Watch the death rate starting July 3rd

[Rickeroo]

Raw data:





Both charts end July 1st. According to conventional wisdom, the rise in cases on June 19th was caused by republican states "opening up". Since there are 5 days from exposure to symptoms, this "opening up" magically occurred June 14th or thereabouts.

Once symptoms occur, it's 14 days to death. Day 14 is July 3rd, so from then on we should see a distinct upward trend in deaths.

Note Apr 4 - Apr 10 was well over 30,000 cases a day, which supported a daily death rate 14 days later of between 2000 and 2500.

All things equal, we should start seeing 2000-2500 daily deaths pretty much in the next few days, since the case count 14 days prior is equal to early April.

 

[Luther]

Raw data:

View attachment 67285971

View attachment 67285972

Both charts end July 1st. According to conventional wisdom, the rise in cases on June 19th was caused by republican states "opening up". Since there are 5 days from exposure to symptoms, this "opening up" magically occurred June 14th or thereabouts.

Once symptoms occur, it's 14 days to death. Day 14 is July 3rd, so from then on we should see a distinct upward trend in deaths.

Note Apr 4 - Apr 10 was well over 30,000 cases a day, which supported a daily death rate 14 days later of between 2000 and 2500.

All things equal, we should start seeing 2000-2500 daily deaths pretty much in the next few days, since the case count 14 days prior is equal to early April.

How does it compare to the NORMAL 2 1/2 Million normal deaths every year?

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Raw data:

View attachment 67285971

View attachment 67285972

Both charts end July 1st. According to conventional wisdom, the rise in cases on June 19th was caused by republican states "opening up". Since there are 5 days from exposure to symptoms, this "opening up" magically occurred June 14th or thereabouts.

Once symptoms occur, it's 14 days to death. Day 14 is July 3rd, so from then on we should see a distinct upward trend in deaths.

Note Apr 4 - Apr 10 was well over 30,000 cases a day, which supported a daily death rate 14 days later of between 2000 and 2500.

All things equal, we should start seeing 2000-2500 daily deaths pretty much in the next few days, since the case count 14 days prior is equal to early April.

States run by governors of both parties began opening up in late April to May. The current raft of cases is linked to the socialist insurrections that have been going on across the country, reopening policies have nothing to do with it.

We will not see 2500 daily deaths. You misunderstand the facts, first off it is not “14 days to death once infected” it is within 14 days of exposure you might suffer symptoms. Might. For the new infections which are nearly all under 30 that won’t be many.

Secondly as mentioned above, average rates of age of infection has plummeted

Third, medical professionals have gotten better at treatment

Fourth, the case numbers are higher because of testing.

 

[Torus34]

Raw data:

View attachment 67285971

View attachment 67285972

Both charts end July 1st. According to conventional wisdom, the rise in cases on June 19th was caused by republican states "opening up". Since there are 5 days from exposure to symptoms, this "opening up" magically occurred June 14th or thereabouts.

Once symptoms occur, it's 14 days to death. Day 14 is July 3rd, so from then on we should see a distinct upward trend in deaths.

Note Apr 4 - Apr 10 was well over 30,000 cases a day, which supported a daily death rate 14 days later of between 2000 and 2500.

All things equal, we should start seeing 2000-2500 daily deaths pretty much in the next few days, since the case count 14 days prior is equal to early April.

Hi!

I've been tracking, recording and 'spread-sheeting'* the data from 3/8/2020. I can't confirm your rather precise figures for time lags, but you are absolutely correct for noting them. The individual time between diagnosis and death can, for an individual patient, be a month or more.

We will, based upon my tracking, see a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 viral deaths. I follow that as a percent, up or down, in total deaths for week on week, using the days Monday through Saturday. [Sunday data is, quite frankly, unreliable due to our complex and inefficient reporting system in the US.]

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

Sent from my old PC, using a cheap keyboard.

* This permits me to follow trends in a number of derived figures such as the percent of population infected and the number of tests we're 'behind', compared to a base date.

 

[Mycroft]

Colorado...with our Democratic Governor...started opening up May 29th.



I wonder what Colorado is doing that those other state...both Dem and Rep...are not doing?

We have certainly been testing more...it shows in the generally increasing numbers of new cases.



Perhaps it's because our Governor, even though he's a Democrat, hasn't been stupid about the whole thing...unlike other Dem and Rep Governors.

 

[Slavister]

All things equal ...

Except all things are NOT equal:

1. We now have medications and techniques that reduce mortality. We did not have that before.

2. As has been widely reported, new cases are among much younger population. Vast majority of them won't die. You have to wait for them to spread the disease to older population before you start seeing deaths.

3. We used to test less people and now we test more. Not only does it mean we'd get relatively more cases vs deaths, it also means we catch COVID cases EARLIER. This in turn means the lag from cases to deaths will increase from what we saw before.

 

[beefheart]

Remember, the OP said back in March that we got this virus thing under control....his batting average is zero

 

[Moonglow]

Remember, the OP said back in March that we got this virus thing under control....his batting average is zero

Throw in Mushmouth for that award also.

 

[OlNate]

How does it compare to the NORMAL 2 1/2 Million normal deaths every year?

These deaths could have been reduced through competent leadership.

 

[Luther]

These deaths could have been reduced through competent leadership.

I know what you mean(LOL)

AP count: Over 4,500 virus patients sent to NY nursing homes - ABC News

 

[OlNate]

I know what you mean(LOL)

AP count: Over 4,500 virus patients sent to NY nursing homes - ABC News

If only America had a leader that could speak to and influence all states, ideally one in a position to prevent the disease from crossing an ocean and making American soil in the first place. You guys should really look into some kind of a federal system, maybe even a prime minister or a president, who could have done something before it became the problem of all of these obviously incompetent state governments. That would have really made a difference. Maybe something you guys will want to look into in the future.

 

[beefheart]

Throw in Mushmouth for that award also.

Yep, and they think everyone forgets how incredibly wrong they were, and still are.

I look at Rickaroo's posts as a joke now, I'll trust actual scientists.

 

[TomFitz]

If only America had a leader that could speak to and influence all states, ideally one in a position to prevent the disease from crossing an ocean and making American soil in the first place. You guys should really look into some kind of a federal system, maybe even a prime minister or a president, who could have done something before it became the problem of all of these obviously incompetent state governments. That would have really made a difference. Maybe something you guys will want to look into in the future.

“frankly, no. I take no responsibility at all.”

 

[OlNate]

“frankly, no. I take no responsibility at all.”

Except, he used to know...sigh.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

How does it compare to the NORMAL 2 1/2 Million normal deaths every year?

2.5 million dead Americans/year ÷ 365 days/year ≈ 6900 dead Americans a day

2,500 additional dead Americans/day means about 36% more dead Americans /day
2500/6900 ≈ 0.362

 

[PeteEU]

Raw data:

View attachment 67285971

View attachment 67285972

Both charts end July 1st. According to conventional wisdom, the rise in cases on June 19th was caused by republican states "opening up". Since there are 5 days from exposure to symptoms, this "opening up" magically occurred June 14th or thereabouts.

Once symptoms occur, it's 14 days to death. Day 14 is July 3rd, so from then on we should see a distinct upward trend in deaths.

Note Apr 4 - Apr 10 was well over 30,000 cases a day, which supported a daily death rate 14 days later of between 2000 and 2500.

All things equal, we should start seeing 2000-2500 daily deaths pretty much in the next few days, since the case count 14 days prior is equal to early April.

It is 3 to 7 days for symptoms, IF you get symptoms.

As for death. It will be hard to compare for several reasons.

1) treatment now is more advanced than it was 2 months ago when no one knew what to do.

2) Cause of death registration in those GOP states. The fiddling of the numbers is rampant. You really need to look at above normal death numbers across the board.

I would not be surprised to see low Covid death numbers, but very high influenza deaths or even natural causes.

3) Deaths can come fast and others take time. 14 days or 80 days or 3 days....comes down to the patient and their underlying condition.

But it is nr 2 we need to worry about...GOP states have a political reason to under report deaths and hold back information.

Sent from my Honor 8X

 

[Luther]

2.5 million dead Americans/year ÷ 365 days/year ≈ 6900 dead Americans a day

2,500 additional dead Americans/day means about 36% more dead Americans /day
2500/6900 ≈ 0.362

2,500 additional dead Americans/day

And this has been the "consistent" number since the virus started in the U.S.?(LOL)

 

[snakestretcher]

Don't worry, trust in Tangerine face; "we have it under control...it's going to be just fine". He said so in January therefore it's true and it's actually a hoax.

Trump on coronavirus from China: '''We have it totally under control'''

 

[ElChupacabra]

Don't worry, trust in Tangerine face; "we have it under control...it's going to be just fine". He said so in January therefore it's true and it's actually a hoax.

Trump on coronavirus from China: '''We have it totally under control'''

That was definitely a massive mistake, however to focus on only that without looking at the measures taken to keep the numbers trending downward isn't looking at the whole picture. If that mistake were made and New York leadership wasn't able to help turn things around, then I'd agree they have failed on multiple levels. The disease is still active and problematic, so it remains to be seen how it plays out in states which were the first ones impacted. With a holiday weekend upon us and people tired of this "new normal", it will depend on their behavior which way things go.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

And this has been the "consistent" number since the virus started in the U.S.?(LOL)

You are the only person making that erroneous case, fyi fwiw.

You asked about how some a number compared.
I did the math for you.
You're welcome.


If you look at the number you asked about, you can see how it relates to the other days' numbers.

 

[minnie616]

I found the states with highest number of deaths last week.

Very sad and disturbing, we have learned more about Covid 19 since March and April . I was hoping the medical community was going to be able to reduce the death rate of hospitalizated Covid 19 patients.

Most states with the highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths -- more than 2,000 -- reported an increase of about 50-230 COVID-19 deaths since last week.



California reported an increase of 417 COVID-19 deaths.

Florida is reporting an increase of 274 deaths
and

Arizona is reporting an increase of 247 deaths since last week.( June 21 - 27)

 

[Luther]

You are the only person making that erroneous case, fyi fwiw.

You asked about how some a number compared.
I did the math for you.
You're welcome.


If you look at the number you asked about, you can see how it relates to the other days' numbers.

Just to let you know, that was a very poor response

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Just to let you know, that was a very poor response

Your instinct to survive will kick in and you'll be alright.

You're right though.
I should've just pointed out how your question about the levels of deaths was a straw man and left it at that.