The Cold Hard Math -- At Least 1 Million Americans Are Going to Die from Coronavirus This Year

[Kerry Won Ohio]

that is the cool think about opinions they really don't matter.
see you don't get to declare who has credibliy or not.

credibility is determined by facts not opinions.
YOu made claims that were 100% debunked.

that is all that we need to know.
like all conspiracy theories.

these are the ad hominems that make you lose.

Sorry, only in your Trump cultist Deep State mind were my claims debunked.

Focus your attention on getting all of the traitors out of Trump's government, Trump cultist. I heard the State Department is loaded with traitors out to get Trump. LOL.

 

[ludin]

Sorry, only in your Trump cultist Deep State mind were my claims debunked.

Focus your attention on getting all of the traitors out of Trump's government, Trump cultist. I heard the State Department is loaded with traitors out to get Trump. LOL.

no i posted the article that has nothing to do with trump or anything else.
in fact the i posted the salon article so that you couldn't make the claim that you just made.

The salon is very much a left wing media site.

sedition is a crime. I mean technically they were actively attempting to take down a duly legally elected president.

FBI's FISA Applications Have Problems, Inspector General Says : NPR

The Department of Justice's internal watchdog has found "apparent errors or inadequately supported facts" in more than two dozen FBI wiretap applications to the secretive domestic surveillance court.

Those findings come from an initial audit by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz of 29 FBI applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, also known as the FISA court.
Horowitz says the FBI could not locate that supporting documentation, known as a Woods File, in four of the 29 cases. In three of those instances, the IG says, the FBI did not know whether the files ever existed.

In every case in which the FBI could locate the Woods File, the IG found significant problems with the documentation.

"Our testing of FISA applications to the associated Woods Files identified apparent errors or inadequately supported facts in all of the 25 applications we reviewed," the inspector general says.

"At this time we have identified an average of about 20 issues per application reviewed, with a high of approximately 65 issues in one application and less than 5 issues in another application."

THis is not good coming from the nations leading law enforcement agency in fact this is down right scary.

 

[SoCal]

Why bother being conservative? The objective is to get everyone to panic so that they call for universal government control and, since Trump sucks, that government should be a world government led, preferably, by an gender ambiguous person of an unidentifiable non-white skin tone.

:thumbs:

 

[nota bene]

[N.b.: My background includes graduate work in statistics as well as using it as an integral part of my vocation.]

Extrapolated values -- predictions, if you please -- carry within them the uncertainties of the data used in their formation. This is often expressed as a set of +/- limits. If one is to use such phrases as, 'At least XXX,XXX deaths, it means that the figure is a lower limit.

At present, the figures for the COVID-19 virus contain a number of unknowns. They are at best reasonably accurate 'snap shots' of a moment in time. The two which we have access to are the number of deaths and the number of confirmed positive-tested individuals at a moment in time. The latter figure, to mention but one type of uncertainty, contains false positives.

At best, we should seek predictions which include some indication of the degree of uncertainty. Even better are those which list the major contributors to uncertainty in the raw data used for extrapolation.

Regards, and stay well.

Thank you for this explanation.

 

[Lutherf]

no i posted the article that has nothing to do with trump or anything else.
in fact the i posted the salon article so that you couldn't make the claim that you just made.

The salon is very much a left wing media site.

sedition is a crime. I mean technically they were actively attempting to take down a duly legally elected president.

FBI's FISA Applications Have Problems, Inspector General Says : NPR

The Department of Justice's internal watchdog has found "apparent errors or inadequately supported facts" in more than two dozen FBI wiretap applications to the secretive domestic surveillance court.

Those findings come from an initial audit by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz of 29 FBI applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, also known as the FISA court.
Horowitz says the FBI could not locate that supporting documentation, known as a Woods File, in four of the 29 cases. In three of those instances, the IG says, the FBI did not know whether the files ever existed.

In every case in which the FBI could locate the Woods File, the IG found significant problems with the documentation.

"Our testing of FISA applications to the associated Woods Files identified apparent errors or inadequately supported facts in all of the 25 applications we reviewed," the inspector general says.

"At this time we have identified an average of about 20 issues per application reviewed, with a high of approximately 65 issues in one application and less than 5 issues in another application."

THis is not good coming from the nations leading law enforcement agency in fact this is down right scary.

It's EXACTLY what one would expect as the federal government more and more becomes a law unto itself.

 

[ludin]

It's EXACTLY what one would expect as the federal government more and more becomes a law unto itself.

TO me this is a not a minor problem this is a huge problem.
this goes beyond not following law this goes into breaking of the US constitution and the only way for people to fix it is to prosecute those that did it.
Not that Wray has any chance of doing that.

This is what happens when government becomes not a government of the people for the people and by the people, but
it becomes a government for the government.

 

[ludin]

[N.b.: My background includes graduate work in statistics as well as using it as an integral part of my vocation.]

Extrapolated values -- predictions, if you please -- carry within them the uncertainties of the data used in their formation. This is often expressed as a set of +/- limits. If one is to use such phrases as, 'At least XXX,XXX deaths, it means that the figure is a lower limit.

At present, the figures for the COVID-19 virus contain a number of unknowns. They are at best reasonably accurate 'snap shots' of a moment in time. The two which we have access to are the number of deaths and the number of confirmed positive-tested individuals at a moment in time. The latter figure, to mention but one type of uncertainty, contains false positives.

At best, we should seek predictions which include some indication of the degree of uncertainty. Even better are those which list the major contributors to uncertainty in the raw data used for extrapolation.

Regards, and stay well.

Now this is a person that has actually taken statistics and advanced statistics.

 

[Lutherf]

TO me this is a not a minor problem this is a huge problem.
this goes beyond not following law this goes into breaking of the US constitution and the only way for people to fix it is to prosecute those that did it.
Not that Wray has any chance of doing that.

This is what happens when government becomes not a government of the people for the people and by the people, but
it becomes a government for the government.

The Constitution has, for all practical purposes, been rendered moot. Nobody is even bothering to question the authority that government at all levels has claimed for itself and, in fact, is asking that they take MORE power.

I'm not sure what the end result of all this virus stuff will be but we're fast tracking our way out of being a Constitutional Republic. Heck, Horowitz came out with his report on FISA abuse the other day and NOBODY is talking about it even though every single application he looked at was missing proper verification of "facts" presented. The public is paying ZERO attention to what's happening because the media is paying zero attention to it and everyone will be happy with whatever form of government we have as long as Trump isn't in office.

 

[maxparrish]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

My considered reaction to your claim is...bullocks, claptrap, balderdash, poppycock, nonsense, insane, and statistically ignorant bull dung.

Reality Check:





Prediction: 93K to 94K will be killed by the virus in the US...not 1,000,000

 

[Deuce]

Never mind the disturbing hyperbole we are hearing from the media, never mind the frightening predictions and projections we keep hearing, never mind the scary assessment by the Trump White House that 200,000 Americans will die of the coronavirus before all this is over, what is the bottom line?

The bottom line is 3,807 older Americans with preexisting health issues have died in the past three months within a population of 327 million.

The bottom line is, that fact is uniquely unremarkable.

During the press conference today, Dr. Deborah Birx presented a rather startling graph. It is unavailable on the internet. It showed that New York state and New Jersey, which is connected to the N.Y. city metro area, are anomalies. The rest of the states, all 48 of them, appear to have Covid-19 under control.

This link confirms that fact. United States Coronavirus: 188,280 Cases and 3,883 Deaths - Worldometer

Please go to the graph showing the states. The number of cases is secondary to the fatality rate of this virus. The common cold is, well, common. Look at the number of deaths. Again, that is a three month total, and, again, considering the fact that we are talking about the sick and the elderly, the figures are quite ordinary, perhaps even low.

Trump's medical experts finally confirmed something else I have been saying all along. The Trump White House still refuses to give us an age breakdown of the deceased, but Dr. Birx told us that, while the young do get infected, they recover. She said that the mortality rate "increases with age and preexisting medical conditions."

That is the closest the Trump White House will get to providing the age and condition of those who succumb to this new common cold virus. Why is that?

Take away New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans and the media wouldn't have much to talk about.

If you are looking at a current death toll for Covid-19 as a reference today, you are three weeks behind the curve on a virus that is growing exponentially.

The death toll literally multiplied by a hundred in three weeks.

This cannot be stressed enough: death tolls are a severely lagging indicator.

 

[ludin]

The Constitution has, for all practical purposes, been rendered moot. Nobody is even bothering to question the authority that government at all levels has claimed for itself and, in fact, is asking that they take MORE power.

I'm not sure what the end result of all this virus stuff will be but we're fast tracking our way out of being a Constitutional Republic. Heck, Horowitz came out with his report on FISA abuse the other day and NOBODY is talking about it even though every single application he looked at was missing proper verification of "facts" presented. The public is paying ZERO attention to what's happening because the media is paying zero attention to it and everyone will be happy with whatever form of government we have as long as Trump isn't in office.

I saw it only because i was looking up something else and i was like OMG seriously?
this is a huge huge story and someone has to be held accountable but your right.

there is nothing out there. The government is ignoring it the DOJ is ignoring it everyone is ignoring it.
yet it is the vital backbone to our society in keeping it free.

The people in the federal government should not be allowed to get away with these types of crimes simply because
they work for the government.

That is nothing more than I can rob the bank because i own the bank mentality.

 

[ludin]

My considered reaction to your claim is...bullocks, claptrap, balderdash, poppycock, nonsense, insane, and statistically ignorant bull dung.

Reality Check:

View attachment 67276942

View attachment 67276944

Prediction: 93K to 94K will be killed by the virus in the US...not 1,000,000

be careful he took calculus based statistics.

 

[Robertinfremont]

I saw it only because i was looking up something else and i was like OMG seriously?
this is a huge huge story and someone has to be held accountable but your right.

there is nothing out there. The government is ignoring it the DOJ is ignoring it everyone is ignoring it.
yet it is the vital backbone to our society in keeping it free.

The people in the federal government should not be allowed to get away with these types of crimes simply because
they work for the government.

That is nothing more than I can rob the bank because i own the bank mentality.

I am shocked how the news has avoided talking about the Clinton legal problems. We need to urge DOJ to stay on top of her.

 

[Robertinfremont]

---We can test thousands of times more people than we are testing.
There is a two week ASYMPTOMATIC INCUBATION period that current test guidelines are ignoring, which is dangerous.
Want this nightmare to keep going indefinitely? Keep ignoring that FACT, see where it gets you.
Asymptomatic people shed virus just as much as sick people.
You cannot argue with that fact, it's just a FACT.
We HAVE TO test thousands of times MORE people. FACT.



---Now you're just excusing the Trump administration's two month ham handed dismissal of the crisis and blaming it on homeless people. Good job!! And...extra points for acting like homelessness is only a problem in CA (or "blue states")
You can STFU with that nonsense, too.



---That's because we've been "drowning government in the bathtub" ever since you folks started your little Ayn Rand circle jerk.



---We were a lot more LIKE South Korea before we allowed cons to dismantle and decapitate agency funding that kept us better prepared.
And I will ignore your fake Fox News "blame it on Obama" debunked CT nonsense, so don't even try.



---Awwww...:violin
Yeah, sometimes drastic situations require drastic measures. We SHOULD be taking draconian steps, unless of course you want this crap to keep going for another three months, another year, another two years.
You probably don't even believe it's real anyway, with your flu nonsense. Flu doesn't put hundreds of thousands of people on ventilators, so throwing out flu fatality numbers is pointless.



Do me a favor, before you start your ugly cry, blaming everyone else for Trump's ineptitude...DON'T.
It isn't working.
I pray for the day I finally see the National Guard setting up a testing center in the HS parking lot across the street from where we live.

Why is it the only government favored by Democrats is when the corrupt Government is run by them?

 

[Deuce]

I am shocked how the news has avoided talking about the Clinton legal problems. We need to urge DOJ to stay on top of her.

Global pandemic, and these guys want to make sure enough attention is being paid to a retired politician.

 

[Deuce]

Why is it the only government favored by Democrats is when the corrupt Government is run by them?

Why do Republicans think it's never ok to criticize the government when it's run by Republicans?

 

[Robertinfremont]

Why do Republicans think it's never ok to criticize the government when it's run by Republicans?

Criticize the Feds then and lay off of Trump.

Act like there are hundreds of thousands of federal workers all worried about Coronavirus 19.

 

[Deuce]

Criticize the Feds then and lay off of Trump.

Act like there are hundreds of thousands of federal workers all worried about Coronavirus 19.

Criticizing the president is my right and duty as an American. Don't like it? Move to North Korea. No virus problem there!

 

[Robertinfremont]

Global pandemic, and these guys want to make sure enough attention is being paid to a retired politician.

She retired from her crimes but does that mean all is forgiven?

 

[Robertinfremont]

Criticizing the president is my right and duty as an American. Don't like it? Move to North Korea. No virus problem there!

I shall then keep hounding Democrats over their thousands of failures.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

be careful he took calculus based statistics.

I learned my calculus based statistics from the Deep State. And we took a dump on a picture of Trump each night during my class. 2/3 of the class were members of the State Department.

And we all chanted "death to America" during every class as well! We are a cult, just like your Trump cult.

 

[maxparrish]

I learned my calculus based statistics from the Deep State. And we took a dump on a picture of Trump each night during my class. 2/3 of the class were members of the State Department.

And we all chanted "death to America" during every class as well! We are a cult, just like your Trump cult.

Problem is, you're not joking.

 

[Sandy Shanks]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

During the press conference today, Dr. Deborah Birx presented a rather startling graph. It is unavailable on the internet. It showed that New York state and New Jersey, which is connected to the N.Y. city metro area, are anomalies. The rest of the states, all 48 of them, appear to have Covid-19 under control.

This link confirms that fact. United States Coronavirus: 187,347 Cases and 3,860 Deaths - Worldometer

Please go to the graph showing the states. The number of cases is secondary to the fatality rate of this virus. The common cold is, well, common. Look at the number of deaths. Again, that is a three month total, and, again, considering the fact that we are talking about the sick and the elderly, the figures are quite ordinary, perhaps even low.

FoX News briefly showed the graph on "Bill Hemmer Reports" today. Hemmer spent about ten seconds telling us that 48 states have Covid-19 under control while New York and New Jersey are an aberration. Then he resumed doing what all the networks and the Trump White House are doing, trying to scare the pants off of all Americans. He reported that the Dow fell another 1,000 points today. Is anyone surprised?

He did not mentioned Dr. Birx's assessment that is the sick and elderly that are dying. He went back to the horror stories coming out of New York, New Orleans, and Detroit while ignoring the rest of the country. He stressed the growing number of cases, but never mentioned the death rate in 95% of country.

Hemmer is only doing what the other networks and the Trump White House are doing.

The graph shows the real story. Brix presented the same data, but with each of the 50 states. The intent was to show how New York and New Jersey stand out. The graph can be seen here.https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-that-may-have-saved-millions-american-lives/

Scroll down to the graph entitled "Cumulative Data per 100,000: All States." The graph shows that 48 states after three months appear to have Covid-19 under control.

This link also shows most of the country has this virus under control. United States Coronavirus: 214,836 Cases and 5,099 Deaths - Worldometer

Go to the graph showing the number of deaths. Eliminating the N.Y. metro area (N.Y. & N.J.), New Orleans (La), and Detroit (Mi), and it shows the normal death rate for the common cold among the elderly with underlying conditions. For example, California, the largest state in population, has 207 deaths in three months. The death toll in the graph is a cumulative figure over a period of three months.

Yesterday, Dr. Birx also told us that, while the young do get infected, they recover. She said that the mortality rate "increases with age and preexisting medical conditions."

That is why, when the media tries to scare us with increasing cases of the coronavirus, that figure is unimportant. The important factor is the death rate, the true measure of the lethality of a virus. Millions catch the common cold every winter.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

FoX News briefly showed the graph on "Bill Hemmer Reports" today. Hemmer spent about ten seconds telling us that 48 states have Covid-19 under control while New York and New Jersey are an aberration. Then he resumed doing what all the networks and the Trump White House are doing, trying to scare the pants off of all Americans. He reported that the Dow fell another 1,000 points today. Is anyone surprised?

He did not mentioned Dr. Birx's assessment that is the sick and elderly that are dying. He went back to the horror stories coming out of New York, New Orleans, and Detroit while ignoring the rest of the country. He stressed the growing number of cases, but never mentioned the death rate in 95% of country.

Hemmer is only doing what the other networks and the Trump White House are doing.

The graph shows the real story. Brix presented the same data, but with each of the 50 states. The intent was to show how New York and New Jersey stand out. The graph can be seen here.https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-that-may-have-saved-millions-american-lives/

Scroll down to the graph entitled "Cumulative Data per 100,000: All States." The graph shows that 48 states after three months appear to have Covid-19 under control.

This link also shows most of the country has this virus under control. United States Coronavirus: 214,836 Cases and 5,099 Deaths - Worldometer

Go to the graph showing the number of deaths. Eliminating the N.Y. metro area (N.Y. & N.J.), New Orleans (La), and Detroit (Mi), and it shows the normal death rate for the common cold among the elderly with underlying conditions. For example, California, the largest state in population, has 207 deaths in three months. The death toll in the graph is a cumulative figure over a period of three months.

Yesterday, Dr. Birx also told us that, while the young do get infected, they recover. She said that the mortality rate "increases with age and preexisting medical conditions."

That is why, when the media tries to scare us with increasing cases of the coronavirus, that figure is unimportant. The important factor is the death rate, the true measure of the lethality of a virus. Millions catch the common cold every winter.

You're too focused on the current death total. Let's see if you're singing the same tune a month from now, when the death total is 50,000 or more.

The Army Corps of Engineers are turning sports arenas and other buildings into hospitals, because existing hospitals have exceeded capacity. Look at some of the apocalyptic footage in NYC. Doctors are enforcing do-not-resuscitate orders due to too many sick people and not enough medical staff. This ain't the common flu.

 

[Slavister]

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

I think if you account for all the no-symptoms or mild-symptoms cases AND if you account for the lag between cases and deaths, death rate might be less than 1%. Recent study suggests 0.66%. As I mentioned in recent thread, I think that means we had 300,000-500,000 infections in the US 2-8 weeks ago when we had less than 4k cases.

If number of reported cases is still about 100x less than true number of cases, we might be on the order of 10-20 million cases today. With 0.66%-1% rate, that means 66k-200k deaths from today's cases. This matches closely Fauci projections but they talk about this sort of range for TOTAL number of deaths. I am talking based on very very rough estimate of true number of current infections.

I think the hope is that last few weeks the spread has stopped a lot due to partial shutdowns... In other words, I think the hope is that the 100x factor between confirmed cases vs true infections has shrunk a lot over the past month. Hopefully we have much less than 10-20 million cases at this point.

Recent news did say that Spain and Italy estimate to have 10%-15% of population having been infected at this point.