‘Biden bump is real’: president gains on Trump in six battleground states

[Winston]

‘Biden bump is real’: president gains on Trump in six battleground states | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

Bide leads Trump in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, new poll shows

amp.theguardian.com

Now, who knows why this is happening. All we can do is speculate. And I will do just that right now.

1. State of the Union was a big hit. It took the fight directly to Trump and the Republicans and it exposed them for being childish partisans playing games.

2. Good economic conditions are coming to fruitions. The perception is finally catching up

3. The image of Trump as a successful businessman has come crashing down. He lies about his fortune. Lies about his assets. And he is a fraud. The public is seeing that in real time.

 

[washunut]

‘Biden bump is real’: president gains on Trump in six battleground states | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

Bide leads Trump in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, new poll shows

amp.theguardian.com

Now, who knows why this is happening. All we can do is speculate. And I will do just that right now.

1. State of the Union was a big hit. It took the fight directly to Trump and the Republicans and it exposed them for being childish partisans playing games.

2. Good economic conditions are coming to fruitions. The perception is finally catching up

3. The image of Trump as a successful businessman has come crashing down. He lies about his fortune. Lies about his assets. And he is a fraud. The public is seeing that in real time.

The race was always going to tighten. You left off the most important reason in this poll. Tossing Israel to the curb.

 

[Winston]

The race was always going to tighten. You left off the most important reason in this poll. Tossing Israel to the curb.

Yes! That seems to be his only path forward. To the extent he would lose some moderates, his base is more important

 

[washunut]

Yes! That seems to be his only path forward. To the extent he would lose some moderates, his base is more important

As I said earlier time will tell. What seems to be key in recent presidential elections is turnout and impact of 3rd parties. That is why I find polls to be not meaningful this early in the race.

 

[Winston]

As I said earlier time will tell. What seems to be key in recent presidential elections is turnout and impact of 3rd parties. That is why I find polls to be not meaningful this early in the race.

Yeah, as I recall the libertarian vote seemed high in 2020.

I don’t think you can automatically just give the libertarian to Republicans. But, a good chunk of them maybe are casting protest votes.

I was a 3rd party voter until Trump. I voted Green every year. Never planned on voting for the Dems. So, there are people that just vote 3rd party

 

[WillyPete]

Who knows, it certainly seems like it's becoming Biden's race to lose. I think women's issues are the main driver, the conservatives have never even tried to soften that blow.

It's been a string of bad news for Trump lately, and whatever people might say, they know that rich people don't get their money yoinked by the courts for no good reason.

 

[gbg3]

Biden's had some better news in two of the swing states, WI and PA. These are the two where he's been just about tied with Trump for a while. In WI, a recent Bloomberg poll has Biden up by 1. That's certainly not great but in comparison to the last time that same poll was released (in Feb), it's a big improvement for Biden. In Feb, that same poll had Trump up by 4.

Then, Biden got recent good news in PA also. A recent Susquehanna poll has Biden up over Trump by 5. That one sounds really good but that one is actually a bit of a drop since their last poll a little over a month earlier. In that earlier Susquehanna poll, Biden was up by 8.

But the most recent Bloomberg dump of state polls almost all showed improvement for Biden vs Trump compared to previous state release from the same pollster. GA was an exception in that the recent Bloomberg polling for Trump over Biden actually improved by just a bit.

Trump still leads in every single swing state (per their average) but his lead is extremely close to an average tie in PA and WI.

 

[ataraxia]

RFK Jr is still a big wild card that I suspect could really hurt Biden.

 

[gbg3]

Biden had almost two full months where he never led in a single swing state poll. In that time period, there were a few ties but never a Biden lead. Now he has broken that string with a few leads in a few swing state polls. So, that's certainly improvement for him.

 

[washunut]

Yeah, as I recall the libertarian vote seemed high in 2020.

I don’t think you can automatically just give the libertarian to Republicans. But, a good chunk of them maybe are casting protest votes.

I was a 3rd party voter until Trump. I voted Green every year. Never planned on voting for the Dems. So, there are people that just vote 3rd party

Same here. Not sure what I will do this year. Long way to go.

 

[gbg3]

The race was always going to tighten. You left off the most important reason in this poll. Tossing Israel to the curb.

I agree with the first sentence. And I agree he has done what you said in the last sentence. We'll see how that ultimately goes for him.

 

[CaughtInThe]

that even ONE American would vote for a guy who tried to overturn our election is baffling.

hate is a powerful drug.

 

[Greenbeard]

RFK Jr is still a big wild card that I suspect could really hurt Biden.

He's an anti-establishment, anti-vax nut so his appeal is to the kinds of minds drawn to Trump.

Certainly the Trump team seems to realize this.

 

[gbg3]

Yes! That seems to be his only path forward. To the extent he would lose some moderates, his base is more important

Maybe. That seems to be the political calculation Biden is making.

 

[ataraxia]

He's an anti-establishment, anti-vax nut so his appeal is to the kinds of minds drawn to Trump.

Certainly the Trump team seems to realize this.

I am not so sure about that.

"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential campaign can’t win, but it could swing the presidency to former President Donald Trump. Kennedy’s selection Tuesday of Nicole Shanahan, a Democratic donor from Northern California, as his running mate is the final point of proof that the RFK campaign is a heat-seeking missile aimed at Biden.

Some people, a little slow on the uptake perhaps, persist in the fantasy that Kennedy, as a vaccine critic and conspiracy promoter, would draw from Trump. In his choice of running mates, RFK Jr. has ended that debate."

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www.cnn.com

 

[Cardinal]

Consider the following question: which candidate stands to lose more as a result of new information about themselves between now and November?

Trump does worse when he’s in the news. And now that the election cycle is in full swing, he’s always in the news and nothing about him is good.

 

[TheParser]

No surprise!

Of course, President Biden will win in November.

The Dems have done an excellent job in demonizing The Donald (not to mention his own big mouth).

As soon as the election is finished (it will be another "one of the cleanest elections in American history"), Dem bigwigs will be asking "Donald who?"

 

[bubbabgone]

As I said earlier time will tell. What seems to be key in recent presidential elections is turnout and impact of 3rd parties. That is why I find polls to be not meaningful this early in the race.

3rd party and turnout are obviously and always critical factors.
BUT ... don't forget the advantage Dems have in the urban areas (which is damn near all of them) where they control how their elections are run and who runs them.

 

[Ginger Ale]

It's the religious laws, and watching them come to fruition after Roe, and the realization that a Christian Nationalist government will suck balls.

 

[j brown's body]

Trump's last rally was a disaster and now they appear to be trying to keep him under wraps.

Will he get out from under it and continue to publicly unravel between now and election day when voters are paying closer attention?

 

[Peacenik]

‘Biden bump is real’: president gains on Trump in six battleground states | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

Bide leads Trump in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, new poll shows

amp.theguardian.com

Now, who knows why this is happening. All we can do is speculate. And I will do just that right now.

1. State of the Union was a big hit. It took the fight directly to Trump and the Republicans and it exposed them for being childish partisans playing games.

2. Good economic conditions are coming to fruitions. The perception is finally catching up

3. The image of Trump as a successful businessman has come crashing down. He lies about his fortune. Lies about his assets. And he is a fraud. The public is seeing that in real time.

It has been so long since reality was popular. Good to see it creeping back in.

 

[Peacenik]

Trump's last rally was a disaster and now they appear to be trying to keep him under wraps.

Will he get out from under it and continue to publicly unravel between now and election day when voters are paying closer attention?

Hard to see much difference between a Donald rally and the Jerry Springer show.

If people had any idea how petty / shallow / ridiculous they look they would be ashamed.

 

[roguenuke]

Yes! That seems to be his only path forward. To the extent he would lose some moderates, his base is more important

I doubt he'd lose any significant number of moderates to Trump specifically though. And there's a good chance that he would easily make up for that from the stronger base, supporters of a 2 state solution, Palestinian Americans who know that Trump and the right is not going to be good for them.

 

[roguenuke]

RFK Jr is still a big wild card that I suspect could really hurt Biden.

I think RFK Jr is more likely to hurt Trump than Biden, as many more on the right like RFK Jr than the left. Those on the left that prefer him likely are so progressive they wouldn't have voted for Biden even if RFK Jr wasn't on the ballot (and I think he might not be in some states, if I remember correctly) or are basing their support off of name alone, something that would get diminished to some degree in later campaigning if he makes it onto ballots.

 

[Luckyone]

3rd party and turnout are obviously and always critical factors.
BUT ... don't forget the advantage Dems have in the urban areas (which is damn near all of them) where they control how their elections are run and who runs them.