The US economy will grow by an extra $7 trillion over the next decade due to immigration, the CBO says

[samiam5211]

If you live in the US, your ancestors were garbage people that no one wanted.

 

[Winston]

Immigration is necessary for continued economic growth in the US.

Anyone that believes otherwise is foolish and uninformed.

It absolutely is, especially since our birth rates have fallen off a cliff.

 

[holbritter]

I'm sorry that your great great grandchildren are going to be brown.

That's a weird thing to say. I don't have to wait that long as I'm pretty sure my grandchild will be brown.

Your failure is assuming I fit in some box you have for anyone that disagrees with the current amount of immigration.

 

[samiam5211]

That's a weird thing to say. I don't have to wait that long as I'm pretty sure my grandchild will be brown.

Your failure is assuming I fit in some box you have for anyone that disagrees with the current amount of immigration.

yea, i don't respect people who are anti-immigration. I don't think they deserve to live in this country.

 

[holbritter]

Immigration is necessary for continued economic growth in the US.

Anyone that believes otherwise is foolish and uninformed.

I agree. And if anyone believes the OP article is referring to just legal immigration is foolish and uninformed as well. Especially when they refer to the 'current surge'.

 

[holbritter]

yea, i don't respect people who are anti-immigration. I don't think they deserve to live in this country.

Thanks for sharing. Good thing that doesn't apply to me and that I don't give a shit what you think.

 

[samiam5211]

Thanks for sharing. Good thing I don't give a shit what you think.

I certainly hope you don't care what I think. There isn't any reason you should.

 

[holbritter]

If you live in the US, your ancestors were garbage people that no one wanted.

Tell Native Americans that.

 

[samiam5211]

Tell Native Americans that.

I doubt their ancestors were wanted either. That is why they came here.

 

[OrphanSlug]

I am reading the actual report now, will take a bit to get through, if anyone cares to join this is what the OP article is referring to.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/59710-Outlook-2024.pdf

I am on page 64 of 102 of this report, immigrants as a term has only been used 6 times and there is no distinction between legal or illegal. But that said on page 58 under the section Labor Force as a subsection to Projections of the Labor Market there is a passive reference to "increased immigrants" suggesting looking over the southern border trends.

But no where in the document, so far, is a direct link between increased immigration and a $7 trillion bump in GDP numbers over the next decade. But there are several statements on economic velocity on the current path observed including how resilient the economy has been to increased interest rates as well as how immigration bumps have largely been absorbed into the economy one way or another.

When I finish this I'll chime back in, but so far I am not seeing this as the article suggests.

 

[multivita-man]

Legal immigration is close to impossible in this country. People all around the world have been waiting decades to legally immigrate to this country. Sneak in is our current immigration policy.

Legal immigration is necessarily lengthy, because we don't want the riffraff coming in. People who enter illegally or who overstay their visas jeopardize their chances at ever achieving legal status.

 

[multivita-man]

I am reading the actual report now, will take a bit to get through, if anyone cares to join this is what the OP article is referring to.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/59710-Outlook-2024.pdf

I am on page 64 of 102 of this report, immigrants as a term has only been used 6 times and there is no distinction between legal or illegal. But that said on page 58 under the section Labor Force as a subsection to Projections of the Labor Market there is a passive reference to "increased immigrants" suggesting looking over the southern border trends.

But no where in the document, so far, is a direct link between increased immigration and a $7 trillion bump in GDP numbers over the next decade. But there are several statements on economic velocity on the current path observed including how resilient the economy has been to increased interest rates as well as how immigration bumps have largely been absorbed into the economy one way or another.

When I finish this I'll chime back in, but so far I am not seeing this as the article suggests.

They might not say it explicitly; it may be the case that BI or analysts studying the report used some of the commentary from the paper and put it together. CBO does seem to indicate that a surge an immigration will lead to economic growth. Whether it's $7 trillion over the next decade or not, I'm not sure that was explicitly mentioned but was otherwise extrapolated from the report.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Okay, now I see why this is becoming a political argument.

Later in the document there is a section related to why projections changes and one aspect of it is net immigration (again no real qualifier on type) but it suggests a 2.7% increase in the labor force over what was projected from an earlier report. Page 68, a 2.7% increase to the labor force equates to 2.1% GDP bump assuming number trends for immigration.

Slice and dice some other numbers. Perhaps overlook a few things like fiscal budget impacts, reset of labor supply demand at various income levels, etc. Ignore various impacts to taxation and government spending (even though that is GDP math level data.) And... voilà... there is your $7 Trillion over a decade.

What should be noted is there will be an impact to GDP, obviously. It is the impact lands in several areas of the math that calculate GDP that tells us what we may experience over the next decade.

 

[Kushinator]

If I were to take that hodge podge of cherry picked references in someone's popular article as reinforcing anything at face value, I'd have to believe the CBO has turned into a disingenuous shill for wall street, you know the same targets that left of center anti globalists and occupy wall street activists bemoan as destructive to human values.

Leaving aside the whatever argument fits the moment as a ploy, MTA provides us all another lesson in media lying by omission as a virtue, rather than a vice.

That's far too many words to say nothing.

Yes, increased immigration expands the economy.
Yes, the economy will be larger in 2033/34 with immigration than without it.
Yes, it can replace many workers that will retire.
Yes, it means higher tax revenue than would be expected otherwise in 2033.

"So what?" we should ask.

The developed world faces a population problem. Immigration necessarily solves it.

You see, all the facts listed above would remain true even if the US doubled it's population by allowing another 330 million of the unskilled with low ability from every corner the backward, uneducated, Islamic, pagan worshipping, hunter gathering, tribal people in the world.

Holy ****ing xenophobia!

But here is the point: those facts do NOT mean is that the heritage population is economically better off now through 2033. And it does not even mean that the average person in 2034, regardless of their national origin, will be on average economically better off with immigration.

A slight deep dip into the cited CBO report revels the author's lie by omission, while the national economy yearly growth will improve by .2% per year with immigration, but the actual net impact of such immigration will be a reduction in PER CAPITA income of .8% per year.

Here is the carefully hidden fact that unravels the whole of the author's con job:

View attachment 67492577

In short, the added workforce will increase the size of the economy and population, but the economy will not be able to produce enough to even maintain the level of output required per capita to equal that population growth.

Again, far too many words used to say very little. Here is the entire exert:

I think this to be fairly obvious but for those who struggle to grasp this point perhaps an illustration will be of benefit.

No it will not. Your made up assertion that the country is worse off is based on fear and ignorance.

What matters if is the average growth per capita.

Why? GDP per capital is slightly greater than $80k, which ranks 7 in the world. The combined populations of Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Ireland, Singapore, and Qatar is less than 23 million... slightly larger than the population of Florida. Of course immigrants will not bring $80k in production. As you've stated, they will tend to be of a lower-skilled / lower-wage demographic. They will also be younger, increasing the share of the population lower than 55 (prime work age is 24 - 55).

How does this equate to a lower standard of living for current Americans? Answer: it does not. It certainly CANNOT mean lower standard of living for immigrants!

BUT for the author to be honest about this fact would also undo the great con of of immigration cheerleading. So that part of the CBO was left out.

Nonsense. Your argument is trash.

 

[maxparrish]

That's far too many words to say nothing.

The developed world faces a population problem. Immigration necessarily solves it.

Holy ****ing xenophobia!

Again, far too many words used to say very little. Here is the entire exert:
View attachment 67492629

No it will not. Your made up assertion that the country is worse off is based on fear and ignorance.

Why? GDP per capital is slightly greater than $80k, which ranks 7 in the world. The combined populations of Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Ireland, Singapore, and Qatar is less than 23 million... slightly larger than the population of Florida. Of course immigrants will not bring $80k in production. As you've stated, they will tend to be of a lower-skilled / lower-wage demographic. They will also be younger, increasing the share of the population lower than 55 (prime work age is 24 - 55).

How does this equate to a lower standard of living for current Americans? Answer: it does not. It certainly CANNOT mean lower standard of living for immigrants!

Nonsense. Your argument is trash.

Your ploy to evade my points by providing us immaterial and verbose hand waving isn't worthy of an extended conversation. I no longer suffer frivolous replies gladly so a few brief points before ending this dialog.

1. Some of the developed world faces in the short run a transitional demographic bulge problem, not a population problem. Current immigration, particularly of masses of low wage earners does not solve that by reducing per capita growth faster than it increases aggregate national income .

And in the long run a nation that has a shrinking total population has a shrinking consumer demand and need of added workers. All other things being equal supply meets demand. If there are fewer wage earners, then fewer consumers and fewer cars and houses needing to be built. The per capita wealth of the country remains as it was

2. Truth exists independent of what you characterize as being personally unacceptable attitude. It is irrelevant to the argument. O3. AND

3. From my link you reproduced the entire summary, the facts I acknowledged are taken from that document, as was the key fact unnoted by the article author. Since there is nothing there other that a larger confirmation of my points and math, and you cite nothing inconsistent with those facts and the math , it is clear you are sandbagging by answering with filler.

4. Calling an argument "trash" is not an argument, its the lack of having a credible counterpoint, and is duly noted as such.

Bye, bye.

 

[maxparrish]

That's far too many words to say nothing.

The developed world faces a population problem. Immigration necessarily solves it.

Holy ****ing xenophobia!

Again, far too many words used to say very little. Here is the entire exert:
View attachment 67492629

No it will not. Your made up assertion that the country is worse off is based on fear and ignorance.

Why? GDP per capital is slightly greater than $80k, which ranks 7 in the world. The combined populations of Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Ireland, Singapore, and Qatar is less than 23 million... slightly larger than the population of Florida. Of course immigrants will not bring $80k in production. As you've stated, they will tend to be of a lower-skilled / lower-wage demographic. They will also be younger, increasing the share of the population lower than 55 (prime work age is 24 - 55).

How does this equate to a lower standard of living for current Americans? Answer: it does not. It certainly CANNOT mean lower standard of living for immigrants!

Nonsense. Your argument is trash.

One other point I forgot to include...

You asked why GDP per person matters?

Well, given the explanation and math I thought it obvious. It matters because the average American does not wish to subsidize, sacrificing their future well being, for the sake of people who are foreign. What about that has eluded you?

It's written as a fact in the same CBO report that was used by the OP article touting how great immigration is for Americans, even if the average American is a loser for allowing such immigration.

As for the remainder of your comment I have no idea what "GDP per capital (capita?) is" or why it is relevant to the only variable in question - whatever GDP is per capita(?) we are addressing the GDP per capita WITH and WITHOUT immigration. The CBO states, that GDP per person, will be less in 2034 than without immigration.

Now if you can show that median income for the heritage population will be higher WITH immigration, even if on average it is vastly lower for immigrates and the preexisting underclass then you'd have a logical point.

 

[maxparrish]

If you live in the US, your ancestors were garbage people that no one wanted.

"and from the slime they made mortar". (Bible Verse)

 

[mrjurrs]

Legal immigrants or illegal immigrant? Last time I checked, illegals weren't allowed to work.

You aren't seriously making that claim are you?

"The woman in this story, who lives in the Carthage area, is one of dozens of people the Clarion Ledger interviewed since U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents raided seven poultry plants in central Mississippi, arresting 680 people in what authorities called the largest single-state immigration crackdown in a decade."

Chicken plants lured them. Feds jailed them. How Mississippi's immigration crisis unfolded

Undocumented immigrants helped build poultry into Mississippi's richest agricultural commodity.

www.usatoday.com

 

[samiam5211]

You aren't seriously making that claim are you?

"The woman in this story, who lives in the Carthage area, is one of dozens of people the Clarion Ledger interviewed since U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents raided seven poultry plants in central Mississippi, arresting 680 people in what authorities called the largest single-state immigration crackdown in a decade."

Chicken plants lured them. Feds jailed them. How Mississippi's immigration crisis unfolded

Undocumented immigrants helped build poultry into Mississippi's richest agricultural commodity.

www.usatoday.com

Hopefully the managers and owners were also held accountable.

 

[mrjurrs]

Hopefully the managers and owners were also held accountable.

I'm going to guess that they were not...

 

[maxparrish]

It absolutely is, especially since our birth rates have fallen off a cliff.

So?

 

[MTAtech]

Tell us the additional cost to the govt. (taxpayers) both federal and local, over the next decade and then we can decide.

If that's what you think, you provide the documentation.

 

[Grand Mal]

Legal immigrants or illegal immigrant? Last time I checked, illegals weren't allowed to work.

Ohfercryingoutloud.

 

[Grand Mal]

You aren't seriously making that claim are you?

"The woman in this story, who lives in the Carthage area, is one of dozens of people the Clarion Ledger interviewed since U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents raided seven poultry plants in central Mississippi, arresting 680 people in what authorities called the largest single-state immigration crackdown in a decade."

Chicken plants lured them. Feds jailed them. How Mississippi's immigration crisis unfolded

Undocumented immigrants helped build poultry into Mississippi's richest agricultural commodity.

www.usatoday.com

Illegal immigrants are being lured into the USA by stalwart conservative patriots who want to make bucks off cheap labour.
It's quicker, easier and cheaper than relocating to Mexican maquiladora zones.

 

[EdwinWillers]

No! That is what you have said, not what the article says. The article says that the economy (GDP) will grow by $7T and only that there will also be a rise in govt revenues. The two things are not the same.

Actually, my bad - this is true. I had revenues in my had and incorrectly equated them with GDP.