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Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Thread]

Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Urban / Suburban areas nearly always report quicker, due to higher technology.
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That's an interesting point. I had never considered that.

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Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Source: (CNN) Ohio special election and primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state: What to watch

Reference: (538.com) Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election

Results: (NYT)Ohio Special Election Results: 12th Congressional District

Polls are about to close, in what may be a predictor of November's House results.

Enjoy!
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Another very creative ‘shape’ for this CD, looking like quite the creature.

The greater the perimeter to area ratio of the CD, the more it’s gerrymandered, telling us why Ohio is 12-4 for GOPs.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Linc said:
Another very creative ‘shape’ for this CD, looking like quite the creature.

The greater the perimeter to area ratio of the CD, the more it’s gerrymandered, telling us why Ohio is 12-4 for GOPs.
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Damn, Linc. That's an astute observation. Thanks! :thumbs:
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Pardon my ignorance, but is this one of those districts that ended up getting redrawn and will have to go through election again in November?
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

O'Connor's doing below the benchmarks the NYT had for his win in every county that's finished reporting so far. And he just slid below it in Franklin County. Looking like a 3-5% ish Balderson win to me.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Anagram said:
O'Connor's doing below the benchmarks the NYT had for his win in every county that's finished reporting so far. And he just slid below it in Franklin County. Looking like a 3-5% ish Balderson win to me.
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Didn't see that, but can see it's less than 2% difference on the Ohio Election Board site.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Anagram said:
O'Connor's doing below the benchmarks the NYT had for his win in every county that's finished reporting so far. And he just slid below it in Franklin County. Looking like a 3-5% ish Balderson win to me.
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Even a win is a loss

Though voters don't head to the polls until Tuesday, Republicans already lost the special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District. That will remain true even if their candidate actually wins the race and is elected to office.

Why? As in other, high-profile special election battles over the past year or so — think Georgia's 6th District, or Pennsylvania's 18th — the GOP has been forced to pour an exorbitant amount of resources into defending a seat that should be safe. "

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-ohio-special-election-is-already-a-loss-for-the-gop
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The W/E is not exactly a liberal rag.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Wow it’s so close.


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Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

The GOP will probably sneak out a win but that’s worrisome for the GOP heading into November!


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Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Looks like it's all on Delaware county.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Richland, Marrow, and Marion are all tapped out. Muskingum and Licking Counties are right at the edge of tapping out. Those are all the red counties. Franklin is the solid blue county and is 23 districts away from being done but has the biggest population. Delaware has 121 districts yet to count. And this county seems to be about as purple as can be so far.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Yep, big dump in Franklin, tapping-out the CD's other counties, leaving Delaware largely unreported running 51-48 Balderson with 24% in.

Damn, it's going to really be close!
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

poweRob said:
Richland, Marrow, and Marion are all tapped out. Muskingum and Licking Counties are right at the edge of tapping out. Those are all the red counties. Franklin is the solid blue county and is 23 districts away from being done but has the biggest population. Delaware has 121 districts yet to count. And this county seems to be about as purple as can be so far.
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Licking county just tapped out.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Yep, big dump in Franklin, tapping-out the CD's other counties, leaving Delaware largely unreported running 51-48 Balderson with 24% in.

Damn, it's going to really be close!
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Franklin has 17 districts left to count. Delaware has 97 districts left to count. And the rest of the counties combined have 1 district to count.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Another nail-biter. Down to two major areas, Delaware and Franklin. 80% on the pro D,40% on the pro R. Hoping the Delaware (pro R) stays flat on the spread...
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Changing my prediction to Balderson 1-2%. Delaware County's E-day votes haven't been as Republican compared to the early vote so far as the other counties have. Who knows where the precincts that have reported already are though. Could be the ones down by Franklin that would be good for O'Connor. Or it could be the ones up north that would be good for Balderson.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Alrighty... they are all tapped out but Franklin and Delaware counties.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

13 districts left for Franklin
77 districts left for Delaware
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Damn, Linc. That's an astute observation. Thanks! :thumbs:
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As I’m just back on the grid, besides the iPhone, radio and newspapers out there, just saw an incredible catch by the White Sox Center Fielder. That’s all I missed from cable, sports.

The ‘shape’ of this CD certainly tells us why the 36 governors up this year are so important for the 2021 remaps. And to especially mention both state houses voting this year.

Barely winning a heavily GMed CD for a few months is hardly worth celebrating, especially since the GOP winner will be further stained by the ruling party.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Running some quick numbers off-the-top-of-my head, using the same ratio of the currently cast votes, I came up with +200 votes for O'Connor!

Yow! Those ratios won't hold, but this is predicting a really, really, close finish. Under a thousand votes I suspect, and definitely into recount territory if that option is available.

It will all come down to if the ratios hold in Delaware ...
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Amazing. 85% in and still 50/50.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Anagram said:
Changing my prediction to Balderson 1-2%. Delaware County's E-day votes haven't been as Republican compared to the early vote so far as the other counties have. Who knows where the precincts that have reported already are though. Could be the ones down by Franklin that would be good for O'Connor. Or it could be the ones up north that would be good for Balderson.
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O.K. Anagram, we'll give you one more shot at switching predictions, but it's got to be your last! :2razz:
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Once again, out of all the possible results, the results are basically tied. :shock:
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Running some quick numbers off-the-top-of-my head, using the same ratio of the currently cast votes, I came up with +200 votes for O'Connor!

Yow! Those ratios won't hold, but this is predicting a really, really, close finish. Under a thousand votes I suspect, and definitely into recount territory if that option is available.

It will all come down to if the ratios hold in Delaware ...
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These bastard counties are holding onto their uncounted precincts like they are clinching in a golden turd.


COUNT ALREADY!
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

poweRob said:
These bastard counties are holding onto their uncounted precincts like they are clinching in a golden turd.


COUNT ALREADY!
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Franklin is far more populous than Delaware. If Balderdash is banking on Franklin then I think he’s in for a disappointing finish.
 
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