Dow plunges 1,000 points, gives up gain for the year

[Divine_Wind]

Stock market doesn't like Bernie.

Bye, bye 401k.

LOL Fear-mongering has been around forever, but it does get old.

 

[Chomsky]

Stock market doesn't like Bernie.

Bye, bye 401k.

There could be some partial Bernie effect, but the traders claim they're trading on coronavirus fears today - specifically the rapid rise in cases reported over the weekend.

 

[Chomsky]

The reason for the drop today is because of the virus has spread vastly outside of China, and now is in Italy, the fear being a likely pandemic.

Yes. And China's numbers & context doesn't seem to gel with Italy's. The Italian cases are for the most part are from local transmission - not from contact in China or with Chinese travelers. That is a big concern, meaning the virus appears to be becoming pandemic rather than epidemic.

 

[Divine_Wind]

It may retract much of its losses even today. We've seen this pattern of a crash on the morning's bad news, then a significant partial recovery later in thev day when calmer heads prevail. In fact, as of this moment the losses have receded back to 780 down, from the previous 1070 down.

But I'm not placing any bets! :2razz:

Which is why a conservative mutual fund is better; more insulated from spikes and drops like this.

 

[Common Sense 1]

Trump's stock market: yup.

Your side told us this is Obama's economy? What the hell happened? :lamo :doh eace

 

[Common Sense 1]

A good buying opportunity if you have the cash!

Buy low......

 

[Chomsky]

Bernie is a long term concern for the Stock Market, but this is 100% corona virus related. No one is panicking over Bernie yet.

Agreed in general, but I wouldn't doubt Sander's dominating win over the weekend is in the back of many traders minds. He obviously didn't cause this crash, but he might be a secondary psychological contributing factor (albeit a small very one).

 

[Chomsky]

1st bolded: you’ve never heard of a “we owe” list? Granted this is usually for small items, say floor mats or mud flaps that aren’t in stock and need to be installed after the sale......

2nd bolded: for like an electric guitar?

Like for stereo & headphone gear.

 

[Chomsky]

There is a big-time smart-money buy opportunity in here at some point. Maybe it's worth a wait for worse news. A terrible thing to say. But the biggest buy opps are when emotions run amuck.

Here's the attendant axiom:

"Buy when there's blood in the streets!"

- Baron Rothschild

 

[Chomsky]

and this is why you shouldn't use the stock market as a barometer of economic success.

Bingo! :thumbs:

 

[JasperL]

Fear. Panic. Recovery.

About 56k die annually from the flu worldwide. Coronavirus, about 70k confirmed cases, less than 2k confirmed deaths.

The Black Plague killed an estimated 25 million people, almost a third of the European continent's population. By 1750, less than a hundred years later, Europe's population was greater than 350 million.

During the next two weeks I'll be buying more equities. Vulture economics at work. We all die. A toilet seat will fall from the sky, hit me in the head. So it goes.

All we can do is smile when death comes.

I'm struggling with that reasoning because the market has already shown signs of being overvalued. Earnings multiple expansion can only take the market so much higher.... So with the virus pressuring earnings, and multiples already high, it's not clear that stocks are a bargain at this price. We're pretty heavily invested, but we're not moving the safe assets over to equities at this point.

 

[SCrider]

Agreed in general, but I wouldn't doubt Sander's dominating win over the weekend is in the back of many traders minds. He obviously didn't cause this crash, but he might be a secondary psychological contributing factor (albeit a small very one).

Maybe, but I think rational people will look at Sanders vast list of actual accomplishments as a senator and realize he is no threat to the status quo......

 

[Chomsky]

It's clear there is much more to the story in China than the Chinese are allowing.

I was reading a few things that are potentially being discovered in patients outside of China that should really scare the crap out of people.

First is that apparently the contagious stage might be twice as long as previously believed, with an infected person transferring the disease a full 4 weeks after they themselves were infected. 28 days is the extreme gestation for most Coronavirus, and with indicate that, if true, the 2 week quarantine was likely almost completely useless.

Second, they now are starting to think that, unlike most coronavirus, recovering from novel coronavirus might not grant immunity, and there are cases of re-contracting the virus after an initial diagnosis and recovery. This would mean that without Herculean efforts, a novel coronavirus outbreak in a high populated city could be self perpetuating until a cure is found.

Geezus - man, those are some tough sounding postulates! I hope you're wrong.

The scary thought with Italy is there's now over 200 cases (& 6 deaths) which seem to generally be locally transmitted. They have no direct China connection. If that's not the definition of "pandemic", I don't know what is?

 

[jamesbyoung]

Sanders' singular moment in history will be the political defeat of The Donald.

 

[Chomsky]

Fear. Panic. Recovery.

About 56k die annually from the flu worldwide. Coronavirus, about 70k confirmed cases, less than 2k confirmed deaths.

The Black Plague killed an estimated 25 million people, almost a third of the European continent's population. By 1750, less than a hundred years later, Europe's population was greater than 350 million.

During the next two weeks I'll be buying more equities. Vulture economics at work. We all die. A toilet seat will fall from the sky, hit me in the head. So it goes.

All we can do is smile when death comes.

There's a key difference here, though. The fatality rate for common flu is 0.1%. The fatality rate for COVID-19 appears to be over 2%.

My math gets 1-in-a-thousand fatalities for the flu, and more than 1-in-50 for COVID-19. Now extrapolate that 2% fatality rate to 10-50M Americans that contract the flu in an average year. The numbers aren't pretty.

 

[Divine_Wind]

Sanders' singular moment in history will be the political defeat of The Donald.

A fair point which matches that Trump's singular moment in history was the political defeat of Hillary Clinton and the resulting collapse of the Clinton political machine. For that, I will always be grateful. Now all he has to do is resign, die or lose the election for the good of the nation.

 

[Divine_Wind]

A good buying opportunity if you have the cash!

Buy low......

Agreed. I made a year's worth of pay checks during the Great Recession.

 

[JasperL]

Geezus - man, those are some tough sounding postulates! I hope you're wrong.

The scary thought with Italy is there's now over 200 cases (& 6 deaths) which seem to generally be locally transmitted. They have no direct China connection. If that's not the definition of "pandemic", I don't know what is?

Yeah, it's scary, and what worried me more than anything I've read lately was just a matter of fact comment by an expert that efforts to prevent spread of viruses like this just do not work. He wasn't criticizing that effort, but was pointing out what they do is delay rather than prevent, and hopefully with the delay we get better prepared to identify and treat.

 

[Chomsky]

Could be something to it. Charles Payne seems to think so. Guess when Warren was peaking as the frontrunner the market reacted similarly. I think a big factor is the virus spreading. This weekend it was reported it has significantly spread in S. Korea, Iran and Italy. Payne said stocks associated with a lot of medical supplies made in China are really tanking. China has stopped shipments because they are needed in their country at this time.

It's being reported that Chinese medical supplies have run-out in China itself, much less consider them supplying internationally.

But I believe the biggest contributory factor today was the over 200 Lombardy cases reported, where they appear to be locally transmitted.

 

[JasperL]

There's a key difference here, though. The fatality rate for common flu is 0.1%. The fatality rate for COVID-19 appears to be over 2%.

My math gets 1-in-a-thousand fatalities for the flu, and more than 1-in-50 for COVID-19. Now extrapolate that 2% fatality rate to 10-50M Americans that contract the flu in an average year. The numbers aren't pretty.

Yep, I was just reading about two more doctors in China who died. They were in their health prime, 29 and 42 as I recall. Those aren't the kind of people normally killed by the common flu.

 

[trixare4kids]

Your side told us this is Obama's economy? What the hell happened? :lamo :doh eace

Where's Obama? :lamo

 

[Chomsky]

Which is why a conservative mutual fund is better; more insulated from spikes and drops like this.

There's "investing", and there's "trading". Do not confuse the two! :cheers:

 

[Chomsky]

Maybe, but I think rational people will look at Sanders vast list of actual accomplishments as a senator and realize he is no threat to the status quo......

He'll have only marginal effect, if he becomes President. Congress will be reticent to pass much of his legislation, as with prior Presidents as of late. He'll move the bar a little, but we won't see revolutionary change.

 

[Chomsky]

Yep, I was just reading about two more doctors in China who died. They were in their health prime, 29 and 42 as I recall. Those aren't the kind of people normally killed by the common flu.

Like I said, if it goes pandemic with the customary annual American influenza penetration rate of 10-50M, the fatality numbers will not be pretty. Not at all. Let's keep our fingers crossed the current numbers do not hold-up, and this thing can still be caught.

 

[Roadvirus]

This will make Bill Maher happy.