[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Chomsky]

What you call a backfire.

Haha!

Yeah, I'd say so!

 

[MaryP]

My hope is Mika-El & Centrist may find their way down here . . . (not to over-look many others) . . .

@ them, Chomsky.

 

[Chomsky]

I am totally with you on your assessments.

Scary stuff! I'm never even really 'with' my own self!

I am beginning to wonder how much of this "special military operation" was all Putin's conception, aided by maybe a small staff of officers. Dictators easily get carried away by what they believe is their brilliance. Putin's seizure of Crimea in 2014 was one for the books; and he got much kudos from the Russian population; it is easy to see how the man may have gotten carried away and began to see himself as some military genius. Why not replicate the Crimea coup de main of 2014 on a grand scale? The Ukrainian bull went for Putin's cape in 2014, maybe the Ukrainian bull will be accomodating one more time and deliver the Dictator a successful "special military operation".

Exactly. He thought it would be Crimea 2.0.

Instead, he won't even get anything even slightly near to Afghanistan 2.0.

And if he's not careful, he might get U.S.S.R '89-91 2.0!

The "special military operation" has been strange as far as military operations go. For example, a day or two ago there was reports of Russia hitting fuel dumps in Lviv. You kind of say hmmmm. A full month after start of hostilities! Why was it not hit in the opening days of the campaign? Isnt that exactly what the General Staff of the Russian Army would have had high on their list of initial targets to be hit? And examples of this abound. Where targets you expect to be hit in the first day are hit weeks after; as if someone is realising belatedly that the Ukrainian bull is tougher than the chief expected.

This is the result of two decades murderous dictatorial criminal enterprise.

But Putin faces a serious danger. Time is not on his side. The weapons various Nato countries are scraping up and sending to Ukraine will soon start making their effects felt. A war of attrition boils down to who can manage to get more men and materiel to the line of scrimage. The west definitely can get more materiel to the line of scrimage than Russia can. It may not be enough for Putin to just hope to prevail in Donbass and south. If he cannot take Ukraine out then, with time, the support of the west will wear Russia down.

If Putin thinks he's going to win a war of attrition with the West, he's going to come up really hurtin', if he comes up at all.

 

[KCook]

Russian military assets removed from Kiev will need a lot of repairs, let alone the soldiers, who are suffering from low morale

NATO/Western Govts want the Russian military to bleed & die for their country

This war will be ongoing, as Zelenskyy will accept is a return to prewar borders.

Bleed & die could be interpreted as the west wanting a long, protracted war. Which I am confident is not the case.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

You're not the only one seeing possible analogy to '89-'91.

I think it may turn out a lot more violent than that one, sorry.
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but Pooty's
under the impression he can fool all of the people all of the time, and the rest of the world knows that's
simply not true.

 

[JANFU]

I actually believe Putin will bankrupt Russia and be removed from power just like in 1991.
It's pretty clear he is unable to fix his military issues, and simple bombing campaigns won't be enough once Ukraine begins
getting even more gear from allies.
Ukraine is now launching offense over the Russian border.

Any peace deal will include the lifting of most sanctions.
The long term effects on the Russian economy have yet to be felt.
Putin can only do so much with the economy
Russians have a very clear memory of the deaths/injured from Afghanistan war

NATO/Western countries want to bleed the Russians in Ukraine

That said, western investment in Russia is toast. Chinese perhaps, who knows but western investment does not want Putin's stink on their brands
EU will build LNG plants, reducing imports from Russia, oil will also be replaced. Some of this will take many years. Building an LNG facility takes years.
But energy from green to nuke is being built and will expand across the EU

Who knows if Russia will have an October surprise?

 

[JANFU]

I'll disagree on the point of NATO making any guarantees that would be even remotely similar to its article 5., on any peace deal.

When (not IF) Russia goes for Ukraine again, it would involve NATO in a direct war with Russia, just as much as if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Ukraine will need guarantees. We will see what they are
Finland's President told Parliament to draft the request to join NATO.
That will be fast tracked thru NATO

 

[Chagos]

I actually believe Putin will bankrupt Russia and be removed from power just like in 1991.
It's pretty clear he is unable to fix his military issues, and simple bombing campaigns won't be enough once Ukraine begins
getting even more gear from allies.
Ukraine is now launching offense over the Russian border.

I believe he was already well on his way to doing that (even where it would have taken some more years) BEFORE he engaged on thus insane war adventure.

Rather than address the dire need for reforms that Russia needed and still does, and that Yeltsin botched so magnificently, he decided to bet on reforming the military and pursuing the pipe ream that Russia can live on the stuff it has in the ground, completely ignoring that its industry (what there is of it) needed modernization to the point of actually being able to produce something that the rest of the world would want.

Not even any of the other petro states are as stupid as that, Venezuela being a possible exception.

And while the future obsolescence of fossils as a fuel source is meanwhile apparent to even the dumbest of the dumb, he's now actually played away his chances of being a player in Western industry's efforts to bridge the supply gap necessary til renewables can play a greater role, by having made it clear that it's better to buy the stuff from any other type of scum, as long as it ain't he.

Good luck with getting China to fill the pending hole in the Russian trade balance, cuz China isn't as dumb as he is.

Calling Russia something akin to Nigeria with snow (aka a giant petrol station run by the Mafia) might be overdoing it a bit right now, but when he's successfully reached the end of his path to tanking its economy completely, even his most fervent supporters will realize that oil and gas won't substitute for food.

 

[Chagos]

My hope is Mika-El & Centrist may find their way down here . . . (not to over-look many others) . . .

@Mika-El , @Centrist

hark and heed

 

[maxparrish]

You too???

Oh well, the future awaits!

Yep. Stepped on a mine and didn't even know it.

 

[CaughtInThe]

If Putin wants to fight a war of attrition against the West, he's gonna' be a hurtin'!

agree

 

[Chagos]

Ukraine will need guarantees. We will see what they are

That'll be interesting indeed. If they're anything like the previous ones........................

Finland's President told Parliament to draft the request to join NATO.
That will be fast tracked thru NATO

fast track would certainly provide a novelty.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

Had a great thread upstairs, consolidated, great thread. But it appears a number cannot make an appearance for a variety of reasons

Good idea making this thread! We were certainly missing a lot of voices in the old thread.

 

[maxparrish]

Poor devils in this tank...stopped for lunch and...

 

[Chomsky]

I think it may turn out a lot more violent than that one, sorry.
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but Pooty's
under the impression he can fool all of the people all of the time, and the rest of the world knows that's
simply not true.

If it indeed occurs, I believe you could be right.

 

[Median Voter]

I am totally with you on your assessments. I am beginning to wonder how much of this "special military operation" was all Putin's conception, aided by maybe a small staff of officers. Dictators easily get carried away by what they believe is their brilliance. Putin's seizure of Crimea in 2014 was one for the books; and he got much kudos from the Russian population; it is easy to see how the man may have gotten carried away and began to see himself as some military genius. Why not replicate the Crimea coup de main of 2014 on a grand scale? The Ukrainian bull went for Putin's cape in 2014, maybe the Ukrainian bull will be accomodating one more time and deliver the Dictator a successful "special military operation".

The "special military operation" has been strange as far as military operations go. For example, a day or two ago there was reports of Russia hitting fuel dumps in Lviv. You kind of say hmmmm. A full month after start of hostilities! Why was it not hit in the opening days of the campaign? Isnt that exactly what the General Staff of the Russian Army would have had high on their list of initial targets to be hit? And examples of this abound. Where targets you expect to be hit in the first day are hit weeks after; as if someone is realising belatedly that the Ukrainian bull is tougher than the chief expected.

Fuel and military depots were hit in the early days of the war, but it wasn't a comprehensive wipe out because they didn't believe that it would turn into a prolonged conflict. But now that the fuel supplies are being hit, Ukraine will find it much harder to resupply, especially in the East.

But Putin faces a serious danger. Time is not on his side. The weapons various Nato countries are scraping up and sending to Ukraine will soon start making their effects felt. A war of attrition boils down to who can manage to get more men and materiel to the line of scrimage. The west definitely can get more materiel to the line of scrimage than Russia can. It may not be enough for Putin to just hope to prevail in Donbass and south. If he cannot take Ukraine out then, with time, the support of the west will wear Russia down.

I would expect to see a gradual surround of the Donbass cauldron in the next few weeks, then a focus towards annexing the territories east of the Dnieper. Control of the South, East, and maybe Odessa to make Ukraine landlocked would the very least that the Kremlin will work to achieve. Which is why you've seen Kyiv become more open to concessions.

 

[Chomsky]

Yep. Stepped on a mine and didn't even know it.

So, you got fracked?

 

[JANFU]

Bleed & die could be interpreted as the west wanting a long, protracted war. Which I am confident is not the case.

The NATO Generals - Political leaders want to force a Russian compromise on prewar borders.
Inflicting massive damage on the Russian Military is a fact.
More KIA/WIA/destroyed kit, the better. Watching a well trained military destroy itself on the world stage is from what I would guess, a strategic goal

Putin has lost this war. If the west lets Russia control a land bridge to Crimea, they are delaying the day till another invasion.
This war will go on till Putin wants to end it

Putin will try to sell it as a win but many Russians with this SM world will learn more of the truth.
How long it takes for facts to travel thru Russian society, no idea on that. Yet to be seen. But Internet, SM, Russia cannot close it all down as China can. Coming 6-12 months in Russia will be interesting

Then consider all the KIA/WIA and the morale in the Russian military just took a major cliff dive.

The ramifications of the war will reverberate for decades. Unless Russia heads towards Democracy, their economy is severely ****ed

 

[JANFU]

Good idea making this thread! We were certainly missing a lot of voices in the old thread.

Well it cam from a guy, so no credit for me.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Calling Russia something akin to Nigeria with snow (aka a giant petrol station run by the Mafia) might be overdoing it

Not anymore it isn't.
In fact, calling it Nigeria with Snow is really an insult to Nigeria at this point.

Russia really IS "a gas station masquerading as a country" at this point.

 

[Chomsky]

The NATO Generals - Political leaders want to force a Russian compromise on prewar borders.
Inflicting massive damage on the Russian Military is a fact.
More KIA/WIA/destroyed kit, the better. Watching a well trained military destroy itself on the world stage is from what I would guess, a strategic goal

Putin has lost this war. If the west lets Russia control a land bridge to Crimea, they are delaying the day till another invasion.
This war will go on till Putin wants to end it

Putin will try to sell it as a win but many Russians with this SM world will learn more of the truth.
How long it takes for facts to travel thru Russian society, no idea on that. Yet to be seen. But Internet, SM, Russia cannot close it all down as China can. Coming 6-12 months in Russia will be interesting

Then consider all the KIA/WIA and the morale in the Russian military just took a major cliff dive.

The ramifications of the war will reverberate for decades. Unless Russia heads towards Democracy, their economy is severely ****ed

I agree. Stopping the bolded from occurring, should be focus #1.

 

[JANFU]

That'll be interesting indeed. If they're anything like the previous ones........................

fast track would certainly provide a novelty.

True the last ones were useless.
If the Finnish Parliament approves, it will not take years for NATO to approve.
Finns in their history have had a few wars with Russia.
Now the Finnish people realize it

 

[maxparrish]

So, you got fracked?

Yep...strange story...have to PM for details.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Any peace deal will include the lifting of most sanctions.
The long term effects on the Russian economy have yet to be felt.
Putin can only do so much with the economy
Russians have a very clear memory of the deaths/injured from Afghanistan war

NATO/Western countries want to bleed the Russians in Ukraine

That said, western investment in Russia is toast. Chinese perhaps, who knows but western investment does not want Putin's stink on their brands
EU will build LNG plants, reducing imports from Russia, oil will also be replaced. Some of this will take many years. Building an LNG facility takes years.
But energy from green to nuke is being built and will expand across the EU

Who knows if Russia will have an October surprise?

Yeah, October surprise means something entirely diff in RU as you well know!
As regards nukes, I think this very well may stimulate attempts to look deeper into thorium nuclear.
Both China and India (and yes, even USA in the past) have all operated proof of concept generating plants powered by thorium
and in a new world where nuclear is so badly needed, this may finally be the chance thorium needs to get a serious look.
And yes, China is VERY serious about electric cars, perhaps more serious than the rest of the planet at this point.
So, the more China embraces electrics, the less they're going to want Russian oil as time goes by.

 

[maxparrish]

Remember the days of the Soviet Union, where they had to beg, borrow, and steal western technology, ignore international patent law, and even tried making Soviet blue jeans as a sub for Levi's?

Deje Vue all over again:



No way sanctions should be removed if Russia returns to type.