Dow set to fall 300 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, bank stocks drop

[PIPEWRENCH]

You might as well. You people try to sell us out to Russia. Can't you at least sell us out to a nation that has the appearance of prosperity and isn't a corrupt ****hole like Russia?

Right. All our companies are packing up and going to Russia.:lamo:lamo:lamo

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

The vast majority of my savings are in bonds right now, about 10% in precious metal related stock, %10 in energy related funds

Less than 1 % is invested in Ford stock directly (lost 10% on that investment so far)

So in general my investments are where my mouth is. The DOW is overvalued, when a recession hits, it will correct further than it should. The world economy is slowing, Germany had a negative growth quarter just reported, India is slowing Korea is (Japan reported minor growth), US growth is less than 2 % and we are in a long growth cycle. A recession should be coming sooner rather than later.

Now I expect the fed to due what it can to postpone it until after the next election, but without qualitative easing it does not have much room to move

The president is just a matter of the luck of the draw. There was no question in my mind that after 2009 stocks were going to climb no matter which party puppet got elected. Now guessing that Trump would bring confidence to industry was a no brainer. But like you said it is time to reset. Everyone and their brother has jumped on the gravy train and it is time for them to lose that money to the rich and powerful.

 

[Phys251]

Right. All our companies are packing up and going to Russia.:lamo:lamo:lamo

Russian aluminum maker investing in Kentucky plant after sanctions lifted | TheHill

Pure coincidence that this is in Moscow Mitch's backyard. :roll:

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

Russian aluminum maker investing in Kentucky plant after sanctions lifted | TheHill

Pure coincidence that this is in Moscow Mitch's backyard. :roll:

That is what we want. Take their resources and manufacture products here. Let's hope this continues.:thumbs:

There could be nothing better for our economy than for the rest of the world to invest in our manufacturing jobs right here employing Americans. Well as long as the democrats don't give all the jobs to illegals, for slave labor, with no benefits, in unsafe working conditions, and the middle class has to pay more taxes to subsidize their medical, food, and housing.

 

[Phys251]

That is what we want. Take their resources and manufacture products here. Let's hope this continues.:thumbs:

There could be nothing better for our economy than for the rest of the world to invest in our manufacturing jobs right here employing Americans. Well as long as the democrats don't give all the jobs to illegals, for slave labor, with no benefits, in unsafe working conditions, and the middle class has to pay more taxes to subsidize their medical, food, and housing.

So you want to allow a country full of corruption and organized crime to set up a manufacturing plant here when there are far better ways to revive our industrial base. Got it.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

That is what we want. Take their resources and manufacture products here. Let's hope this continues.:thumbs:

There could be nothing better for our economy than for the rest of the world to invest in our manufacturing jobs right here employing Americans. Well as long as the democrats don't give all the jobs to illegals, for slave labor, with no benefits, in unsafe working conditions, and the middle class has to pay more taxes to subsidize their medical, food, and housing.

You think our country isn't corrupt.:lamo:lamo

Absolutely. You ever hear of titanium. They have lots we have almost none. We used their resources to build the spy plane that flew over their country. Plus if we are a free country why cant they invest or buy stock in our companies? You ever hear of a world market?

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

So you want to allow a country full of corruption and organized crime to set up a manufacturing plant here when there are far better ways to revive our industrial base. Got it.

Oh that is right there is no organized crime here either.:lamo:lamo:lamo

 

[Phys251]

Oh that is right there is no organized crime here either.:lamo:lamo:lamo

Oh look, it's the "he did it too" defense. :lol: Didn't think you were so soft on organized crime!

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

Oh look, it's the "he did it too" defense. :lol: Didn't think you were so soft on organized crime!

Lets not allow people from any country in the world that has corruption or organized crime to invest in this country. Well that means no investments. We have just eliminated every country in the world including our own country from investing in our businesses. Please tell me you have a better rebuttal.

 

[Phys251]

Lets not allow people from any country in the world that has corruption or organized crime to invest in this country. Well that means no investments. We have just eliminated every country in the world including our own country from investing in our businesses. Please tell me you have a better rebuttal.

You were the one who deflected away from the Russian aluminum plant in Moscow Mitch's backyard, Pipewrench. You don't need to keep reminding us that some of you people are okay with Russian infiltration.

Clearly you do not understand that organized crime is much more difficult to weed out than to draw in. Or maybe you do and you just don't care. :shrug:

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

You were the one who deflected away from the Russian aluminum plant in Moscow Mitch's backyard, Pipewrench. You don't need to keep reminding us that some of you people are okay with Russian infiltration.

Clearly you do not understand that organized crime is much more difficult to weed out than to draw in. Or maybe you do and you just don't care. :shrug:

What you are basically telling me is that there are no decent honest businessmen in Russia who wish to invest in America. Pretty prejudice attitude. I happen to have Russian neighbors who do not agree with your point of view.

 

[Phys251]

What you are basically telling me is that there are no decent honest businessmen in Russia who wish to invest in America. Pretty prejudice attitude. I happen to have Russian neighbors who do not agree with your point of view.

I'm sure there are some mafia-free businesses in Russia. Why do you want to take the chance that Rusal isn't one of them? You just wanna let Moscow Mitch let this potential Trojan horse into our backyard?

Opposition to Russian infiltration used to be a bipartisan issue, you know. :shrug:

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

I'm sure there are some mafia-free businesses in Russia. Why do you want to take the chance that Rusal isn't one of them? You just wanna let Moscow Mitch let this potential Trojan horse into our backyard?

Opposition to Russian infiltration used to be a bipartisan issue, you know. :shrug:

I thought we are free country. If there is criminal activity it should be dealt with by our judicial system not prejudice and bias hate. There is corruption and organized crime in every country in the world. I think Russian businessmen should be treated the same as people from every other country in the world. Sorry if that is a problem for you.

 

[poweRob]

Lets not allow people from any country in the world that has corruption or organized crime to invest in this country. Well that means no investments. We have just eliminated every country in the world including our own country from investing in our businesses. Please tell me you have a better rebuttal.

You forgot your laughing emojis. It's probably the most in-depth content you ever post.

 

[snakestretcher]

You think our country isn't corrupt.:lamo:lamo

Absolutely. You ever hear of titanium. They have lots we have almost none. We used their resources to build the spy plane that flew over their country. Plus if we are a free country why cant they invest or buy stock in our companies? You ever hear of a world market?

You also use their rocket engines to get you into space. That said inviting in a country already involved in corruption up to its eyeballs, right up to government level, is tantamount to an endorsement. Then again Trump is no stranger when it comes to questionable financial practise.

 

[LibDave]

Now we are seeing indications of a real problem, might go well beyond "Trump did this or Obama did that."

Inverted yield curves are usually an indication of rough times ahead.

This is not at all the case. While every inverted yield curve proceeds a recession, the opposite is not true. Less than 30% of inverted yield curves have been followed by recession. Those followed by recession are 6 to 18 months out. It isn't a very good factor in determining recessionary periods. When is it NOT a good indicator. When it is caused by increased capital inflow. Hmmmm? Pull out if you like, I'm happy with my 30% year-to-date and looking for another 30% in the next half. Especially since much of the plateau in the last couple of months is in large part due to Trump's rhetoric in regards to China and tariffs. It'll all correct and then some when things settle down. And they must. China has no choice but to make a deal. A good/fair deal is better than no deal. True they may lose the advantages they've been enjoying in the past. But they have no choice to come to a good deal as no deal is death for the rule of China.

 

[Phys251]

I thought we are free country.

Organized crime is one of the best ways to dismantle that. Maybe that's the true motive of supporters of fascism, who knows. :shrug:

If there is criminal activity it should be dealt with by our judicial system not prejudice and bias hate. There is corruption and organized crime in every country in the world. I think Russian businessmen should be treated the same as people from every other country in the world. Sorry if that is a problem for you.

I am sure that Moscow Mitch and Traitor Trump will protect us from any Russian organized crime. :roll:

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

You also use their rocket engines to get you into space. That said inviting in a country already involved in corruption up to its eyeballs, right up to government level, is tantamount to an endorsement. Then again Trump is no stranger when it comes to questionable financial practise.

Like I said name a country we trade with that is free of corruption and organized crime. If you think our government and our businesses are not up to their eyeballs in corruption and organized crime I have some unicorns to sell you.

 

[LibDave]

I've little or no idea of what goes through the mind of President of the United States of America Donald Trump. I've found it amusing to speculate from time to time, however.

Watching the gyrations of the stock market over the past few days as the China/US tariff tiff continues, it's easy to imagine President Trump viewing the Dow Industrial Average as a yo-yo and finding glee in making it go up and down.

And so it goes.

There is more to his supposed "madness" than meets the eye. Chinese has been enjoying advantages for 25 years now. First they steal our technology as a matter of standard government practice. They manipulate their currency. And they don't just impose tariffs, they absolutely limit trade.

Trade barriers normally make your industry weak and cause it to fall behind. Your industry becomes lazy and fails to update due to a lack of domestic competition. Such was the case with the Raj in India. This hasn't occurred in China because they steal the technology so there is no need to innovate, we innovate and they just steal it.

China has used absurd trade deficits to finance their expansion on the backs of the American workers for 25 years. Normally imbalances in trade are corrected for in the Foreign Currency Exchanges. In fact that is their whole purpose. When trade imbalances occur the value of that countries currency rises making it more difficult to sell goods abroad as your goods become more expensive until balance is reached. This way the value of all workers globally is what really determines the value of the pay those workers receive. Japan in the 1960's, 70's and 80's used a technique whereby they pegged our currency keeping the value of their currency below market value. Whenever the value of the $ began to drop they would run out and buy up the excess dollars (which congress was happy to oblige as it allowed congress to overspend) keeping the value of their customers currency artificially high. But there is no such thing as a free lunch. First, they are essentially buying a commodity for above its actual value. That alone should tell you it will eventually cause them issues. Second, eventually they must return those $ to circulation, otherwise if they never spend them they have no value whatsoever. Japan had a free lunch (and they too stole US technology to a lesser extent) for quite some time. But eventually they couldn't sustain this and other temporary free-lunch practices. The result was a flat growth in their GDP for throughout the 1990's. It became known as Japan's lost decade. But it has continued almost to present day and is now often referred to as Japan's lost generation.

Japan was awash in dollars and if they attempted to circulate the dollars their value would drop and the value of the dollar was propping up their entire economy. They essentially had committed economic Seppuku and had no way out. That is until China came along and decided to do the same thing. This gave Japan a market for much of their overvalued asset.

What Japan and China did was decide they would try to get a free lunch, even if only temporary. China believes they can modify the Japanese example by not only screwing the American worker through unfair currency manipulation, but they believe they can avoid the future hardship by theft of technology. What it costs them in terms of future turmoil they feel can be overcome through technology theft and the military advantage it would provide them. In other words, they unfairly out compete our industries, then when it comes time for them to suffer the economic consequences of their free lunch they just strike out militarily with the stolen tech advantage and once victory is obtained their is no need to repay.

 

[LibDave]

What Trump has done is actually genius. I didn't believe Trump could fulfill his campaign promise to bring in Trillions of these overseas dollars as they prop up many economies. If you read "The Art of the Deal" it should have been predictable. My suspicion was he wouldn't be able to get Congress to go along. But he just went around Congress and announced he was going to impose tariffs. The tariffs didn't even go into effect. But you see, companies must plan out their manufacturing years in advance. And their is no way I am going to invest in a manufacturing plant 3-6 years down the road when Trump is talking about a 50 or 100% tariff. I would be looking at bankruptcy if it materialized. So as a potential investor in China it had immediate impact. All investment ceased until it could be determined what the trade environment would be. So instead of moving to China businesses began moving to Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Phillipines, anywhere BUT China. But then Trump started talking about tariff's there and in Europe too. Demanding the Europeans pay more towards their own defense. The Europeans and Japan where given the privilege of being first to come to a fair trade deal. Much to their benefit. China was given last chance largely due to their own mistake of refusing to give up all the advantages they had negotiated and enjoyed for many years. So without even lifting a finger Trump put the pressure on them economically. They must come to a deal. A deal delayed is just as bad as no deal. Until a deal is signed investment in China will dwindle since no one is going to invest in an uncertain future. They thought if they delayed the deal Trump would announce a delay in tariffs. No such thing. Trump said, "Okay you want to delay talks that's fine. We'll still be putting the tariffs in place and will make just as much from the tariffs as we would from a deal. Take as long as you want and if necessary we may even increase them another 50%" What company is going to build American consumer products in China in that kind of uncertainty? Essentially for no money invested and little effort expended Trump grabbed Xi by the balls and won't release until they agree to play fair. They thought they could continue to cheat until the point in time they could essential conquer the world. Trump is saying, no time is up. Play nice or don't play and go back to the 12th century. Causes small blips in our markets and in the end no effect. But for China the effects are devastating and they can't afford to wait and lose the manufacturing to India or other countries eager to step in and take over Chinese production. Trump is a genius.

Meanwhile capital is flooding American markets. What better place to produce American consumer products than the US?

 

[LibDave]

Any pain the American consumer feels will be temporary. First China is crazy to drag this out. Second, it won't take long for other emerging countries to ratchet up their production to replace the Chinese vacuum. Trump is taking his time letting them feel the heat until they agree to stop the theft of trade and internet espionage.

This is why there is an inversion. And therefore, this inversion will be the 70% of inversions which do not result in recession, not the 30% of inversions which do result in recession. The market forces are very strong. And Trillions of foreign dollars are out there and likely to continue to be put into circulation for many years to come. This may well exceed the duration of the Reagan expansion. Dollars hoarded by many countries for many many years can continue to flood in at this rate for as many years as they flowed out (25 years).

 

[LibDave]

In fact we don't want it to occur over a short period. When banks are awash with capital they tend to lend it out to riskier and riskier investments. They tend to make bad investments as a result. This occurred in Latin American when under Reagan banks were awash with capital. They suddenly discovered Latin America. A big mistake as much of the capital was squandered and stolen by corrupt governments until they were no longer able to pay the money back resulting in the Savings and Loan bailouts.

 

[Mycroft]