. The moderate vote is a lot more fluid. That's going to serve Biden well in Iowa.

 

[Surrealistik]

You could very well be right... it'll be close either way. I think Buttigieg's support is going to be softer than Warren's... so who do you figure his breakaways go to?

Warren and Sanders are each other's worst enemies... they're both going after the same votes, and neither one is ceding any ground to the other. If either one of them dropped out, the other would win the nomination easily. The moderate vote is a lot more fluid. That's going to serve Biden well in Iowa.

To be honest, the 'electability' axis is probably the more relevant one in practice than ideology; this is notably true when we consider the abundance of people supporting Biden who have Sanders as their second choice of all people (and this is true of Warren's people as well); effectively, Biden's strength as a candidate is overwhelmingly predicated on his ability to project superior electability, and if that narrative is undermined (such as via polling, and caucus argumentation), and if Warren's supporters lose confidence in her as they seem to be doing, Sanders obviously benefits immensely.

I'm not sure on what basis you assume that the moderate vote is more fluid; I can see this being argued on the basis that Sanders easily has the most committed and locked down voters, but this is to Sanders' net benefit, not detriment.

 

[Cordelier]

To be honest, the 'electability' axis is probably the more relevant one in practice than ideology; this is notably true when we consider the abundance of people supporting Biden who have Sanders as their second choice of all people (and this is true of Warren's people as well); effectively, Biden's strength as a candidate is overwhelmingly predicated on his ability to project superior electability, and if that narrative is undermined (such as via polling, and caucus argumentation), and if Warren's supporters lose confidence in her as they seem to be doing, Sanders obviously benefits immensely.

I'm not sure on what basis you assume that the moderate vote is more fluid; I can see this being argued on the basis that Sanders easily has the most committed and locked down voters, but this is to Sanders' net benefit, not detriment.

It'd be to Sanders' benefit if Warren's vote wasn't equally committed and locked down. That's the difference between a liberal and a moderate... liberals will stick to their guns and support their candidate no matter what. Moderates are more committed to actually winning than having any commitment to a particular candidate... and for that reason alone, that is why the moderate vote is more fluid. I predict we'll see Klobuchar drop out after Iowa and Buttigeig will drop out after New Hampshire... and every exit will just serve to bolster Biden's campaign.

 

[Surrealistik]

It'd be to Sanders' benefit if Warren's vote wasn't equally committed and locked down. That's the difference between a liberal and a moderate... liberals will stick to their guns and support their candidate no matter what. Moderates are more committed to actually winning than having any commitment to a particular candidate... and for that reason alone, that is why the moderate vote is more fluid. I predict we'll see Klobuchar drop out after Iowa and Buttigeig will drop out after New Hampshire... and every exit will just serve to bolster Biden's campaign.

But it's not, that's the point, or at least I've yet to see any numbers that suggest it is.

Hell, probably the most compelling proof of its fluidity and ability to move is Warren's two major collapses correlated with rises in Sanders' polling: the first when she waffled on MFA, and the second when she accused him of saying that a woman couldn't win.

 

[Cordelier]

But it's not, that's the point, or at least I've yet to see any numbers that suggest it is.

Hell, probably the most compelling proof of its fluidity and ability to move is Warren's two major collapses correlated with rises in Sanders' polling: the first when she waffled on MFA, and the second when she accused him of saying that a woman couldn't win.

I don't see Warren's nor Sanders' support eroding much when they both go into mutually neighboring New Hampshire.... do you? In fact, I just see the two of them continuously butting heads while Biden lets them fight it out, all the while picking up support from people dropping out.

 

[Surrealistik]

I don't see Warren's nor Sanders' support eroding much when they both go into mutually neighboring New Hampshire.... do you? In fact, I just see the two of them continuously butting heads while Biden lets them fight it out, all the while picking up support from people dropping out.

Well the trends are Sanders way up, and Warren down, and Sanders seems to have demonstrably benefited from Warren weakening per existing trends.

Further, per the latest NH poll Sanders was leading there by double digits (+15 per American Research Group).

If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, as I feel he probably will, that will seriously impact if not completely destroy Biden's electability argument which is the only thing really keeping him afloat; that plus momentum will probably mean Sanders as nominee short of some form of robbery at the convention (brokering or superdelegates), particularly when Biden is threatening to go beneath the crucial 15% threshold in California needed for delegates.

 

[Cordelier]

Well the trends are Sanders way up, and Warren down, and Sanders seems to have demonstrably benefited from Warren weakening per existing trends.

Further, per the latest NH poll Sanders was leading there by double digits (+15 per American Research Group).

If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, as I feel he probably will, that will seriously impact if not completely destroy Biden's electability argument which is the only thing really keeping him afloat; that plus momentum will probably mean Sanders as nominee short of some form of robbery at the convention (brokering or superdelegates), particularly when Biden is threatening to go beneath the crucial 15% threshold in California needed for delegates.

I agree... if Sanders does win Iowa and New Hampshire, the nomination is his.... like I said earlier, it all boils down to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - whoever wins any 2 out of those 3 will be the presumptive nominee come Super Tuesday. By the time Bloomberg's strength starts showing up, it'll already be over. New Hampshire is Sanders' to lose... South Carolina is Biden's.... so essentially whoever wins tomorrow night is probably going to be the nominee.

 

[redrover]

I doubt it, since Bloomberg has stated that he will heavily financially support any DNC POTUS nominee. IMHO, he is just planning to ensure that Sanders is not allowed to win even if Biden implodes.

If we are going to insist on going full geriatric, I would rather go with Bloomberg. Bernie has never been a very effective senator think Bloomberg has actually gotten more done for the country than Bernie. No matter which one of these senior citizens we pick, I hope they select an energetic VP with some life ahead of them.

 

[Perotista]

The impeachment/trial sucked all the oxygen out of the Democratic Primary election debates and candidates campaigns, plus grounded the 3 Democratic senators still in the election - the only legitimate candidates they had. This cut a clear path for Michael Bloomberg, who claims Elizabeth Warren talking about breaking up the 2 largest monopolies on earth (Amazon and Google) makes her "too radical.' You'll never hear Bloomberg criticizing any fellow mega billionaire or mega billion dollar corporation. According to Bloomberg, the 14th richest man on earth, all the other Democrats for president are "too radical" for promising universal healthcare, free college, erasing student debts etc.

The DNC just changed their rules for the debate exclusively to get Bloomberg, a 77 year old white male New York moderate Republican, into the debates. The MSM and press - all now entirely owned by Bloomberg's fellow mega billionaires and mega billion dollar corporations - has attacked all Democratic candidates except for Bloomberg, for which there has not been one major critical story.

Will Michael Bloomberg be the Democratic Party's nominee? In my opinion this is very likely. Sanders will be used to prove Bloomberg isn't "too radical" like Sanders and all the other Democratic candidates like Bloomberg claims.

(SORRY, won't let me put up a poll or I messed up). But it is somewhat a yes or no question. I say yes, unless someone else maybe gets in it.)

Bloomberg's strategy of skipping the early primaries/caucuses has been tried before and has always failed. But those who tried it before, never had his money. Bloomberg is running a ton of his ads down here in Georgia. Our primary isn't until 24 March. His political ads are the only one's I've seen. No other candidate has ran any that I know of in Georgia.

Biden has been running at 35% down here since 1 Nov, Warren has dropped from 21% down to 11% and is now in fourth place. Bloomberg over the last month with all his political ads has moved from zero to 12% and is third place. Sanders is second to Biden at 17%. Blacks make up approximately half of Democratic primary voters here, blacks are Biden's strongest supporters. I confident Biden will win Georgia regardless of all the political ads Bloomberg runs. But he could finish second. He's not that far behind Sanders.

I don't think Bloomberg will win the nomination, but who knows. It's a crap shot. If Biden maintains the black support he has at present, both here and nationally, he'll win as black make up around a third of all democratic primary voters. My two cents.

 

[slick]

I doubt it, and the reason why is both Bernie's lead in Iowa, the trend of his support there (rising vs Biden falling, or more generously, Biden being outsurged), and his young and motivated base which has a clear advantage at enduring the rigours of a caucus. Further, if you would assume that Klobuchar's supporters get onside with Biden, it would be just as reasonable to assume Warren sides with Bernie, in which case Biden still loses.

Biden would basically need to absorb both Klobuchar and Buttigieg, and that's a moonshot at best.

Bernie does well in caucus's, look back to 2016. If Biden continues to freefall Bloomberg may be Bernies strongest contender
down the road. If it becomes a contested election with no one getting 50% of the delegates by the convention they'll
try to take it away from Sanders. Super delegates arrive & Mrs. Clinton & John Kerry are counting their bullets ready
to jump if that's the scenario which comes to pass.

 

[Surrealistik]

Bernie does well in caucus's, look back to 2016. If Biden continues to freefall Bloomberg may be Bernies strongest contender
down the road. If it becomes a contested election with no one getting 50% of the delegates by the convention they'll
try to take it away from Sanders. Super delegates arrive & Mrs. Clinton & John Kerry are counting their bullets ready
to jump if that's the scenario which comes to pass.

From a discussion I had earlier, RE the possibility of brokered convention/superdelegate robbery:

[7:07 PM] Surrealistik: what would be a cool gif is Sanders as the T-1000 running down the nomination that is John Connor in the truck like a total badass with steely eyed intent, only to be stopped by the brokered convention that is Arnold
[7:07 PM] Surrealistik: the various other candidates
[7:08 PM] Surrealistik: can be pieces of trash/shopping carts he runs over
[7:08 PM] Surrealistik: Biden being that particularly large car wreck that gets flung aside
[7:08 PM] Surrealistik: Arnold's shotgun is BLOOMBERG MONEY
[7:09 PM] Surrealistik: the first gate he blasts = DNC debate rules preventing Bloomberg from being on the stage
[7:09 PM] Surrealistik: or like, Biden could be the guy in the truck that the T-1000 just casually throws out of the vehicle
[7:11 PM] Surrealistik: also the moment when John thinks he's safe until the truck crashes through the guardrail = Iowa and NH
[7:12 PM] Surrealistik: states Sanders will lose like South Carolina = damage to the truck, getting its roof clipped by the bridge, but it's not enough, he just keeps going
[7:15 PM] Surrealistik: the giant fireball at the end = democratic party in the general election

 

[The Mark]

The impeachment/trial sucked all the oxygen out of the Democratic Primary election debates and candidates campaigns, plus grounded the 3 Democratic senators still in the election - the only legitimate candidates they had. This cut a clear path for Michael Bloomberg, who claims Elizabeth Warren talking about breaking up the 2 largest monopolies on earth (Amazon and Google) makes her "too radical.' You'll never hear Bloomberg criticizing any fellow mega billionaire or mega billion dollar corporation. According to Bloomberg, the 14th richest man on earth, all the other Democrats for president are "too radical" for promising universal healthcare, free college, erasing student debts etc.

The DNC just changed their rules for the debate exclusively to get Bloomberg, a 77 year old white male New York moderate Republican, into the debates. The MSM and press - all now entirely owned by Bloomberg's fellow mega billionaires and mega billion dollar corporations - has attacked all Democratic candidates except for Bloomberg, for which there has not been one major critical story.

Will Michael Bloomberg be the Democratic Party's nominee? In my opinion this is very likely. Sanders will be used to prove Bloomberg isn't "too radical" like Sanders and all the other Democratic candidates like Bloomberg claims.

(SORRY, won't let me put up a poll or I messed up). But it is somewhat a yes or no question. I say yes, unless someone else maybe gets in it.)

POMA/educated guess, I'd say Bloomberg has about a 10% chance at best.

 

[joko104]

Bloomberg's strategy of skipping the early primaries/caucuses has been tried before and has always failed. But those who tried it before, never had his money. Bloomberg is running a ton of his ads down here in Georgia. Our primary isn't until 24 March. His political ads are the only one's I've seen. No other candidate has ran any that I know of in Georgia.

Biden has been running at 35% down here since 1 Nov, Warren has dropped from 21% down to 11% and is now in fourth place. Bloomberg over the last month with all his political ads has moved from zero to 12% and is third place. Sanders is second to Biden at 17%. Blacks make up approximately half of Democratic primary voters here, blacks are Biden's strongest supporters. I confident Biden will win Georgia regardless of all the political ads Bloomberg runs. But he could finish second. He's not that far behind Sanders.

I don't think Bloomberg will win the nomination, but who knows. It's a crap shot. If Biden maintains the black support he has at present, both here and nationally, he'll win as black make up around a third of all democratic primary voters. My two cents.

When Warren said she would break up the 2 largest monopolies in the history of earth - Amazon and Google - the billionaires and mega millionaires immediately decided she was "too radical."

The Democrats in Congress decide all US Democratic Senators are too radical, so used the impeachment trial timed exactly to silence them during the Iowa and New Hamshire primaries, so the only voice people were constantly hearing was Bloomberg, while the DNC changed the rules specifically for Bloomberg.

They want the election to come down to Bloomberg versus Sanders, with Joe Biden the Plan B. This way the Democratic Party has protected the wealthiest people and companies on earth for all the "radical" Democrats running for Congress talking about taking their money. Sanders will make Bloomberg seem "moderate."

 

[Surrealistik]

When Warren said she would break up the 2 largest monopolies in the history of earth - Amazon and Google - the billionaires and mega millionaires immediately decided she was "too radical."

The Democrats in Congress decide all US Democratic Senators are too radical, so used the impeachment trial timed exactly to silence them during the Iowa and New Hamshire primaries, so the only voice people were constantly hearing was Bloomberg, while the DNC changed the rules specifically for Bloomberg.

They want the election to come down to Bloomberg versus Sanders, with Joe Biden the Plan B. This way the Democratic Party has protected the wealthiest people and companies on earth for all the "radical" Democrats running for Congress talking about taking their money. Sanders will make Bloomberg seem "moderate."

If that's their plan, they better get a new one, as Sanders will crush Bloomberg, just as he's about to cast down Biden.

 

[joko104]

Bernie does well in caucus's, look back to 2016. If Biden continues to freefall Bloomberg may be Bernies strongest contender
down the road. If it becomes a contested election with no one getting 50% of the delegates by the convention they'll
try to take it away from Sanders. Super delegates arrive & Mrs. Clinton & John Kerry are counting their bullets ready
to jump if that's the scenario which comes to pass.

The wealthiest people and companies on earth - who literally OWN the MSM, press and Internet and totally control the Democratic Party - want the primary to come down between Bloomberg and Sanders, so Bloomberg in their nominee with Sanders used to help eliminate the others and to make Bloomberg look moderate.

The super rich billionaires and mega millionaires decided they will not tolerate their taxes being raised or their monopolies challenged. So when Elizabeth Warren - then the party favorite - said she would break up the 2 largest and wealthiest monopolies on earth, they decided they absolutely had to eliminate her, so they did so.

They decided only Biden my be acceptable - until he said he would raise taxes on those super rich to 49.7%, so all of them had to go. Only their fellow billionaire Bloomberg is acceptable. He'll never say a word against Jeff Bezos, George Soros, or the WalMart heirs at over $20 billion each.

Bloomberg promised he won't be "radical" against the super rich and offered to buy the Democratic Primary. The DNC said "sold!" as has the MSM and press.

The trial was to knock out the Democratic Senators from the first primaries and suck up all media coverage - so Bloomberg could have the only voice to the general public by spending hundreds of millions on ads.

Sanders? Biden? The are just tools of the super rich to be discarded once they have served their purpose. While the super never care with Democrats rant about the evil super rich. However, if any of them ever make and SPECIFIC proposal that would cause them to actually pay taxes? TOO RADICAL! So their media outlets they own and Democrats in Congress they control have been tasked with eliminating them.

With Bloomberg as the Democratic nominee, the richest people and corporations on earth can't lose in November.

 

[joko104]

If that's their plan, they better get a new one, as Sanders will crush Bloomberg, just as he's about to cast down Biden.

They are counting on Democrats like you.