CNN Poll: Trump Moves Ahead of Clinton

[Cryptic]

Interesting. Democrats were quite vocal about Gen. Allen's backing of Hillary. They're awfully quite in regards to this.

I think it took them by surprise. Following their triple combination at the convention (denouncements by military officers, Republican defections and Trump stumbling badly with Khan), the Democrats though that Trump was knocked out of the race.

Having written Trump off, the Democrats probably just anticipated a handful of military "usual suspects" endorsing Trump (one former general known to make right wing comments and another popular with evangelical Christians).

But.... Trump catches them by surprise with not 2 or 3 endorsements, but 88!

 

[Zyphlin]

Not saying otherwise. But when one poll gets a different result than both the aggregate and the other polls individually (trend,) we need to question something. Why would we not?

Except if you look at the aggregate, that result isn't that out there...

There are 5 polls within 2 points of each other in the +5 to +7 range in Clinton's favor.

There are also 4 polls within 2 points of each other in the +1 Trump to +1 Clinton range.

So yes, it's smart to question. But if you're going to question, the question is why are there a range of polls that have it an extremely tight race and a range of polls giving is decisively to Clinton. This one is no more an outlier than say the Monmouth +7 Clinton poll found in the same aggregate you linked to.

That's why you do look at an aggregate, to try and get a bigger picture. But the aggregate's results are not a legitimate reason to simply question this one poll.

 

[Reed95]

If accurate, these past two weeks would show how weak Hillary really is, and just how badly Trump was disqualifying himself.

It would imply to me there's many who don't like Hillary, but felt they must vote for her due to Trump's disqualifying behaviour.

And indeed, we often heard this anecdotally in the forums - with mine being one of the loudest voices! :mrgreen:

But sure, you are not saying that's the way it should be, are you? We all have our principles, don't we? We look at Trump's past decades, past year, or just past week? ( not to mention, even the past week was a mess ---- softening, not softening... )

 

[Chomsky]

But sure, you are not saying that's the way it should be, are you? We all have our principles, don't we? We look at Trump's past decades, past year, or just past week? ( not to mention, even the past week was a mess ---- softening, not softening... )

You lost me here ...

 

[NonoBadDog]

Everyone thinks that Trump will do well in the debates, everyone thinks he will have a Ronald Reagan moment during them. Though I haven't seen this capacity from him, he's either absent from them or rather mellow. Hillary's people are going on the offensive for the first time in the debates. They are training her to attack, attack, attack and to get under his skin. If the Benghazi hearings prove anything, it's Hillary knows how to debate, hold her ground, and act dumb. I mean she outsmarted EVERY house Republican AND for all intents and purposes, the FBI! If Hillary catches Trump in just one of his Emotional conspiracy-like tirades. I consider it game over for Trump.

Without substance that will make her look bad if he doesn't bite.

 

[NonoBadDog]

Not saying otherwise. But when one poll gets a different result than both the aggregate and the other polls individually (trend,) we need to question something. Why would we not?

I have been watching the polls. As you stated before, there hasn't been a debate yet. Pre-poll the trend in all of the polls individually have shown Clinton to have lost about 6 to 8 points in the last week.

 

[nota bene]

Hillary may be a corrupt unethical stain on politics but joking about intentionally causing a possible serious medical condition to act up is low.

Somebody, I forget who, posted yesterday the hope that Hillary would "stroke out." Terrible.

 

[NonoBadDog]

"Everyone" thinks that?

Not anyone that thinks actually thinks that. There are people that hope that but I don't think anyone that thinks would actually predict that.

 

[NonoBadDog]

Somebody, I forget who, posted yesterday the hope that Hillary would "stroke out." Terrible.

I can't stand Hillary but that would be horrible.

 

[apdst]

Everyone thinks that Trump will do well in the debates, everyone thinks he will have a Ronald Reagan moment during them. Though I haven't seen this capacity from him, he's either absent from them or rather mellow. Hillary's people are going on the offensive for the first time in the debates. They are training her to attack, attack, attack and to get under his skin. If the Benghazi hearings prove anything, it's Hillary knows how to debate, hold her ground, and act dumb. I mean she outsmarted EVERY house Republican AND for all intents and purposes, the FBI! If Hillary catches Trump in just one of his Emotional conspiracy-like tirades. I consider it game over for Trump.

When Clinton attacks, all Donald Trump has to do is start talking about emailgate. She'll meltdown.

 

[Μολὼν λαβέ]

Somebody, I forget who, posted yesterday the hope that Hillary would "stroke out." Terrible.

Maybe she'll just have a "depends" moment.

 

[danarhea]

What Liberals are ignoring is that one of their own is predicting a Trump win in November.

 

[nota bene]

Maybe she'll just have a "depends" moment.

That's not funny either.

 

[nota bene]

I can't stand Hillary but that would be horrible.

Thinking it is pretty bad. So is saying it publicly. I mean, what kind of person owns such animus?

 

[Chillfolks]

Thinking it is pretty bad. So is saying it publicly. I mean, what kind of person owns such animus?

It's the dark side of personal politics. It's nothing new either.

There are folks who get offended when a joke about Hillary and her health, and were the same folks holding a side laughing at jokes about Bush drinking again and making movies about his assassination.


I will never vote for Hillary and can't grasp why anyone would of supported her for any office. But I wish her a long happy quiet life away from politics.

 

[nota bene]

Well said, and so do I.

 

[Absentglare]

Independents lean toward Trump ? The unjustified Hillary hatred is truly infections.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Presidential poll: Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton - CNN.com





I pretty much knew it would be close. however I've been saying all along the debates will be the deciding factor. whoever comes out of those with the momentum will win the election. we shall see.

Democrats made their bed, they can lie in it. I could easily see Trump winning. It wouldn't be difficult.

 

[NonoBadDog]

Thinking it is pretty bad. So is saying it publicly. I mean, what kind of person owns such animus?

All kinds of people. We have a whole wad of them in the forum on both sides.

 

[Fishking]

Not sure I really buy the poll, the aggregate across more than one poll shows Hillary is somewhere in the +3 range. Granted the gap has fallen from from a week or so back where she was +6 or more, but there is still much more to go through before we have a indication that Trump can stay out front of Hillary over a long term.

Namely... the debates (and it is not going to be pretty.)

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

I've been saying for a long time that Trump could only go up while Hillary has already peaked. Trump has said so much stupid stuff, and the media has been nonstop insulting of him, or outright lying about him, that there's almost no way to go down. It's the law of diminishing returns. Hillary, on the other hand, just keeps looking worse the longer anyone focuses on her. She's only been floated due to everyone paying attention to Trump and ignoring her.

That aside, I still think she wins.

 

[Fishking]

Presidential poll: Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton - CNN.com

I pretty much knew it would be close. however I've been saying all along the debates will be the deciding factor. whoever comes out of those with the momentum will win the election. we shall see.

Sometimes I think news agencies run crap polls to make it look like a close race for the purpose of trying to get the various candidates and support groups to spend money on advertisements, which benefit them. This is the cash-cow season for cable news. It's one area where no one seems to want to talk about campaign finance reform.

 

[NonoBadDog]

Hillary is below 3% in the four way RCP poll average right now. It is Trump's turn to try to lose now.

 

[NonoBadDog]

Sometimes I think news agencies run crap polls to make it look like a close race for the purpose of trying to get the various candidates and support groups to spend money on advertisements, which benefit them. This is the cash-cow season for cable news. It's one area where no one seems to want to talk about campaign finance reform.

Would you believe them if they did? I wouldn't. The Democrats holler about it constantly while supporting Hillary. The Koch brothers have all but pulled out. They can't stand Trump. Hillary bagged 143 million in one night from the elite last week. They hollered when Trump put up 50 mil of his own money and are still whining about it.

 

[upsideguy]

Matthew 8:26 KJV

Worry not, as I do not. I am not afraid. Objects in the mirror are further than they appear. Trump will have his head handed to him in November. There just are not enough uneducated, angry white men to carry the day.

Hillary is below 3% in the four way RCP poll average right now. It is Trump's turn to try to lose now.

Not really.

 

[Gaztopian]

America should be ashamed of itself.