Who will flip first, Manafort or Flynn?

[independentusa]

Both are feeling the heat from Mueller's investigation. Both are facing possible jail time and even huge fines. Manafort could actually lose all of the money he received from all of those foreign governments and banks. That could add up to millions. I think it is close to the time that deals will be made and Flynn has already shown interest and as his lawyer said, has a story to tell. So who will be first? And will Trump stop the whole thing by pardoning both of them before they can spill the beans. If so, will the GOP do anything?

 

[Winston]

Both are feeling the heat from Mueller's investigation. Both are facing possible jail time and even huge fines. Manafort could actually lose all of the money he received from all of those foreign governments and banks. That could add up to millions. I think it is close to the time that deals will be made and Flynn has already shown interest and as his lawyer said, has a story to tell. So who will be first? And will Trump stop the whole thing by pardoning both of them before they can spill the beans. If so, will the GOP do anything?

Trump has some pillar of unwavering admiration and loyalty for Flynn, so, I do believe if Flynn is going to be prosecuted, Trump will pardon him. Not sure how that works if the prosecutors offer Flynn a lesser charge in exchange for the goods on the Trumps.

Or, can a person only be pardoned post-sentencing?

 

[PLizzy]

Again, nobody knows what is exactly being investigated right now.

It appears that this probe has grown from simple 'collusion' to investigating foreign bribery and fraud - hence Mueller hiring experts in that. I think that's why Flynn's work in Turkey is being examined closely. He and Manafort have taken millions from various foreign nations (Turkey, Ukraine, Russia) and it appears they were not registering as foreign lobbyists in order help conceal illicit payments, and this is definitely fraud. Kushner is also coming under scrutiny for his families solicitation of investors from China in exchange for EB-1 visas, as well as to whether his discussions with VEB were bribery for family business.

The key is to whether Mueller is taking over the old Russian money laundering probe out of the NY attorney office. If he isn't, Trump will walk away from this, but if Mueller is then he has something to worry about.

 

[Parrish]

Has anyone ever wondered why Manafort was hired in the first place?

 

[Linc]

Trump has some pillar of unwavering admiration and loyalty for Flynn, so, I do believe if Flynn is going to be prosecuted, Trump will pardon him. Not sure how that works if the prosecutors offer Flynn a lesser charge in exchange for the goods on the Trumps. Or, can a person only be pardoned post-sentencing?

Any pardons from trump would come after the 2018 or even the 2020 elections if he had a brain.

Pardoning Nixon was a huge factor in Ford losing to Carter. So was Reagan pouting after the convention .

 

[Winston]

Any pardons from trump would come after the 2018 or even the 2020 elections if he had a brain.

Pardoning Nixon was a huge factor in Ford losing to Carter. So was Reagan pouting after the convention .

The investigation will hopefully be over by next year, but, I have a feeling they are going to drag it out until 2020.

Also Trump doesn't know about history or care to learn it.

 

[Cardinal]

Trump has some pillar of unwavering admiration and loyalty for Flynn, so, I do believe if Flynn is going to be prosecuted, Trump will pardon him. Not sure how that works if the prosecutors offer Flynn a lesser charge in exchange for the goods on the Trumps.

Or, can a person only be pardoned post-sentencing?

I could be going out on a limb here, but I believe someone can be pardoned even in the course of an investigation, though that would specifically necessitate accepting the guilty verdict that comes with it. Acceptance of a pardon requires acceptance of guilt.

 

[Winston]

I could be going out on a limb here, but I believe someone can be pardoned even in the course of an investigation, though that would specifically necessitate accepting the guilty verdict that comes with it. Acceptance of a pardon requires acceptance of the guilt.

Yep, I knew that part. Accepting a pardon, means you admit you did it, and you are scared as hell of going before a judge.

Nixon was never prosecuted was he?

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

Flynn might be willing to go to jail because of some code of loyalty. Military men don't break easily.

Manafort would flip to save himself. If the search warrant found something in his home he would snitch on Trump to save himself.

Keep in mind that to get a search warrant of Manafort you have to bring evidence of a possible crime to a judge. Manafort is definitely in criminal trouble.

 

[Linc]

The investigation will hopefully be over by next year, but, I have a feeling they are going to drag it out until 2020. Also Trump doesn't know about history or care to learn it.

Besides all of trump's self-inflicted wounds, he's now in a pissing contest with the Senate Majority Leader McConnell who would eventually sit over the trial of trump if Ryan is scared enough about losing his seat in 2020 .

 

[Winston]

Besides all of trump's self-inflicted wounds, he's now in a pissing contest with the Senate Majority Leader McConnell who would eventually sit over the trial of trump if Ryan us scared enough about losing his seat in 2020 .

Doesn't Ryan win with like 10 points.. or, you mean he may lose his primary?

Also Trump is bleeding support. Even from Republicans.

 

[Grand Mal]

Trump has some pillar of unwavering admiration and loyalty for Flynn, so, I do believe if Flynn is going to be prosecuted, Trump will pardon him. Not sure how that works if the prosecutors offer Flynn a lesser charge in exchange for the goods on the Trumps.

Or, can a person only be pardoned post-sentencing?

I suspect a pardon would mean he can't plead the fifth. He'd be required to answer any and all questions honestly.

 

[Linc]

Doesn't Ryan win with like 10 points.. or, you mean he may lose his primary?

Also Trump is bleeding support. Even from Republicans.

Ryan won by 35 points last time. It will take 2 elections and a POTUS election year for a DEM to beat him.

Only 2 Speakers have ever lost, the most recent Foley of WA in 1994, a midterm blowback election on Clinton, setting the stage for the 2010 blowout. Foley won by 30 or so in 1990, it was halved in 1992, and shocked in 1994.

DEMs can cloze in a midterm and win in POTUS years. GOPs the opposite, cloze in POTUS years and win in midterms .

 

[Winston]

I suspect a pardon would mean he can't plead the fifth. He'd be required to answer any and all questions honestly.

Decided to do a little googling.. it reveals...

n the United States, the pardon power for federal crimes is granted to the President of the United States under Article II, Section 2 of the United States Constitution which states that the President "shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment". The U.S. Supreme Court has interpreted this language to include the power to grant pardons, conditional pardons, commutations of sentence, conditional commutations of sentence, remissions of fines and forfeitures, respites, and amnesties.[23]

All federal pardon petitions are addressed to the President, who grants or denies the request. Typically, applications for pardons are referred for review and non-binding recommendation by the Office of the Pardon Attorney, an official of the United States Department of Justice. The percentage of pardons and reprieves granted varies from administration to administration; however, fewer pardons have been granted since World War II.[24]

The pardon power has been controversial from the enactment of the United States Constitution.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon#United_States

 

[Grand Mal]

Decided to do a little googling.. it reveals...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon#United_States

Yeah. What I meant was (and I could be 'way off base) was that the fifth amendment was intended to protect you from having to incriminate yourself. If you've already been pardoned, or received immunity, you're no longer in jeopardy of self-incrimination so you can't plead the fifth. You have to answer any questions.
That sound right?

 

[Winston]

Yeah. What I meant was (and I could be 'way off base) was that the fifth amendment was intended to protect you from having to incriminate yourself. If you've already been pardoned, or received immunity, you're no longer in jeopardy of self-incrimination so you can't plead the fifth. You have to answer any questions.
That sound right?

You mean if Congress subpoenas Flynn, after Trump pardons him, he would legally be obligated to answer any probing questions about Trump and Trump campaign, since he has already accepted guilt. That is a forde that Trump has likely not traveled but, perhaps his attorneys have.

 

[independentusa]

Well Flynn has already said he would flip if granted immunity. From what I heard on TV, the raid on Manafort's house found info that he had gotten 17 million in cash from a wealthy Ukraine who has ties to Russia. Money Manafort never reported to the IRS, which by itself could land him in jail for 5 years. SO the real question is the one I asked, who will flip first.