The Cold Hard Math -- At Least 1 Million Americans Are Going to Die from Coronavirus This Year

[ludin]

Simply not true. I've read RFK Jr.'s Rolling Stone article more than once. It's an excellent article, you obviously haven't read it. The first page of the article is about exit polls. The rest of the article is about how Ken Blackwell stole the election in Ohio for Trump.

No it is a bull**** article full of wrong assumptions and using data in the wrong way as the article i posts debunks argument for argument. Also much of Kennedy's arguments are based on your own source of Mr. Freeman who was also just debunked.
but your denial fallacies are just that denial fallacies.

The stuff that you posted is nothing but opinions. There is not a shred of evidence that exit polling is inaccurate in anything you posted. Absolutely none. All you did was post a bunch of opinions by professional pollsters, trying to save face. They were too cowardly to speak up after the election and state the truth -- that Ohio was stolen from Kerry. If you read interviews with Mitofsky, he will admit that he has no evidence that the exit polls in the 2004 election were flawed.

Actually there is and in fact the evidence came from not only a Democratic polster but also the organization that the UN uses to conduct their Polls.

"Nonsense," says Mark Blumenthal, the professional Democratic pollster who runs Mystery Pollster, the poll-scrutinizing blog that has comprehensively covered the exit poll story since Election Day. Anyone who says that exit polls are the most reliable kind of survey "only demonstrates that the person making that statement knows very little about how surveys are done," Blumenthal says.
He is an expert in this field. he knows what he is talking about he is not stating an opinion.

he ACE Project, a group that advises democracies on how to conduct elections that is spearheaded by, among other groups, the United Nations, says this of exit polling:
"Their reliability can be questionable. One might think that there is no reason why voters in stable democracies should conceal or lie about how they have voted, especially because nobody is under any obligation to answer in an exit poll. But in practice they often do. The majority of exit polls carried out in European countries over the past years have been failures."

this proves your entire argument that they are accurate as completely wrong.

However, as RFK Jr. points out in the Rolling Stone article (which you have not read), there was plenty of evidence of cheating in Ohio in 2004. For example, a Democrat female lesbian judge running statewide in Ohio, who supported gay marriage, somehow got more votes statewide than Kerry during the 2004 election. That is simply impossible. A lower ticket candidate from the same party NEVER outperforms a Presidential candidate. It does not happen. That is a dead giveaway that thousands of votes were taken from Kerry.

This was addressed in the article as well if you would have actually read the article but you didn't.
Lindeman points out that the numbers work out this way for a very specific reason -- ballots in Ohio don't list party affiliations for Supreme Court races. Kennedy finds it unlikely that someone in a rural Ohio county would have cast a ballot both for Bush and for a liberal justice like Connally. But if you consider that those voters might never have heard of Connally and had no idea she was a Democrat, there's no surprise why they might have chosen her. Therefore, Kennedy's assertion that 162,000 Kerry votes were switched to Bush falls apart.

For all your complaining of not reading you sure don't read a damn thing do you?

In addition, Dr. Freeman's book about the 2004 election exit polls has been peer reviewed. Nobody has found any fault with it. The statistical odds that Bush legitimately won Ohio are literally a million to one. The original exit polls stated that Kerry won 54% - 45% in Ohio. No one has been able to refute that. That is NOT within the margin of error, as you foolishly stated. This is one reason all the major networks stated on election night at 8 pm EST that Kerry was going to win based on the exit polls, including your precious Fox News.

Peer reviewed by who? also if you would have read the article which you didn't
it shows that many of his theories have been proven incorrect so whoever peer reviewed it didn't do a very good job.

Everyone in the exit poll debate agrees that there was a systematic cause for the errors in the poll. Freeman, Kennedy, et al., claim that the systematic cause was fraud, while Mitofsky and many in the polling community claim the cause was a problem with the poll. So Freeman's argument that it would take preposterous odds to produce a random sampling error is a straw-man assertion.

 

[ludin]

---We can test thousands of times more people than we are testing.
There is a two week ASYMPTOMATIC INCUBATION period that current test guidelines are ignoring, which is dangerous.
Want this nightmare to keep going indefinitely? Keep ignoring that FACT, see where it gets you.
Asymptomatic people shed virus just as much as sick people.
You cannot argue with that fact, it's just a FACT.
We HAVE TO test thousands of times MORE people. FACT.

What you want and what reality says are 2 different things. facts do not care about your feelings.
There is no way to test all 330 million people in the US this is a fact.

going out into the middle of no where in Montana is not going to be very effective.
The best way is to test people where all the hotpots are and quarrentine them.
Yet you people bitch and complain about it. SO there you have it.

---Now you're just excusing the Trump administration's two month ham handed dismissal of the crisis and blaming it on homeless people. Good job!! And...extra points for acting like homelessness is only a problem in CA (or "blue states")
You can STFU with that nonsense, too.

I am not excusing anything I am posting facts which we all know leftist hate.
you once again do not have the ability to logically think or make a reasoned argument which is why you fail.
YOu say test everyone. yet you show no way to do this. I showed you that it is not possible to test everyone because
our population density is quite scattered.

---That's because we've been "drowning government in the bathtub" ever since you folks started your little Ayn Rand circle jerk.

Irrelevant, but typical when you don't have an argument.

---We were a lot more LIKE South Korea before we allowed cons to dismantle and decapitate agency funding that kept us better prepared.
And I will ignore your fake Fox News "blame it on Obama" debunked CT nonsense, so don't even try.

This was proven false. why do you keep lying? i thought you leftist hated lies?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/
you know actual facts from actual people that were there.

US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found | Fox News
again actual facts compared to your screaming at clouds.

---Awwww...:violin
Yeah, sometimes drastic situations require drastic measures. We SHOULD be taking draconian steps, unless of course you want this crap to keep going for another three months, another year, another two years.
You probably don't even believe it's real anyway, with your flu nonsense. Flu doesn't put hundreds of thousands of people on ventilators, so throwing out flu fatality numbers is pointless.

Yet you people were complaining up a storm and bitching left and right when trump issued travel restrictions to and from China and europe.
sorry you don't get your cake and eat it as well.

Do me a favor, before you start your ugly cry, blaming everyone else for Trump's ineptitude...DON'T.
It isn't working.
I pray for the day I finally see the National Guard setting up a testing center in the HS parking lot across the street from where we live.

The US military already has medical ships in NY and in CA i am sure others will be sent to where they can.
All of your outrage is being handled and taken care of as quickly as possible.
you can continue yelling at clouds because that is all you have.

 

[ludin]

I already know, polling is trying to predict human behavior and we all know that's near impossible with even 90% accuracy.

Yeah he is dismissed at this point. his entire argument has been dismantled from top to bottom.
i will simply just keep re-posting the same article that shows how badly he was wrong.

he can't accept facts like all leftist go figure.

 

[Torus34]

[N.b.: My background includes graduate work in statistics as well as using it as an integral part of my vocation.]

Extrapolated values -- predictions, if you please -- carry within them the uncertainties of the data used in their formation. This is often expressed as a set of +/- limits. If one is to use such phrases as, 'At least XXX,XXX deaths, it means that the figure is a lower limit.

At present, the figures for the COVID-19 virus contain a number of unknowns. They are at best reasonably accurate 'snap shots' of a moment in time. The two which we have access to are the number of deaths and the number of confirmed positive-tested individuals at a moment in time. The latter figure, to mention but one type of uncertainty, contains false positives.

At best, we should seek predictions which include some indication of the degree of uncertainty. Even better are those which list the major contributors to uncertainty in the raw data used for extrapolation.

Regards, and stay well.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

It appears what you do know is wrong so...

Exit polls or telephone polls, people still lie to pollsters and the only data to truly gauge their accuracy is the election results. Whether you think an election is rigged or not is irrelevant, you have provided no evidence it was other than polling data which has been shown over and over to be flawed, so catch 22 it is, then.

You know very little on this subject, obviously. Lying on exit polls is exceedingly rare. Any exit poll expert will tell you that. Regardless, this is one reason why a small margin of error is included in exit polls. The margin of errors for exit polls is much smaller than it is for telephone polls.

 

[OpportunityCost]

You know very little on this subject, obviously. Lying on exit polls is exceedingly rare. Any exit poll expert will tell you that. Regardless, this is one reason why a small margin of error is included in exit polls. The margin of errors for exit polls is much smaller than it is for telephone polls.

Here is someone that knows a lot about polling:

Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

No it is a bull**** article full of wrong assumptions and using data in the wrong way as the article i posts debunks argument for argument. Also much of Kennedy's arguments are based on your own source of Mr. Freeman who was also just debunked.
but your denial fallacies are just that denial fallacies.

You're wrong on so many fronts that I don't know where to begin. First of all, RFK Jr. refuted all of the claims in this Salon article that you think so highly of. He wrote a response to the writer, Farhad Manjoo, refuting each one of his points. It's probably still on the Internet out there somewhere if you look for it.

This quote is a prime example of why Manjoo can't be taken seriously:

But the fact that the county once had an unbiased distribution of voting machines would seem to clear them of the kind of deliberate vote-rigging that Kennedy sees. You can call them incompetent for not responding to new registration in the county. But can you really call them election thieves?

The answer to this dummy's question is YES, Ken Blackwell and the Repug election officials running Ohio purposely removed voting machines in Democratic districts, in order to create long lines of voters and to suppress the vote. The fact that Manjoo can't understand this shows what a naïve, wishy-washy weak Democrat that he is. This has been a Repug dirty tactic for 20 years now, because Repugs know they have to cheat in order to win elections. Because they certainly can't win elections based on their fascist, bull**** ideas.

And, regardless, very little of this has anything to do with Dr. Freeman's book about the 2004 election.

Actually there is and in fact the evidence came from not only a Democratic polster but also the organization that the UN uses to conduct their Polls.

I already explained to you that Mitofsky and Blumenthal have provided zero evidence that the exit polls in 2004 were wrong. Dr. Freeman discusses this in his book. Mitofsky has a far-fetched theory that Bush voters were more reluctant to participate in exit polls. Total nonsense that he has never been able to prove. In fact, the opposite true -- a single, poor Democratic mother has to get home to the kids. In other words, poor Democrats have less time to participate in exit polls than the typical Republican voter. Again, Mitofsky and Blumenthal can't prove that the exit polls were unreliable and they have no backbone. If they did have backbones, they would have raised a red flag.

And as I already stated, Kerry won Ohio way outside the margin of error: 54% - 45%. The 51% - 48% nonsense that Blumenthal and Mitofsky talk about were the "corrected" exit polls, not the original exit polls. The original exit polls that Dr. Freeman talks about in his book show a 54% - 45% victory for Kerry. This is what all of the major networks used in their initial exit polls reporting. Again, Blumenthal and Mitofsky are trying to save face.

Therefore, you haven't even come close to refuting Dr. Freeman, especially when you are too lazy to even read his book. A book that was peer-reviewed by other academic statisticians and was determined to contain no significant errors, by the way.

This was addressed in the article as well if you would have actually read the article but you didn't.
Lindeman points out that the numbers work out this way for a very specific reason -- ballots in Ohio don't list party affiliations for Supreme Court races. Kennedy finds it unlikely that someone in a rural Ohio county would have cast a ballot both for Bush and for a liberal justice like Connally. But if you consider that those voters might never have heard of Connally and had no idea she was a Democrat, there's no surprise why they might have chosen her. Therefore, Kennedy's assertion that 162,000 Kerry votes were switched to Bush falls apart.

I have read this Salon article before. And I've already explained to you how RFK Jr. has already refuted all of Manjoo's points.

And since you are critiquing RFK Jr's Rolling Stone article, which is not even related to Dr. Freeman's book -- a book that you have not even read by the way -- a hypocritical Repug like you simply has zero room to talk about me "not reading" something. How shameless, but I'm used to this from a know-it-all Trump cultist such as you.

Peer reviewed by who?

Peer-reviewed by academic scholars, as I already told you. Academic scholars who know more than Mitofsky and Blumenthal.

And, NO, not everyone in the exit poll debate agrees that there were errors with the exit polls. Dr. Freeman certainly doesn't. And Mitofsky and Blumenthal are being dishonest when they state that the exit polls showed a 51% - 48% victory for Kerry. Again, the original exit polls showed a 54% - 45% victory for Kerry. That is way outside the margin of error.

 

[Sandy Shanks]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

Never mind the disturbing hyperbole we are hearing from the media, never mind the frightening predictions and projections we keep hearing, never mind the scary assessment by the Trump White House that 200,000 Americans will die of the coronavirus before all this is over, what is the bottom line?

The bottom line is 3,807 older Americans with preexisting health issues have died in the past three months within a population of 327 million.

The bottom line is, that fact is uniquely unremarkable.

During the press conference today, Dr. Deborah Birx presented a rather startling graph. It is unavailable on the internet. It showed that New York state and New Jersey, which is connected to the N.Y. city metro area, are anomalies. The rest of the states, all 48 of them, appear to have Covid-19 under control.

This link confirms that fact. United States Coronavirus: 188,280 Cases and 3,883 Deaths - Worldometer

Please go to the graph showing the states. The number of cases is secondary to the fatality rate of this virus. The common cold is, well, common. Look at the number of deaths. Again, that is a three month total, and, again, considering the fact that we are talking about the sick and the elderly, the figures are quite ordinary, perhaps even low.

Trump's medical experts finally confirmed something else I have been saying all along. The Trump White House still refuses to give us an age breakdown of the deceased, but Dr. Birx told us that, while the young do get infected, they recover. She said that the mortality rate "increases with age and preexisting medical conditions."

That is the closest the Trump White House will get to providing the age and condition of those who succumb to this new common cold virus. Why is that?

Take away New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans and the media wouldn't have much to talk about.

 

[ludin]

You're wrong on so many fronts that I don't know where to begin. First of all, RFK Jr. refuted all of the claims in this Salon article that you think so highly of. He wrote a response to the writer, Farhad Manjoo, refuting each one of his points. It's probably still on the Internet out there somewhere if you look for it.

This quote is a prime example of why Manjoo can't be taken seriously:


The answer to this dummy's question is YES, Ken Blackwell and the Repug election officials running Ohio purposely removed voting machines in Democratic districts, in order to create long lines of voters and to suppress the vote. The fact that Manjoo can't understand this shows what a naïve, wishy-washy weak Democrat that he is. This has been a Repug dirty tactic for 20 years now, because Repugs know they have to cheat in order to win elections. Because they certainly can't win elections based on their fascist, bull**** ideas.

And, regardless, very little of this has anything to do with Dr. Freeman's book about the 2004 election.


I already explained to you that Mitofsky and Blumenthal have provided zero evidence that the exit polls in 2004 were wrong. Dr. Freeman discusses this in his book. Mitofsky has a far-fetched theory that Bush voters were more reluctant to participate in exit polls. Total nonsense that he has never been able to prove. In fact, the opposite true -- a single, poor Democratic mother has to get home to the kids. In other words, poor Democrats have less time to participate in exit polls than the typical Republican voter. Again, Mitofsky and Blumenthal can't prove that the exit polls were unreliable and they have no backbone. If they did have backbones, they would have raised a red flag.

And as I already stated, Kerry won Ohio way outside the margin of error: 54% - 45%. The 51% - 48% nonsense that Blumenthal and Mitofsky talk about were the "corrected" exit polls, not the original exit polls. The original exit polls that Dr. Freeman talks about in his book show a 54% - 45% victory for Kerry. This is what all of the major networks used in their initial exit polls reporting. Again, Blumenthal and Mitofsky are trying to save face.

Therefore, you haven't even come close to refuting Dr. Freeman, especially when you are too lazy to even read his book. A book that was peer-reviewed by other academic statisticians and was determined to contain no significant errors, by the way.



I have read this Salon article before. And I've already explained to you how RFK Jr. has already refuted all of Manjoo's points.

And since you are critiquing RFK Jr's Rolling Stone article, which is not even related to Dr. Freeman's book -- a book that you have not even read by the way -- a hypocritical Repug like you simply has zero room to talk about me "not reading" something. How shameless, but I'm used to this from a know-it-all Trump cultist such as you.




Peer-reviewed by academic scholars, as I already told you. Academic scholars who know more than Mitofsky and Blumenthal.

And, NO, not everyone in the exit poll debate agrees that there were errors with the exit polls. Dr. Freeman certainly doesn't. And Mitofsky and Blumenthal are being dishonest when they state that the exit polls showed a 51% - 48% victory for Kerry. Again, the original exit polls showed a 54% - 45% victory for Kerry. That is way outside the margin of error.

Being peer reviewed by people that agree with you is not a peer review. Peer review is an independent examination of what you wrote. what you describe is nothing more than a huge circular logic fallacy.
nothing you have written disputes the facts. YOu lose. YOur conspiracy theories are just that conspiracy theories.

kennedy doesn't debunk anything. he simply pushes the conspiracy harder by leaving out facts that doesn't suit his opinion and misquoting people.

Freeman is another conspiracy theoriest just like kennedy.

He ignores the facts that the polls indeed were wrong there was sample bias, there was a whole slew of other red flags going on with those exit polls
WHICH IS why NO ONE uses them and instead we COUNT VOTES.

We have 2 expert organizations that say that exit polls are not accurate. in fact 1 of them helps the UN with them and has said everywhere they are
used has been a failure.

YOu can't accept facts like most leftist but we do have a pretty good conspiracy theory forum here that you can peddle your garbage in.
no one else here will believe it.

 

[ludin]

Here is someone that knows a lot about polling:

Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls | FiveThirtyEight

ol his people know more than them and so does he.
lmao.

there is no more point in wasting anymore time on this guy. conspiracy theorist can't handle facts which is why they ignore them.

 

[Moonglow]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

We are born into world with no guarantees of living.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Being peer reviewed by people that agree with you is not a peer review. Peer review is an independent examination of what you wrote. what you describe is nothing more than a huge circular logic fallacy.
nothing you have written disputes the facts. YOu lose. YOur conspiracy theories are just that conspiracy theories.

kennedy doesn't debunk anything. he simply pushes the conspiracy harder by leaving out facts that doesn't suit his opinion and misquoting people.

Freeman is another conspiracy theoriest just like kennedy.

He ignores the facts that the polls indeed were wrong there was sample bias, there was a whole slew of other red flags going on with those exit polls
WHICH IS why NO ONE uses them and instead we COUNT VOTES.

We have 2 expert organizations that say that exit polls are not accurate. in fact 1 of them helps the UN with them and has said everywhere they are
used has been a failure.

YOu can't accept facts like most leftist but we do have a pretty good conspiracy theory forum here that you can peddle your garbage in.
no one else here will believe it.

Just because you say it's a conspiracy theory doesn't make it so. The bottom line is that Dr. Freeman knows a lot more about this than you do. Just like those 500 legal scholars know more than a know-it-all Trump cultist like you.

And Dr. Freeman's analysis of the 2004 exit polls is much more comprehensive and honest than Blumenthal or Mitofsky. As I stated previously, the original exit polls showed Kerry winning Ohio 54% - 45%, which is way outside the margin of error. It was NOT 51% - 48% in favor of Kerry, as Blumenthal and Mitofsky dishonestly claimed. They are using their nonsensical "corrected" exit polls because they were too cowardly to speak up and cry foul after the election.

Dr. Freeman's book was peer-reviewed by other academics and no flaws in his research and analysis methodology were discovered. Your Repug spinning to the contrary is simply irrelevant.

 

[ludin]

Just because you say it's a conspiracy theory doesn't make it so. The bottom line is that Dr. Freeman knows a lot more about this than you do. Just like those 500 legal scholars know more than a know-it-all Trump cultist like you.

And Dr. Freeman's analysis of the 2004 exit polls is much more comprehensive and honest than Blumenthal or Mitofsky. As I stated previously, the original exit polls showed Kerry winning Ohio 54% - 45%, which is way outside the margin of error. It was NOT 51% - 48% in favor of Kerry, as Blumenthal and Mitofsky dishonestly claimed. They are using their nonsensical "corrected" exit polls because they were too cowardly to speak up and cry foul after the election.

Dr. Freeman's book was peer-reviewed by other academics and no flaws in his research and analysis methodology were discovered. Your Repug spinning to the contrary is simply irrelevant.

It is a conspiracy theory because it was proven to be a conspiracy theory. The facts tell a completely different story than what both freeman and kennedy are saying.
but you don't care about facts which is why you are a conspiracy theorist.

500 butt hurt leftist legal scholars opinion are inconsequential to what the law actually says. they can have their opinion but that doesn't determine what facts are.
the law determines what the facts are. finding 500 other butt hurt leftist that agree with you is called a circular logic fallacy.

Actually now it wasn't. The exit polls were WRONG as mitofsky pointed out. There was bad data collected from the people they were polling.
They were the ones that did the polls. they were not dishonest.

Again being peer reviewed by people that agree with you is not a peer review.
yes your conspiracy theories are irrelevant.

 

[marke]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

If so many people have the virus already and within 20 days 2% of those will be dead then why are we trying to trash our economy to keep that from happening?

 

[OpportunityCost]

Just because you say it's a conspiracy theory doesn't make it so. The bottom line is that Dr. Freeman knows a lot more about this than you do. Just like those 500 legal scholars know more than a know-it-all Trump cultist like you.

And Dr. Freeman's analysis of the 2004 exit polls is much more comprehensive and honest than Blumenthal or Mitofsky. As I stated previously, the original exit polls showed Kerry winning Ohio 54% - 45%, which is way outside the margin of error. It was NOT 51% - 48% in favor of Kerry, as Blumenthal and Mitofsky dishonestly claimed. They are using their nonsensical "corrected" exit polls because they were too cowardly to speak up and cry foul after the election.

Dr. Freeman's book was peer-reviewed by other academics and no flaws in his research and analysis methodology were discovered. Your Repug spinning to the contrary is simply irrelevant.

You think its Republican spin? Raw Story is pretty far from Republican.

The Raw Story | Early exit polls predict Kerry will be victor

And the final 6 p.m. exits: OH 51 49

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Never mind the disturbing hyperbole we are hearing from the media, never mind the frightening predictions and projections we keep hearing, never mind the scary assessment by the Trump White House that 200,000 Americans will die of the coronavirus before all this is over, what is the bottom line?

The bottom line is 3,807 older Americans with preexisting health issues have died in the past three months within a population of 327 million.

The bottom line is, that fact is uniquely unremarkable.

During the press conference today, Dr. Deborah Birx presented a rather startling graph. It is unavailable on the internet. It showed that New York state and New Jersey, which is connected to the N.Y. city metro area, are anomalies. The rest of the states, all 48 of them, appear to have Covid-19 under control.

This link confirms that fact. United States Coronavirus: 188,280 Cases and 3,883 Deaths - Worldometer

Please go to the graph showing the states. The number of cases is secondary to the fatality rate of this virus. The common cold is, well, common. Look at the number of deaths. Again, that is a three month total, and, again, considering the fact that we are talking about the sick and the elderly, the figures are quite ordinary, perhaps even low.

Trump's medical experts finally confirmed something else I have been saying all along. The Trump White House still refuses to give us an age breakdown of the deceased, but Dr. Birx told us that, while the young do get infected, they recover. She said that the mortality rate "increases with age and preexisting medical conditions."

That is the closest the Trump White House will get to providing the age and condition of those who succumb to this new common cold virus. Why is that?

Take away New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans and the media wouldn't have much to talk about.

Your portrayal of the situation is far too rosy. 48 states have the situation under control? Not even close.

The bottom line is that we are flying blind because only about 1 million Americans have been tested so far. That's the main reason the number of positive test cases is relatively low in the vast majority of states so far.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

You think its Republican spin? Raw Story is pretty far from Republican.

The Raw Story | Early exit polls predict Kerry will be victor

You're just showing the exit poll results. Is there a point to this?

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Here is someone that knows a lot about polling:

Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls | FiveThirtyEight

Sorry, but Nate Silver is not more of an authority on this topic than Dr. Steve Freeman from MIT.

 

[marke]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

The good news is that all million of those who die can go to heaven if they repent of their sins now and ask Jesus to save them.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

It is a conspiracy theory because it was proven to be a conspiracy theory. The facts tell a completely different story than what both freeman and kennedy are saying.
but you don't care about facts which is why you are a conspiracy theorist.

500 butt hurt leftist legal scholars opinion are inconsequential to what the law actually says. they can have their opinion but that doesn't determine what facts are.
the law determines what the facts are. finding 500 other butt hurt leftist that agree with you is called a circular logic fallacy.

Actually now it wasn't. The exit polls were WRONG as mitofsky pointed out. There was bad data collected from the people they were polling.
They were the ones that did the polls. they were not dishonest.

Again being peer reviewed by people that agree with you is not a peer review.
yes your conspiracy theories are irrelevant.

Sorry, a Trump cultist such as you doesn't get to decide what is a conspiracy theory and what isn't. Not when you Repugs constantly cry about your "Deep State" bull****. You instantly lost any credibility that you ever had by voting for Trump.

And you became a Trump cultist by continuing to support this racist corrupt incompetent traitor for the past 3 years.

 

[OpportunityCost]

You're just showing the exit poll results. Is there a point to this?

Yes, you are misrepresenting the numbers to support your weak argument.

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[OpportunityCost]

Sorry, but Nate Silver is not more of an authority on this topic than Dr. Steve Freeman from MIT.

Appeal to authority doesn't get much more blatant than that.

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[OpportunityCost]

Sorry, a Trump cultist such as you doesn't get to decide what is a conspiracy theory and what isn't. Not when you Repugs constantly cry about your "Deep State" bull****. You instantly lost any credibility that you ever had by voting for Trump.

And you became a Trump cultist by continuing to support this racist corrupt incompetent traitor for the past 3 years.

Orange man bad negates all blargh!!!!

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[Kerry Won Ohio]

You extrapolated the people who have been tested to the entire population to derive a nationwide infection rate, this is an unwarranted extrapolation and ruins your calculation.

You're probably right. I think 35 million Americans is probably too high at the moment. But reckless states like Florida and Texas will ensure that we get there in the next few months.

Maybe the 2% death rate is too high as well. Not sure.

 

[ludin]

Sorry, a Trump cultist such as you doesn't get to decide what is a conspiracy theory and what isn't. Not when you Repugs constantly cry about your "Deep State" bull****. You instantly lost any credibility that you ever had by voting for Trump.

And you became a Trump cultist by continuing to support this racist corrupt incompetent traitor for the past 3 years.

that is the cool think about opinions they really don't matter.
see you don't get to declare who has credibliy or not.

credibility is determined by facts not opinions.
YOu made claims that were 100% debunked.

that is all that we need to know.
like all conspiracy theories.

these are the ad hominems that make you lose.