How big will this year's deficit be?

[Conservative]

And once again you refuse to address anything i stated, and once again you address me personally. Your concession is noted.

I did indeed concede that I was wrong when I claimed you were book smart. What you addressed as usual was percentage change and not dollar growth, you do that which doesn't really provide context.

Refute that Obama's GDP growth didn't average 500 billion per year and Trump's 900 billion per year?

Refute that Obama's U-6 wasn't 9.3% when he left office, wasn't 9.2% when the recession started and Trump's wasn't 6.9% pre recession?

Refute that Obama didn't create record numbers of part time jobs for economic reasons?

Refute that the African American unemployment wasn't 2% lower under Trump pre pandemic than Obama left him?

Context matters and many book smart people I know understand that, apparently you aren't in that class

 

[Conservative]

You've rejected anything that paints the Trump administration in the poor light you yourself have constructed. On every single basis of comparison, the Trump economy performed roughly about the same as the Obama economy prior to the pandemic... other than the deficit.

Had the economy been suffering from an aggregate supply shortfall, tax cuts and regulation would have driven the economy to the point where deficits would fall as revenues would grow to reflect a boom.

But it didn't happen. And you pretend that it did. Nominal GDP isn't a metric that can be used to make historical comparison. This would be covered in a freshman macro course or sophomore economic statistics course. Nevertheless... your comparison is invalid and therefore your argument fails.

Here is exactly what isn't happening, you are looking purely at textbooks and not human nature and behavior. Tax cuts put more money into the hands of the consumers who spend it, save it, invest it, or pay down debt all helping relieve Gov't responsibility and improving economic results for both the individual and the gov't. Increased consumer activity boosts state and local tax revenues as they get most of their money from sales and property taxes.

I posted the BEA.gov link that if you bothered to research it you would find that Consumption during the three years of Trump averaged over 600 billion per year vs a little over 300 billion per year for Obama. That pesky little thing called context is ignored as most of the Trump GDP growth came from the intended Conservative choice, consumption and consumer spending.

Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product
[Billions of dollars]
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Revised on: April 29, 2020 - Next Release Date May 28, 2020

Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Line
1 Gross domestic product 14712.8 14448.9 14992.1 15542.6 16197 16784.9 17527.3 18224.8 18715 19519.4 20580.2 21427.7
2 Personal consumption expenditures 9976.3 9842.2 10185.8 10641.1 11006.8 11317.2 11822.8 12284.3 12748.5 13312.1 13998.7 14562.7
7 Gross private domestic investment 2477.6 1929.7 2165.5 2332.6 2621.8 2826 3044.2 3223.1 3178.7 3370.7 3628.3 3743.9
15 Net exports of goods and services -723.1 -396.5 -513.9 -579.5 -568.6 -490.8 -507.7 -519.8 -518.8 -575.3 -638.2 -631.9
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 2982 3073.5 3154.6 3148.4 3137 3132.4 3168 3237.3 3306.7 3412 3591.5 3753

So if you want to continue to believe percentage change is so relevant, keep at it, and keep watching the electoral reaction at the polls

 

[Kushinator]

What you addressed as usual was percentage change and not dollar growth, you do that which doesn't really provide context.

You're wrong. It's already been explained to you in detail on multiple occasions by multiple people. All you're doing is cherry-picking because you're desperate to find anything that gives the appearance of economic divergence from the trend established 10 years ago.

Tax cuts put more money into the hands of the consumers who spend it, save it, invest it, or pay down debt all helping

Notice the absence of traditional tax cuts in the CARES act.

I posted the BEA.gov link that if you bothered to research it you would find that Consumption during the three years of Trump averaged over 600 billion per year vs a little over 300 billion per year for Obama.

You're being disingenuous. Obama inherited an economy that was losing 800k jobs per month. Trump inherited an economy that was gaining 200k jobs per month. But when we make a valid historical comparison:

That pesky little thing called context is ignored as most of the Trump GDP growth came from the intended Conservative choice, consumption and consumer spending.

You're lying. The Trump economy was dependent on government spending:

So if you want to continue to believe percentage change is so relevant, keep at it

I think it's relevant. The Bureau of Economic Analysis thinks it's relevant. Ever single member here who isn't ignorant of economics thinks it's relevant. You're just desperate because reality came back to bite you. The Trump economy let you down. I called it right every step of the way... you did not. This is a fact.

and keep watching the electoral reaction at the polls

You mean heavy GOP states electing Democrat governors? You mean the HoR going back into Democrat control? :lamo

What's even more ridiculous is you've tried to pretend that recent special elections staying Republican is a sign of change.

 

[Conservative]

You're wrong. It's already been explained to you in detail on multiple occasions by multiple people. All you're doing is cherry-picking because you're desperate to find anything that gives the appearance of economic divergence from the trend established 10 years ago.



Notice the absence of traditional tax cuts in the CARES act.



You're being disingenuous. Obama inherited an economy that was losing 800k jobs per month. Trump inherited an economy that was gaining 200k jobs per month. But when we make a valid historical comparison:

You're lying. The Trump economy was dependent on government spending:

I think it's relevant. The Bureau of Economic Analysis thinks it's relevant. Ever single member here who isn't ignorant of economics thinks it's relevant. You're just desperate because reality came back to bite you. The Trump economy let you down. I called it right every step of the way... you did not. This is a fact.



You mean heavy GOP states electing Democrat governors? You mean the HoR going back into Democrat control? :lamo

What's even more ridiculous is you've tried to pretend that recent special elections staying Republican is a sign of change.

I don't see a response to post 551 not surprising also isn't surprising that you don't recognize the impact of the anti private sector Obama EO's and the effect of Trump's revoking those EO's when taking office.

All I see from you is partisan leftwing rhetoric from someone who believes they are so book smart that out of context retorts and arrogance trumps human nature and personal behavior of what tax cuts do for economic activity.

Logic and common sense don't resonate in the liberal mind,

How do you explain the doubling of personal consumption/Spending average during the first three years of Trump vs the average under Obama? Post 552

Waiting for you to explain 500 billion dollar average annual GDP dollar growth under Obama to 900 billion per year average growth under Trump and if you removed 2009 that number would be 600 billion for Obama and still 900 billion for Trump

Just to show you how foolish percentage change is

Reagan tripled the debt from 900 billion to 2.6 trillion or 1.7 trillion dollars, Obama increased the debt less than double to 19.9 trillion dollars from 10.6 trillion. In your world 1.7 trillion added to the debt is worse than 9.3 trillion because of percentage change. Liberals have no logic and no common sense

 

[Kushinator]

I don't see a response to post 551

Your cherry-picked copypasta has already been addressed. The response will not change no matter how many times you repeat your incoherent argument.

All I see from you is partisan leftwing rhetoric

I didn't say anything that can be even remotely considered partisan. Instead, i provided the relevant data graphically.

How do you explain the doubling of personal consumption/Spending average during the first three years of Trump vs the average under Obama? Post 552

Personal consumption expenditures didn't double at all during the first three years of the Trump administration. You're ignorantly trying to compare nominal values on a historical basis. I've already explained to you why such a line of thought is invalid. Nobody can make you learn... and you've made it a point to resist learning and take an anti-education / anti-intellectual approach. Therefore, you lose.

Waiting for you to explain 500 billion dollar average annual GDP dollar growth under Obama to 900 billion per year average growth under Trump and if you removed 2009 that number would be 600 billion for Obama and still 900 billion for Trump

Already been addressed. Your Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy has zero value.

:laughat:

Just to show you how foolish percentage change is

Reagan tripled the debt from 900 billion to 2.6 trillion or 1.7 trillion dollars, Obama increased the debt less than double to 19.9 trillion dollars from 10.6 trillion. In your world 1.7 trillion added to the debt is worse than 9.3 trillion because of percentage change. Liberals have no logic and no common sense

This is a weak strawman. I never made any mention of what's worse or better regarding debt.

However, using your logic, the Obama economy was superior to the Reagan economy because nominal GDP growth was higher every single year. But of course we all know that's nonsense. You've lost.

 

[Conservative]

You're wrong. It's already been explained to you in detail on multiple occasions by multiple people. All you're doing is cherry-picking because you're desperate to find anything that gives the appearance of economic divergence from the trend established 10 years ago.



Notice the absence of traditional tax cuts in the CARES act.



You're being disingenuous. Obama inherited an economy that was losing 800k jobs per month. Trump inherited an economy that was gaining 200k jobs per month. But when we make a valid historical comparison:

You're lying. The Trump economy was dependent on government spending:

I think it's relevant. The Bureau of Economic Analysis thinks it's relevant. Ever single member here who isn't ignorant of economics thinks it's relevant. You're just desperate because reality came back to bite you. The Trump economy let you down. I called it right every step of the way... you did not. This is a fact.



You mean heavy GOP states electing Democrat governors? You mean the HoR going back into Democrat control? :lamo

What's even more ridiculous is you've tried to pretend that recent special elections staying Republican is a sign of change.

First of all never said that Trump's GDP growth wasn't due in part to gov't spending as Gov't spending is a component of GDP, you can see the effects of the stimulus program in your line graph and the fact that once the spending was done the return was back to more normal gov't discretionary spending.

I posted the official BEA.gov data and asked you to explain it since my interpretation according to the left is wrong. You ignored the post because you cannot explain it as it destroys your narrative. Liberals just don't seem mature enough to admit when wrong. The official data destroys your arrogant opinions.

The data I posted shows Consumer spending under Obama to average 300 billion per year and under Trump 600 billion per year. That is the effect of tax cuts doing what tax cuts do, generate economic activity.

the data I posted shows GDP Growth averaging 500 billion for Obama and 900 billion for Trump, that is what pro growth economic policies do for GDP growth especially in the largest component, consumer spending/consumption. Under Obama keep ignoring the Stimulus gov't spending on 2009-2010 and the reality that in 2009 that TARP a loan that was repaid was classified as Gov't spending which it was, however the loan repayment was never credited to the deficit.

 

[Conservative]

Your cherry-picked copypasta has already been addressed. The response will not change no matter how many times you repeat your incoherent argument.



I didn't say anything that can be even remotely considered partisan. Instead, i provided the relevant data graphically.



Personal consumption expenditures didn't double at all during the first three years of the Trump administration. You're ignorantly trying to compare nominal values on a historcial basis. I've already explained to you why such a line of thought is invalid. Nobody can make you learn... and you've made it a point to resist learning and take an anti-education / anti-intellectual approach. Therefore, you lose.



Already been addressed. Your Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy has zero value.

:laughat:



This is a weak strawman. I never made any mention of what's worse or better regarding debt.

However, using your logic, the Obama economy was superior to the Reagan economy because nominal GDP growth was higher every single year. But of course we all know that's nonsense. You've lost.

That is the typical statement from you, cherry picked data, WRONG, it is official GDP data taken right from BEA.gov. Your charts support that data but you are too blinded by your own arrogance to admit it.

You have a problem with Treasury data, take it up with them but 300 billion average per year vs 600 billion average per year is double even in liberal math

 

[Kushinator]

First of all never said that Trump's GDP growth wasn't due in part to gov't spending as Gov't spending is a component of GDP, you can see the effects of the stimulus program in your line graph and the fact that once the spending was done the return was back to more normal gov't discretionary spending.

I posted the official BEA.gov data and asked you to explain it since my interpretation according to the left is wrong. You ignored the post because you cannot explain it as it destroys your narrative. Liberals just don't seem mature enough to admit when wrong. The official data destroys your arrogant opinions.

The data I posted shows Consumer spending under Obama to average 300 billion per year and under Trump 600 billion per year. That is the effect of tax cuts doing what tax cuts do, generate economic activity.

the data I posted shows GDP Growth averaging 500 billion for Obama and 900 billion for Trump, that is what pro growth economic policies do for GDP growth especially in the largest component, consumer spending/consumption. Under Obama keep ignoring the Stimulus gov't spending on 2009-2010 and the reality that in 2009 that TARP a loan that was repaid was classified as Gov't spending which it was, however the loan repayment was never credited to the deficit.

Repeating a weak argument won't change my response. You've lost.....

 

[Conservative]

Repeating a weak argument won't change my response. You've lost.....

And you have shown that liberal arrogance as usual along with proving that you are a true legend in your own mind. Facts always get in the way of the radical left which obviously you are no part of. The facts are as posted, you ignored them as usual. Will see how many radicals agree with you that I lost, the data shown doesn't support that claim

 

[Kushinator]

That is the typical statement from you, cherry picked data, WRONG, it is official GDP data taken right from BEA.gov. Your charts support that data but you are too blinded by your own arrogance to admit it.

You have a problem with Treasury data, take it up with them but 300 billion average per year vs 600 billion average per year is double even in liberal math

You are the one who struggles with data. Notice how your nominal GDP growth logic falls apart when i point out that GDP growth maxed out @ $405 billion during the Reagan administration.

 

[Kushinator]

And you have shown that liberal arrogance as usual along with proving that you are a true legend in your own mind. Facts always get in the way of the radical left which obviously you are no part of. The facts are as posted, you ignored them as usual. Will see how many radicals agree with you that I lost, the data shown doesn't support that claim

You don't know how to debate or formulate a coherent thought. This obsession you have with liberalism and Obama is borderline psychotic.

 

[Conservative]

You are the one who struggles with data. Notice how your nominal GDP growth logic falls apart when i point out that GDP growth maxed out @ $405 billion.

The American electorate, state and local governments disagree with you

Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product
[Billions of dollars]
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Revised on: April 29, 2020 - Next Release Date May 28, 2020

Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Line
1 Gross domestic product 14712.8 14448.9 14992.1 15542.6 16197 16784.9 17527.3 18224.8 18715 19519.4 20580.2 21427.7
2 Personal consumption expenditures 9976.3 9842.2 10185.8 10641.1 11006.8 11317.2 11822.8 12284.3 12748.5 13312.1 13998.7 14562.7
7 Gross private domestic investment 2477.6 1929.7 2165.5 2332.6 2621.8 2826 3044.2 3223.1 3178.7 3370.7 3628.3 3743.9
15 Net exports of goods and services -723.1 -396.5 -513.9 -579.5 -568.6 -490.8 -507.7 -519.8 -518.8 -575.3 -638.2 -631.9
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 2982 3073.5 3154.6 3148.4 3137 3132.4 3168 3237.3 3306.7 3412 3591.5 3753

 

[Conservative]

You don't know how to debate or formulate a coherent thought. This obsession you have with liberalism and Obama is borderline psychotic.

LOL, and your continue inability to acknowledge and explain the official data posted is exactly what? You have shown your inability to interpret even your own graphs properly but have the gall to claim I have an obsession with Obama? ROFLMAO, my obsession is with refuting the lies you and the radical left post about the Trump economy ignoring the actual data posted failing to explain how that data is wrong?

States get their revenue mostly for property taxes and sales taxes all boosted by consumer spending which happened with the tax cuts and always happens with people keeping more of what they earn. Obama consumer spending/consumption component of GDP averaged 300 billion a year and Trump 600 billion a year, that is the official data, that is simply liberal ass whipping.

 

[Kushinator]

The American electorate, state and local governments disagree with you

Nominal GDP growth was higher every year during the Obama administration following the recovery from the Great Recession than it was during the Reagan administration. According to you, it means the economy was stronger during the Obama administration.

Of course, we know this is false, because real GDP growth was well above anything we've witnessed in this economy since 2000.

You fail... and are not intelligent enough to understand why.

 

[Conservative]

Nominal GDP growth was higher every year during the Obama administration following the recovery from the Great Recession than it was during the Reagan administration. According to you, it means the economy was stronger during the Obama administration.

Of course, we know this is false, because real GDP growth was well above anything we've witnessed in this economy since 2000.

You fail... and are not intelligent enough to understand why.

The data I posted is factual, you ignored it, you lost

Obama average GDP Growth 500 billion per year, Trump 900 billion per year

Obama Average Consumption/Consumer spending per year 300 billion, Trump 600 billion,

Refute the data!!

 

[Kushinator]

LOL, and your continue inability to acknowledge and explain the official data posted is exactly what? You have shown your inability to interpret even your own graphs properly but have the gall to claim I have an obsession with Obama? ROFLMAO, my obsession is with refuting the lies you and the radical left post about the Trump economy ignoring the actual data posted failing to explain how that data is wrong?

States get their revenue mostly for property taxes and sales taxes all boosted by consumer spending which happened with the tax cuts and always happens with people keeping more of what they earn. Obama consumer spending/consumption component of GDP averaged 300 billion a year and Trump 600 billion a year, that is the official data, that is simply liberal ass whipping.

You don't debate. It's just one fallacy after another. The newest warrior in your army of fallacies is the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Google what it means (i've already linked it in a previous post).

Failure is all you bring to the table. And i am happy you continue to post because when independents see the garbage you spew, it drives them to Biden. Keep it up!

 

[Kushinator]

The data I posted is factual, you ignored it, you lost

I've ignored nothing. Your weak arguments have already been addressed.

Obama average GDP Growth 500 billion per year, Trump 900 billion per year

An invalid comparison. You been shown why.

 

[Conservative]

Nominal GDP growth was higher every year during the Obama administration following the recovery from the Great Recession than it was during the Reagan administration. According to you, it means the economy was stronger during the Obama administration.

Of course, we know this is false, because real GDP growth was well above anything we've witnessed in this economy since 2000.

You fail... and are not intelligent enough to understand why.

I focused on your percentage change argument showing that you cherry pick data to support your claims. Obviously the GDP dollars are going to be higher during Obama than Reagan but even adjusted for inflation the debt for Reagan pales in comparison to Obama. Your argument is percentage change, now you want to ignore the dollar growth between Obama and Trump, closer proximity in time thus less effect of inflation especially the 2016 dollar growth vs the 2017-2018-2019 dollar growth. This is known as a liberal ass whipping

 

[Dittohead not!]

You wouldn't understand it because you don't understand incentive and the private sector

So you have no answer, because the answer is Trump did not do a thing to improve the economy. He's just riding Obama's coattails and taking credit for what the Fed and Congress is doing.

 

[Conservative]

So you have no answer, because the answer is Trump did not do a thing to improve the economy. He's just riding Obama's coattails and taking credit for what the Fed and Congress is doing.

Getting tired of admitting how wrong I was about believing you are smart, stunning how loyal you are to Obama and his failed economic policies, so loyal that you refuse to address the data posted, Post 551 and 552

 

[Dittohead not!]

Getting tired of admitting how wrong I was about believing you are smart, stunning how loyal you are to Obama and his failed economic policies, so loyal that you refuse to address the data posted, Post 551 and 552

I've already addressed your data multiple times. You just don't agree, that's all.

And that's OK. You don't have to a agree with me. But, if I agreed with you, then we'd both be wrong.

 

[Conservative]

I've already addressed your data multiple times. You just don't agree, that's all.

And that's OK. You don't have to a agree with me. But, if I agreed with you, then we'd both be wrong.

No, you said I misinterpreted the data in post 551 and 552. A suggestion for find someone still living in California to explain to you that 600 billion average consumption and consumer spending component of GDP is higher than 300 billion average component and that 900 billion in average GDP growth is more than 500 billion in annual GDP growth

Seems you cannot grasp that basic math

 

[Conservative]

I've already addressed your data multiple times. You just don't agree, that's all.

And that's OK. You don't have to a agree with me. But, if I agreed with you, then we'd both be wrong.

Here is the data again that you are ignoring

Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product
[Billions of dollars]
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Revised on: April 29, 2020 - Next Release Date May 28, 2020

Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Line
1 Gross domestic product 14712.8 14448.9 14992.1 15542.6 16197 16784.9 17527.3 18224.8 18715 19519.4 20580.2 21427.7
2 Personal consumption expenditures 9976.3 9842.2 10185.8 10641.1 11006.8 11317.2 11822.8 12284.3 12748.5 13312.1 13998.7 14562.7
7 Gross private domestic investment 2477.6 1929.7 2165.5 2332.6 2621.8 2826 3044.2 3223.1 3178.7 3370.7 3628.3 3743.9
15 Net exports of goods and services -723.1 -396.5 -513.9 -579.5 -568.6 -490.8 -507.7 -519.8 -518.8 -575.3 -638.2 -631.9
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 2982 3073.5 3154.6 3148.4 3137 3132.4 3168 3237.3 3306.7 3412 3591.5 3753

GDP Obama 14.7 trillion to 18.7 trillion divided by 8=500 billion per year

Trump GDP 18.7 to 21.4 trillion = 2.7 trillion divided by 3=900 billion per year

Consumer spending/consumption

Obama 9.9 trillion to 12.7= 2.8 trillion in 8 years=350 billion per year

Trump 12.7 trillion to 14.5 trillion in 3 years=600 billion per year

 

[Conservative]

I've already addressed your data multiple times. You just don't agree, that's all.

And that's OK. You don't have to a agree with me. But, if I agreed with you, then we'd both be wrong.

Decided to compare the last three years of Obama to the first three years of Trump to reduce the effects of inflation on the numbers

Obama GDP dollar growth, 747+688+487=1922/3=639 billion average dollar growth per year. Also notice the decline in 2015-2016

Trump GDP dollar growth 804+1060+846=2710/3=903 billion per year

So tell me again how Trump's numbers are similar to Obama and how Trump continued the Obama Economy? I am sure there is someone in California that can explain these results to you

 

[Kushinator]

I focused on your percentage change argument showing that you cherry pick data to support your claims.

False... You don't know what cherry-picking means, even though that's your modus operandi.

Obviously the GDP dollars are going to be higher during Obama than Reagan

Obviously the GDP dollars are going to be higher during Trump than Obama.

but even adjusted for inflation the debt for Reagan pales in comparison to Obama.

Debt isn't adjusted for inflation, and it's statistically invalid to do so. You don't know why.

Your argument is percentage change, now you want to ignore the dollar growth between Obama and Trump

I don't want to ignore anything. Percentage change of real output is the most valid means of making a historical comparison based on the underlying strength of an economy.

Your lack of a proper economic education is on display.