The Cold Hard Math -- At Least 1 Million Americans Are Going to Die from Coronavirus This Year

[ttwtt78640]

It is premature of you to say that the death rate in this country is less than 2%. What do you base that on? The fact that a lot more people have not died yet? They will, it's a certainty.

According to this website, the death rate in Italy is 11%. The death rate in Spain is 8.3%. Furthermore, since we don't currently have the necessary number of hospital beds and ventilators to meet this crisis, the U.S. death percentage rate could match or exceed what is happening in Italy and Spain.

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

You again ignore the fact that very few of those with COVID-19 are being tested - thus confirmation (actual testing) of those with COVID-19 is being limited to those seeking treatment (or being found dead).

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

You again ignore the fact that very few of those with COVID-19 are being tested - thus confirmation (actual testing) of those with COVID-19 is being limited to those seeking treatment (or being found dead).

I'm not ignoring it at all. I've read/heard several stories of sick people trying to get tested, but can't due to the lack of test availability. I believe the number of infected Americans can be anywhere from 10% - 20%. I don't understand your point.

 

[ttwtt78640]

I'm not ignoring it at all. I've read/heard several stories of sick people trying to get tested, but can't due to the lack of test availability. I believe the number of infected Americans can be anywhere from 10% - 20%. I don't understand your point.

My point is just that - if the number of infected turns out to be 20% instead of 10% then the mortality rate reported (guesstimated) was, in fact, doubled.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

My point is just that - if the number of infected turns out to be 20% instead of 10% then the mortality rate reported (guesstimated) was, in fact, doubled.

OK, so you're saying the number of dead Americans this year will far exceed 1 million?

 

[Hawkeye10]

At Least 1 Million Americans Are Going to Die from Coronavirus This Year

We can cut down the number of people who die this year by murdering the economy, but the number of people who die all together depends upon five things:

1) when do we get effective treatments?

2) when do we get a vaccine?

3) how fast does this bug mutate?

4) when does this bug go away?

5) the quality of the medical systems, which in the West so far have rather sucked except for Germany.

 

[ttwtt78640]

OK, so you're saying the number of dead Americans this year will far exceed 1 million?

Nope, I'm saying that nobody can know that from the insufficient data available.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Nope, I'm saying that nobody can know that from the insufficient data available.

In what way is it insufficient? A sample size of 900,000 is insufficient?

 

[grainbelt]

Trump had cut the expected death toll from 5M to 1M to 100K. That is some effective leadership right there. A vote for Biden is a vote for 4.9M Americans to die from Coronavirus. Their fate is in your hands !!!!

What hole did you pull those numbers out of? Did he know it would be 5mil deaths but lie to us and tell us it was no big deal and would be cured in a week and back to business as usual?

At the end we will compare America to other countries for possibly the best comparison. The US is already the epicenter ffs. That means we messed up. You know who else messed up? Italy and China to name a few.

But..just look at how painfully slow the testing has rolled out compared to other countries. The admin and response was caught with their pants on the ground. And we still dont have mass testing.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

[Hawkeye10]

What hole did you pull those numbers out of? Did he know it would be 5mil deaths but lie to us and tell us it was no big deal and would be cured in a week and back to business as usual?

At the end we will compare America to other countries for possibly the best comparison. The US is already the epicenter ffs. That means we messed up. You know who else messed up? Italy and China to name a few.

But..just look at how painfully slow the testing has rolled out compared to other countries. The admin and response was caught with their pants on the ground. And we still dont have mass testing.

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No country in the West besides Germany is doing this anywhere near right, though many the East are, this is what you should notice.

THE WEST IS DYING

 

[GDViking]

I don't know how many will die but I do know it's a he'll of a lot more than would if this had been properly handled...

 

[Visbek]

In what way is it insufficient? A sample size of 900,000 is insufficient?

It is, when the sample is biased.

Again: No one has conducted tests on a representative sample of Americans. The people who are getting tested right now are heavily biased towards having the disease. Therefore, you cannot justifiably proclaim that the testing we've done so far is representative of the population as a whole.

C'mon, man. This is just basic statistics.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

It is, when the sample is biased.

Again: No one has conducted tests on a representative sample of Americans. The people who are getting tested right now are heavily biased towards having the disease. Therefore, you cannot justifiably proclaim that the testing we've done so far is representative of the population as a whole.

C'mon, man. This is just basic statistics.

Nope, you c'mon. You obviously don't understand basic statistics, but I took calculus-based statistics in college.

There are thousands of Americans who have not been tested and are showing no symptoms. And these thousands of Americans have exponentially spread the virus to thousands of other Americans. You have NO idea how many people have it. It could be a lot more than the 10% of Americans that I mentioned.

 

[Simpletruther]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

If 35 million already have it, we will know pretty soon if 700k die, within a month I would think.

So it’s its more like 70k next month, which I think is a better guess, we can look back at how crazy this prediction looks.

 

[ludin]

Why do you think it will take until May or June to reach a peak?

It is possible given the lack of lock downs in hot spots in which people are leaving those hot spots and
going to other places to create new ones.

The Gov of these hot spot states have been responsible for allowing people to leave instead of enforcing their stay at home orders
and spreading the virus to other area's that didn't have it.

We have seen spikes down here because of all the people fleeing NY and NJ.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

No country in the West besides Germany is doing this anywhere near right, though many the East are, this is what you should notice.

THE WEST IS DYING

Yeah, most countries are not doing a good job. And we are currently doing much worse than most of those countries.

 

[ludin]

Nope, you c'mon. You obviously don't understand basic statistics, but I took calculus-based statistics in college.

There are thousands of Americans who have not been tested and are showing no symptoms. And these thousands of Americans have exponentially spread the virus to thousands of other Americans. You have NO idea how many people have it. It could be a lot more than the 10% of Americans that I mentioned.

Given the fact that you think exit poll data is more accurate than actual counting votes we know for a fact that you did not take calculus based statistics.
There could be yes, but it is not possible to test all 330m Americans. so you have to focus on where the major issues are.

None of my family have it so it is a waste of tests to test us.

 

[ludin]

Yeah, most countries are not doing a good job. And we are currently doing much worse than most of those countries.

Not really we are doing actually pretty well.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Not really we are doing actually pretty well.

No, we're not. Trump did not take this threat nearly seriously enough. He wasted two months. The Defense Production Act should have been signed two months ago. We are not going to have enough hospital beds, ventilators, and PPEs for everyone. That's going to cause even more deaths.

We are going to make Italy look like a picnic. We will have 2,000 Americans dying per day in April and May.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Given the fact that you think exit poll data is more accurate than actual counting votes we know for a fact that you did not take calculus based statistics.
There could be yes, but it is not possible to test all 330m Americans. so you have to focus on where the major issues are.

None of my family have it so it is a waste of tests to test us.

Yep, exit polls are more reliable. That's why they are used by the United Nations to monitor elections in Third World countries.

The UN needs to monitor the 2020 U.S. election, because Trump will steal it. Just like Bush stole the 2004 election.

 

[ludin]

No, we're not. Trump did not take this threat nearly seriously enough. He wasted two months. The Defense Production Act should have been signed two months ago. We are not going to have enough hospital beds, ventilators, and PPEs for everyone. That's going to cause even more deaths.

We are going to make Italy look like a picnic. We will have 2,000 Americans dying per day in April and May.

That is a state issue not a Federal issue.
the GOv of NY bitching about the ventilators could have had all of them he needed but he refused to order them even though
he was already short before the virus.

Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey, who said that in 2015, Cuomo and other state officials learned that in a potential pandemic, New York would need 18,000 ventilators but only had 2,000 on hand.
Then-state health commissioner Howard Zucker assembled a task force for rationing the ventilators they already had that recommended that the state not purchase the 16,000 ventilators because there weren’t enough doctors and medical personnel to operate them.

So to the state rationing them was a good enough solution so they didn't purchase them when they should have.
now they are in a quandary and attempting to blame other people for their failure.

There is a global demand for ventilators. Companies can't make them fast enough.
The DPA would not have made a difference. Even if you order company X to make them it will
take time for them to refit and ramp up production.

you have 0 evidence to support your claims like always.

 

[ludin]

Yep, exit polls are more reliable. That's why they are used by the United Nations to monitor elections in Third World countries.

The UN needs to monitor the 2020 U.S. election, because Trump will steal it. Just like Bush stole the 2004 election.

No exit polls are not more accurate than counting actual votes. lol. exit polls are estimates not actual truth or values.
so they are not more accurate than counting actual votes. this proves for a fact you did not take statistics.

They are used as estimates they are not facts. This is why we count actual votes and we do not go by exit polls.
Neither trump nor bush stole an election. this is why we count votes.

So according to you if we poll 300 out of 1000 people and 250 of those people say we votes for person X then
that is more accurate than counting all 1000 votes and it shows that person Y has 650 votes compared to 350 votes of person x.

lmao. you can't get any better than that folks.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

That is a state issue not a Federal issue.
the GOv of NY bitching about the ventilators could have had all of them he needed but he refused to order them even though
he was already short before the virus.

Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey, who said that in 2015, Cuomo and other state officials learned that in a potential pandemic, New York would need 18,000 ventilators but only had 2,000 on hand.
Then-state health commissioner Howard Zucker assembled a task force for rationing the ventilators they already had that recommended that the state not purchase the 16,000 ventilators because there weren’t enough doctors and medical personnel to operate them.

So to the state rationing them was a good enough solution so they didn't purchase them when they should have.
now they are in a quandary and attempting to blame other people for their failure.

There is a global demand for ventilators. Companies can't make them fast enough.
The DPA would not have made a difference. Even if you order company X to make them it will
take time for them to refit and ramp up production.

you have 0 evidence to support your claims like always.

"State issue"....LOL, keep telling yourself that Repug small government bull**** as the death toll exceeds 500K. You're clueless and you always will be.

And everything else that you stated is most likely Repug horse**** also.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

No exit polls are not more accurate than counting actual votes. lol. exit polls are estimates not actual truth or values.
so they are not more accurate than counting actual votes. this proves for a fact you did not take statistics.

They are used as estimates they are not facts. This is why we count actual votes and we do not go by exit polls.
Neither trump nor bush stole an election. this is why we count votes.

So according to you if we poll 300 out of 1000 people and 250 of those people say we votes for person X then
that is more accurate than counting all 1000 votes and it shows that person Y has 650 votes compared to 350 votes of person x.

lmao. you can't get any better than that folks.

Yes, exit polls are more accurate. Because people do cheat in elections. Hence, the reason the UN uses exit polls to monitor elections. What you just described is a case of election cheating.

Wrong as always.

 

[Visbek]

There are thousands of Americans who have not been tested and are showing no symptoms....

Yes, we know. There is no doubt that the number of people with the virus is much larger than the number of confirmed cases. That is because, again, we're only testing people suspected of having the virus.

However, it is highly unlikely we're off by multiple orders of magnitude. For example, the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is anywhere between 10% and 20%. If 35 million Americans had COVID-19 right now, with a 10% rate there would be at least 3 million people in hospitals right now, and we're at less than 20,000.

Even if the hospitalization rate was 1%, that would be 350,000 hospitalizations. That's roughly a hospitalization rate of 0.06% -- which is lower than the mortality rate for the flu. That just doesn't add up.

There is no question this will spread quickly -- if it continues to spread at its current rate, we'll have 35 million confirmed cases by the end of April -- but it's not the measles. (R0 for COVID-19 is around 3, and for measles it's around 18.)

 

[CanadaJohn]

I'm not going to take this opportunity to bash Trump, although he certainly deserves it. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been criminally slow, incompetent, and inexcusable. I'll save the bashing of that disgrace for other threads.

I'm just going to focus on the number of deaths this country is going to face this year from this pandemic.

During Trump's press conference tonight, the Coast Guard Admiral mentioned that approximately 900,000 Americans have been tested so far. Out of that 900,000 Americans, approximately 137,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. That is a positive test rate of approximately 15%.

For the sake of argument, let's make a conservative estimate and say that only 10% of Americans nationwide currently have COVID-19. There are approximately 350 million Americans in this country. That means at least 35 million Americans already have COVID-19.

Out of those 35 million Americans, let's make a conservative estimate that only 2% of those 35 million Americans die. That's 700,000 Americans that are going to die no matter what else we do, from this day forward.

Since many states still have not strictly enforced social distancing, thousands more Americans are still going to catch the virus and die this year. Therefore, the total death toll will be over 1 million Americans by the end of the year, possibly a lot more than that.

You say Trump was criminally slow, and yet I distinctly recall the bleating, mostly from the left, when he moved to close down travel from China and then Europe - the left claimed that was an overreaction and many on the left were claiming those who were avoiding Chinese restaurants, etc. were racists because the Chinese weren't responsible for the virus. His actions to close the borders probably saved the US healthcare system from being flooded with thousands more carriers traveling to your country to infect unsuspecting innocents.

Trump, in my view, is one of the few world leaders who's trying to look at the totality of the issues involved and not just at the virus spread/healthcare aspects while ignoring everything else. I'm not a fan of President Trump, but unless you hate the guy it's hard to call him "criminal" in this regard.