The myth of trump's falling support

[Vetplus40]

There's simply no excuse for the Democratic voters anymore.

We have a president that has given us a million reasons to get off our asses and vote. He spits in our face everyday, while he makes a mockery of the highest office we have. All this while the GOP rams through extremist policy that harms millions.

With numbers we have on our side demographic wise, if we lose the next election cycle, we will be out of excuses.

Trump supporters are a minority who will not increase much above where they are now. These supporters did not put Trump in the White House. The eligible voters that couldn't be bothered did. We wil have to see how a Trump presidency has affected their collective apathy. The upcoming mid-terms will be a good indicator.

 

[Middle_Ground]

Since April 2016 I told everyone that would listen Trump is going to be president. His averages have not moved since I started paying attention.
The Republicans seem to forget how they got into power it had nothing to do with policy. They got there due to the ultra right conservatives hate of Obama.
All democrats have to do is use the same playbook.
I spend a lot of time with millenials and I'll tell you I have not seen a group of young people more motivated.
Daily I get emails and texts asking "Is this true?" Something they received on one of the social media feeds.
It's been a 50/50 split so far.
I'm not a democrat but I can't feasibly support the republicans at this point. So here I am resisting and fighting for something I don't really agree with because it's the better of 2 evils.
It's crazy.
You wanna move the needle adopt a millenial, reach one teach one.
The Pennsylvania special election should be interesting.

 

[Kobie]

Quote...

" But if Democrats retake just one house of Congress, the Republican legislative agenda will come to a crashing end. And not only that, Democrats will get power of the subpoena, and at that point trump’s life will turn into complete and utter hell. You won’t get the pleasure of seeing him impeached, but watching him become subject to a brutal and ongoing public investigation with real teeth will be enormously fulfilling just the same. "
Two words...
Ain't happening.
There's a better chance Shane returning to that kid than the liberal/Demos taking the House....well unless it's 1313 Mockingbird Lane.

You do realize there are TWO chambers of Congress, one of which is not subject to gerrymandering?

 

[Kobie]

Based on what I'm hearing the Democrats are likely to pick up 184 House seats and 26 more Senate seats. Granted, I watch CNN and read DailyKos but I believe those numbers are accurate.

Americans don't like Trump. If you don't think a wave election is coming, I hope you don't bother bracing yourself.

 

[Kobie]

As usual, Cardinal, you cut through the rhetoric to critically and carefully analyze the situation.

Since about mid-May 2017, Donald's approval ratings have remained remarkably consistent in the mid to high '30s, and for likely voters it's a few ticks higher. It's been quite some time since we've seen that kind of stability of a president's ratings so early into his presidency. Clearly his supporters will accept literally anything he says or does, and most of the rest of us have already made up our minds that there is nothing redeemable about this man.

I also agree with your last paragraph. Any Democratic voter that hopes that Congress can remove Donald from power in 2019 has another thing coming. But impeachment--just the House's role--is not just about firing the president. That part alone can be used to neuter a president. If the Dems do take the House in November, that's what they should shoot for--to neuter this out-of-control president. It worked very nicely against Clinton and Jackson.

And honestly, I've never considered impeachment a likely or even desirable goal. That would just put Pence in charge.

Run this ****er out on a rail in 2020 and get someone who's not a complete piece of **** in charge to clean up the mess this guy's making.

 

[Kobie]

The numbers don't and will not exist for successful impeachment, but halting Republican legislative agendas and subjecting trump to public and brutal investigations using their power of the subpoena are fantastic goals to strive for.

You mean, basically what the GOP did to Clinton from 1994 on? I'm all for it.

 

[MovingPictures]

And with any luck, he will continue to. I don't think there's another human being on earth who could so successfully concentrate the entire Democratic base into a single, grim purpose.

That said, it will be extraordinarily important not to elect candidates with the purpose of spitting back, or trump will have changed the country for the worse, and for generations. If we elect candidates with the purpose of returning the country to a course that reflects a need for compassion and decency, then these two years will just be a bad memory.

As Dave Chapelle said, "It's still a great party, we just have a bad DJ."

While I agree that political strikeback is a terrible thing, the GOP has done more than enough to earn a Democratic congress that will put their foot down.

We need a Democratic Congress that will make clear to Trump that the same kind of abuse the GOP tolerated will not be tolerated any further, and that impeachment will be on the table if he attempts any Nixonish stunts.

I also hope the if the DNC takes the Congress they will dive into Trumps financial records, which could reveal all kinds of goodies about his scamming ass.

 

[Kobie]

Agreed. If the Dems even take the House--which is possible--they can grind Donald's agenda to a halt. That would demoralize the Republican base like nothing else and put the Democrats in excellent position for 2020, so long as the base doesn't get mired in the petty infighting that they engaged in in 2016. That in my mind will be the deciding factor in the 2020 presidential election.

I would put the Dems' chance of taking the House in 2018 at about 15 percent. Low, but possible. They'd have to win the general vote by about 10 points in order to have a chance of taking the House. That's how badly it's been gerrymandered.

The real power, as well as the Dems' best chance, is to get the Senate back, which is looking not only possible, but likely given the current track of polling. Obviously, things can change, but the groundswell of support for the Democrats (even if it's simply kneejerk reaction against the simpleton in the Oval Office) is boding well.

 

[MovingPictures]

You mean, basically what the GOP did to Clinton from 1994 on? I'm all for it.

Which could also lead to, wait for it ...

Another special counsel.

 

[Cardinal]

The notion here is one I went into in a post back in November and I think it definitely still holds true...



And as it relates to his support, and his effect on the opposition, and why it is an issue given the above:



Trump isn't really losing support from his base portion of support. The problem is, that's likely not going to help Republican's when he's not on the ballot, and it may not help him all that much. Why? Because while he's not really bleeding off his support, he isn't really unifying his in-party detractors either or exciting his in-party doubters. So his support is just maintaining; maintaining at a level that it won the presidency with narrow margins in a few pivotal states against an amazingly uninspiring and unexciting horrible candidate in a cycle where the opposition thought the likelihood of his winning was basically non-existant.

He's going to have a stronger challenger next time, and he's going to have an opposition that is unified regardless of who that challenger is because HE is going to be the unifying force. And that can spell trouble, even if he does continue to maintain his base, and only his base, of support.

In addition, Obama never made his Presidency about infuriating Republicans, whereas trump seems to make every day about tormenting the opposing party. Yes, yes, there was the "guns and bible" comment. That idiotic statement will stick to him forever. But, take that one "guns and bible" comment and multiply it by nearly every single day, and you have trump. The basic arithmetic you've outlined combined with a completely avoidable and unnecessary antagonism is resulting in a resolve that trump is not going to be able to shrug off on January of 2019.

There's a dark part of me that hopes he never resigns just so he can face an investigation headed up by a Democratic-controlled house of Congress; I know how an older brother feels when he forces his younger brother to continue playing a game of Monopoly just so he can continue reveling in the sadistic joy of collecting rent, because that's exactly how I'm going to feel if we retake Congress. It's certainly not a magnanimous sentiment, but it's one I think I share with a lot of people right now.

 

[Kobie]

Oh Jesus, I completely forgot about those ****ing people. Sanders voters who went over to trump clearly never went to Bernie's "on the issues" page. They almost certainly just assumed he was some crazy anarchist out to break the system, and if they couldn't have him then trump would do.

And, to be fair, there were a certain number of Trump voters out there who were just like the Joker in the Dark Knight -- some men just want to watch the world burn.

 

[Kobie]

Base + Independents.

I can't think of anything that Trump has done that would reduce his support in either of these demos. They know him already and they voted for him. They get Gorsuch and tax cuts. If he can get something on immigration that isn't a giveaway then he's a shoe in for 2020.

Base = no, probably not.
Independents = you're out of your goddamned mind if you think that Trump has done NOTHING to reduce his support there, especially since that's where he's losing his poll numbers from. Gorsuch was not a play to independents.

I give Trump a 20% chance of winning re-election. He is almost universally hated among anyone who is not a full-fledged Trumpanzee.

 

[Kobie]

While I agree that political strikeback is a terrible thing, the GOP has done more than enough to earn a Democratic congress that will put their foot down.

We need a Democratic Congress that will make clear to Trump that the same kind of abuse the GOP tolerated will not be tolerated any further, and that impeachment will be on the table if he attempts any Nixonish stunts.

I also hope the if the DNC takes the Congress they will dive into Trumps financial records, which could reveal all kinds of goodies about his scamming ass.

He's already trying Nixonish stunts; problem is, the shameless suck-ups running the GOP at the Congressional level have zero balls between them.

 

[Phys251]

I would put the Dems' chance of taking the House in 2018 at about 15 percent. Low, but possible. They'd have to win the general vote by about 10 points in order to have a chance of taking the House. That's how badly it's been gerrymandered.

The real power, as well as the Dems' best chance, is to get the Senate back, which is looking not only possible, but likely given the current track of polling. Obviously, things can change, but the groundswell of support for the Democrats (even if it's simply kneejerk reaction against the simpleton in the Oval Office) is boding well.

Honestly I'd flip those odds. Remember, we are defending 24 Senate seats to the Republicans' 8. It's possible but it'd be a tall order.

Whereas all 435 House seats are on the ballot. I think something like a dozen of them are in districts held by the GOP but voted for Hillary.

 

[Kobie]

Which could also lead to, wait for it ...

Another special counsel.

Honestly, there probably should be a special counsel investigating how the Trump administration has tried to kneecap Mueller at every turn. That's how corrupt this administration is. They make Obama's administration look like saints.

There is very little that will convince me that Donald Trump isn't up to his goddamned eyeballs in Russian money laundering (including mob ties), given how hard he's tried to suppress anything that even has a ghost of a chance of implicating him. Innocent men do not act how Trump has acted.

 

[Kobie]

Honestly I'd flip those odds. Remember, we are defending 24 Senate seats to the Republicans' 8. It's possible but it'd be a tall order.

Whereas all 435 House seats are on the ballot. I think something like a dozen of them are in districts held by the GOP but voted for Hillary.

I would have agreed before the Moore ballot. Flipping that Alabama seat has changed everything.

 

[Cardinal]

While I agree that political strikeback is a terrible thing, the GOP has done more than enough to earn a Democratic congress that will put their foot down.

We need a Democratic Congress that will make clear to Trump that the same kind of abuse the GOP tolerated will not be tolerated any further, and that impeachment will be on the table if he attempts any Nixonish stunts.

I also hope the if the DNC takes the Congress they will dive into Trumps financial records, which could reveal all kinds of goodies about his scamming ass.

Believe me, I'm all for applying the legal version of the dildo from Seven on him, but we all need to agree that there is nothing about 2017-2021 that should create a precedent.

That said, some things are not returning, such as the Blue Slip and the judicial filibuster.

 

[Cardinal]

Honestly, there probably should be a special counsel investigating how the Trump administration has tried to kneecap Mueller at every turn. That's how corrupt this administration is. They make Obama's administration look like saints.

There is very little that will convince me that Donald Trump isn't up to his goddamned eyeballs in Russian money laundering (including mob ties), given how hard he's tried to suppress anything that even has a ghost of a chance of implicating him. Innocent men do not act how Trump has acted.

And don't forget that if we retake Congress, there can be another investigation for emoluments violations.

 

[Cardinal]

I think you're discounting that there were a sizable portion of Sander's voters that weren't horribly political, weren't horribly ideological, but rather simply were part of the "outsider" and "shake up the system" fervor and happened to lean more left than right on a few issues in a superficial way. For THOSE kind of voters, where the message and idea and feelings/emotions surrounding their support of Sanders were far more important than the POLITICS, it actually makes plenty of sense why they would've gone over to Trump rather than Clinton. Especially when those would be the type that would also be most likely to feel "wronged" by Clinton "stealing" the nomination from him in their mind.

We sometimes lose sight of things being ingulfed in politics as much as we are that there are actual larger numbers of people involved in presidential cycle politics that don't ACTUALLY give a massive crap about the politics itself, or the ideology behind it; or where, at best, that stuff is kind of secondary.

I'm not only not discounting that, that was my point. They wanted a shake-the-system-up kind of car but didn't look under the hood to see what the engine was. In that respect, these people weren't Bernie supporters, per se, i.e. they didn't like Bernie because of his past legislative history or where he stood on policy.

 

[Kobie]

And don't forget that if we retake Congress, there can be another investigation for emoluments violations.

Which, to me, is the grand crime of the Trump administration. Mar-A-Lago and the various Trump resorts are basically certified bribery checkpoints for anyone who wants audience with the president.

If you want face time or influence with Mr. Trump, you can pay the exorbitant amount of cash to be a member or guest at these locales, 100% of which goes directly into the presidents pocket. Easy peasy. And his slurpers have absolutely zero problem with this.

Government For Sale is only an issue when it involves a Clinton and "pay to play," even when such accusations are bull****. I can't imagine living the life of a conservative these days, when everything you believe is a contradiction to everything you say.

 

[Cardinal]

Which, to me, is the grand crime of the Trump administration. Mar-A-Lago and the various Trump resorts are basically certified bribery checkpoints for anyone who wants audience with the president.

If you want face time or influence with Mr. Trump, you can pay the exorbitant amount of cash to be a member or guest at these locales, 100% of which goes directly into the presidents pocket. Easy peasy. And his slurpers have absolutely zero problem with this.

Government For Sale is only an issue when it involves a Clinton and "pay to play," even when such accusations are bull****. I can't imagine living the life of a conservative these days, when everything you believe is a contradiction to everything you say.

Agreed. While it's not for nothing that a Special Counsel was assigned to investigate Russian collusion with the Trump campaign, it's grotesque that out-in-the-open corruption was seen as undeserving of any investigation or oversight whatsoever.

 

[Kobie]

Agreed. While it's not for nothing that a Special Counsel was assigned to investigate Russian collusion with the Trump campaign, it's grotesque that out-in-the-open corruption was seen as undeserving of any investigation or oversight whatsoever.

NOBODY was going to approve a special counsel for that, even though it's happening right before our very eyes. If not for Sessions' recusal, the Russia investigation wouldn't be happening either.

As the fully detestable Cory Booker made clear, "complicity." These ****ers try and scream about how the Clintons are a "crime family," but there's only one crime family in the White House right now, and it's spelled T-R-U-M-P.

Funny thing is, my redneck uncles and aunts think it's just fine that Trump is openly profiting from the presidency and the influence it wields. We are dealing with people with absolutely sub-zero intelligence or ethics.

/cue the next "but her emails" argument

 

[TobyOne]

He's done nothing to reduce independent votes. Sure, hes an oaf and a buffoon but at the end of the day, it won't matter. His numbers have gone down because of media attacks - but ultimately that's a plus.

Moreover, if democrats run any of the the moonbats that lead their party today, they'll be screwed. Maybe another Obama will show up but they need to be a better Obama then Obama. Putting a black man in a suit will no longer work.

Base = no, probably not.
Independents = you're out of your goddamned mind if you think that Trump has done NOTHING to reduce his support there, especially since that's where he's losing his poll numbers from. Gorsuch was not a play to independents.

I give Trump a 20% chance of winning re-election. He is almost universally hated among anyone who is not a full-fledged Trumpanzee.

 

[Cardinal]

He's done nothing to reduce independent votes. Sure, hes an oaf and a buffoon but at the end of the day, it won't matter. His numbers have gone down because of media attacks - but ultimately that's a plus.

Moreover, if democrats run any of the the moonbats that lead their party today, they'll be screwed. Maybe another Obama will show up but they need to be a better Obama then Obama. Putting a black man in a suit will no longer work.

We relish these kinds of comments to keep us reminded of what needs to go this November.

 

[Kobie]

He's done nothing to reduce independent votes.

The polls disagree with you. Too bad, so sad. Keep spewing your bull**** and maybe some idiot will listen.

Oh, my bad. Polls! FAEK NOOZ! I forget, we have to keep things simple for simpletons.