[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

[Chagos]

Re: How will Brexit go?

I hope you are right. That we will leave the EU and all be better off because of it.

I do ask you to spare a thought for the fact... if we had not been lied to by a generation of politicians the British people would have had the chance to adapt and accept the true vision of Europe. Every time anyone here tried to point out the true aims of Europe wide integration (which was never a secret) they were shouted down. The 'myth' that we were simply part of a common market was peddled as politicians from all parties to keep us in and give them someone to blame for their incompetence. Now we are left with the worst of both worlds.

With this assessment I find no fault.

One may see a Europe that goes beyond the concepts of trade and money as one wishes (I personally see much merit in it), yet any such desires were denied as existing for decades, by those supposedly representing the British public and in that representation obliged to keep it informed.

This is an aspect that people here on "the continent" are not very aware of and from which derives most of the bewilderment at "awkward British antics".

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Did you ever expect more to be achieved?

Personally no, but I think the hard Brexiteers should have been forced to put up and stand for leadership right from the start. I would happily have seen them have to swear all their property and holdings including overseas holdings as forfeit if their walk in the park negotiation hadn't worked.
They have safely poopooed everything from the sidelines and wilfully misled the public while some of the heroes such as Rees-Mogg invested and transferred holdings into the EU or Dyson went and invested in the Far East rather than the UK.

You couldn't make it up - meanwhile certain newspapers for whatever reason beat the drums that helped to march us out.

~ It might be a piece of dung but it is the best there can be before the deadline.

It's very similar to the Norway deal but supposedly without the overt annual payments.

 

[Westphalian]

Re: How will Brexit go?

I hope you are right. That we will leave the EU and all be better off because of it.

I do ask you to spare a thought for the fact... if we had not been lied to by a generation of politicians the British people would have had the chance to adapt and accept the true vision of Europe. Every time anyone here tried to point out the true aims of Europe wide integration (which was never a secret) they were shouted down. The 'myth' that we were simply part of a common market was peddled as politicians from all parties to keep us in and give them someone to blame for their incompetence. Now we are left with the worst of both worlds.

I think you mis-understand.

Politicans sold it as a common market only because they knew that to advocate political integration and a European state was political suicide. The UK has never been truly European. It is a peripheral island, and has different historical and cultural priorities and outlooks to a German led continent.

People don't form their views solely on the basis of what politicians tell them. If they did, then the UK would have overwhelmingly rejected Brexit in the referendum. I'm afraid that too often analysis fails to understand that even Leave voters can think for themselves!

 

[PeteEU]

Re: How will Brexit go?

I think you mis-understand.

Politicans sold it as a common market only because they knew that to advocate political integration and a European state was political suicide. The UK has never been truly European. It is a peripheral island, and has different historical and cultural priorities and outlooks to a German led continent.

People don't form their views solely on the basis of what politicians tell them. If they did, then the UK would have overwhelmingly rejected Brexit in the referendum. I'm afraid that too often analysis fails to understand that even Leave voters can think for themselves!

What a load of..

The people's of the UK are as European as the French, Danes and Germans... why? Because that is where they freaking came from!

That Brits for centuries had illusions of grandeur and many still have... over their own country's importance... does not mean that they are not European or part of Europe. They always have been and always will be regardless of the imperialistic brainwashing crap the right does in the UK.

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[Chagos]

Re: How will Brexit go?

I think you mis-understand.

Seems like you need to re-read the post you responded to. Refuting Gerry's take by repeating exactly his argument seems to show that you're the one who's confused.

Politicans sold it as a common market only because they knew that to advocate political integration and a European state was political suicide.

To help you out of your misunderstanding, the idea of Europe as a political union was never a secret. On the contrary, it was very much advocated as such. The point Gerry made is that it was UK politicos of practically all generations that tried to sell to the UK public that everything just remained as being about a common market.

That is not fault on the side of Brussels, it is down to prevarication of British governments from whichever side of the aisle.

The UK has never been truly European. It is a peripheral island, and has different historical and cultural priorities and outlooks to a German led continent.

There are certainly still many Brits who believe that the Balkans begin at Oostende and Calais, but to project that take of old onto the majority of Brits today, just shows how ignorant of Europe in general and Britain in particular you are.

People don't form their views solely on the basis of what politicians tell them. If they did, then the UK would have overwhelmingly rejected Brexit in the referendum. I'm afraid that too often analysis fails to understand that even Leave voters can think for themselves!

Thinking for oneself is both a good thing and often widely overrated. The latter quality often surfacing when thinking shows itself to consist of one fallacy after another.

Quite apart from the fact that the leavers didn't think for themselves anyway, they had their thinking done for them and then followed the order to think what they had been told to think.

In that they differ very little from the remainers except for the remainers being presented with salient arguments in support while the leavers were presented with mostly lies.

You of all people should know this best, seeing how nothing you ever present here deviates even one tenth of a degree from what your masters tell you to think.

 

[goldkam]

Is there really any point to brexit now?

Yes undoubtedly....Brexit will gain and lose on both sides.

 

[Chagos]

Re: How will Brexit go?

What a load of..

The people's of the UK are as European as the French, Danes and Germans... why? Because that is where they freaking came from!

That Brits for centuries had illusions of grandeur and many still have... over their own country's importance... does not mean that they are not European or part of Europe. They always have been and always will be regardless of the imperialistic brainwashing crap the right does in the UK.

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I think the argument (non-European) raised was more over British self-perception, partly of old and partly still prevailing today.

There's still a take, especially among the older, that differentiates between Britain and Europe in the manner as if both were different entities. Not so much in the geographical sense, more in one of culture.

Best demonstrated in the often cited soundbite of the past "heavy fog in the channel, continent cut completely off".

I've encountered similar forms of insular thinking on the small islands of the Dutch and German coasts, with whole island countries it just tends to be more pronounced in that far more people are afflicted by it.

 

[PeteEU]

It's very similar to the Norway deal but supposedly without the overt annual payments.

Yea but unlike Norway this aint a trade deal.. it is a divorce deal. The final deal will have payments and if the UK wants access to the EU institutions then it will have to pay like Norway does. Plus it will be paying for border security, as I suspect the French will want to renegotiate.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ it is a divorce deal. The final deal will have payments and if the UK wants access to the EU institutions then it will have to pay like Norway does ~

The hard Brexiteers will bare their backsides and say German car makers will force the EU to.... oh wait, that was 24 months ago. Wonder what line will be pushed when it is time to pay for access.

How do you see car manufacture? Do you think they'll move lock, stock and barrel into Europe or will there be some way that car parts continue to move frictionlessly across borders?
Me, I think it will cost - not sure whether manufacturers will be able to absorb the costs though.

 

[PeteEU]

The hard Brexiteers will bare their backsides and say German car makers will force the EU to.... oh wait, that was 24 months ago. Wonder what line will be pushed when it is time to pay for access.

How do you see car manufacture? Do you think they'll move lock, stock and barrel into Europe or will there be some way that car parts continue to move frictionlessly across borders?
Me, I think it will cost - not sure whether manufacturers will be able to absorb the costs though.

Was actually thinking of the administrative stuff.. ERASMUS and such stuff. That is what Norway pays for into the EU among other things.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The hard Brexiteers will bare their backsides and say German car makers will force the EU to.... oh wait, that was 24 months ago. Wonder what line will be pushed when it is time to pay for access.

How do you see car manufacture? Do you think they'll move lock, stock and barrel into Europe or will there be some way that car parts continue to move frictionlessly across borders?
Me, I think it will cost - not sure whether manufacturers will be able to absorb the costs though.

If there are any tariffs on parts/cars being exported from the UK to the EU, the UK plants will slowly over time be shuttered, and new plants in eastern Europe will open up to replace them. Excluding the very high value cars/parts (ie Bentley, RR, LR etc)

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ tariffs on parts/cars being exported from the UK to the EU, the UK plants will slowly over time be shuttered~

The irony being the large numbers of workers at car plants who voted for Brexit. Somehow, many seemed to think it wouldn't affect them negatively. Admittedly many hard Brexiteers said it would be a piece of cake and German car manufacturers would be beating Angela Merkel's door down to get a soft deal for us....

 

[Chagos]

The irony being the large numbers of workers at car plants who voted for Brexit. Somehow, many seemed to think it wouldn't affect them negatively. Admittedly many hard Brexiteers said it would be a piece of cake and German car manufacturers would be beating Angela Merkel's door down to get a soft deal for us....

They're actually looking to bigger markets, with BMW and VW both planning to build second production plants in the US.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Brussels had said that, as a result of Brexit, the UK would not be allowed immediate access to part of the system intended for use by government agencies, the armed forces and emergency responders once it came online in 2020

~

Mr Gyimah told BBC Radio 4's Today: "What has happened with Galileo is a foretaste of the brutal negotiations we will go through that will weaken our national interests, make us poorer and less secure." Link.

One option would be to rent access to a satellite system we have helped build but the Brexit "gains" keep coming...

They're actually looking to bigger markets, with BMW and VW both planning to build second production plants in the US.

Shhhh... that's project fear dontcha know? Them Germans are highly dependent on sales to the UK market and if they lose access the whole German economy will come crashing down...

 

[Chagos]

~...........................Shhhh... that's project fear dontcha know? Them Germans are highly dependent on sales to the UK market and if they lose access the whole German economy will come crashing down...

Bah, Nissan will balance it all out with their UK production. They can't think of anything more thrilling than exporting the bulk of it to the EU at premium tariffs.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/04/will-nissan-stay-once-britain-leaves-sunderland-brexit-business-dilemma

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ They can't think of anything more thrilling than exporting the bulk of it to the EU at premium tariffs ~

in Washington, Sunderland, where most of Nissan’s 8,000 UK employees live and work, there was little sign of panic on Friday at Carlos Ghosn’s remarks. “It’s a bit of blackmail, really,” said an engineering consultant, one of 32,000 people supported by the car giant via its supply chain and dealerships. “It’s just a chance to get a few quid out of the government,” said his friend, who works for a metal fabrication company that has fitted out much of the Washington plant. He was one of 82,934 Mackems who voted to leave the EU, 61% of those who turned out in Sunderland.

The engineer lives in Boldon, a few miles north of Nissan’s gargantuan complex. “I’ve got friends who work there, from shop floor to management, and I can’t say they seem too perturbed. Every other family in Boldon has someone working there or at one of the tier-one suppliers and they’re not too worried. There’s no mass panic.” Link.

I'd be interested in interviews with some of those Turkeys who voted for xmas now the situation becomes clearer for them to see. Many will blame Theresa May and not their own votes.

 

[FirstTracksGirl]

I think the exit should go well. Britain can still very much be involved in the EU through their economy, trade, markets, and other aspects without sacrificing their sovereignty or sacrificing key internal focuses within their borders. Just like other major economic powers such as Norway that aren't in the EU can still be independent, not need direction from a more centralized authority, and yet still have good cooperation with the EU. Just because they leave the EU doesn't mean they are on a figurative island.

 

[Chagos]

I'd be interested in interviews with some of those Turkeys who voted for xmas now the situation becomes clearer for them to see. Many will blame Theresa May and not their own votes.

I'm inclinded to blame Maggie for a lot of things but not for having brought industry and thus jobs to where she did, when she did.

 

[Chagos]

I think the exit should go well. Britain can still very much be involved in the EU through their economy, trade, markets, and other aspects without sacrificing their sovereignty or sacrificing key internal focuses within their borders. Just like other major economic powers such as Norway that aren't in the EU can still be independent, not need direction from a more centralized authority, and yet still have good cooperation with the EU. Just because they leave the EU doesn't mean they are on a figurative island.

Comparing the UK to Norway (or vice versa) doesn't really cut it. The economic structures, natural resources, population sizes to country size, markets on which to thrive etc. couldn't be more disparate.

 

[FirstTracksGirl]

Comparing the UK to Norway (or vice versa) doesn't really cut it. The economic structures, natural resources, population sizes to country size, markets on which to thrive etc. couldn't be more disparate.

So are you saying the UK can't survive without being in the EU or that the EU can't survive without the UK?

 

[Manc Skipper]

So are you saying the UK can't survive without being in the EU or that the EU can't survive without the UK?

There is no version of Brexit which leaves Britain better off than being in Europe. On government figures, the BEST estimate is ONLY a 3.9 drop in the economy!

 

[FirstTracksGirl]

There is no version of Brexit which leaves Britain better off than being in Europe. On government figures, the BEST estimate is ONLY a 3.9 drop in the economy!

How did Britain survive prior to their entry into the EU? Is it not possible for Britain to still partner with EU countries without being a member of the EU?

 

[Chagos]

So are you saying the UK can't survive without being in the EU or that the EU can't survive without the UK?

No, I was pointing out that comparing the UK to Norway doesn't cut it and sketching why not.

On who (EU and UK) can live without the other I said nothing.

 

[Chagos]

How did Britain survive prior to their entry into the EU?

Same way that others did, but worse than many

Is it not possible for Britain to still partner with EU countries without being a member of the EU?

Sure.

But at greater expense than before.

 

[PeteEU]

How did Britain survive prior to their entry into the EU? Is it not possible for Britain to still partner with EU countries without being a member of the EU?

Ah that argument.

1) The UK was a massive empire the bullied and killed it's way across the planet to achieve economic dominance. But by the 1960s and onwards the UK was hurting big time because the end of empire. In fact the UK needed IMF help in the early 1970s and basically were told by the IMF to join the EU to get help.

2) The UK has had trade deals with countries... kinda... before the EU.. I say kinda because trade was relatively minor compared to now and the tariffs were much higher than today. But all those deals are long gone and replaced with EU deals for the most part....deals that the UK is now pulling out of.

3) WTO schedule... this is critical to trade world wide. It basically sets down tariffs and quotas that the UK and its trading partners can set with each other. The UK will have none and they have to negotiate with 180+ countries who all have to agree to an UK schedule.

4) Without a schedule, the UK has to work with 3rd party rules... and that is a problem. As per the rules, the day after the UK leaves the EU... all countries have apply tariffs and quotas.

5) Doing trade deals takes time.. the bigger the country, the more complex. No doubt that the UK can intimidate smaller countries, but the UK will be the weak and small party against pretty much all of the top 10 economies since many of them are part of trade groups.

And this is only trade... the UK is also pulling out of air space agreements, nuclear agreements and so on... all which have to renegotiated. The key part is that the UK has not done anything to fix these problems... still have 3 months to do it but leaving it kinda late means bad deals for the UK.



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