Did you believe in science back in 2016?
The RCP numbers are pretty similar to what they were at this point four years ago.
And with one poll showing Biden +13, and the next poll showing Biden +3...people need to wake up and realize there's something unreliable about the polls.
I can't believe Hillary had to write an entire book entitled "What Went Wrong?"
I can answer in one word...Polling.
You apparently do not understand polling, so you certainly do not understand the difference between an opinion poll and an election poll, so follow along:
Polling is a science. It is a combination with a hard science (mathematics) and a soft science (psychology/sociology). It is well tried and proven out over the years. Let me help you understand the difference between the statement that nearly 53% of all Americans think Trump is unfit for office and your perception that the polls got it wrong in 2016.
1) there is a big difference between an election poll and an opinion poll. What I cited is an opinion; what you cited was an election poll. An election poll is an opinion poll AND a projection of turn-out. Where election polls typically fail is on projection turn-out, not the opinion side. Projection turnout attempts to predict human behavior on a specific future date. That behavior can ultimately be affected by weather, election management issues, which are outside the purview of the survey.
Numbers lie all the time: How political polls work - TechRepublic
2) Election polls also are dynamic because you are measuring as of a date certain using historic data. There are underlying shifts that aren't always caught.
3) A presidential election poll consists of 51 election polls. Polling in most states is reasonably sketchy. Trump won an electoral victory by winning a couple of states by less than 1 point. Turnout in those particular states was less than expected (see #6 below)
4) The final polling of the 2016 election had Hillary up by 3 points nationally, she won by 2 points.. pretty much spot on.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
5) Fivethirtyeight.com, the gold standard of poll aggregation, gave Hillary a 67% chance of winning. If the weatherman says there is a 33% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong? If the weatherman says there is a 10% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong?
6) Turn-out in the 2016 election was far, far less than forecast. What the Russians did in connection with their interference in the 2016 election was try to suppress turnout, particularly in the black community. That seems to have been effective and likely shifted the election in favor of Trump.
Russia targeted black voters in attempts to suppress Democrat turnout in presidential election, Senate report says | The Independent
The opinion portion of the 2016 election poll with spot on; the turnout forecast (the hard part) was the bust (see #4).
So, sorry, the fact remains (unless you have veriable data refutes my point), nearly 55% of the country believe Trump is incompetent and therefore a danger to America and Americans. He is not going to be re-elected.
