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Vladimir Putin’s Tough-Guy Act Is Getting Old
The recent and hated national pension reforms may be the beginning of the end of "Uncle Vova".
Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, he seemingly could do no wrong as far as most Russians were concerned. Now, however, his Teflon coating appears to be wearing thinner. This raises two important questions: What do Russians want and will they act to get it? Political scientist Mikhail Dmitriev and sociologist Sergey Belanovsky are two of the best people to ask these questions. Dmitriev and collaborators see an overwhelming desire for change, even if it’s risky and untested, which has superseded the long-dominant preference for stability. At the same time, Russians, who welcomed strongman Putin after a short fling with pluralism and democracy in the 1990s, no longer hunger for a strong hand. Despite years of intensive propaganda, the idea of Russia as a great power has only taken hold to a limited extent. In the focus groups, only 20 percent of the respondents agreed that Russia is a great power; 49 percent believe it’s somewhere between a great nation and a backward one. To these people, military might and a proud history don’t mean much without a prosperous, modern, socially oriented economy.
Putin’s post-Crimea propaganda offensive initially stunned Russians into agreement. But then, Dmitriev, Belanovsky and Nikolskaya found, discontent with Putin's domestic policies, which had been on the rise in 2013, gradually came back. This is a dismal situation for Putin, but only potentially. Dmitriev and Belanovsky are moderates, so-called “system liberals” who believe in reforming Russia from above. To them, the political status quo is not an obstacle to positive economic change. The resumption of popular discontent after several years of post-Crimea euphoria troubles them because it reminds them of Trumpism or the quest for simple solutions offered by European anti-immigrant parties. So the absence of charismatic populist leaders who could direct the muttering masses is something of a relief to them. On the other hand, that lack of leaders is a direct result of Putin’s successful campaign of political suppression, which, as recent history shows, cannot be effective forever in Russia. If Dmitriev and Belanovsky are right and Russians have given up on their leaders and those leaders’ ideological constructs, that’s a lot like the situation that preceded the implosion of the Soviet repressive state in the late 1980s. Leaders with the courage and the clout to challenge the totalitarian machine emerged eventually — and the enforcers found themselves either powerless or reluctant to move against them.
The recent and hated national pension reforms may be the beginning of the end of "Uncle Vova".