The Cold Hard Math -- At Least 1 Million Americans Are Going to Die from Coronavirus This Year

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Yes, we know. There is no doubt that the number of people with the virus is much larger than the number of confirmed cases. That is because, again, we're only testing people suspected of having the virus.

However, it is highly unlikely we're off by multiple orders of magnitude. For example, the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is anywhere between 10% and 20%. If 35 million Americans had COVID-19 right now, with a 10% rate there would be at least 3 million people in hospitals right now, and we're at less than 20,000.

Even if the hospitalization rate was 1%, that would be 350,000 hospitalizations. That's roughly a hospitalization rate of 0.06% -- which is lower than the mortality rate for the flu. That just doesn't add up.

There is no question this will spread quickly -- if it continues to spread at its current rate, we'll have 35 million confirmed cases by the end of April -- but it's not the measles. (R0 for COVID-19 is around 3, and for measles it's around 18.)

How are we "off by orders of magnitude"? We've only tested 900,000 so far. The bottom line is that we don't know how many Americans have it right now. So there is no way you can say we are "off by orders of magnitude". Perhaps millions of Americans have not shown any symptoms yet. But they will and very soon.

It could be 35 million as I estimated, but maybe it's only 5 million right now. But it's going to keep spreading, that's the bottom line. 1 million deaths this year is a definite possibility.

 

[ludin]

"State issue"....LOL, keep telling yourself that Repug small government bull**** as the death toll exceeds 500K. You're clueless and you always will be.

And everything else that you stated is most likely Repug horse**** also.

See folks this is why leftist never win an argument. when presented by facts that show the incompetence of local gov. who said eh we don't need them because
we don't have enough people qualified to run them we won't purchase them.

Then they are screaming that they don't have enough when 2 years ago they would have had more had they bought them it shows a complete lack of logical thinking.

when confronted by facts this is what they turn to ad hominems and can't actually make an argument.

 

[ludin]

Yes, exit polls are more accurate. Because people do cheat in elections. Hence, the reason the UN uses exit polls to monitor elections. What you just described is a case of election cheating.

Wrong as always.

No they are not more accurate. There is no evidence of election fraud remember?
to monitor elections election not used for for actually who wins or losses.

yes you are wrong as always.

monitoring an election is one thing. no one uses exit polls as the final vote tally.
that is why we count votes and not use exit polls.

there is 0 evidence of election fraud so yes you are wrong as always.

 

[Paradoxical]

However, you numbers are slanted because we're NOT doing random testing as you're theory assumes. WE are being selective as to who even gets tested. So, these 900,000 had be triaged and a medical professional determined they warranted testing.

Don't confuse them with facts.

 

[ludin]

You say Trump was criminally slow, and yet I distinctly recall the bleating, mostly from the left, when he moved to close down travel from China and then Europe - the left claimed that was an overreaction and many on the left were claiming those who were avoiding Chinese restaurants, etc. were racists because the Chinese weren't responsible for the virus. His actions to close the borders probably saved the US healthcare system from being flooded with thousands more carriers traveling to your country to infect unsuspecting innocents.

Trump, in my view, is one of the few world leaders who's trying to look at the totality of the issues involved and not just at the virus spread/healthcare aspects while ignoring everything else. I'm not a fan of President Trump, but unless you hate the guy it's hard to call him "criminal" in this regard.

to a leftist feelings matter more than facts.

 

[Jetboogieman]

See folks this is why leftist never win an argument. when presented by facts that show the incompetence of local gov. who said eh we don't need them because
we don't have enough people qualified to run them we won't purchase them.

Then they are screaming that they don't have enough when 2 years ago they would have had more had they bought them it shows a complete lack of logical thinking.

when confronted by facts this is what they turn to ad hominems and can't actually make an argument.

The only reason you are saying any of this is to shield Trump from any critisism.

That's it, you don't care about the health or well being of the people, which stands to reason since you're an American Conservative who's policy on Public Health is "let the ****ers pay and if they can't they should get ****ed and die, should have been rich if you wanted to live idiots" whilst speaking to a single mother of three working 4 jobs and taking night school who happens to get sick.

Your only concern in all this, is Trump, is he going to be ok politically from this.

**** the people.

**** the country.

Glory to Trump.

That's ludin.

State issue... Holy Jesus Christ on a cracker.

 

[CanadaJohn]

Yes, we know. There is no doubt that the number of people with the virus is much larger than the number of confirmed cases. That is because, again, we're only testing people suspected of having the virus.

However, it is highly unlikely we're off by multiple orders of magnitude. For example, the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is anywhere between 10% and 20%. If 35 million Americans had COVID-19 right now, with a 10% rate there would be at least 3 million people in hospitals right now, and we're at less than 20,000.

Even if the hospitalization rate was 1%, that would be 350,000 hospitalizations. That's roughly a hospitalization rate of 0.06% -- which is lower than the mortality rate for the flu. That just doesn't add up.

There is no question this will spread quickly -- if it continues to spread at its current rate, we'll have 35 million confirmed cases by the end of April -- but it's not the measles. (R0 for COVID-19 is around 3, and for measles it's around 18.)

Numbers are really all over the place and can validate anyone's position on the issue.

As an example, here in Canada, hospitalizations are around 5 to 6% - ICU cases, requiring ventilators, is around 3% and the death rate is less than 1% Much of the numbers, such as in Italy, are driven by external issues. For example, Italy has a much higher percentage of their population being older and a much higher percentage of the population, including that older demographic who are smokers, two strong indicators that if infected, those people will suffer severely and many more will die.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

You say Trump was criminally slow, and yet I distinctly recall the bleating, mostly from the left, when he moved to close down travel from China and then Europe - the left claimed that was an overreaction and many on the left were claiming those who were avoiding Chinese restaurants, etc. were racists because the Chinese weren't responsible for the virus. His actions to close the borders probably saved the US healthcare system from being flooded with thousands more carriers traveling to your country to infect unsuspecting innocents.

Trump, in my view, is one of the few world leaders who's trying to look at the totality of the issues involved and not just at the virus spread/healthcare aspects while ignoring everything else. I'm not a fan of President Trump, but unless you hate the guy it's hard to call him "criminal" in this regard.

OK, so show me your evidence of "bleating from the left". Show me which Democrats in Congress complained about it.

Or is this just typical Repug bull****? Yep.

The fact is that Trump ignored the intel reports that he received in January and February that stated COVID-19 was going to be devastating. He should have signed the Defense Production Act two months ago. Now we're ****ed.

 

[CanadaJohn]

to a leftist feelings matter more than facts.

Unless you've been living under a rock the past many years, you'll know that the bleaters on social media and the panic drivers on mainstream media drive the agenda - most of those, in the era of Trump derangement, are leftists.

 

[Paradoxical]

I know I’ve done this before so I’m hardly a perfect messenger, but this prediction business of how many people are going to die is getting seriously ****ing morbid.

It is not. We should discuss it and find out what is most likely true so we can take whatever steps we may need as individuals to respond to the problem at hand.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

No they are not more accurate. There is no evidence of election fraud remember?
to monitor elections election not used for for actually who wins or losses.

yes you are wrong as always.

monitoring an election is one thing. no one uses exit polls as the final vote tally.
that is why we count votes and not use exit polls.

there is 0 evidence of election fraud so yes you are wrong as always.

No, there is no evidence of election fraud by VOTERS. There is plenty of election fraud by election officials. Remember what happened in N. Carolina's 9th district recently? That did not happen?

Wrong as always.

 

[CanadaJohn]

OK, so show me your evidence of "bleating from the left". Show me which Democrats in Congress complained about it.

Or is this just typical Repug bull****? Yep.

The fact is that Trump ignored the intel reports that he received in January and February that stated COVID-19 was going to be devastating. He should have signed the Defense Production Act two months ago. Now we're ****ed.

I appreciate, as a liberal, you want even a government you hate to have the power to control all aspects of your life. Just for your benefit, several American governors, of both persuasions, counselled the President not to do what you suggest.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

to a leftist feelings matter more than facts.

Yes, that's definitely true for Repug Trump cultists. That's why most of them are racists, including Trump.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

I appreciate, as a liberal, you want even a government you hate to have the power to control all aspects of your life. Just for your benefit, several American governors, of both persuasions, counselled the President not to do what you suggest.

Is there a point to this bull****? Changing the subject because you know I'm right. Typical.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

I appreciate, as a liberal, you want even a government you hate to have the power to control all aspects of your life. Just for your benefit, several American governors, of both persuasions, counselled the President not to do what you suggest.

Still waiting for your evidence. You got nothin, homey.

 

[ludin]

Unless you've been living under a rock the past many years, you'll know that the bleaters on social media and the panic drivers on mainstream media drive the agenda - most of those, in the era of Trump derangement, are leftists.

I have. I have seen how unhinged these people really are.
it is scary when people are this unstable. you don't know what they are going to do next.

 

[ludin]

The only reason you are saying any of this is to shield Trump from any critisism.

Not at all not that i expect you to be honest.
If i am told in a meeting that we have 2k of product X but in an emergency i am going to need 14k more. Right now i have the ability to get those 14k more, but
i don't buy them how is that not my fault? how can i blame someone else for my own incompentence? i can't. Yet here we have it.

That's it, you don't care about the health or well being of the people, which stands to reason since you're an American Conservative who's policy on Public Health is "let the ****ers pay and if they can't they should get ****ed and die, should have been rich if you wanted to live idiots" whilst speaking to a single mother of three working 4 jobs and taking night school who happens to get sick.

Next folks when confronted by facts the typical leftist will use several fallacy arguments that we see here.
First we have the paint brush fallacy tagged in coordination with an appeal to emotion fallacy.

I simply just do not care about people for pointing out the logical stupidity that is being engaged by local government.
That is followed up by "let the ****ers pay and if they can't they should whatever and die."

Yet the person saying this has no clue on my views on healthcare. he has enacted the paintbrush fallacy and a projection fallacy here folks.
There is no point in addressing this because the argument is invalid from the get go. He then ends his argument with another appeal to emotion argument
by some made up person that i have never seen nor talked to.
Your only concern in all this, is Trump, is he going to be ok politically from this.

**** the people.

**** the country.

Glory to Trump.

That's ludin.

State issue... Holy Jesus Christ on a cracker.

yes that is you but that is to be expected from leftist.
you don't get to project your mentality onto me or anyone else.

 

[ludin]

Yes, that's definitely true for Repug Trump cultists. That's why most of them are racists, including Trump.

actually they are not. not that i expect you to know what you are talking about.
the only cultist are the leftists your projection arguments are what are failures.

 

[Visbek]

How are we "off by orders of magnitude"? We've only tested 900,000 so far.

Confirmed cases: ~150,000
Your claim: 35 million cases

If you are correct, then the real number is 233 times greater than the confirmed number. That's two orders of magnitude, yes?

The bottom line is that we don't know how many Americans have it right now.

I agree we don't know, but I already explained why we can reasonably assume we are not off by 34,850,000 cases.

It could be 35 million as I estimated, but maybe it's only 5 million right now.

That's... a pretty substantial difference, no?

1 million deaths this year is a definite possibility.

It's possible, but highly unlikely.

Reports by actual experts indicate that if we do nothing whatsoever, COVID-19 would kill 2.3 million people. However, that means no reaction whatsoever -- no cancellation of large groups, no one deciding on their own to shelter in place or socially distance, and so on. The authors of the study only modeled that number as a baseline to measure the impact of different mitigation and suppression efforts, not to suggest that it was a likely outcome.


It is possible that some parts of the US will bail on social distancing before they should; and by the time they realize what they've done, it's too late. However, I expect Fauci is right; we may have already locked in 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. The longer people resist social distancing, mitigation and/or suppression efforts, and/or the longer it takes us to get to a South Korea-style testing-and-surveillance setup, the more lives will be lost. But right now, 1 million lives sounds like far too high a number.

 

[Mason66]

Exactly -- they aren't testing the people that are NOT showing symptoms. And those asymptomatic people have undoubtedly spread the virus to millions of other Americans who have not gotten sick yet.

That's also why 35 million Americans having COVID-19 could be a conservative estimate.

You are trying to say that everybody that is not showing symptoms is asymptomatic and are spreading the disease?

Could it be that they don't have the disease?

 

[Jay59]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads. I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic. During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19. Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward. Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

Math challenged on top of other issues. So sad for you. Have you ever heard of GIGO? If not, google it. When your assumptions are wrong, no result is reliable.

One thing you may not have caught is that the large majority of those testing positive show no symptoms. An as yet unknown number never will. With any virus, you can have it and get over it, without ever realizing it was there. Here's where your faulty assumptions will bite you. You assume that the mortality number--2% is too high BTW--is of those infected. It's not. It's of those showing symptoms. That number is not reported separately.

Also worth considering, the experts early predictions may have been wrong. By projections in early March, Italy should have over 200,000 dead by now. They have not passed 11,000. Signs are becoming clear that the steps taken are effective. Here is the Times on the subject: Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working - The New York Times

Get some facts. Learn which numbers to use. Perhaps you will not embarrass yourself like this again. There's always hope.

 

[ludin]

No, there is no evidence of election fraud by VOTERS. There is plenty of election fraud by election officials. Remember what happened in N. Carolina's 9th district recently? That did not happen?

Wrong as always.

there is no evidence of election fraud period by anyone.
if there was fraud in the votes it would have shown up it doesn't.

the votes are the votes.

the exit polls got it wrong. it happens. why? projections are not perfect estimates are wrong sometimes.
that is why they are not USED to determine winners or losers.

this is why we count actual vote tallies.

The person that was involved has been charged with 3 charges and has been arrested.
so thanks for playing but you are wrong as always.

Yep there was a situation the situation was caught and dealt with and there was a new election.
SO the system worked in stopping and preventing any fraud by any outside agents.

congrats on proving my point that there was no election fraud.

 

[ludin]

You are trying to say that everybody that is not showing symptoms is asymptomatic and are spreading the disease?

Could it be that they don't have the disease?

you are trying to talk logic and reason to someone that spouts conspiracy theories.

 

[Visbek]

Numbers are really all over the place and can validate anyone's position on the issue.

As an example, here in Canada, hospitalizations are around 5 to 6% - ICU cases, requiring ventilators, is around 3% and the death rate is less than 1%.

Some numbers are uncertain (such as the real total number of cases). Others are not.

Some numbers change in response to conditions. If doctors tell people to stay home, the hospitalization rate will fall. Obviously, in many cases that can be counter-productive or result in worse outcomes. Or, if we test more broadly, official mortality rates will likely drop.

The number of deaths, number of people in hospitals, R0, the number of ventilators, how many days of PPE a hospital has on hand, that's pretty solid.

Hospitalization rates are solid enough to say that the US does not have 35 million (or 5 million) total cases.

Italy has a much higher percentage of their population being older and a much higher percentage of the population, including that older demographic who are smokers, two strong indicators that if infected, those people will suffer severely and many more will die.

That's almost certainly not the case.

The high mortality rate in Italy is very likely a result of ineffective controls, hospitals getting slammed, combined with limiting testing to more severe cases. South Korea has almost as many elderly people as a percentage of the population, and consumes more cigarettes per capita than Italy (yes, really, look it up), yet its suppression methods worked. South Korea also tested much more aggressively than Italy.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

You are trying to say that everybody that is not showing symptoms is asymptomatic and are spreading the disease?

Could it be that they don't have the disease?

No, but a lot of them have it.