No news agency ever predicted that Florence would be a Category 5 hurricane, not one. What you read and what your mind wanted to read are two different things. What they DID say on Tuesday the hurricane was a Category 4 with sustained winds of 140 mph and gusts of 170 mph and could potentially become a Cat 5. Just so you understand how hurricanes are categorized based on wind speed. As you can clearly see from the table below, the difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 is an increase of 1 mph or greater. There has only been three Cat 5 hurricanes that have struck the east coast of the US, Andrew-1992, Camille-1969 and an unnamed storm in 1930.
As everyone knows, or should know, nobody can predict what a hurricane will do with any certainty. Even the most skilled meteorologist utilizing the most sophisticated technology can only estimate where a hurricane will make landfall and how strong it will be when it does. It's smart to err on the side of caution and safety for people's lives with a big storm like this. As someone said, it's not wind damage that causes most deaths, it's water. These lowlands of N. Carolina have never been as densely populated before and this is a big consideration when evacuating large numbers of people. There was a 3.7 percent population increase in the Conway-Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach metro area from July 2016 to the same time in 2017, the Census Bureau estimated.
The Myrtle Beach area gained 16,372 residents, almost 45 a day
The increase of civilian populations residing in these areas along the coast has virtually exploded in numbers in the last 20 years which puts enormous numbers of people at risk if they aren't given adequate warning of an approaching hurricane, even a Cat 2 can be deadly along the coast and evacuating the shear numbers of people takes a lot of planning and many days in advance of a big storm. Everything that the news reporting did was exactly as it should have done. Playing the 'what if?' game .... what if the storm made landfall as a Cat 2 yet nobody had been forewarned or cautioned to leave. There would be a great number of people at risk of losing their life.
Category 2 (96-110 mph): Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
Category 3 (111-129 mph): Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4 (130 - 156 mph): Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Category 5 (157 mph or higher): A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
