Dow plunges 1,000 points, gives up gain for the year

[Bullseye]

Source: (CNBC) Dow plunges 1,000 points, gives up gain for the year

Geebus! One word, "Coronavirus". That says it all.

China has closed most of its factories, and with today's inter-related global supply chains, I was wondering how long can the rest of the world would get by without China's parts & sub-assemblies before there's a spillover effect. It seems today's markets are reflecting my concerns here.

I would keep an eye on the U.S. automakers. Cars are sold as whole functional units. If a part is missing, obviously the car does not sell. And today, American cars integrate parts from all over the world - including China.

Anecdotally, I was contemplating buying a Chinese audio amplifier. The manufacturer's website indicates they are now shut-down and not shipping due to the coronavirus lock-down. Ditto for several other eBay Chinese audio parts online stores I've seen. Making it worse, many online Chinese stores were shutdown for all of January due to the Chinese New Year. And now, the shut-down is extended due to the virus. And again anecdotally, I know a guy that works in international supply chain shipping logistics on the West Coast, that claims his company's business is now doing substantially less than what they normally do.

Yes, my last paragraph is anecdotal. I won't use anecdotal evidence to make an argument. In fact, I'm not making an "argument". But I will opine that I now believe our economy is going to take at least a slight ding here. Maybe only a tick or two in GDP & earnings (maybe more?). But however slight or not, I think we will be effected to some degree.

Yeah, I was just reading about this. Coronovirus is spreading far wider than expected. Travel and tourism taking big hits as are shipments to/from China and other countries with reported outbreaks. This is bad.

 

[jmotivator]

Geezus - man, those are some tough sounding postulates! I hope you're wrong.

The scary thought with Italy is there's now over 200 cases (& 6 deaths) which seem to generally be locally transmitted. They have no direct China connection. If that's not the definition of "pandemic", I don't know what is?

This virus can be transmitted by air, and can survive on surfaces for a significant amount of time... and it is highly communicable. The people in Italy would just need to have run their hand on a handrail that a sick person touched to contract the illness, and if they have no other common, easily deduced vector then that could mean they have multiple originating sources still circulating in Italy.

But yeah, I hope those stories are wrong too, because if they are both true then it is just a foregone conclusion that we will all get it eventually unless a vaccine is produced. So let's all hope that Tulane University, or some other source, comes up with something fast.

 

[vesper]

It's being reported that Chinese medical supplies have run-out in China itself, much less consider them supplying internationally.

But I believe the biggest contributory factor today was the over 200 Lombardy cases reported, where they appear to be locally transmitted.

I heard they have quarantined 10 cities in Italy shutting everything down.

 

[JasperL]

Which is why a conservative mutual fund is better; more insulated from spikes and drops like this.

That's true. Buffett placed that $1 million bet pitting the S&P 500 index against a basket of at least 5 hedge funds, and the index trounced the hedge funds, beat the 'index' and trounced every fund in that index.

Warren Buffett Just Officially Won His Million-Dollar Bet | The Motley Fool

 

[Divine_Wind]

This virus can be transmitted by air, and can survive on surfaces for a significant amount of time... and it is highly communicable. The people in Italy would just need to have run their hand on a handrail that a sick person touched to contract the illness, and if they have no other common, easily deduced vector then that could mean they have multiple originating sources still circulating in Italy.

But yeah, I hope those stories are wrong too, because if they are both true then it is just a foregone conclusion that we will all get it eventually unless a vaccine is produced. So let's all hope that Tulane University, or some other source, comes up with something fast.

Was mich nicht umbringt, macht mich stärker. --- Friedrich Nietzsche


Nothing to worry about. Look on the bright side: less traffic jams, shorter lines at Walmart and Starbucks.

 

[Divine_Wind]

That's true. Buffett placed that $1 million bet pitting the S&P 500 index against a basket of at least 5 hedge funds, and the index trounced the hedge funds, beat the 'index' and trounced every fund in that index.

Warren Buffett Just Officially Won His Million-Dollar Bet | The Motley Fool

It was the best advice my brother, a CFA, ever gave me when I asked for a no-brainer investment strategy: Dollar-cost-averaging and S&P 500

During the Recession, I doubled down as much as possible on my mutual funds; a S&P 500 IRA and my work 401k. It paid off nicely.

 

[RealityNow]

Source: (CNBC) Dow plunges 1,000 points, gives up gain for the year

Geebus! One word, "Coronavirus". That says it all.

China has closed most of its factories, and with today's inter-related global supply chains, I was wondering how long can the rest of the world would get by without China's parts & sub-assemblies before there's a spillover effect. It seems today's markets are reflecting my concerns here.

I would keep an eye on the U.S. automakers. Cars are sold as whole functional units. If a part is missing, obviously the car does not sell. And today, American cars integrate parts from all over the world - including China.

Anecdotally, I was contemplating buying a Chinese audio amplifier. The manufacturer's website indicates they are now shut-down and not shipping due to the coronavirus lock-down. Ditto for several other eBay Chinese audio parts online stores I've seen. Making it worse, many online Chinese stores were shutdown for all of January due to the Chinese New Year. And now, the shut-down is extended due to the virus. And again anecdotally, I know a guy that works in international supply chain shipping logistics on the West Coast, that claims his company's business is now doing substantially less than what they normally do.

Yes, my last paragraph is anecdotal. I won't use anecdotal evidence to make an argument. In fact, I'm not making an "argument". But I will opine that I now believe our economy is going to take at least a slight ding here. Maybe only a tick or two in GDP & earnings (maybe more?). But however slight or not, I think we will be effected to some degree.

The story this tells is beyond some who can't face reality... of just how "dependent" America is on China!!!

I still say by Aug. 2020.. people won't be able to deny the trading frenzy that has the stock ticker propped up, when it takes a nose dive.. First Quarter Market Fiction will miss its mark, and the 2nd Quarter will show the solidity of the decline.... The denier's will still chase the carrot on the stick... where realist will have moved funds into precious metals and some will shift their investment to things with more stability. some will cash out!!

If people had listened to Obama, we'd not be impacted in these ways... Because 11yrs ago... Obama presented his ideas and invested much to talk about "REBUILDING IN AMERICA AND DOING SO FROM THE BOTTOM UP... ( it's people fault for standing around blind and mute to the points, and expecting and instant miracle, without investing themselve to help built he Change Obama spoke of and supported.
Obama had a Infrastructure Programs in Places, a Clean Energy Program in Places, and Means and Ways to promote higher entrants into vocational, technical and other higher education... and he implemented a Health Plan, that was damaged by Republicans fighting to protect Big Insurance Big Hospital Based Networks, and Big Insurance...

Trump has done nothing but WEAKEN the Federal Financial Coffers... and promoted damage and divisiveness both domestically and internationally, and destroyed the Diplomatic Corp and now has insulted the once world renoun Justice Department... and he has made "Personal Bastards of the Republican Senate.

Not one Senior Living Complex has been built under any Trump Programs... Factories WILL NOT spring up in every segment of Rural America, and the Commercial Sectors of Many Inner cities continue to crumble and close, because "he has no plan, and no concept to develop one to help these people in these Rural and Inner City Areas.


At this time, No one can conclusively pin down where this virus came from and what region it was initiated, and certainly no one knows as to how far it has spread.

But, it certainly "exposed the high dependency" Americans have on China...

 

[Hatuey]

The Black Plague killed an estimated 25 million people, almost a third of the European continent's population. By 1750, less than a hundred years later, Europe's population was greater than 350 million.

Lmao, Europe had a little under half of its current population today in 1750? Sounds wrong. Let's find out:

The Population of Europe: The Demographic Transition and After | Encyclopedia.com

350 million people in Europe is in 1750 is a claim that has no basis in reality but OFG will more than likely double down on it. For all those interested in facts, and not OFG's made up tales. Europe by most estimates had 125-127 million people in 1750.

Facts and reason people, not random people saying things on the internet.




Я Баба Яга [emoji328]

 

[Chomsky]

Yeah, I was just reading about this. Coronovirus is spreading far wider than expected. Travel and tourism taking big hits as are shipments to/from China and other countries with reported outbreaks. This is bad.

As I recounted in a post above, I was consider ordering some Chinese audio gear and a few other miscellanies parts through eBay. I found the eBay audio store shutdown, as well as several parts stores shutdown - too. And now I'm wondering, do I really want to import Chinese goods into my domicile at this time? I'm thinking, maybe not.

Now I'm also getting concerned about buying products from my local Korean market too, seeing as quite a few products there are imported (from Korea). I'm not trying to be paranoid, but I'm thinking now may not be the time to be making unnecessary purchases of Chinese & Korean personal items.

If the mechanic puts a Chinese starter in my car, I can deal with it. But I think I'll pass on buying Korean kimchi or Chinese manufactured audio gear, for now!

 

[Bullseye]

As I recounted in a post above, I was consider ordering some Chinese audio gear and a few other miscellanies parts through eBay. I found the eBay audio store shutdown, as well as several parts stores shutdown - too. And now I'm thinking, do I really want to import Chinese goods into my domicile at this time? I'm thinking, maybe not.

Now I'm also getting concerned about buying products from my local Korean market too, seeing as quite a few products there are imported (from Korea). I'm not trying to be paranoid, but I'm thinking now may not be the time to be making unnecessary purchases of Chinese & Korean personal items.

If the mechanic puts a Chinese starter in my car, I can deal with it. But I think I'll pass on buying Korean kimchi or Chinese manufactured audio gear, for now!

I've seen some conflicting reports on how well the virus survives away from a host. So there's that. Also a possibility the items you wanted were in the pipeline long before the virus broke out. eBay is being cautious, which is a good plan.

One of the things I was reading this morning speculated that, given China's obsessive security - bordering on paranoia - the situation there may be far worse than they've made public. Interesting theory.

 

[Chomsky]

This virus can be transmitted by air, and can survive on surfaces for a significant amount of time... and it is highly communicable. The people in Italy would just need to have run their hand on a handrail that a sick person touched to contract the illness, and if they have no other common, easily deduced vector then that could mean they have multiple originating sources still circulating in Italy.

But yeah, I hope those stories are wrong too, because if they are both true then it is just a foregone conclusion that we will all get it eventually unless a vaccine is produced. So let's all hope that Tulane University, or some other source, comes up with something fast.

To the bolded, I'm going to leave you with a response I wrote to Bullseye - above:

As I recounted in a post above, I was consider ordering some Chinese audio gear and a few other miscellanies parts through eBay. I found the eBay audio store shutdown, as well as several parts stores shutdown - too. And now I'm wondering, do I really want to import Chinese goods into my domicile at this time? I'm thinking, maybe not.

Now I'm also getting concerned about buying products from my local Korean market too, seeing as quite a few products there are imported (from Korea). I'm not trying to be paranoid, but I'm thinking now may not be the time to be making unnecessary purchases of Chinese & Korean personal items.

If the mechanic puts a Chinese starter in my car, I can deal with it. But I think I'll pass on buying Korean kimchi or Chinese manufactured audio gear, for now!

 

[Chomsky]

Was mich nicht umbringt, macht mich stärker. --- Friedrich Nietzsche


Nothing to worry about. Look on the bright side: less traffic jams, shorter lines at Walmart and Starbucks.

My wife claims our local Korean supermarket here Stateside, was pretty darn empty the other day. Oddly enough, she claims the spartan crowd there was predominately Yank, with few of the usual dominate swarms of Korean patrons to be seen. I didn't expect that!

 

[Helix]

I hope that it recovers. I'd like to retire eventually and not die the next day.

 

[Chomsky]

I've seen some conflicting reports on how well the virus survives away from a host. So there's that. Also a possibility the items you wanted were in the pipeline long before the virus broke out. eBay is being cautious, which is a good plan.

One of the things I was reading this morning speculated that, given China's obsessive security - bordering on paranoia - the situation there may be far worse than they've made public. Interesting theory.

No, that's not what's going-on. This is not the eBay organization, but rather it is the individual online stores of the Chinese merchants.

The vendors & manufacturers I'm speaking of are located in China, and they ship directly from their China locations. It's around a 2-3 week turnaround from order, to shipping, to ending-up on a Stateside doorstep. This is not at all uncommon today in some audio segments today, whether ordered through Ebay or even Amazon. Though some manufacturers do develop a local Amazon presence if they have high-volume items and become established. Then they stock Stateside and sell via Prime, albeit with higher pricing than through their China-based product delivery infrastructure (which usually remains concurrently intact).

 

[EnigmaO01]

I think this is a contributing factor.

 

[Erod]

Pandemic is starting to feel unavoidable.

 

[EnigmaO01]

There's a key difference here, though. The fatality rate for common flu is 0.1%. The fatality rate for COVID-19 appears to be over 2%.

My math gets 1-in-a-thousand fatalities for the flu, and more than 1-in-50 for COVID-19. Now extrapolate that 2% fatality rate to 10-50M Americans that contract the flu in an average year. The numbers aren't pretty.

Are you sure? I thought it was 2.8 percent for the common flu and 2 percent for COVID-19.

 

[Drawdown]

My wife claims our local Korean supermarket here Stateside, was pretty darn empty the other day. Oddly enough, she claims the spartan crowd there was predominately Yank, with few of the usual dominate swarms of Korean patrons to be seen. I didn't expect that!

I saw something on the news last week or week before that said Asian restaurants, Chinatown's etc were taking a beating due to being shunned.

 

[OldFatGuy]

It's always hard to be sure what's sarcasm and what's just sincere nonsense....

The market does not like Bernie, but that has nothing to do with this panic.

 

[trixare4kids]

 

[JasperL]

The market does not like Bernie, but that has nothing to do with this panic.

That seems obvious. He'd have to be the nominee, which he's not, then win the election, which IMO is doubtful, before the market will seriously price in any "Bernie" effect.

Just as an aside, it's always amusing to see the market go up or down and listen to what the 'analysts' say was the reason. It's almost always made up after the fact nonsense. Even the coronovirus justification doesn't work very well today because a rational market discounting all publicly available information would, it seems to me, have long ago priced in a spread to other countries, since the disease and pandemic experts all have said that's the almost certain outcome. So it seems the virus is more likely an 'excuse' versus a 'reason.'



Anyway, who knows why the market does what it does.

 

[OldFatGuy]

Like for stereo & headphone gear.

Buy American. (Damn but the parts come from China.)

I was shocked to learn my Shure Pro Headphones and my everyday Grado Headphones had almost all their parts made in Mexico, the balance here in the US. Still the same today 8 years later.

Weirder, my Yamaha receiver, the parts made in South Korea, Japan and the US. Assembled in the Philippines. I'm so confused.

My old Dyna amp, pre-amp and tuner relegated to the bedroom, made in the USA. But the replacement tubes, from Russia.

My nephew's brand new tube integrated amp, all but the tubes made in the USA. Again the tubes from Russia and Brazil.

 

[OldFatGuy]

There's a key difference here, though. The fatality rate for common flu is 0.1%. The fatality rate for COVID-19 appears to be over 2%.

My math gets 1-in-a-thousand fatalities for the flu, and more than 1-in-50 for COVID-19. Now extrapolate that 2% fatality rate to 10-50M Americans that contract the flu in an average year. The numbers aren't pretty.

When people die, the numbers are never pretty. I want to see patient 0 in Italy, and what that might mean. Oddly the coronavirus is not attacking children, usually among the early victims, and most of those dying are suffering other serious known maladies, meaning they were hurried to the end that was usually inevitable anyway. It is for some a frightening scenario, but worthy of the panic?

 

[vesper]

China catches a cold and the world sneezes. I think when something like this virus occurs it is a good time to have a discussion about why it is important that certain things that are currently made in China should return back to the states immediately. The first items at the top of the list are medications and healthcare supplies.

When it was reported that 200 cases showing up in Lombardy Italy, it is alarming in the sense that northern Italy borders several European countries. And again not surprising they would be vulnerable due to the amount of international travel to the region. It is a hotspot for vacationers and Milan is a center of fashion. For months those in the fashion business from all over the world have been preparing for their big fashion week which was suppose to start today and was cancelled.

The markets will bounce back. But in the meantime if this virus continues to spread, I think it would be a good time for folks to get stocked up on their medications and stock the pantry. It wouldn't hurt to get some masks and disposable gloves and hand sanitizer. Keep a hand sanitizer on your desk and one in your car. Clean your keyboard often. Women should wipe down their handbags with disinfectant wipes often.

If you can't keep your hands off of hand rails or haven't found ways to open a door without using your hands or push the button on an elevator, use a grocery cart without wiping it down with sanitizer wipes and then touch your face, rub your eyes, you may want to consider disposable gloves.

 

[OldFatGuy]

Lmao, Europe had a little under half of its current population today in 1750? Sounds wrong. Let's find out:

The Population of Europe: The Demographic Transition and After | Encyclopedia.com

350 million people in Europe is in 1750 is a claim that has no basis in reality but OFG will more than likely double down on it. For all those interested in facts, and not OFG's made up tales. Europe by most estimates had 125-127 million people in 1750.

As you say, 125 mil for western Europe. Include Scandinavia, eastern Europe inclusive of the Balkans and western Turkey, Russia and we have 350 million.

Population of Western Europe