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Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

Its actually the standard. In fact, the certainty for most drugs, or even procedures, is wildly less certain than you seem to think.

Are you taking a statin? How much benefit will you get from that? Do you have any idea? Do you understand the range of benefit you might get, and the probabilities involved?

Yet you take it based on some guys recommendation, because he's studied this information (or, much more likely, he's following the 'scientific consensus'), and you are OK with that.
It is rather strange that you do not feel confident in the products from your own industry.
While most people do not read, all of the data that comes with medications, related to side effects, they still
attach it to the prescriptions. I wonder with the insert for AGW would say?
 
It is rather strange that you do not feel confident in the products from your own industry.
While most people do not read, all of the data that comes with medications, related to side effects, they still
attach it to the prescriptions. I wonder with the insert for AGW would say?

I feel quite confident, at least in some things - there are definitely drugs and procedures that are not that effective but used all the time.

But why would I feel confident? Because I understand the risk/benefit ratio. I understand what the likelihood of benefit is, and the potential failure of statistical analysis might be in various scenarios.

And this has taken a full lifetime of study and understanding.

Yet somehow, you, with absolutely no training or in depth knowledge of climate obtained from any source other than bloggers, internet message boards, and random journal articles (half of which I seem to have supplied to you!) know that the uncertainty of AGW is too great to trust, and that the range is certainly on the low side (because...and I'm not making this up... of one two page article written by a lead author of the IPCC), you are confident in dismissing science.
 
I feel quite confident, at least in some things - there are definitely drugs and procedures that are not that effective but used all the time.

But why would I feel confident? Because I understand the risk/benefit ratio. I understand what the likelihood of benefit is, and the potential failure of statistical analysis might be in various scenarios.

And this has taken a full lifetime of study and understanding.

Yet somehow, you, with absolutely no training or in depth knowledge of climate obtained from any source other than bloggers, internet message boards, and random journal articles (half of which I seem to have supplied to you!) know that the uncertainty of AGW is too great to trust, and that the range is certainly on the low side (because...and I'm not making this up... of one two page article written by a lead author of the IPCC), you are confident in dismissing science.
Actually my skill is in understanding data, almost any data, which is something you should know if you have confidence in your products.
the numbers in statistical analysts are not dependent on what is being analyzed.
The uncertainty in AGW for doubling the CO2 level, is stated and widely accepted as 1.5 to 4.5 C,
with a forcing input of 1.1 C.
This means the range of Hansen's "Ghost forcing" is between .4 C and 3.4 C,
which means the maximum number is 8.5 times greater than the minimum number.
This is a very high level of uncertainty, no matter which subject you are speaking of.
 
Actually my skill is in understanding data, almost any data, which is something you should know if you have confidence in your products.
the numbers in statistical analysts are not dependent on what is being analyzed.
The uncertainty in AGW for doubling the CO2 level, is stated and widely accepted as 1.5 to 4.5 C,
with a forcing input of 1.1 C.
This means the range of Hansen's "Ghost forcing" is between .4 C and 3.4 C,
which means the maximum number is 8.5 times greater than the minimum number.
This is a very high level of uncertainty, no matter which subject you are speaking of.

Right.

Yet you dismiss the high end of the uncertainty because... you read a two page paper once.

Mutiple times we've shown you the fact that almost everyone who studies this thinks the likelihood of ECS is greater than two degrees, and several studies think it may be well above this, with a general consensus that 3 is probably about the most likely number, which would lead to some very, very significant consequences.

But you ignore this, because you dont want to believe it, and dont understand that the likelihood of these things happening (akin to the likelihood of a statin preventing your potentially impending myocardial infarction) is all a risk/benefit equation, with the scales precipitously tipped toward risk.
 
Right.

Yet you dismiss the high end of the uncertainty because... you read a two page paper once.

Mutiple times we've shown you the fact that almost everyone who studies this thinks the likelihood of ECS is greater than two degrees, and several studies think it may be well above this, with a general consensus that 3 is probably about the most likely number, which would lead to some very, very significant consequences.

But you ignore this, because you dont want to believe it, and dont understand that the likelihood of these things happening (akin to the likelihood of a statin preventing your potentially impending myocardial infarction) is all a risk/benefit equation, with the scales precipitously tipped toward risk.
The studies based on the empirical data are and have been coming in low.
The majority of the studies that come in high are based on models which are themselves based on the assumptions of the modelers.
Besides the studies, the gain of the "ghost forcing" simply cannot be high enough to get an ECS of 3 C,
If it were, Humans likely would have never existed.
It goes back to basics, for the amplifier to work as stated, 3 C would require a gain of 2.72.
If the gain from amplified feedbacks were that high, then the .2 C of pre 1940 warming would already have exceeded,
the observed warming, and we also have to account for the .43 C of known CO2 forcing since 1940.
 
The studies based on the empirical data are and have been coming in low.
The majority of the studies that come in high are based on models which are themselves based on the assumptions of the modelers.
Besides the studies, the gain of the "ghost forcing" simply cannot be high enough to get an ECS of 3 C,
If it were, Humans likely would have never existed.
It goes back to basics, for the amplifier to work as stated, 3 C would require a gain of 2.72.
If the gain from amplified feedbacks were that high, then the .2 C of pre 1940 warming would already have exceeded,
the observed warming, and we also have to account for the .43 C of known CO2 forcing since 1940.

:roll:

Well then....

21c34d44bd123670cf28acea43c79d58.jpg
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty...lobal-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442


30 years of data says... the AGW scaremongers were wrong, and need to go away.

Been saying this for years, been told I was a moron, that I was just a "high school grad that read instruments" and all sorts of other insulting things by folks on this forum whose meteorological science understanding was parroting what activists told them to say.

Well, the data is in, ya'll were wrong, I was right.

Can we please move on past the "GLOBAL WARMING" Bs now?

lol...a least there is one fact in the above post. Four more accurate words have rarely been written on these pages.
 
:roll:

Well then....
Please state for the record, what you think most climate scientist agree with.
Be specific, and don't just say they agree with the IPCC, because the IPCC only has a range of ECS.
 
Of course you were right. GW is, and has always been, a Gigantic Hoax! Many jumped on that Money and Power gravy train. Al Gore has been full of beans for 30 years now. Educated people have been pulling their puds on this, for just as long. They have come up dry.
Gore and Obama have gone around the world touting this false narrative and hypocritically burning up thousands of gallons of jet fuel, in the process.

What 'money & power'; gravy train ? That makes me laugh when compared to the trillion$ in profits on oil (fossil fuels) throughout history.

Al Gore has been a target of right wing lies and denigration for more than those 30 years, so.....? It continues here.

90% of truly educated people, have come to the same conclusion as over 90% of the world's scientist, on this issue.

OMG Gore and Obama solely responsibly for Global warming. Yet another ridiculous, callous, partisan cheap shot and as usual...no basis in fact.
 
What 'money & power'; gravy train ? That makes me laugh when compared to the trillion$ in profits on oil (fossil fuels) throughout history.

Al Gore has been a target of right wing lies and denigration for more than those 30 years, so.....? It continues here.

90% of truly educated people, have come to the same conclusion as over 90% of the world's scientist, on this issue.

OMG Gore and Obama solely responsibly for Global warming. Yet another ridiculous, callous, partisan cheap shot and as usual...no basis in fact.

There is a danger when we attempt to apply political rules to science.
Science is not a consensus sport, when you say that 90% of the worlds scientist have come to some conclusion,
it then becomes necessary to define what that conclusion is.
Simply saying Human activity can warm the climate, is meaningless, unless a value is assigned to how much human activity can warm the planet.
Actually placing a value on the possible warming is when the agreement fall apart.
 
Interesting question.

How many would be required for you to think that we can know the global temperature?

Do you have a specific number?

I am not the one trying to show a global temperature.

How many thermometers are used to measure a global temperature?
 
If you actually look at the the arguments of the skeptics, you would see that they are not denying anything of a scientific nature.
What does the Science say that so many scientist agree will related to AGW?
From my perspective (nearly 4 decades in advanced R&D), the science is that CO2 is a greenhouse gas,
and the currently accepted forcing number of 3.71 Wm-2 for doubling the CO2 level is likely accurate.
While the science may be correct, that alone would not mean catastrophic changes to the climate.
You see, Catastrophic AGW is not one concept but two!
The First concept is that if we double the CO2 level, the energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere would increase
by 3.71 Wm-2, and that this would force the surface temperature to increase by about 1.1 C.
The second concept (with much greater uncertainty), is that the warming from the forcing would then be amplified
to produce somewhere between minimal and catastrophic warming, (1.5 to 4.5 C).
When scientist look at the climates response to past levels of CO2 increase, and estimate what the eventual
warming will be, based on observations, most estimates fall at 2C or below.
( This includes work don by the lead authors of the last IPCC report.)
https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/eth...documents/group/climphys/knutti/otto13nat.pdf

You used the term "false skepticism", what do you think people are skeptical of?

I can tell you I am skeptical that the amplified feedbacks have a high enough gain to reach the predicted 3C mark.
What would make me skeptical? if the amplified feedbacks exists, then they would amplify any warming, not simply CO2 warming.
This is important because the climate has warming about 4 C since the end of the last ice age, and it warmed,
.2 C between 1880 and 1940.
In climate science, it is known that there is a time lag between the input and result of a climate changing event.
This time period, has been theorized anywhere between 6.6 and 1000 years.
Recent studies, say the average time period is about 10.1 years.
The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission - IOPscience
But this means that the gain of the climate amplifier cannot be very high.
If the gain were high, and the time period were 10.1 years, we would all already be dead from the .2 C pre 1940 warming.
Consider if the final ECS were 3C? That would mean that the gain was 3/1.1=2.72.
If the gain were 2.72 and the cycle time were 10.1 years, then the .2 C pre 1940 warming,
then by 1960, we would have already seen more warming that has occurred.
Skeptical Science uses a 40 year latency, so by 1980 the .2 C would have become .54 C. which would be on track
to be 1.48 C by 2020. and these numbers do not take into account the know CO2 forcing since 1940.
The math says the gain cannot be that high, and this is supported by the lower findings from observation data.

This post is largely an argument from randU fallacy (argument by using made up numbers).

CO2 is incapable of warming the Earth at all. It is not an energy source. It is not a magick blanket. It is not a magick one way mirror.
There is no 'forcing' caused by CO2 or anything else.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth.
It is not even possible to measure the global content of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Science isn't an observation. Observations are subject to the problems of phenomenology. Science isn't a research or study. It isn't a political agency such as the IPCC or NASA. Science is just a set of falsifiable theories.

The Church of Global Warming denies science and mathematics.
 
The hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is based on the work of Svante Arrhenius, which was a jewel of 19th century physics.
That theory (not a hypothesis) was falsified by the laws of thermodynamics. Fortunately for poor misquoted Arrhenius, his other work does still survive and we use it today.
The 21st century work of Svensmark and Shaviv encompasses data, knowledge and understanding undreamed of by Arrhenius.
True.
Once upon a time the Ptolemaic planetary system was the consensus view of scientists, until Copernicus came along with new data, knowledge and understanding.
Consensus is not used in science. It wasn't Copernicus that falsified the terracentric view of the the universe. It was Galileo. Copernicus did not create the theory of the heliocentric system either. He was just effective at 'marketing' it.
Please see Thomas Kuhn, ​The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.

Please see the works of Karl Popper, a very talented philosopher that first described why science does not use consensus or supporting evidence.
 
Actually my skill is in understanding data, almost any data, which is something you should know if you have confidence in your products.
the numbers in statistical analysts are not dependent on what is being analyzed.
If you really did understand statistical math, you would understand why it's not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth.
The uncertainty in AGW for doubling the CO2 level, is stated and widely accepted as 1.5 to 4.5 C,
with a forcing input of 1.1 C.
This means the range of Hansen's "Ghost forcing" is between .4 C and 3.4 C,
which means the maximum number is 8.5 times greater than the minimum number.
This is a very high level of uncertainty, no matter which subject you are speaking of.
There is no 'forcing'. CO2 is not a force. CO2 is not a source of energy. CO2 has no capability to warm the Earth at all.
 
There is a danger when we attempt to apply political rules to science.
Science is not a consensus sport, when you say that 90% of the worlds scientist have come to some conclusion,
it then becomes necessary to define what that conclusion is.
Simply saying Human activity can warm the climate, is meaningless, unless a value is assigned to how much human activity can warm the planet.
Actually placing a value on the possible warming is when the agreement fall apart.

Here you almost have it right.

Science is a set of falsifiable theories. That's it. That's all. It does not use consensus. It does not use supporting evidence since supporting evidence proves nothing.
A theory of science remains a theory until it is destroyed by falsification. No theory of science is ever proven.
 
There is no 'forcing'. CO2 is not a force. CO2 is not a source of energy. CO2 has no capability to warm the Earth at all.

"We know CO2 absorbs and re-emits longwave radiation (Tyndall). The theory of greenhouse gases predicts that if we increase the proportion of greenhouse gases, more warming will occur (Arrhenius).

Scientists have measured the influence of CO2 on both incoming solar energy and outgoing long-wave radiation. Less longwave radiation is escaping to space at the specific wavelengths of greenhouse gases."

https://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm
 
Continuing your evasion I see. I am not the one trying to show a global temperature.

How many thermometers are used to measure a global temperature?

Not gonna answer your own simple question, huh?

Maybe because you already can tell the answer blows a whole in your whole 'thesis', if such an idiotic position can be called that.

Tell us... how would you answer your own question- framed as 'how many thermometers to we NEED to measure global temperature?
 
Not gonna answer your own simple question, huh?

Maybe because you already can tell the answer blows a whole in your whole 'thesis', if such an idiotic position can be called that.

Tell us... how would you answer your own question- framed as 'how many thermometers to we NEED to measure global temperature?

Continuing your evasion I see. I am not the one trying to show a global temperature.

How many thermometers are used to measure a global temperature?
 
If you really did understand statistical math, you would understand why it's not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth.

There is no 'forcing'. CO2 is not a force. CO2 is not a source of energy. CO2 has no capability to warm the Earth at all.

We can get a general idea of the average temperature of the earth, but the error range is likely greater that what they claim
to be measuring.

While we do not fully understand forcing, there does appear to be some energy imbalance related to human activity
over the last half century. This is not to say that everything is as advertised, there are still large gaps in our understanding.
If CO2 is the well mixed gas pro ported, then the same energy imbalance should exist almost everywhere.
But the -64 S to -90S zone has not warmed in the last 140 years.
The reason CO2 get the blame, is that there are not any other taxable suspects.
 
There is a danger when we attempt to apply political rules to science.
Science is not a consensus sport, when you say that 90% of the worlds scientist have come to some conclusion,
it then becomes necessary to define what that conclusion is.
Simply saying Human activity can warm the climate, is meaningless, unless a value is assigned to how much human activity can warm the planet.
Actually placing a value on the possible warming is when the agreement fall apart.
21aqbc.jpg


(I have the feeling I'm gonna get a lot of use out of that image in this subforum....)

• Consensus is critical to scientific endeavor
• The consensus position is that global temperatures are increasing, primarily due to human activity
• Human activity is probably responsible for 3/4 of warming in the past 60 years (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/three-quarters-of-climate/)

Denialist quibbling over the consensus is, at this point, a pathetic revanchist exercise. No wonder we see so much of it here....
 
Here you almost have it right.

Science is a set of falsifiable theories. That's it. That's all. It does not use consensus. It does not use supporting evidence since supporting evidence proves nothing.
A theory of science remains a theory until it is destroyed by falsification. No theory of science is ever proven.
Right, but under that definition AGW does not even qualify as a theory, in that no falsifiable criteria was ever described.
 
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