[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

[Rogue Valley]

Calls for a second referendum cannot be justified as anything but sour grapes and would make a nonsense of any future election.

I respectfully disagree. Brits did not have possession of all the pertinent facts prior to the referendum vote; many benefits and formulations that were put forth by the Brexit cheerleaders were, in retrospect, either manipulations or utter rubbish; at the time of the referendum, the possibility of foreign meddling was not on anyone's radar.

Clearly, the Brexit referendum process was flawed on many levels and delivered a skewered result.

 

[Westphalian]

I respectfully disagree. Brits did not have possession of all the pertinent facts prior to the referendum vote; many benefits and formulations that were put forth by the Brexit cheerleaders were, in retrospect, either manipulations or utter rubbish; at the time of the referendum, the possibility of foreign meddling was not on anyone's radar.

Clearly, the Brexit referendum process was flawed on many levels and delivered a skewered result.

Presumably you are blissfully unaware of all the rubbish spoken by the Remain side, which incidentally included virtually the whole UK establishment.

You are unaware of the 'emergency budget', the house price crash, the rising unemployment - all of course blatantly wrong.

Any referendum is a point in time exercise. The costs and benefits of leaving the EU can not be known in advance of leaving. The same problems apply now as in 2016.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ Clearly, the Brexit referendum process was flawed on many levels and delivered a skewered result.

and opt-outs
Very true but it was a result of a democratic process. The irony of the situation is that there are two options pst hard Brexit. We become a success and never look back OR economic decline and disaster leading to the UK seeking to re-enter in 15 years time.

If we go down the latter route, all the vetoes we won will never be offered back, We join on the same basis as any other new members who want to join. For the benefit of honesty, I hope the politicians are much more honest and tell the truth to the public 2nd time round.

~ You are unaware of the 'emergency budget', the house price crash, the rising unemployment - all of course blatantly wrong ~

Um.. the Bank of England sat on its hands after the result?

 

[Sven Karma]

Well, that no confidence vote was instructive, I guess. May locked in place yet even further undermined.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Well, that no confidence vote was instructive, I guess. May locked in place yet even further undermined.

There was a quick fast paced thread about it elsewhere in the Europe forum - looking back at it from my Remain / Moderate Conservative position it does also read as that the ERG have done their best for the Hard Brexit push and been defeated.

As I said to another Brexiteer previously - precious few mid size businesses actually support the no deal position. A whole lot of small independent traders (plasterers / market-traders / plumbers / hairdressers / brickies etc ) who don't export anything whatsoever tend to be the type who think "no deal." My gut feel is that a lot of the workers in mid and larger industries and factories who voted Brexit because of immigration have started to think about the impact on their jobs and livelihood.

Listening to a lot of MPs interviews these last few weeks - an eventual Norway model seems to be the preferred Brexit option which when you consider means most of the benefits of being in the EU with none of the right of say / veto etc etc.

 

[Chagos]

There was a quick fast paced thread about it elsewhere in the Europe forum - looking back at it from my Remain / Moderate Conservative position it does also read as that the ERG have done their best for the Hard Brexit push and been defeated.

As I said to another Brexiteer previously - precious few mid size businesses actually support the no deal position. A whole lot of small independent traders (plasterers / market-traders / plumbers / hairdressers / brickies etc ) who don't export anything whatsoever tend to be the type who think "no deal." My gut feel is that a lot of the workers in mid and larger industries and factories who voted Brexit because of immigration have started to think about the impact on their jobs and livelihood.

Listening to a lot of MPs interviews these last few weeks - an eventual Norway model seems to be the preferred Brexit option which when you consider means most of the benefits of being in the EU with none of the right of say / veto etc etc.

At which the likes of Nadine Dorries will no doubt wet themselves yet once again.

If it comes to the Norway model, that will (just like the Swiss one) incidentally entail freedom of movement also for people (of the EU).

Bang will go the ambitions of keeping the horrible Pollacks out.:roll:

 

[Chagos]

And now, for something completely different (aka comic relief):

 

[Bergslagstroll]

This movie about Brexit could be intersting.

https://www.vox.com/2018/12/15/18142226/hbo-brexit-leave-campaign-dominic-cummings



Also intersting that a movie about the Brexit can be released so soon in the middle of the process.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

What we are witnessing is a bursting out in public of conversations that have been happening for a while, at a senior level, in private.
They can be summarised like this: 'What on earth do we do next?' Link.

What... a... mess....

 

[Chagos]

What... a... mess....

One of the things (among many others) that remains more and more idiotic, is the constantly uttered fear of another public vote causing even more division.

Without calling either for that vote or arguing its rejection, WTH do all these idiots constantly parroting this meme think we have now?

IOW how much more divisive can things get thru whatever course?

Only certainty that could be garnered in the last days being that Tony B. Liar should have had his vocal chords cut long ago, seeing how there's clearly no other way to get him to shut the hell up.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ Tony B. Liar ~

Notice how John Major pretty much said the same thing as Blair but Blair and his legacy are so tainted by Iraq that he's the easy target, easy to gain whatever popularity she can by having a go at him.

Not that I like the guy anymore - just an observation.

 

[Chagos]

Notice how John Major pretty much said the same thing as Blair but Blair and his legacy are so tainted by Iraq that he's the easy target, easy to gain whatever popularity she can by having a go at him.

Not that I like the guy anymore - just an observation.

Blair is burned for the exact reasons you rightly list. That's my gripe where he's concerned but I can easily extend it to the media that keeps shoving a mike under his nose. That May would also consider his appearance to be the perfect invite for a slam dunk, says as much about him as it says about May for having taken it.

With Major I can give what he says some consideration, with Blair I won't even consider a "Good morning" from him, seeing how it will probably mean that it's raining, even if the sun should inexplicably happen to shine.

That's the one good thing I can find to say about the "other one" across the pond. Once out of office at least he remained silent as well.

 

[Manc Skipper]

A cold hard shower of Brexit reality from someone with insider experience of Europe at the highest level.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

 

[Bergslagstroll]

And now, for something completely different (aka comic relief):

I got a tip for your punishment of all the policians involved. Let get Gilbert read the entire 500 page provisional agreement to them and also through in Gilbert's Loch Ness Monster and Big Foot erotica stories for good measure.

 

[Westphalian]

Interesting that so few of the Leave persuasion bother to post in this thread.


Symptomatic of the dialogue of the deaf which splits the UK. I'll leave you to your echo chamber.

 

[Chagos]

Interesting that so few of the Leave persuasion bother to post in this thread.


Symptomatic of the dialogue of the deaf which splits the UK. I'll leave you to your echo chamber.

But not before having shouted into it so as to hear your own voice, eh?:roll:

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Interesting that so few of the Leave persuasion bother to post in this thread ~

Maybe there's nothing really to shout about. The main hard Brexiteer politicians never stood for party leadership, there've been no signs of any concrete plans for the ordinary person in the street to get excited about and no deal Brexit looks unpalatable to all except the most extreme Brexiteers who have their own agenda.

If you also look at what's happening economically at the moment with less than 100 days to go - high street sales fall every year but now Xmas internet sales are down which shows that consumer confidence is very low. As for car sales and other big ticket items....

 

[Infinite Chaos]

"They need us more than we need them," has been a recurrent theme in the Brexit debate ~ "Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the chief executives of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel's door demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market."

Good article here.

Maybe another reason why consumer confidence isn't what it once was - those who honestly thought German car makers would beat Angela Merkel's door down for a UK friendly trade deal are still waiting.

 

[Chagos]

Maybe there's nothing really to shout about. The main hard Brexiteer politicians never stood for party leadership, there've been no signs of any concrete plans for the ordinary person in the street to get excited about and no deal Brexit looks unpalatable to all except the most extreme Brexiteers who have their own agenda.

If you also look at what's happening economically at the moment with less than 100 days to go - high street sales fall every year but now Xmas internet sales are down which shows that consumer confidence is very low. As for car sales and other big ticket items....

Gospodin Vestfal'skaya follows the philosophy that money ain't everything and that freedom amounts to more than economic progress.

Where he gained insight into either the one or the other is anybody's guess, but it can't have happened back home.:lol:

But yeah, totally agree with you, what's there to blow the triumphant trumpets over when everybody is keeping fingers crossed that reality won't hit as hard as feared?

 

[Chagos]

Good article here.

Maybe another reason why consumer confidence isn't what it once was - those who honestly thought German car makers would beat Angela Merkel's door down for a UK friendly trade deal are still waiting.

One needs to see (to pick on the much favoured car industry argument) that much of Britain's production (the lion's share, in fact) is foreign owned and Britain was picked as a favourable location due to supplying favourable conditions both in skilled workers and (lower) wages, while at the same time providing a tariff free door to the EU.

In that field one has to consider the home market AND how much (British) production units owe their existence in large part to the EU being a more sizeable market to produce for.

Clearly the UK is an important market for cars produced "on the continent", but for German cars produced either in Germany or elsewhere in the EU (not to mention the US) it is far from the biggest overall, even where it is the biggest of all EU countries. Nevertheless the UK accounts for about 25 % of all (German) car sales in Europe (2017) and around 17 % world wide.

At the same time we need to see what happens in accordance with whatever form of Brexit eventually comes to pass, seeing how neither this withdrawal agreement (dead already or not) nor a crash-out holds any future trade deals.

Those being for later.

There's a fair chance that the EU will do away with import duties on foreign cars altogether, some time in the future. They were imposed originally as protection against the price dumping policies of Japan and, later, S. Korea and with makers from both being quite established in the EU by now (last not least in Britain) protective tariffs do seem a bit anachronistic these days. Incidentally something the various US administrations have always misunderstood as being directed at American imports to the EU and laughable in face of Europeans actually much preferring to drive proper cars.:2razz:

As such I envisage the future question being not so much about whether it remains worthwhile to maintain UK production for distribution thruout the EU (and beyond), but whether the UK's domestic market will justify such a strategy.

 

[Sven Karma]

Interesting that so few of the Leave persuasion bother to post in this thread.


Symptomatic of the dialogue of the deaf which splits the UK. I'll leave you to your echo chamber.

Buh bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Lol that you could take the time out to announce your departure but never got round to explaining how the 'taking back control' thing you were so keen on is supposed to work in the real world.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ a favourable location due to supplying favourable conditions both in skilled workers and (lower) wages, while at the same time providing a tariff free door to the EU ~

I'm pretty sure other nation states among the 27 will be planning how they can fill the gap we leave. Many years ago, a Taiwanese friend of mine on her Master's degree offered me the chance to become part of her production / sales route into the EU when she went back to Taiwan to set up in business. I was arrogant enough to think my own plans were advanced and turned her down. She found someone else quite easily... we're still friends but she's now a multi-millionaire and well... I'm not.

Gospodin Vestfal'skaya

:lamo

Buh bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Lol that you could take the time out to announce your departure but never got round to explaining how the 'taking back control' thing you were so keen on is supposed to work in the real world.

He's a Putinista. It's all about sowing discord among the enemies of Russia so there was never a positive policy to promote with him. Funny thing is that Putin actually had his own plans for a pan continent multi-country organisation to rival the EU. The hope is to dismantle the EU so that those countries who do not join become instead part of this new union - you won't hear Westphalian banging on about sovereignty there or any of the other calls he makes in support of the Brexit argument.

 

[Westphalian]

IC - you refer to the Eurasian Union but assume that the aim of it is to copy the EU.

It always amazes me that westerners are so unaware of the gaping flaws in their ideas that they brazenly assume that everyone wants to replicate.

The aim of the Eurasian Union is explicitly to learn from the mistakes of the EU and to create trading and economic benefits without the messy failures of trying to create a political union by stealth and without consent via a premature monetary union and directives from an unaccountable Brussels.

I must say it looks to me as if the EU borrowed some plays from the Soviet Union in creating a centralised but remote core insulated from elections and the people.

Not everything about the EU is bad, but nobody in Russia is trying to re-create it.

As for the comments about Russia trying to fragment it- that's just wrong. It wants a stronger EU, one actually which doesn't take its orders from Washington and can work with Russia on its own behalf.

Still - I know the propaganda too. I just hope some of you are still capable of thinking for yourselves.

 

[Chagos]

~......................Still - I know the propaganda too. I just hope some of you are still capable of thinking for yourselves.

With the asinine assessment you let serve as a precursor here, we return that hope right back to you.

 

[Westphalian]

With the asinine assessment you let serve as a precursor here, we return that hope right back to you.

Yet another negative asinine comment which contributes nothing.

Your usual!