Dow set to fall 300 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, bank stocks drop

[Lord Tammerlain]

so you are CALLING a SELL today 08.14.19

i will bookmark this thread

now all you have to do is call a BUY....

timing the market is like trying to catch a falling knife....kinda hard to do

To be honest I would have called a sell a few months ago. The bond market has been inverted for a few months. Just not the 2-10 (that inverted barely a few months ago for a short period of time.)

But right now, would be a good time to lock in profits, and work to maintain capital. As for a purchase point. The stock market can easily drop down to 19500 to get to a more historical valuation. Recessions usually see profits drop, so more likely 16000. But as a safer bet, I would suggest a slow buy back at 19500


I made a similar bet with the Poster named Simba (first made on a different forum) in which I predicted the US slowdown in 2007-8 in 2006. I was early by about 8 months on to when the recession would hit. But the various reasons I said it would hit, were pretty much the reasons it hit

Now right now the US does not have a massive housing bubble, and the next recession would normally be a minor one, but the traditional means for the government/fed to fight recessions are not available to any real degree. Interest rates are already very low. Government deficits are already quite high.

 

[HumblePi]

Trumps fault when the market falls
Obamas fault when the market goes up

Truth it, this IS the fault of Trump, this is the result of his trade tariffs. Now he's trying to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates even thought the fed rate was lowered just a couple of weeks ago. Lowering the interest rates would do nothing to stop the repercussions happening because of his tariff war.

 

[gdgyva]

To be honest I would have called a sell a few months ago. The bond market has been inverted for a few months. Just not the 2-10 (that inverted barely a few months ago for a short period of time.)

But right now, would be a good time to lock in profits, and work to maintain capital. As for a purchase point. The stock market can easily drop down to 19500 to get to a more historical valuation. Recessions usually see profits drop, so more likely 16000. But as a safer bet, I would suggest a slow buy back at 19500

right now all your money is on the sideline (in this scenario)...you are no longer earning dividends or have anything invested

so you just pick the DATE when you buy back in.....you are flush with cash

are you turning it into gold? silver? staying in cash?

we are watching your every move

S&P@ 2851
NASDAQ @ 7779
DOW @ 25614

probably not absolutely latest quotes but close

 

[JustHanging]

Trumps fault when the market falls
Obamas fault when the market goes up

Nah. I suspect it's the fault of the people who know when these announcements are going to be made, and are using them to happily make out like bandits buying and selling stocks. I'm sure there are Democrats as well as Republicans involved.

 

[OlNate]

Trumps fault when the market falls
Obamas fault when the market goes up

Nah, at this point in the presidency, Trump gets credit for it all.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

right now all your money is on the sideline (in this scenario)...you are no longer earning dividends or have anything invested

so you just pick the DATE when you buy back in.....you are flush with cash

are you turning it into gold? silver? staying in cash?

we are watching your every move

S&P@ 2851
NASDAQ @ 7779
DOW @ 25614

probably not absolutely latest quotes but close

The vast majority of my savings are in bonds right now, about 10% in precious metal related stock, %10 in energy related funds

Less than 1 % is invested in Ford stock directly (lost 10% on that investment so far)

So in general my investments are where my mouth is. The DOW is overvalued, when a recession hits, it will correct further than it should. The world economy is slowing, Germany had a negative growth quarter just reported, India is slowing Korea is (Japan reported minor growth), US growth is less than 2 % and we are in a long growth cycle. A recession should be coming sooner rather than later.

Now I expect the fed to due what it can to postpone it until after the next election, but without qualitative easing it does not have much room to move

 

[jnug]

Someone makes a prediction and stocks fall. Someone else gives a hint and stocks soar.

Serious question: Why would anyone entrust their life's savings to a group of people who jump at shadows?



A lag of, on average, 22 months? LOL!! Yeah...let's freak out now, okay? Let's sell all our stocks now.

:doh :roll:

Ask DonDon that question. He is the guy that has used the stock market as his harbinger of the economy.

Since the title of this forum is DebatePolitics, there is only one question of a political nature. Will Trump's ghoulish base finally figure out that IT IS A GLOBAL ECONOMY now and there is no way to isolate yourself from the rest of the globe? The real cracks started showing up in Germany (last I looked not part of our Constitutional Republic) and spread out from there resulting in an inverted bond yield curve, the best indicator of coming recession in history.

I will repeat my oft repeated comment:
The primary issue with China is IP theft, corporate and state sponsored plus unreasonable stipulations for companies looking to manufacture in China. None of that, I REPEAT, none of that has anything to do with tariffs. The US Jobs issue is our problem. It has always been our problem and remains our problem.

All DonDon has done with his tariff wars has been to punch himself in the face repeatedly finally having to admit that Its Americans that pay tariffs since he now claims he is delaying tariffs for the "holiday buying season". Give me a break Donald.

 

[HumblePi]

The vast majority of my savings are in bonds right now, about 10% in precious metal related stock, %10 in energy related funds

Less than 1 % is invested in Ford stock directly (lost 10% on that investment so far)

So in general my investments are where my mouth is. The DOW is overvalued, when a recession hits, it will correct further than it should. The world economy is slowing, Germany had a negative growth quarter just reported, India is slowing Korea is (Japan reported minor growth), US growth is less than 2 % and we are in a long growth cycle. A recession should be coming sooner rather than later.

Now I expect the fed to due what it can to postpone it until after the next election, but without qualitative easing it does not have much room to move

The Federal Reserve really can't go any lower with interest rates, they're next to nothing right now. Another reduction in the rate, as there was just two weeks ago, would only boost confidence temporarily. If investors believe that the policy shift was the start of a longer-term easing cycle, the market may start to normalize. Banks are bleeding money and they're coming up with innovative ways to charge customers more fees. Some banks are even charging a fee if you use their own ATM more than six times a month.

 

[Bucky]

The Federal Reserve really can't go any lower with interest rates, they're next to nothing right now. Another reduction in the rate, as there was just two weeks ago, would only boost confidence temporarily. If investors believe that the policy shift was the start of a longer-term easing cycle, the market may start to normalize. Banks are bleeding money and they're coming up with innovative ways to charge customers more fees. Some banks are even charging a fee if you use their own ATM more than six times a month.

Negative rates are not a bad thing.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The Federal Reserve really can't go any lower with interest rates, they're next to nothing right now. Another reduction in the rate, as there was just two weeks ago, would only boost confidence temporarily. If investors believe that the policy shift was the start of a longer-term easing cycle, the market may start to normalize. Banks are bleeding money and they're coming up with innovative ways to charge customers more fees. Some banks are even charging a fee if you use their own ATM more than six times a month.

A Danish bank is offering a negative interest rat mortgage for 20 years


A Danish bank is offering mortgages with negative interest rates — why you shouldn’t wish for that to happen in the U.S. - MarketWatch

 

[HumblePi]

And if everyone is totally wrong about their predictions of a recession? Those who sell now lose big time over those who don't.

That's the thing...it's a gamble based on predictions.

It's a good thing our economy isn't dependent upon the success or failure of Wall Street anymore, like it was 10 or 15 years ago. Now, if Wall Street makes bad bets, the only ones who lose will be the gamblers.

Predictions aren't just guesswork on the part of economists. They use economic markers. More than 90 percent of economists said they anticipate existing tariffs to drag the U.S. GDP down by 25 basis points or more. Almost all said they expect the tariffs to increase in inflation.

Economists don't use a crystal ball or guesswork for predictions. A survey of nearly 800 top business leaders around the world listed global recession as their biggest concern for 2019. Last month, the International Monetary Fund scaled back its global growth predictions through 2020, saying "the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside" and momentum is "past its peak."

 

[Irwin Corey]

Trumps fault when the market falls
Obamas fault when the market goes up

This time around? Yep, you, very succinctly, have summed it up.

tRump hasn’t a clue how our economy works. Check out my sig., his misadministration is exactly like the childhood game of pin the tail on the donkey. Well, except when it comes to the economy, the children are more accurate and seem to know better what they are trying to do.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Life is an indication of rough times ahead. We're looking at the economy here and it's a great big thing to look at. A change in one characteristic is HIGHLY unlikely to be a an indicator of systemic change and when people look at their chosen characteristic and try to make predictions based on that we sometimes get panics.

An inverted yield curve has indicated the overwhelming majority of the last recessions we have experienced, only 1-2 exceptions based on the argument of other indicators.

To your point it does make sense to look at other indications and it may be a bit of mixed bag since the markets are predictors.

 

[HumblePi]

LOL, it's boggles my mind how people, the media especially, seem to think that the stock price of literally 30 companies is somehow a major super important thing in measuring relative strength of the overall global economy. Added, the people that are mostly responsible for the changing stock prices are about as many investment vehicles that you can count on your hands.. Sure there are single day-trading investors, and small investment firms but mostly the stock prices are traded by a very small few. And one last thing to all the geniuses out there; these investment vehicles make money when the stocks go up AND when they go down, THAT's the whole point!

/Thread.

Tim-

The Dow Jones Financials are 30 industrial companies. The NASDAQ is closer to 4,000 companies including some of those listed on the Dow. The NASDAQ is an exchange while Dow Jones is just an index. Which means you can trade your securities on NASDAQ exchange, while there is no such facility available for Dow Jones. The NASDAQ is down about 3% right now, -236.10 which is extremely low for the NASDAQ.

 

[Mycroft]

Predictions aren't just guesswork on the part of economists. They use economic markers. More than 90 percent of economists said they anticipate existing tariffs to drag the U.S. GDP down by 25 basis points or more. Almost all said they expect the tariffs to increase in inflation.

Economists don't use a crystal ball or guesswork for predictions. A survey of nearly 800 top business leaders around the world listed global recession as their biggest concern for 2019. Last month, the International Monetary Fund scaled back its global growth predictions through 2020, saying "the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside" and momentum is "past its peak."

And yet, there is VERY LITTLE inflation.

It makes you wonder...are those "economists" ****ing dumbasses? Or are they lying their asses off to support an agenda?

 

[HumblePi]

And yet, there is VERY LITTLE inflation.

It makes you wonder...are those "economists" ****ing dumbasses? Or are they lying their asses off to support an agenda?

The biggest fear is growing inflation and you're wrong about the way you think about inflation. When prices rise for energy, food, commodities, and other goods and services, the entire economy is affected. Trump's tariffs are going to increase inflation, there's no doubt about that. Inflation will always be with us, it's an economic fact of life. It is not intrinsically good or bad, but it certainly does impact the investing environment.

 

[Mycroft]

The biggest fear is growing inflation and you're wrong about the way you think about inflation. When prices rise for energy, food, commodities, and other goods and services, the entire economy is affected. Trump's tariffs are going to increase inflation, there's no doubt about that. Inflation will always be with us, it's an economic fact of life. It is not intrinsically good or bad, but it certainly does impact the investing environment.

The only problem is this: The tariffs have NOT increased inflation. It's been way below 2% during more than a year of tariffs. Hell, after the Fed ****ed up last year, not even THEY are worried about inflation anymore.

And guess what...increased numbers of jobs, increases in wages and less of a federal tax bite have more than made up for the minimal inflation that does exist.

Trump is right...the only effect on the US from the tariffs is more money in the federal treasury.

 

[HumblePi]

The only problem is this: The tariffs have NOT increased inflation. It's been way below 2% during more than a year of tariffs. Hell, after the Fed ****ed up last year, not even THEY are worried about inflation anymore.

And guess what...increased numbers of jobs, increases in wages and less of a federal tax bite have more than made up for the minimal inflation that does exist.

Trump is right...the only effect on the US from the tariffs is more money in the federal treasury.

Inflation will rise only if you buy goods that were made in China. Simply read the label on what you buy. If it says made in China, put it down. You will quickly discover that a lot of products are no longer made in the USA. But we have full employment and the U.S. is producing more goods now than ever. The conclusion of this experiment is always the discovery that the USA cannot produce enough goods for it’s own market and needs imports.

So if you are therefore forced to buy goods made in China, which will soon be under tariffs, yes this will cause inflation. That's why Trump put a 'hold' onto the proposed tariffs on things the average American purchases, as a 'Christmas gift' for all of us.

 

[Lutherf]

An inverted yield curve has indicated the overwhelming majority of the last recessions we have experienced, only 1-2 exceptions based on the argument of other indicators.

To your point it does make sense to look at other indications and it may be a bit of mixed bag since the markets are predictors.

Sure. As we saw in the article, the inversion has, historically preceded a recession....by an average of 22 months. That's kind of like saying tequila shots tend to precede pregnancy by an average of 22 months.

 

[Hypothetical]

wall street investors are a fickle bunch.

 

[Mycroft]

Inflation will rise only if you buy goods that were made in China. Simply read the label on what you buy. If it says made in China, put it down. You will quickly discover that a lot of products are no longer made in the USA. But we have full employment and the U.S. is producing more goods now than ever. The conclusion of this experiment is always the discovery that the USA cannot produce enough goods for it’s own market and needs imports.

So if you are therefore forced to buy goods made in China, which will soon be under tariffs, yes this will cause inflation. That's why Trump put a 'hold' onto the proposed tariffs on things the average American purchases, as a 'Christmas gift' for all of us.

Prices of stuff from China hasn't increased. The CPI proves this. So go ahead and buy that Chinese stuff. Inflation won't increase.

Thanks to the tactics of the Chinese government...subsidies and currency manipulation...the Chinese are, in effect, buying our inflation so that they can keep selling us stuff. That's costing THEM money...not us.

Now...regarding this latest decision by Trump, all he's doing is giving multinational corporations a little more breathing room to get out of Dodge (China). And it doesn't matter if they move to the US or to another country that is not under a tariff. China loses and American consumers benefit.

You don't have to buy Chinese stuff, but you don't have to buy US stuff either. There will always be stuff for you to buy at a price you want to pay.

 

[Mr Person]

And now watch them all turn around and say Trump isn't responsible for the economy any more. It'll be AOC's fault or something.

 

[HumblePi]

Prices of stuff from China hasn't increased. The CPI proves this. So go ahead and buy that Chinese stuff. Inflation won't increase.

Thanks to the tactics of the Chinese government...subsidies and currency manipulation...the Chinese are, in effect, buying our inflation so that they can keep selling us stuff. That's costing THEM money...not us.

Now...regarding this latest decision by Trump, all he's doing is giving multinational corporations a little more breathing room to get out of Dodge (China). And it doesn't matter if they move to the US or to another country that is not under a tariff. China loses and American consumers benefit.

You don't have to buy Chinese stuff, but you don't have to buy US stuff either. There will always be stuff for you to buy at a price you want to pay.

You haven't seen the increases because the previous tariffs were on things that you don't purchase everyday. The tariffs were on industrial components like steel. But the new tariffs are going to be on things that people purchase every day.

 

[Mycroft]

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

It'll be Obama's fault, just you wait and see.

Actually I like Obama. Lets blame Clinton. And everybody thought Reagan was the great actor. Wrong. Nobody could put on a show on like slick Willie. When he said he didn't have sex with that woman a performance of a lifetime. Right up there with make my day or tear down this wall. Oscar material.