Where is Trump's Balanced Budget?

[ttwtt78640]

Not a whole lot we can do now. We need to somehow set up legislation to mitigate the need to subsidize people. Something that recognized the damage people do to society as a whole, by having children they cannot afford to have.

That (bolded above) has nothing to do with SS/Medicare and has little to do with Medicaid. Please list the 'objectionable' social programs (based on having minor dependents) and their current annual costs - my bet is that they would total far less than the current federal deficit.

 

[Lord of Planar]

That (bolded above) has nothing to do with SS/Medicare and has little to do with Medicaid. Please list the 'objectionable' social programs (based on having minor dependents) and their current annual costs - my bet is that they would total far less than the current federal deficit.

I'm speaking of other social benefits like SNAP and TANF. SS and Medicare are here to stay, and last I knew, they still pay for themselves.

 

[ttwtt78640]

I'm speaking of other social benefits like SNAP and TANF. SS and Medicare are here to stay, and last I knew, they still pay for themselves.

SNAP and TANF are at most 2% of federal spending yet 100% of that money benefits private business.

 

[Lord of Planar]

SNAP and TANF are at most 2% of federal spending yet 100% of that money benefits private business.

Well, there are others.

Social spending is the largest mandatory spending on the books. I don't know the complete breakdown, but it is huge.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Well, there are others.

Social spending is the largest mandatory spending on the books. I don't know the complete breakdown, but it is huge.

It is essential to know what spending is to be cut in order to call for any action to do so. HAND

 

[JasperL]

I'm speaking of other social benefits like SNAP and TANF. SS and Medicare are here to stay, and last I knew, they still pay for themselves.

There are still positive balances in the 'trust funds' but SS and Medicare are both running cash flow deficits at this point. Depending on how it's calculated, SS has been running a deficit since 2010, or only began them in 2018. Similar with Medicare, which is why the 'trust fund' balances are being depleted and there is so much talk about them running out as soon as 2026. And the out year problems are all related to growing cash flow deficits in the big entitlement programs, including SS and Medicare, especially.

 

[Geoist]

Whoa their cowboy... how many of them have been lambasting trump for the deficit. When it suits their purpose.. they seem to be deficit hawks as well.

When they point out Trump’s deficit it is usually to lambast their hypocrisy. But I do agree some liberals are hypocrites on the debt/deficit.

 

[jaeger19]

Absolutely - wealthy care about Political Party. About 95% are Republicans, because they support policies of widening income gaps, which make the rich even richer.

Wow.. that's a whopper.

Wealthy care about power. They don't care about political party and they give to both sides. Whomever is most likely to win.. gets the bulk of the money. In fact.. you can watch the donations change as the polls change.. when one person seems to have an advantage.. their donations increase. Money gets you a seat at the table.. regardless of party.

Democrats also support policies that widen the income gap.

 

[jaeger19]

The economic sectors that can be easily outsourced are the sectors where we see the most stagnant wages. Call centers, manufacturing, low level IT jobs, human resources and so on. Jobs that are not easily outsourced have seen the bulk of wage growth. Example: healthcare, higher level IT jobs, financial advisers and so on. Automation and container ships have more to do with the decline of manufacturing jobs than anything else. Illegal immigration does have some impact at the bottom of the wage scale, but the biggest factor in terms of flat income growth is flat productivity growth. No one has came up with anything that significantly increases worker productivity in nearly 20 years now.

For example, in the 1990s illegal immigration was very high, yet the median household income went up every single one of the Clinton years, poverty rates went down every single one of the Clinton years (reaching some of the lowest levels on record), and there was significant wage growth at all income demographics. That is the only time that has happened in 40 years. Now, while some people would credit the Clinton Administration with that, they are not the primary reason for it, but rather it was the IT revolution of the 90s. For example, in the late 80s, had you walked into an auto parts store, the guy behind the desk would have had to look up a part in huge book and then call around warehouses to see if he could find it assuming it wasn't in the back (with each of those warehouses looking through inventory books). By the early to mid 90s, every parts chain in the country was going to digital inventories where they could find a part within a couple of keystrokes. The same is true with company financials, business services, business operations and so on. The 90s saw the biggest jump in productivity since the 60s and as a result wages grew and the economy was stronger than at any time since the 1960s (before or since the 1960s for that matter). This was all despite rampant illegal immigration in the 90s.

For us to see strong wage growth again, we are going to have to figure out a way to get strong productivity growth again.

Yeah.. I think you want to reexamine that. According to the research.. US productivity has continued to improve.. yet wages have remained stagnant.

From 1973 to 2017, net productivity rose 77.0 percent, while the hourly pay of typical workers essentially stagnated—increasing only 12.4 percent over 44 years (after adjusting for inflation). This means that although Americans are working more productively than ever, the fruits of their labors have primarily accrued to those at the top and to corporate profits, especially in recent years

https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

 

[jaeger19]

These people just don't understand the damage these illegals do to family wage jobs, then cry about minimum wage not being a family wage, because that's all they can find now.

there is some truth to that.

however.. what muddies the water is when you have trump and others screaming that the reason we need immigration change.. because "they are rapists murders and thieves.. etc".

the truth is.. Trump has no intention nor desire to actually fix immigration. If he did.. he would go after employers and stop the ability of employers to hire these illegal immigrants. Of course.. that would hurt the businesses that benefit from illegal immigration and he has no intention of doing that.

 

[jaeger19]

Universal healthcare and allowing government to negotiate drug prices is one of the biggest things you can do to reduce the budget deficit. Decreasing the cost of healthcare in this country is one of the biggest things that needs to be done. In addition, if you want to talk about real savings for businesses and allowing more hiring to take place, taking healthcare costs from businesses would be a huge boon for hiring. You are pushing down the cost of labor.
.

Yeah.. you might want to think about the economics of that. since you are stating that "taking healthcare costs from businesses would"/// I am going to assume that you are talking about taking the cost of healthcare insurance from out of the private sector and moving it to the government.

So now you want to add a whole new expense by adding millions of folks onto the government and you think that's going to "reduce the budget deficit"? Please explain that.

As far as pushing down the cost of labor.. well then.. sure if you take it off the backs of corporations and put it on the government.. it would help business... UNLESS you don't want to expand the deficit. If you reduce the deficit.. that means you are going to have to tax those businesses.. or tax the people.. for that healthcare cost. And either way.. that has some pretty dire consequences for the economy.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Yeah.. I think you want to reexamine that. According to the research.. US productivity has continued to improve.. yet wages have remained stagnant.



https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

That is an average over the last 45 years. Look at the time frames though:

Productivity growth over the last decade has been very low.

 

[jaeger19]

That is an average over the last 45 years. Look at the time frames though:

Productivity growth over the last decade has been very low.

You just showed me a graph where productivity increased in every one of those periods.. some of them 2000 to 2007 as high as right after world war two. and yet since the 1970's wages stagnant.

In fact.. except after 2007 the percentage of productivity was growing. 2007 to 2017 my have to do with factors like the recession.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

You just showed me a graph where productivity increased in every one of those periods.. some of them 2000 to 2007 as high as right after world war two. and yet since the 1970's wages stagnant.

In fact.. except after 2007 the percentage of productivity was growing. 2007 to 2017 my have to do with factors like the recession.

Wages did not stagnate in the 90s and early 2000s though. That was the only time we saw real gains and it correlates with higher productivity growth during those time periods. Its the only time in 40 years we have seen sustained real median income growth. It was also a time of very high illegal immigration.

 

[jaeger19]

Wages did not stagnate in the 90s and early 2000s though. That was the only time we saw real gains and it correlates with higher productivity growth during those time periods. Its the only time in 40 years we have seen sustained real median income growth. It was also a time of very high illegal immigration.

And yet productivity GREW in all of those periods.. not just the 1990'1 and early 2000's..and the period until 2007 just before the recession saw higher productivity growth.

Sorry.. but your graph certainly does not explain why wages have been stagnant. Not when productivity has continued to improve in EVERY time period. Productivity was not stagnant.

 

[Lord of Planar]

there is some truth to that.

however.. what muddies the water is when you have trump and others screaming that the reason we need immigration change.. because "they are rapists murders and thieves.. etc".

You have to remember that part of the job description of a politician is "professional liar." They all do it. We need to see past the BS, and still do what is right.

the truth is.. Trump has no intention nor desire to actually fix immigration. If he did.. he would go after employers and stop the ability of employers to hire these illegal immigrants. Of course.. that would hurt the businesses that benefit from illegal immigration and he has no intention of doing that.

I don't know what all that would entail, but I agree with that sentiment. The president is the executor of law. I agree he needs to focus on such enforcement. I believe we are still lacking in the laws to be effective though. Congress makes the laws and we need to start there.

He will have the same problems with trade agreements. The rich will block his moves if he really tries.

Thing is, instead of blocking his attempts for reform, we need to give him the opportunity and support to make it happen, and then criticize him if he fails. The left isn't even giving him the chance to fail.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

And yet productivity GREW in all of those periods.. not just the 1990'1 and early 2000's..and the period until 2007 just before the recession saw higher productivity growth.

Sorry.. but your graph certainly does not explain why wages have been stagnant. Not when productivity has continued to improve in EVERY time period. Productivity was not stagnant.

Wages have not been stagnant for the entirety of the last 40 years, that is the point. You had growth in median income during the mid to late 90s and again just before the financial crisis. Both during periods of strong productivity growth. Since then, productivity growth has been modest and so has median income growth. The problem is that when median income growth is modest, inflation eats into it so that real income can decline. The correlation is not perfect of course, but there is a correlation there. Where there is zero correlation is between levels of illegal immigration and median income growth. Illegal immigration was very high in both the late 80s and in the late 90s, yet median income growth was strong for those periods.

 

[jaeger19]

You have to remember that part of the job description of a politician is "professional liar." They all do it. We need to see past the BS, and still do what is right.
.

I agree.. but as I get older.. I realize that not everyone has the time or the resources to "see past the BS"... so those of us that do.. need to hold our politicians accountable for what they say. So that they have some incentive not to be outright liars.

I don't know what all that would entail, but I agree with that sentiment. The president is the executor of law. I agree he needs to focus on such enforcement. I believe we are still lacking in the laws to be effective though. Congress makes the laws and we need to start there.

Not at all.. the laws are already on the books. Employers cannot hire people without sending in the employee information. If the social security number does not work.. or appears fraudulent.. the government already has a tool to check on it. And the government can do audits of companies/industries.. and simply ask to see the paperwork they have done. the laws are already there... they are simply not being enforced. Trump could enforce them... in fact.. if he did... if he was even a 10th as focused on the employers who are hiring these people.. as he is of taking children from their parents... a mammoth dent would be put in illegal immigration. they are here to work... its a lot easier to enforce the law on those employing them.. rather than chase individiuals all around the country.

He will have the same problems with trade agreements. The rich will block his moves if he really tries.

Only because he is an absolute moron. What do you think is happened now with the trade war? Our prior markets are finding alternative products and sources to fill their demand.. and when the trade war is over.. the US will have lost marketshare. Like immigration.. Trump is doing what the ignorant like.. and not what will actually be effective.

Thing is, instead of blocking his attempts for reform

He is not reforming anything. In fact.. he is making things worse by antagonizing trading partners that we had good relations with.. and even had a trade surplus with. He is ALREADY failing when it comes to immigration and trade. Not to mention when it comes to US credibility around the world. We are a laughingstock.. and this is making our trading partners, turn to other countries.. notably china and Russia.. who don't have our best interest at heart... because the US is seen as ineffectual and moronic.

 

[jaeger19]

Wages have not been stagnant for the entirety of the last 40 years, that is the point. You had growth in median income during the mid to late 90s and again just before the financial crisis. Both during periods of strong productivity growth. Since then, productivity growth has been modest and so has median income growth. The problem is that when median income growth is modest, inflation eats into it so that real income can decline. The correlation is not perfect of course, but there is a correlation there. Where there is zero correlation is between levels of illegal immigration and median income growth. Illegal immigration was very high in both the late 80s and in the late 90s, yet median income growth was strong for those periods.

Actually for a strong positive correlation.. then when productivity increases.. which is has been.. wages should not be stagnant... and when productivity increases more.. then wages should grow even more. but that didn't happen..so really there is little correlation with productivity. In all likelihood.. there was other phenomena that caused an increase in wages.

as far as "zero correlation between levels of illegal immigration and median income growth"... so? I would not expect that to be so.. and that's because the effect on wages is cumulative. certainly you cannot deny that more people willing to work for less will decrease wage pressure.

 

[Kushinator]

For reference

 

[Media_Truth]

What we need to do is both grow the economy and spend less on social program. This is what liberal oppose and conservatives try to do. We need to get people back to work in productive jobs which will never happen with such dramatic trade deficits and illegal immigration.

Republicans have control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency. You say they want spend less on social programs. Have they done it?



Are they going to start reducing Social Security benefits from the group on the left of the above chart, after they paid into it all their lives?

 

[Lord of Planar]

Republicans have control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency. You say they want spend less on social programs. Have they done it?

View attachment 67242943

Are they going to start reducing Social Security benefits from the group on the left of the above chart, after they paid into it all their lives?

That doesn't matter. The pie changes size, and isn't static.

You are promoting hatred.

 

[Media_Truth]

That doesn't matter. The pie changes size, and isn't static.

You are promoting hatred.

Please provide your "more accurate" pie. You are promoting idiocy.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Please provide your "more accurate" pie. You are promoting idiocy.

My claim is that it's dynamic, and the angle of each slice is unimportant. I don't care about the percentages. I leave that for those who have the entitlement mentality.

 

[Kushinator]

If you liberals had given a crap about deficits and debt while Obama ran up ten trillion in debt during his term, you might have some credibility on the subject now. You didnt, so you dont.

Deficit growth during economic recovery is necessary.

Deficit growth during economic expansion is unnecessary. This is especially true given the nature of congress these past 8 years. Why hasn't a GOP controlled government been able to get the deficit under control, when that was all they talked about during the entire tenure of the Obama administration (showing their ignorance of macroeconomics)?