What everyone was saying in 2004

[Harshaw]

Is nearly a mirror-perfect flip of what's being said today.

To wit, this liberal blogger sounds very, very much like many conservatives today:

Political Strategy - Politics, Strategies, Tactics, News and Opinion

In which he analyzes all the reasons why Kerry was going to win, whatever the polls said. Oct 20, 2004. He gives a rather well-documented case for a Kerry victory, which if you changed the names would fit neatly into today.

Here's a little bit of it, but you need to read the whole thing.

Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November

1) Bush must lead by 4%: Professor Alan of the Emerging Democratic Majority shows that Bush must go into November 2 with an average of at least a 4% lead in such polls if he is to have any sort of hope for four more years.

2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon: Traditional polling relies almost exclusively on landline telephone. Unfortunately, according to Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, as much as 18% of the electorate don't have land lines and instead rely exclusively on cell phones. The Hill gives us a little something about this demographic:

In-Stat.MDR, a wireless market-research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz., conducted a survey of wireless users in February of this year. Of the 970 people questioned, 14.4 percent were cell-phone-only users, the majority of whom were single Americans between the ages of 18 and 24, living in mostly urban areas.

Anyone care to venture a guess as to how this demographic overwhelmingly votes?

Yup. According to Newsweek (10/16/04), Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9 points.

3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster: Zogby, which touts the most accurate polls for the last two presidential elections, calls for a very strong Kerry victory. He has referred to the race as "Kerry's to lose."

In 2000, Zogby was one of several pollsters that was only two cumulative percentage points off from the actual, but it was the only one in that group to actually choose Gore as the winner (which we all know he was).

In 1996, Zogby hit the nail right on the head. Sure, everyone predicted a Clinton victory, but Zogby predicted the exact percentage totals for Clinton, Dole...and even Perot at 8%.

4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States: Kerry is doing extremely well where it matters, leading Bush by 10% in the swing states. According to the Washington post.

5) PA Goes to Kerryennsylvania is NOT in play! (and neither is New Jersey. Don't let the GOP Poll 'Strategic Vision' fool you.) That leaves Ohio and Florida as the next target.

6) Seniors Favor Kerry: Also, Among Registered Voters in a 3-way matchup, seniors favor Kerry over Bush by a large margin. According to Newsweek, Seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 15 points, 54-39. The 65+ Category is particularly important in Florida where this age group make up a disproportionately large percentage of the voting population.

7) Kerry Appeals to Independents in the Debates: Polls showed that Kerry gained favor from swing voters as a result of his performance. Many more people had increased positive perceptions of Kerry as a result of the debates than the number of people who an increased positive perception for Bush. Conversely (I think), The number of those whose perception of Kerry grew more negative was less than the number of those whose perception of Bush grew more negative as a result.

8) Kerry Appeals to independents... Period.: In polling, self-proclaimed independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40.

Additionally, Media Matters and Salon were both attempting to make hay about polls oversampling Republicans:

Media relying on flawed polls: Gallup and CBS/NYT skewed toward Republicans | Research | Media Matters for America

But the media has largely ignored both Gallup's and the CBS News/New York Times polls' oversampling of Republicans. As author and joint fellow at the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation Ruy Teixeira explained, these polls include more Republicans in their sample than is representative of the electorate. According to Teixeira, the CBS News/New York Times poll sample included 4 percent more Republicans than Democrats. And Gallup told TheLeftCoaster.com's Steve Soto that it surveyed 7 percent more Republicans than Democrats. Media Matters for America has previously noted that John Zogby, president and CEO of independent polling firm Zogby International, pointed out on September 7 that in the last two presidential elections, Democrats have represented 4 percent to 5 percent more of the electorate than have Republicans:

Deep breathing over Gallup - Salon.com

The headlines are alarming for Kerry supporters: The new CNN/USAToday/Gallup Poll has Bush up by eight points among likely voters, erasing every inch of the gain Kerry made in the three debates. There’s no doubt that the Kerry folks would rather have Bush’s Gallup numbers than their own, and not just because polling drives headlines and headlines can shape momentum. But before anybody has a heart attack, here are a few things to remember. Item one: At just about this time four years ago, Gallup said Bush had a 13-point lead over Al Gore. Say what you will about Florida and the flaws in the Electoral College, Al Gore won the popular vote. If Gallup’s numbers were right then, Gore somehow erased a 13-point deficit in two weeks with a closing campaign that few folks thought was impressive. If Gallup’s numbers are right now, Kerry has only an eight-point gap to overcome.
Item two: Gallup’s numbers may well be wrong. As USAToday acknowledged last month, “Gallup’s recent polls have consistently shown Bush further ahead than he is in other surveys.” We haven’t seen the internals on Gallup’s poll yet, but we’re betting they’ll show an over-sampling of Republican voters. Gallup’s projections typically assume that more Republicans than Democrats will turn out to vote. That’s the opposite of what has happened in recent elections in what we like to call the “reality-based” world.
Item three: The race isn’t won based on national results. Just ask President Gore. Most polls suggest that Kerry has the edge in the battleground states at the moment. Florida is tied, but Pennsylvania is pretty firmly in the Kerry column, and Ohio — where the loss of jobs isn’t a “myth” — is looking a little blue these days. If Kerry can take both Pennsylvania and Ohio, Bush’s national numbers may ultimately mean nothing.

Now, does this mean the election will go the same, and the challenger will lose? No. It's not a perfect match, and many other things about the election are different, not least being the difference between the incumbent in 2004 having just gained in the previous midterm, vs. the incumbent in 2012 having suffered an historic "shellacking." The state of the nation, the economy, and many other things are entirely different.

But it's interesting nonetheless to see the sharp, near-perfect reversal of rhetoric.

 

[rocket88]

But it's interesting nonetheless to see the sharp, near-perfect reversal of rhetoric.

It does point out the danger of counting your chickens before they hatch....not that anybody wants to listen.

 

[AdamT]

It also highlights the fact that Gallup sucks in the final month of a presidential campaign. They claim they've suspended daily tracking due to Sandy. I'm wondering if they haven't done it to avoid embarrassing themselves yet again.

 

[Harshaw]

It also highlights the fact that Gallup sucks in the final month of a presidential campaign. They claim they've suspended daily tracking due to Sandy. I'm wondering if they haven't done it to avoid embarrassing themselves yet again.

You seem to trust them well enough when it's useful to you:

Not really. Gallup's economic confidence score is higher than it's been since it was started in 2008.

In a new Gallup poll, respondents said that Obama won the third debate by a margin of 56% to 33%. They had him winning the second debate by a smaller margin, and Romney winning the first debate 72% to 20%.

Over all, respondents said that Romney won debate season by a narrow 46% to 44% margin, with 10% undecided. With a margin of error of +/- 4%, that constitutes a statistical tie.

Viewers Deem Obama Winner of Third Debate, 56% to 33%

Let's get it back on track. Gallup has just released a poll asking who won the second debate. Their poll shows that Obama won.

Who won?

Obama 51%, Romney 38%, Undecided 11%.

The result is well outside the margin of error.

Among independents, Obama won 54% to 33% (better than 20 points), giving further credence to my theory that Republicans can't be objective and/or honest about this election (78% of Republicans judged it a Romney win).

Obama Judged Winner of Second Debate

Which, interestingly enough, fits quite well into the one of the themes of this thread.

 

[AdamT]

You seem to trust them well enough when it's useful to you:

I think that Gallup is generally a very good polling firm, except that they have a godawful likely voter model. Notice that the polls I cited don't rely on their likely voter model?

 

[Harshaw]

I think that Gallup is generally a very good polling firm, except that they have a godawful likely voter model. Notice that the polls I cited don't rely on their likely voter model?

Oh, of COURSE.

 

[Deuce]

Oh, of COURSE.

It figures that a libertarian would have trouble with something more complicated than GOOD|BAD

 

[AdamT]

Oh, of COURSE.

Excellent! Sarcasm is SO much better than having a real argument.

 

[Harshaw]

It figures that a libertarian would have trouble with something more complicated than GOOD|BAD

Deuce, your batting average for irrelevant responses to my posts remains at 1.000.

 

[Harshaw]

Excellent! Sarcasm is SO much better than having a real argument.

:shrug: You accept the things from Gallup that you like and reject the things you don't. You're doing exactly what those in the OP did, and everyone else who does the same.

 

[Jredbaron96]

I called it!

 

[Harshaw]

I called it!

You called what?

 

[Jredbaron96]

You called what?

That this election would turn out like 2004.

An unpopular incumbent president faces off against a filp-flopping opponent who his party has some problems getting behind. \

I totally called it. Like, in my head.

 

[Fishstyx]

Think the main difference is the enthusiasm difference between Kerry and Romney. Guess will see just how much come Tuesday.

 

[Breitbart4Life]

Think the main difference is the enthusiasm difference between Kerry and Romney. Guess will see just how much come Tuesday.

Kerry had plenty of enthusiasm. Bush just had more. Before 2008, both candidates received more votes than any other candidate in history. Bush being the most at the time of course.

 

[Harshaw]

That this election would turn out like 2004.

An unpopular incumbent president faces off against a filp-flopping opponent who his party has some problems getting behind. \

I totally called it. Like, in my head.

The election hasn't happened yet, so you haven't really "called" anything.

 

[AdamT]

:shrug: You accept the things from Gallup that you like and reject the things you don't. You're doing exactly what those in the OP did, and everyone else who does the same.

Mmm, no, I accept things from Gallup that I think reflect accurate polling data and I reject the results of their likely voter model which has historically been out of whack.

 

[Jredbaron96]

The election hasn't happened yet, so you haven't really "called" anything.

You're cramping my style Harsh.

 

[Harshaw]

Mmm, no, I accept things from Gallup that I think reflect accurate polling data and I reject the results of their likely voter model which has historically been out of whack.

Which is no different from anyone else rejecting or accepting certain polls but not others, for stated methodological reasons, which is the point of the thread.

Yet, oddly enough, those methodological reasons seem to line up with the poll results they'd prefer.

 

[AdamT]

Which is no different from anyone else rejecting or accepting certain polls but not others, for stated methodological reasons, which is the point of the thread.

So I guess my comment was right on tartget. :shrug:

 

[Harshaw]

So I guess my comment was right on tartget. :shrug:

If you wish to be seen an illustration of the point of the thread, then by all means. :shrug:

 

[CedarBear]

Question:

How long have you been waiting to vote?

 

[Harshaw]

Question:

How long have you been waiting to vote?

What are you referring to?

 

[CedarBear]

What are you referring to?

Post was a bit unclear.

Question should have read:

"How many years have you been waiting to vote in this election?"

 

[Harshaw]

Post was a bit unclear.

Question should have read:

"How many years have you been waiting to vote in this election?"

Still don't know what that means. What are you asking?