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A Soybean Surge Makes Trump’s Trade War Look Deceptively Good

cuban smokes said:
yes, I know about all that; Trump supporters however do not keep up with 'ag' like I keep up with 'ag' ..............
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Oh they do, and they are. You will see shifting voter patterns in farm country this year, and a tsunami in 2020.
 
Linc said:
Oh they do, and they are. You will see shifting voter patterns in farm country this year, and a tsunami in 2020.
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you know what it takes in America to get folks to actually give a **** @ the ballot box?

they have to have their asses handed to them; Americans are dumber than ****ing dirt ...........

they finally realize they got ****ed long after the cum has dried ...........
 
Linc said:
Oh they do, and they are. You will see shifting voter patterns in farm country this year, and a tsunami in 2020.
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I hope you are right, but I'm not optimistic. Stupidity has real staying power.
 
Hedgology said:
It's not impossible for other nations to take advantage of the generosity of the United States, in more ways than one.
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I'm not questioning what is theoretically possible. I'm pointing out that the belief that other nations have imposed "horrible" tariffs against the U.S. is entirely in Swampy's imagination and has no basis in reality.
 
JohnfrmClevelan said:
Trade wars don't put more people to work, though. Even when you import more than you export, you are still producing more (thus employing more workers) than you would otherwise.
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“Trade war” is hyperbole started by antitrumpers
 
itsforthekids said:
“Trade war” is hyperbole started by antitrumpers
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Nope it is a real term describing what trump is doing. You may believe he is simply renegotiating trade deals but as it stands there by are no real negotiations occuring unless you consider everyone slapping slapping tarrifs on each other negotiating.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
The super thing is that we will know in a very short time what reality says....so there in no need to guess.

You have been disappointing lately.
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(grin!)
I guess you'll have to look elsewhere.
 
itsforthekids said:
The realist!
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Oh he's a realist alright. I think you meant 'realest' though, as in the realest American.
If that's how you see him, well, bless your heart. Even his supporters know he's all about Trump first and hope that what he sees as good for Trump will also be good for America. Trouble is, he's already sacrificing 'what's good for America' for what's good for his ratings. And it'll get worse. You watch. Trump will reward your loyalty with lies and you'll thank him for it, because you drank the Kool-Aid.
 
MTAtech said:
I'm not questioning what is theoretically possible. I'm pointing out that the belief that other nations have imposed "horrible" tariffs against the U.S. is entirely in Swampy's imagination and has no basis in reality.
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What do you call it when the U.S. has free trade with China, and not the other way around?
 
Grand Mal said:
Oh he's a realist alright. I think you meant 'realest' though, as in the realest American.
If that's how you see him, well, bless your heart. Even his supporters know he's all about Trump first and hope that what he sees as good for Trump will also be good for America. Trouble is, he's already sacrificing 'what's good for America' for what's good for his ratings. And it'll get worse. You watch. Trump will reward your loyalty with lies and you'll thank him for it, because you drank the Kool-Aid.
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Lol...
 
Hedgology said:
What do you call it when the U.S. has free trade with China, and not the other way around?
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That would be something if there really wasn't free trade. In fact, China is striking a number of free-trade agreements with many countries.

Now, to be clear: When it comes to the global economic order, China is in fact a bad citizen. In particular, it plays fast and loose on intellectual property, in effect ripping off technologies and ideas developed elsewhere. It also subsidizes some industries, including steel, contributing to world excess capacity. It also subsidizes solar panels. Of course, we used to have American programs to help our solar industry before this administration.

In any case, Trump's focus is on the U.S. trade deficit with China, which he keeps saying is $500 billion but really is $375 billion. What’s wrong with this fixation?

First of all, much of that big deficit is a statistical illusion. China is, as some put it, the Great Assembler: Many Chinese exports are actually put together from parts produced elsewhere, especially South Korea and Japan. The classic example is the iPhone, which is “made in China” but in which Chinese labor and capital account for only a few percent of the final price. So, imposing tariffs on China really hurt Japan and S. Korea. Second, it also means America has much less trade leverage over China than Trump imagines. Third, while Trump can bully and push around immigrants seeking asylum, because they have no power, China has a lot of power to hurt America, its industries and American workers with retaliatory tariffs -- as it is doing.

You know what would have really solved many of the problems Trump complains about? The Trans-Pacific Partnership, that he cancelled early on.
 
The smart farmers know that this had to be done and will benefit them in the end.

China will pay the Tariffs......they need the food.

We have the food.

We are in the catbird seat on this.
 
Vox said:
The smart farmers know that this had to be done and will benefit them in the end.

China will pay the Tariffs......they need the food.

We have the food.

We are in the catbird seat on this.
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Let's remember what John Maynard Keynes said about the long-run (in the end). "In the long run, we're all dead."

But on China's soybean demand:
American farmers could still take a sizable hit in the long run if China’s tariffs prompt Brazil and other suppliers to expand their soy acreage, or if China bankrolls cultivation outside its borders. Many people from Heilongjiang are already growing soybeans across the Amur River in the Russian Far East, where land is cheap and plentiful.
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China’s hunger for soybeans could deepen ties further. In a recent interview with the Chinese state news agency Xinhua, the head of a Russian soybean association said that the group was looking to team up with Chinese companies, and had set up an office in Heilongjiang’s provincial capital, Harbin, to attract investment.
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So, Trump's action helps Russia. Who wudda thought?
 
MTAtech said:
Let's remember what John Maynard Keynes said about the long-run (in the end). "In the long run, we're all dead."

But on China's soybean demand:

So, Trump's action helps Russia. Who wudda thought?
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B.S.

The demand is such that nobody can fill it.

And that demand is increasing faster that soybeans can be produced.
 
MTAtech said:
That would be something if there really wasn't free trade. In fact, China is striking a number of free-trade agreements with many countries.
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[/quote]

China has majority of Free Trade Agreements with nations that are not they're largest trading partners, as your own source points out. You're also confused with a few things: it's only free trade so long as one country has open ports. Put simply, as long as we have Free Trade with China, it's still Free Trade. The problem that everyone is pointing out is that Free Trade is one-sided. The largest negative trade measures China has implemented affect the United States and the European Union.

The United States has free trade with China, China doesn't have free trade with the United States.

In any case, Trump's focus is on the U.S. trade deficit with China, which he keeps saying is $500 billion but really is $375 billion. What’s wrong with this fixation?

First of all, much of that big deficit is a statistical illusion. China is, as some put it, the Great Assembler: Many Chinese exports are actually put together from parts produced elsewhere, especially South Korea and Japan. The classic example is the iPhone, which is “made in China” but in which Chinese labor and capital account for only a few percent of the final price. So, imposing tariffs on China really hurt Japan and S. Korea. Second, it also means America has much less trade leverage over China than Trump imagines. Third, while Trump can bully and push around immigrants seeking asylum, because they have no power, China has a lot of power to hurt America, its industries and American workers with retaliatory tariffs -- as it is doing.
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All of this is irrelevant because the balance of trade is only concerned about goods purchased by Americans from China, and vice-versa. Intermediate goods are not relevant when we consider Trump's fixation with the BOP with China.

You know what would have really solved many of the problems Trump complains about? The Trans-Pacific Partnership, that he cancelled early on.
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How does it solve many of the problems...
 
Conservative said:
yes we know your predictions and lack of understanding of our economic activity and components. We know you are a big govt. liberal who ignores the value of people keeping more of what they earn. We know how much you truly care about the plight of the American taxpayers due to your vehement attacks on people keeping more of what they earn and all the predictions that the suspected trade war will hurt this country. The problem with you and the left is you have no understanding as to the components of GDP and the percentage each contribute with all predictions being just that a PREDICTION none of which matter.

The American people see the benefits of the Trump economic policies in their paychecks and the affects of America First in leveling the playing field against foreign countries. The trade gap is due to manipulation by foreign countries and we finally have a President addressing that manipulation. Isn't that what a President should do?

I have no idea what you people want since a stronger economic growth, job creation, better pay, more spendable income certainly don't appear to be on your radar. Tell us exactly what you want Trump to do or what you expect the Democrats to do if they retake Congress?
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Yeah...why do we subsidize corn?
 
Credit will be more difficult for next year, with interest rates scheduled to increase at least a quarter tick 6 more times through next year. Looking into jumping in from harvest to harvest to help out with loans.

As well, there’s an ammonia plant I’m looking at, to decrease that margin and lock in more scarce ammonia, trying to stay away from more expensive liquid nitrogen. Don’t know about availability of corn seed out of state yet, where it’s 1/4 cheaper.
 
MTAtech said:
Let's remember what John Maynard Keynes said about the long-run (in the end). "In the long run, we're all dead."
But on China's soybean demand:
So, Trump's action helps Russia. Who wudda thought?
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Latest summary, ‘smart family farmers’ coming of age whose families don’t want to farm are selling out to the big bidder boys.

ZERO ‘smart farmers’ are willing to fall on trump’s sword and go bankrupt with these incredibly stupid unforced errors, as gop con farmers keep telling me.
 
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